A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Hugh2]

But at the trade deadline of a playoff year in '19, Bloom and the second-place Rays traded Ryne Stanek -- a top reliever and their main opener -- for what turned out to be an upgrade in Nick Anderson.

 

I'm not even sure Stanek was pitching the 8th for the rays towards the middle of 2019. I don't think that's a fair comp to trading who might be the best closer in the game right now.

 

https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2019/7/31/20749198/marlins-rays-ryne-stanek-jesus-sanchez-trevor-richards-nick-anderson-trade

[Nick]

remember JDM has an opt out after this year, and with the season he's having one has to assume he will opt out.

 

If you spend big next offseason, you need to save some money for Bogaerts who will likely opt out after the 2022 season. That or you let him walk. I would also want to start thinking about locking up Devers.

 

Not According to Cot's Baseball

 

5 years/$110M (2018-22)

signed by Boston as a free agent 2/26/18

18:$23.75M, 19:$23.75M, 20:$23.75M, 21:$19.375M, 22:$19.375M

may opt out of contract after both 2019 ($2.5M buyout) and 2020 seasons (no buyout)

 

He's pretty much a DH and not sure if he'll get much more than that in open market. Possible get a longer term deal, if and only if he can opt out.

[Nick]

Kimbrel signed 3/42 2 years ago. More recently Liam Hendricks signs a 3/54 million deal.

 

I think if you want to keep Barnes you're looking at 3/60

 

I doubt it. I'll bet $100 on that!!!!

[Hugh2]

I doubt it. I'll bet $100 on that!!!!

 

Why would Barnes take close to 1/2 of what other closers are starting to get?

[Nick]

I also don't see Xander opting out.

 

Counting the opt year, 2026, he'll be leaving $80M, 4years on the table. How much more can he get?

 

Xander was signed as a 16 year old by the Sox. He's team captain. I just have the feeling he's a Sox lifer.

[Nick]

Why would Barnes take close to 1/2 of what other closers are starting to get?

 

$30M, 3 years maybe low, but I think 3/60 is too high. I'll take that bet.

[Hugh2]

Not According to Cot's Baseball

 

5 years/$110M (2018-22)

signed by Boston as a free agent 2/26/18

18:$23.75M, 19:$23.75M, 20:$23.75M, 21:$19.375M, 22:$19.375M

may opt out of contract after both 2019 ($2.5M buyout) and 2020 seasons (no buyout)

 

He's pretty much a DH and not sure if he'll get much more than that in open market. Possible get a longer term deal, if and only if he can opt out.

 

Unless something changed, he has opt outs.

 

 

 

Opt-out available after 2019, $2.5M buyout

Additional opt-out available after 2020, no buyout

Additional opt-out available after 2021

 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/j.d.-martinez-8690/

[Bellhorn04]

I also don't see Xander opting out.

 

Counting the opt year, 2026, he'll be leaving $80M, 4years on the table. How much more can he get?

 

Xander was signed as a 16 year old by the Sox. He's team captain. I just have the feeling he's a Sox lifer.

 

They might want to offer him a little bump on the 4/80 though.

[Hugh2]

$30M, 3 years maybe low, but I think 3/60 is too high. I'll take that bet.

 

3/60 is much closer than 3/30.

 

Hendricks is making 18 million a year. He signed that deal in his 30's, Barnes is in his prime. We also see the trajectory of salaries goes up every single year. We have every reason to believe Barnes would continue that trend. 3/60 is not too high of a projection.

 

It might be too high for the Sox, and some fans, but I'd be willing to bet someone out there would give Barnes that money.

[Hugh2]

Why do we always assume that these players are huge fans of the Red Sox just like us? yet history and precedent tells us Xander will opt out. Yeah, he might not, but odds are he's opting out.

[Hugh2]

Xander Bogaerts is in the conversation for the best player in the game. He's still in his 20's where's other guys with his level of talent are inking deals north of 300 million.

 

He might still be willing to give us a discount, but he's opting out.

[notin]

I also don't see Xander opting out.

