A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Not the same.

 

In fact if Brewer went to Milwaukee, he would be the first player in MLB history whose last name matched his team moniker aka the the first player ever with his last name on both front and back of his jersey. Unless Robbie Ray gets dealt to Tampa first.

 

The closest to date would be when Gary Redus played in Cincinnati, as he had just one extra letter...

 

This is disappointing.

 

The NFL took the easy way by naming a team after Paul Brown. Then they had a pretty good player by that name.

[mvp 78]

I would also like to say kuddos to people who were noticing that the offense needed to some adjustments. Two thumbs down to people whose only response to that was "but they are winning so everything is fine."

[notin]

This is disappointing.

 

The NFL took the easy way by naming a team after Paul Brown. Then they had a pretty good player by that name.

 

Yeah, it's sad that the closest match is Gary Red(u)s.

[notin]

I would also like to say kuddos to people who were noticing that the offense needed to some adjustments. Two thumbs down to people whose only response to that was "but they are winning so everything is fine."

 

Of course, the only opinion that matters on that subject is Cora's...

[Hugh2]

I would also like to say kuddos to people who were noticing that the offense needed to some adjustments. Two thumbs down to people whose only response to that was "but they are winning so everything is fine."

 

I wouldn't say the offense is fine, but I think it's fair to say pitching is more of a concern.

[Hugh2]

The Red Sox are nearly dead last in baseball in drawing walks, with 144. Dodgers lead with 250. Yankees 226. Rays 224.

 

This is true, but I'm not that bothered by it because they're taking more swings and have more to show for it.

 

In all of MLB the Sox offense is 2nd in SLG% 4th in OPS and 6th in Runs scored.

 

So, while I might not be bothered by the overall product, I think the bottom of the lineup is very weak and not indicative of a team that could make a deep run in October. It would be nice to see more production in the bottom of the order.

[notin]

This is disappointing.

 

The NFL took the easy way by naming a team after Paul Brown. Then they had a pretty good player by that name.

 

In fact, MLB has also never had a player whose last name was the same as the city he played for. Maybe if Daryl Boston had played for the Red Sox or Reggie Cleveland had pitched for the Guardians, then at least one player could have had the same name on both sides of the road jersey.

 

Now, the Cleveland Naps do sort of fall into the "Browns" category in that they were named after a player. But they went with the abbreviated first name...

[moonslav59]

I don't want to sound like I'm complaining about this team winning but it almost would make things easier if this team was not exceeding expectations up until now. If you don't seriously think you can compete, it's easier to let Dalbec and Franchy fly through the year and see if they can put it together. It would make the bullpen situation with Whitlock more manageable and we wouldn't have talk of rushing Casas and Duran. Although I think we can justify seeing Duran at some point this year no matter what, Casas is the guy who is a little further away.

 

An obvious place we can improve is 2B, and we could make a trade for Adam Frazier.

 

I think if we're being realistic about this year, then trading away top prospects for a rental arm is not a good decision. I'd rather bring in a guy who has at least another year of control. Not sure who that is, but be a fun thought experiment this weekend to look at who might be available during the trade deadline, which may be more clear in 4-6 weeks from now.

 

I think we can pick up a bat at the deadline.

 

It certainly would have been easier to give players like Cordero, Dalbec, Chavis and some kids a longer look, this season, had we not started off so well.

 

Maybe in a month or two, we'll be in that position, but as of now, we should try to stay in the race.

 

I like the Adam Frazier idea and suggested several Pittsburgh trades on the BTV site involving him and others (Taillon and/or Stallings). I might still trade Vaz, Ward and Chavis for Frazier, Stallings & Brault - something that might help now and even more going forward, despite Frazier having just 1 arb year left.

[Hugh2]

It certainly would have been easier to give players like Cordero, Dalbec, Chavis and some kids a longer look, this season, had we not started off so well.

 

Maybe in a month or two, we'll be in that position, but as of now, we should try to stay in the race.

 

I like the Adam Frazier idea and suggested several Pittsburgh trades on the BTV site involving him and others (Taillon and/or Stallings). I might still trade Vaz, Ward and Chavis for Frazier, Stallings & Brault - something that might help now and even more going forward, despite Frazier having just 1 arb year left.

 

Agreed, which is why it made all the sense in the world to send Franchy down and bring Santana up. They didn't sign Santana to sit in Worcester it was time. I feel like Santana isn't given enough talk. He hit for a .857 OPS in 2019 in his age 28 seasons in 511 plate appearances. That's a pretty decent sample size, and given his age, it's not unrealistic to look at him as a late bloomer. It's easy to look at his 2020 stat line and call it an aberration but he only had 63 PA's.

 

I think Dalbec is going to be streaky like JBJ was, less glove more power. You can live with that in your lineup if the rest is good, but not 3-4 guys. Santana closes the gap, maybe a guy like Frazier solidifies the bottom and makes the Sox the most dangerous offense in baseball.

[Nick]

Keeping it simple....

 

Upgrade needed?

