A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Not all seasons with the Sox, but check out these stretches:

 

ERA/WHIP

 

Koji

 

'11-'13

1.69/0.639

 

'10-'16

2.26/0.795

 

Pedro

 

'99-'02 (all with BOS)

2.07/0.871

(It's almost unheard of for a SP'er to have a WHIP under 0.900. Pedro averaged under that in a 4 season stretch!)

 

'97-'05

2.45/0.969

(Led MLB in /k/BB 4 times ,WHIP 6 of these 9 seasons and ERA in 5 of 9.)

 

Clemens "The Creep"

 

'86-'92 (All with BOS)

2.66/1.089

 

His last 4 in BOS (perhaps pre-steroid)

3.77/1.289

 

first 10 years after BOS (steroid boost)

3.17/1.185

[notin]

He only became the closer in June or July, that's why the save numbers weren't so high.

 

After injuries to the ever forgettable Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey to get him into the role...

[Maxbialystock]

By all means, enjoy his content. It was merely my opinion.

 

Nothing more sacred on talksox than your right to your opinion. And I sure hope we never see the day when we agree on most things. Boring.

[dgalehouse]

Koji's performance in 2013 was not an outlier by any means. He had a very fine career. A career ERA of 2.66. There are not a whole lot of pitchers , with any goodly amount of innings pitched , who have a better one.

[Nick]

Per OverTheMonster

 

Baseball America updated their top 100 list on Monday, and we saw two risers in the Red Sox system, plus one slight faller.

We’ll start with the positive side here and go to the top-ranked Red Sox prospect, which is still Triston Casas. This is not a surprise, but it is nice to see how high he is climbing. After coming in at number 38 in their last ranking, the first baseman has moved up to the top 30, coming in at #27. He’s ranked between Guardians infielder Tyler Freeman and Twins outfielder Trevor Larnach. Casas is just coming off a strong showing for Team USA at Olympic qualifying and he is hitting .328/.400/.552 in 75 plate appearances with Double-A Portland. The 21-year-old should return to the Sea Dogs this week.

 

Coming in right behind him is Casas’s Team USA teammate and the biggest Red Sox riser in Jarren Duran. As he continues to show his newfound power is indeed for real, it’s not surprising to see his stock rising in the way that it is. Duran comes in at number #29 after being 86th in the last iteration. He’s ranked between the aforementioned Larnach and Yankees phenom Jasson Dominguez. Duran also played well for Team USA, and he’s hitting .278/.366/.625 at Triple-A Worcester. Like Casas, he should be back playing affiliated ball this week.

 

On a more sour note, the Red Sox did have one guy fall a bit as well, with Jeter Downs falling from 59 to #69. He’s ranked between Cubs pitcher Brailyn Marquez and Cubs outfielder Brennen Davis. Downs was also away from the club playing for Colombia in Olympic qualifying, and he’s hitting .244/.337/.385 in Worcester so far this year.

Edited June 8, 2021 by Nick

[Maxbialystock]

I think it's been a mild improvement on what I expected. The big surprise to me isn't the pen, but how the starting rotation has been. I anticipated an injury for Eovaldi, ineffectiveness for Pivetta, an ok season for ERod, mediocrity from Perez and no idea what to think about Richards. The only let down has been ERod.

 

To me the stunner with the rotation is that we are almost at the midway point (3 weeks ahead), and Cora has been able to stick with 5 starters who average a tad over 5 innings per start. I see absolutely no ace on this team, but also no rotten egg, ERod's current ERA notwithstanding. He had a good April, a lousy May, and so far an almost hopeful June. If there are aces, their names are Whitlock and Barnes, and one can argue the most recent trend in MLB is to build a lockdown bullpen, which the Sox don't have.

[moonslav59]

To me the stunner with the rotation is that we are almost at the midway point (3 weeks ahead), and Cora has been able to stick with 5 starters who average a tad over 5 innings per start. I see absolutely no ace on this team, but also no rotten egg, ERod's current ERA notwithstanding. He had a good April, a lousy May, and so far an almost hopeful June. If there are aces, their names are Whitlock and Barnes, and one can argue the most recent trend in MLB is to build a lockdown bullpen, which the Sox don't have.

 

Well said, and the Sox are 6th in SP'er IP, this year- just 2 IP from 5th (HOU) and 6 IP from 3rd (SFG). Only LAD & OAK are significantly ahead of us.

 

We carried a 9 man pen for most of the season, so our pen should be as rested as any in MLB, given those facts.

 

We do have a "lock down" closer, and it seems like Ottavino is improving slowly as our top set-up man. Whitlock, Valdez and Sawamura seem to be stepping into higher leverage situations with greater success, recently, and Taylor has done a 180.

 

Fingers crossed, here.

[a700hitter]

Nothing more sacred on talksox than your right to your opinion. And I sure hope we never see the day when we agree on most things. Boring.

I agree with every aspect of this post.

[Nick]

Well said, and the Sox are 6th in SP'er IP, this year- just 2 IP from 5th (HOU) and 6 IP from 3rd (SFG). Only LAD & OAK are significantly ahead of us.

 

We carried a 9 man pen for most of the season, so our pen should be as rested as any in MLB, given those facts.

 

We do have a "lock down" closer, and it seems like Ottavino is improving slowly as our top set-up man. Whitlock, Valdez and Sawamura seem to be stepping into higher leverage situations with greater success, recently, and Taylor has done a 180.

 

Fingers crossed, here.

 

Keep an eye on Sawamura....I think we have him for 3 years with options.....bargain.