 

Counting the opt year, 2026, he'll be leaving $80M, 4years on the table. How much more can he get?

 

Xander was signed as a 16 year old by the Sox. He's team captain. I just have the feeling he's a Sox lifer.

 

 

If Xander keeps this up, he’s opting out. If you were his agent, you wouldn’t advise him to?

 

But that’s all after next year, I believe. If his opt out was this year, I wander if he would amidst the great shortstop free agent class of 2021. There would be reasons to and reasons not to...

[Hugh2]

Among all MLB shortstops

 

RBIs 4th

AVG 1st

OBP 1st

SLG 1st

HR 5th

2B 1st

 

 

Defensive metrics put him middle of the pack for MLB ss. Xander is the best player at arguably the most premium offensive position. If Bogaerts doesn't opt out, it will be because he gets injured and starts sucking.

[Nick]

If Xander keeps this up, he’s opting out. If you were his agent, you wouldn’t advise him to?

 

But that’s all after next year, I believe. If his opt out was this year, I wander if he would amidst the great shortstop free agent class of 2021. There would be reasons to and reasons not to...

 

You first need to see what happens this winter based on how the teams are recovering from shortened 2020 season and limited fan capacity early in the years. Yankees, who probably needs the least money, just bumped the capacity to 50%.

 

Xander, as a shortstop will be 18 months older, or 30.

 

Wildcard in all of this Bloom's tolerance for higher, longer term deals.

 

Devers maybe a high priority than Xander. You can't have bunch of $30M players on the same team.

 

I thought that's how we got into trouble.

[Bellhorn04]

If Xander keeps this up, he’s opting out. If you were his agent, you wouldn’t advise him to?

 

OTOH, Xander did accept a below-market deal, IMO.

[Hugh2]

OTOH, Xander did accept a below-market deal, IMO.

 

I think there's a fair argument that Xander give the Red Sox another below-market deal, but he's still going to opt out for a better deal.

[Hugh2]

You first need to see what happens this winter based on how the teams are recovering from shortened 2020 season and limited fan capacity early in the years. Yankees, who probably needs the least money, just bumped the capacity to 50%.

 

Xander, as a shortstop will be 18 months older, or 30.

 

Wildcard in all of this Bloom's tolerance for higher, longer term deals.

 

Devers maybe a high priority than Xander. You can't have bunch of $30M players on the same team.

 

I thought that's how we got into trouble.

 

A lot of revenue comes from the branding, marketing, and tv deals. Many of these teams, especially the big market teams are flush with cash, and those are the teams you're competing with for a guy like Xander.

 

Maybe a year after Covid you don't have teams like the Seattle Mariners making that once a decade big splash competing for Bogaerts, but you still have everyone else.

[moonslav59]

X will likely opt out, unless the big FA SSs get less than him, this next off season.

 

JD may opt-out or get the Sox to extend him. He'll want longer security than just 1 more year with the Sox.

 

Barnes will likely get $19M+ x 3-4 years, assuming he continues.

 

Barnes may be traded no matter where we stand at the deadline. Bloom is not shy about trading top talent as a top contender. I get how Boston is different than Tampa, but Bloom ended up winning almost everyone of those deals.

 

Barnes might also be the type of guy that would re-sign with the Sox after being traded to the Padres at the deadline.

[Bellhorn04]

Barnes may be traded no matter where we stand at the deadline. Bloom is not shy about trading top talent as a top contender. I get how Boston is different than Tampa, but Bloom ended up winning almost everyone of those deals.

 

It would have to be a short-term win in this case, which seems very unlikely.

[harmony]

A lot of revenue comes from the branding, marketing, and tv deals. Many of these teams, especially the big market teams are flush with cash, and those are the teams you're competing with for a guy like Xander.

 

Maybe a year after Covid you don't have teams like the Seattle Mariners making that once a decade big splash competing for Bogaerts, but you still have everyone else.

The Seattle Mariners, whose Opening Day payroll went from $146 million in 2019 to $54 million in 2020 to $73 million this year, should have as much money as any team to spend in the offseason.

 

Whether the Mariners choose to spend is another issue.