 

DH No

C Maybe

1B Yes to 2021 version of Dalbec

2B Yes, only because I have no idea who our 2B is

SS No

3B No

RF Verdugo, NO

CF Kike, Probably

RF Renfroe, Maybe, Maybe Not

 

Staying positive, how about Richards and Pivetta? It would be cool to get the old version of Workman back after using him as bait to snare Pivetta.

Edited June 3, 2021 by Nick

[Hugh2]

Kike hasn't been great but he hasn't been that awful.

 

The league average line for a CF is .240/.315/.395 He's marginally worse than that, and his fielding and versatility bring value too. I wouldn't be opposed to an upgrade for Kike, but I don't think you can plug every hole especially on this team. Do we really want to trade the farm to solidify a WC spot?

 

I think we can make a big upgrade at 2B, or maybe we upgrade the OF and play Kike more at 2B.

 

For production, the two obviously places to upgrade for me are 1B/2B. Ironically our two best prospects are Casas/Downs at those positions respevtiely. I don't think they're ready (certainly not Casas) but it's not a stretch that one of those guys can plug a hole by years end. My money is on Downs.

[Maxbialystock]

I would also like to say kuddos to people who were noticing that the offense needed to some adjustments. Two thumbs down to people whose only response to that was "but they are winning so everything is fine."

 

Meh. Easiest thing in the world is to cry out for truth, justice, and fixing the lineup.

 

The Sox have to be one of the few AL teams who like playing in a NL park because they can send JD Martinez to the outfield and strengthen what essentially becomes an 8 man lineup (with the assumption that all pitchers are lousy hitters).

 

Cora, on the other hand, has to balance that notion with the other imperative to develop players who the FO thinks/thought were ready for this level.

 

A third factor this year is that the pitching seems especially good, and good pitching usually beats good hitting. For big chunks of this year the Sox led MLB in runs scored and team OPS, but are now 6th and 4th in those categories in part because @ Houston they have scored 4 runs in 3 games and their four best hitters--Verdugo, JDM, Bogie, and Devers--have combined for 6 weak-ass singles in those 3 games.

[moonslav59]

Keeping it simple....

 

Upgrade needed?

 

DH No

C Maybe

1B Yes to 2021 version of Dalbec

2B Yes, only because I have no idea who our 2B is

SS No

3B No

RF Verdugo, NO

CF Kike, Probably

RF Renfroe, Maybe, Maybe Not

 

Staying positive, how about Richards and Pivetta? It would be cool to get the old version of Workman back after using him as bait to snare Pivetta.

 

Our 2Bman is clearly Arroyo, but he was out hurt. He may not play well enough to keep it, and we have Kike, Marwin and Santana, who can all play 2B- plus Chavis and maybe Downs by September.

 

It is one area we could improve, but we won't be giving up any promising prospects for a rental 2Bman.

 

I'd give Chavis & Groome for Frazier, but I doubt Bloom would give even that much up for a player under control through just next year.

[moonslav59]

Kike hasn't been great but he hasn't been that awful.

 

The league average line for a CF is .240/.315/.395 He's marginally worse than that, and his fielding and versatility bring value too. I wouldn't be opposed to an upgrade for Kike, but I don't think you can plug every hole especially on this team. Do we really want to trade the farm to solidify a WC spot?

 

I think we can make a big upgrade at 2B, or maybe we upgrade the OF and play Kike more at 2B.

 

For production, the two obviously places to upgrade for me are 1B/2B. Ironically our two best prospects are Casas/Downs at those positions respevtiely. I don't think they're ready (certainly not Casas) but it's not a stretch that one of those guys can plug a hole by years end. My money is on Downs.

 

If Duran gets the call, Kike can play more 2B, as well.

 

Santana will be given a shot at beating out Dalbec for PAs v RHPs at 1B. If he fails, maybe they give Chavis one more look, before we add a 1Bman- maybe at the deadline.

[Hugh2]

If Duran gets the call, Kike can play more 2B, as well.

 

Santana will be given a shot at beating out Dalbec for PAs v RHPs at 1B. If he fails, maybe they give Chavis one more look, before we add a 1Bman- maybe at the deadline.

 

I'm not sure Duran can give us anything better than Kike at the plate. Maybe one day he could, but he could easily come up and not be very good at the plate and Kike has better defense. But, he might be able to make those adjustments this year and be able to give us something better than Kike down the road.

[Bellhorn04]

Meh. Easiest thing in the world is to cry out for truth, justice, and fixing the lineup.

 

Well said, Max, and funny too.

[Nick]

Kike hasn't been great but he hasn't been that awful.

 

The league average line for a CF is .240/.315/.395 He's marginally worse than that, and his fielding and versatility bring value too. I wouldn't be opposed to an upgrade for Kike, but I don't think you can plug every hole especially on this team. Do we really want to trade the farm to solidify a WC spot?

 

I think we can make a big upgrade at 2B, or maybe we upgrade the OF and play Kike more at 2B.

 

For production, the two obviously places to upgrade for me are 1B/2B. Ironically our two best prospects are Casas/Downs at those positions respevtiely. I don't think they're ready (certainly not Casas) but it's not a stretch that one of those guys can plug a hole by years end. My money is on Downs.