[moonslav59]

Nothing more sacred on talksox than your right to your opinion. And I sure hope we never see the day when we agree on most things. Boring.

 

If disagreeing is not boring, then the whole 700-moonslav dynamic is askew, since 700 called moonslav "boring."

[moonslav59]

Keep an eye on Sawamura....I think we have him for 3 years with options.....bargain.

 

Yes, 2 years with the 3rd year option. The only player, other than Kike, signed for 2 years guaranteed.

 

He started out looking good, then bad, and now kinda good again.

 

Maybe he just needed to settle in.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

one can argue the most recent trend in MLB is to build a lockdown bullpen, which the Sox don't have.

 

I think the trend is to "try" to build a lockdown pen, but not many ever make it through an entire season without burn-out from overuse or just inconsistencies that come from nightly expectations clashing with flawed humanity.

 

Remember the recent Yankees' Greatest Bullpen of All-Time that led them to the World Series zero times?

[moonslav59]

I think the trend is to "try" to build a lockdown pen, but not many ever make it through an entire season without burn-out from overuse or just inconsistencies that come from nightly expectations clashing with flawed humanity.

 

Remember the recent Yankees' Greatest Bullpen of All-Time that led them to the World Series zero times?

 

Does it go back to the time KC won without any real SP'ing?

 

People thought, hmm... maybe we can win with just defense, speed and a pen.

[Bellhorn04]

Does it go back to the time KC won without any real SP'ing?

 

People thought, hmm... maybe we can win with just defense, speed and a pen.

 

I think it might go back to 2011, when Texas and St. Louis were in the World Series, and both relied heavily on their pens. You can see it in the game logs for that World Series. I think Texas really stacked their pen at the deadline that year.

[dgalehouse]

Starting pitchers are not going deep in games any more. If you don't have a good closer and at least a couple of good set up men , you are going to blow games that you were on the verge of winning. That is not a good thing.

[moonslav59]

Some pen arms have done really well, lately.

 

OPS against

Last 7 days

.488 Sawamura

.489 DHern

.550 Barnes

.624 Ottavino

.661 Taylor

.682 Whitlock

 

Starters:

.491 Perez

.701 ERod

.740 Pivetta

.760 Eovaldi

.833 Richards

 

Last 14 days

.457 DHern

.503 Ottavino

.582 Sawamura

.504 Whitlock

.641 Barnes

 

Last 28 days

.472 Ottavino

.507 DHern

.546 Taylor

.626 Sawamura

.648 Barnes

.758 Whitlock

 

[oldtimer]

I wonder if spin rate of Houston pitchers is higher than expected?

[Hugh2]

Starting pitchers are not going deep in games any more. If you don't have a good closer and at least a couple of good set up men , you are going to blow games that you were on the verge of winning. That is not a good thing.

 

I did some research on this the other day. Gerrit Cole led the majors in innings pitched back in 2019, rewind 20 years Cole would have have ranked 22nd.

[Hugh2]

I wonder if spin rate of Houston pitchers is higher than expected?

 

Not as high as ours.

[Hugh2]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/04/sticky-stuff-is-the-new-steroids-daily-cover

 

Looks like the Sox are some of the largest beneficiaries of increased spin rate. Makes you wonder how many of these guys are junking up their balls, it would certainly explain the pitching staff shattering expectations.

 

If this is true, it could also mean the Sox staff stands to be hurt the most if the crack down on this and it sounds like they will start doing so any day now. Maybe I'm wrong, but if I'm not....makes one want to cash in now.

[moonslav59]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/06/04/sticky-stuff-is-the-new-steroids-daily-cover

 

Looks like the Sox are some of the largest beneficiaries of increased spin rate. Makes you wonder how many of these guys are junking up their balls, it would certainly explain the pitching staff shattering expectations.

 

If this is true, it could also mean the Sox staff stands to be hurt the most if the crack down on this and it sounds like they will start doing so any day now. Maybe I'm wrong, but if I'm not....makes one want to cash in now.

 

Not again!

[dgalehouse]

Whenever we talk about " cheating " in baseball , we need to remember one thing. Our guys are not too innocent to do anything like that either.

[moonslav59]

Whenever we talk about " cheating " in baseball , we need to remember one thing. Our guys are not too innocent to do anything like that either.

 

We know.

[oldtimer]

What should be done with Dalbec? He just seemed overmatched against most every pitcher we face. A homerun once every 2 weeks and nothing else isn't enough from a first baseman.

[moonslav59]

What should be done with Dalbec? He just seemed overmatched against most every pitcher we face. A homerun once every 2 weeks and nothing else isn't enough from a first baseman.

 

I've been his biggest supporter, and I think he needs to be sent to AAA to try and work out some issues.

 

Bring up Chavis.

 

Santana is the next on the hot seat.

[a700hitter]

Keep an eye on Sawamura....I think we have him for 3 years with options.....bargain.

He is 33 years old.

[Nick]

He is 33 years old.

 

The guy hits 96-97 with his fastball and 93 on a splitter. Not bad for a 33 year old.

[a700hitter]

The guy hits 96-97 with his fastball and 93 on a splitter. Not bad for a 33 year old.

That’s for sure, but does he have 3 plus years left where he can do that?

[oldtimer]

I've been his biggest supporter, and I think he needs to be sent to AAA to try and work out some issues.

 

Bring up Chavis.

 

Santana is the next on the hot seat.

 

chavis is the best bet for now.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s for sure, but does he have 3 plus years left where he can do that?

 

Hopefully this doesn't come across as racist, but some of these Japanese relievers have a long shelf life.