[moonslav59]

It would have to be a short-term win in this case, which seems very unlikely.

 

Of course, if he's traded, it would be for a short term gain by whoever trades for him.

 

We'd get something very good for 2 months of Barnes. We did pretty good in our returns for Workman/Hembree, Mazza/Springs, Moreland and other deadline deals in the past.

 

Re-signing him may be very difficult after trading him, but it is not impossible, and there should be other closers on the market, too.

 

It's weird how, two months ago, nobody wanted Barnes to be our closer.

 

Now, he's "untouchable." LOL.

[Bellhorn04]

We'd get something very good for 2 months of Barnes. We did pretty good in our returns for Workman/Hembree, Mazza/Springs, Moreland and other deadline deals in the past.

 

Of course we'd get something good. But if we're in contention, getting something that doesn't help in 2021 just ain't gonna cut it.

[Bellhorn04]

It's weird how, two months ago, nobody wanted Barnes to be our closer.

 

Now, he's "untouchable." LOL.

 

That's not true at all. I think most people figured Barnes would be the closer or would get a good shot at it.

 

But he's never been this good before - nowhere near it, in fact.

[moonslav59]

That's not true at all. I think most people figured Barnes would be the closer or would get a good shot at it.

 

But he's never been this good before - nowhere near it, in fact.

 

Okay, I worded that wrongly.

 

Between Ottavino and Barnes, yes many wanted Barnes, but nobody was happy with Barnes as our closer.

 

Some didn't even think he was a good set up man, either.

[Bellhorn04]

Okay, I worded that wrongly.

 

Between Ottavino and Barnes, yes many wanted Barnes, but nobody was happy with Barnes as our closer.

 

Some didn't even think he was a good set up man, either.

 

Some skepticism was warranted by the numbers.

 

Last year he had a 4.30 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 2.21 K/BB.

 

Not much to get excited about there.

[moonslav59]

Some skepticism was warranted by the numbers.

 

Last year he had a 4.30 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 2.21 K/BB.

 

Not much to get excited about there.

 

I get why. I was one of those doubters, too.

 

One has to wonder, if this isn't just one of those outlier stretches a pitcher has in his career, and he will revert to his former self, at some point.

 

He's had a very nice K rate for several years, but he is in Uehara territory, this year.

 

OPS Against .399

ERA+ 13

WHIP 0.640

K/BB 8.80

 

Uehara in 2013:

.466 OPS Against

30 ERA+

.565 WHIP

11.22 K/BB

[Nick]

X will likely opt out, unless the big FA SSs get less than him, this next off season.

 

JD may opt-out or get the Sox to extend him. He'll want longer security than just 1 more year with the Sox.

 

Barnes will likely get $19M+ x 3-4 years, assuming he continues.

 

Barnes may be traded no matter where we stand at the deadline. Bloom is not shy about trading top talent as a top contender. I get how Boston is different than Tampa, but Bloom ended up winning almost everyone of those deals.

 

Barnes might also be the type of guy that would re-sign with the Sox after being traded to the Padres at the deadline.

 

I just don't see Bloom signing a reliever, no matter how good, to a 3-4 year deal for $19M per year. I just don't. He'll find a solution another way.

[moonslav59]

I just don't see Bloom signing a reliever, no matter how good, to a 3-4 year deal for $19M per year. I just don't. He'll find a solution another way.

 

That's not a bad strategy.

 

It then begs the question: why hold onto Barnes and get next to nothing, if you know you only have 2 more months of team control and are going to let him walk?

 

In contention or not.

[moonslav59]

The Rays traded their ace after a .667 winning season.

 

They're in first place, now.

 

We could be like the Rays, except spend 2 to 3 times what they spend, and spend it wisely.

 

I'm not saying this is something we do every year, or that we should trade a young ace as he enters prime, assuming we ever have one, but being practical is not a bad strategy.

[Larry Cook]

I have no problem trading Barnes next month, if we can get a solid starting pitching prospect for him,

 

Add that guy to (hopefully) two potential starters in this draft (rocker and bednar) and we cooking with gas!!!