 

I don't have much issue with Kike playing. As Moon has said frequently he is what he is...

[Nick]

Meh. Easiest thing in the world is to cry out for truth, justice, and fixing the lineup.

 

The Sox have to be one of the few AL teams who like playing in a NL park because they can send JD Martinez to the outfield and strengthen what essentially becomes an 8 man lineup (with the assumption that all pitchers are lousy hitters).

 

Cora, on the other hand, has to balance that notion with the other imperative to develop players who the FO thinks/thought were ready for this level.

 

A third factor this year is that the pitching seems especially good, and good pitching usually beats good hitting. For big chunks of this year the Sox led MLB in runs scored and team OPS, but are now 6th and 4th in those categories in part because @ Houston they have scored 4 runs in 3 games and their four best hitters--Verdugo, JDM, Bogie, and Devers--have combined for 6 weak-ass singles in those 3 games.

 

Is Houston still cheating? I just had to ask.....

[Hugh2]

Probably, lol.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure Duran can give us anything better than Kike at the plate. Maybe one day he could, but he could easily come up and not be very good at the plate and Kike has better defense. But, he might be able to make those adjustments this year and be able to give us something better than Kike down the road.

 

The plate comp would be Duran vs Arroyo not Kike. (Kike would play 2B.)

[moonslav59]

Is Houston still cheating? I just had to ask.....

 

Is everyone still cheating?

[Hugh2]

The plate comp would be Duran vs Arroyo not Kike. (Kike would play 2B.)

 

Right now, you could say Arroyo is an above-average hitting CFer but his defense is plus at 2nd. I'd take Arroyo over Kike at 2nd right now and definitely Marwin, Kike is effectively our Cfer.

 

Part of the problem is we have so many utlity/platoon/versatile type players it's hard to know who's what. I love those type of guys on my team, but not a bunch of them.

 

EDIT: you mean Arroyo replacing Arroyo with Duran but Kike moves to 2nd and Duran plays CF. Not sure Duran is quite ready but I suspect we are going to find out at some point this season. When that happens I think Verdugo moves to center and Duran moves to LF. He's not a great fielder, surprisingly for his speed.

Edited June 3, 2021 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[mvp 78]

Well said, Max, and funny too.

 

Of course it was "well said" because it agreed with your position. Interesting how that works.

 

Anyway, we were right to complain about the issues with the lineup. You guys were wrong to bury your heads in the sand.

[mvp 78]

Of course, the only opinion that matters on that subject is Cora's...

 

Close up shop guys! The discourse is over! No need to discuss anything because that's Cora's job!

[Maxbialystock]

Is Houston still cheating? I just had to ask.....

 

Target hit. I deserved that.

[Maxbialystock]

Close up shop guys! The discourse is over! No need to discuss anything because that's Cora's job!

 

Exactly right. Cora does what he does, but that should never inhibit discussion and proposed fixes--despite my earlier comment. In today's game thread, moonslav proposes a new and to me not very radical lineup which I think is an improvement.

 

That said, the hitting this year has been better than I expected even though the bottom of the order--and the very top--have been problematical.

 

My favorite whipping boy is Dalbec, who, however, has 5 dingers and 22 rbi's, including 3 that won a game. His OPS of .554, however, is execrable and he has the 2d most K's (55) on the team. However, his OPS last year (23 games) was .959 and he hit well at the AAA level. On the other hand, he hurts the club on defense.

 

We are all frustrated with the hitting in Houston, but should also note that our four best--JDM, Bogie, Devers, and Verdugo--are 6 (all singles) for 43 so far in this series.

 

So, by all means, cry out for a better lineup and even propose your own. But the numbers say that, at least against Houston, the real problem is their excellent pitching (so far).

Edited June 3, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[Sox75]

June is going to be a brutal make or break test as to whether this team gets exposed or proves themselves to be a legit contender in a very tough AL East division. I think if we weather June above .500, this team is a buy not sell.

 

I still think this team has 93 win potential, but not if we fall asleep as we have in the last 3 games with a legit Astros team.

[mvp 78]

Cora announced that Workman was called up. Brewer being optioned. This still creates and issue with the 40 man. They have not stated what they will do yet.

[moonslav59]

Cora announced that Workman was called up. Brewer being optioned. This still creates and issue with the 40 man. They have not stated what they will do yet.

 

I'm glad for Workman. This was where he did his best, and the Sox stuck by him for a long time.

 

DFA candidates might include:

 

Brandon Brennan (my guess)

Marcus Wilson (might want to wait until Duran is back from Olympics)

Brewer (doubtful)

 

or

 

move Bryan Mata to the 60 day IL and start the service time clock.

 

[mvp 78]

I'm glad for Workman. This was where he did his best, and the Sox stuck by him for a long time.

 

DFA candidates might include:

 

Brandon Brennan (my guess)

Marcus Wilson (might want to wait until Duran is back from Olympics)

Brewer (doubtful)

 

or

 

move Bryan Mata to the 60 day IL and start the service time clock.

 

 

They could still move Potts to the 60 day IL, I believe. That would make more sense than losing service time of a high upside guy like Mata.