A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

I have never understood the value of "power rankings" when we have the won-lost percentages and the standings. I'm serious. At the end of the season and two teams are tied for spot in the playoffs, MLB doesn't go to power rankings for the tiebreaker. They go by W-L records between the teams, within their division or league, etc.

 

Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing, and power rankings are silly.

 

They have no value whatsoever, other than as fodder for discussion.

[Nick]

To get to 90 wins which should be good enough for wild card this year, Sox need to be 18 games above .500. We're already at 9. Obviously you can go backwards just as easily. Winning the series will take care of won lost record.

 

Just not sure how realistic it is for for #2-#5 hitters to keep up the pace they're on. Vaz can help and hopefully Hernandez will help from the one spot.

 

Someone mentioned that Renfroe's lifetime average is around .230 so I'm not sure how much more we can expect from him. I know he's had good May thus far.

 

Cordero will be replaced, it maybe that Hernandez moves to center and Arroyo takes over the second base job. At that point all you need is a left fielder.

 

We can stay bit longer with Dalbec but if he doesn't improve, platooning maybe necessary.

 

If we get to the playoffs and Sale returns in good shape, then we got something. Our bullpen is still little shaky.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Nick

[oldtimer]

To get to 90 wins which should be good enough for wild card this year, Sox need to be 18 games above .500. We're already at 9. Obviously you can go backwards just as easily. Winning the series will take care of won lost record.

 

Just not sure how realistic it is for for #2-#5 hitters to keep up the pace they're on. Vaz can help and hopefully Hernandez will help from the one spot.

 

Someone mentioned that Renfroe's lifetime average is around .230 so I'm not sure how much more we can expect from him. I know he's had good May thus far.

 

Cordero will be replaced, it maybe that Hernandez moves to center and Arroyo takes over the second base job. At that point all you need is a left fielder.

 

We can stay bit longer with Dalbec but if he doesn't improve, platooning maybe necessary.

.

I agree, time to replace Codero. He had one good day and is heading right back into the slump. We also need to shore up the relief pitching, and Brice would be a person to move or DFA. We must have a prospect who could do better. Both moves should be made ASAP.

[moonslav59]

Renfroe has had a decent OPS, despite his low career BA. He has always done best vs LHPs, so we should try to maximize his chance at being successful by limiting his exposure to RHPs.

 

I'm fine with sending Cordero down, but I think he'll get another look, at some point, unless he sucks at AAA.

 

On the 2-5 hitters. None are really having outlier years. I'm not sure I would expect less from them, going forward.

 

JD is at 1.075. He hit 1.066 in 2017 and 1.031 in 2018. 2021 is not out of line with those years, and they weren't that long ago. His OPS from 2017-2019 was 1.007.

 

Bogey is at .985. That is also a career high, but he is just entering prime and had a .939 OPS in 2019.

 

Devers is at .951, and he too is getting into his prime years. He hit .916 in 2019. Not far above that.

 

Verdugo hit better, last year (.844) than this year (.838). He his .827 from 2019-2020.

 

Now, one can say, it is very fortunate to have all 4 hitters above their career or recent numbers, but the rest of the Sox players are all below, so it's easy to say we are underachieving overall.

 

[Bellhorn04]

On the 2-5 hitters. None are really having outlier years. I'm not sure I would expect less from them, going forward.

 

JD is at 1.075. He hit 1.066 in 2017 and 1.031 in 2018. 2021 is not out of line with those years, and they weren't that long ago. His OPS from 2017-2019 was 1.007.

 

Bogey is at .985. That is also a career high, but he is just entering prime and had a .939 OPS in 2019.

 

Devers is at .951, and he too is getting into his prime years. He hit .916 in 2019. Not far above that.

 

Verdugo hit better, last year (.844) than this year (.838). He his .827 from 2019-2020.

 

Now, one can say, it is very fortunate to have all 4 hitters above their career or recent numbers, but the rest of the Sox players are all below, so it's easy to say we are underachieving overall.

 

 

Except we should be looking at OPS+, especially this year.

[moonslav59]

Except we should be looking at OPS+, especially this year.

 

OK. JD led the league in TB in 2018 and had an OPS+ of 173. It was 168 in 2017. It's 196, this year, which is a significant jump. I can see expecting him to drop, a bit. (He's 15% higher than 2018's OPS+)

 

Bogey is at 171, but like I said, he's in peak prime, now at age 28. He's been at 135, 140 and 131 the last 3 years. 171 is a significant uptick, but not really all that unexpected. Maybe he stays at .985 as the legue warms up, so his OPS+ drops some.

he's 22% higher than 2019.

 

Devers is still pre-prime, but he's fast approaching it, He was at 133 in 2018 and is at 161, now. I've been expecting a "monster year" from him, so to me, I'm expecting even better, at some point in the next 1-4 years.

He's 21% over 2018.

 

Verdugo is right in line with the bell curve towards prime. He's just 25.

93 OPS+ at age 22

114 at 23

126 at 24

133 at 25, this year.

His average rise in OPS+ actually has slowed, this year.

 

Now, what about all our other hitters under their career best or recent best OPS+ seasons?

Kike: 131 in 2015, 117 in 2018, 98 career> 100 this year

Renfroe: 120>103>80>77 this year.

Vazquez: 103>114>101 this year

Marwin: 146 (trashcan year), but also 3 other seasons over 100 and 2 more over 90> 86 in 2021.

Plawecki: 106>92>63>130>81 this year (92 from 2017-2020 combined)

Cordero: 99 career before this year: 26 in 2021!

Dalbec's career is too short, but still 152, last year and 59, this year.

 

Maybe 2-3 of our top 4 hitters drop down a bit, but maybe 3-4 of our bottom 7 return to norm on OPS+.

Edited May 10, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

1. Marwin 2B

2. Verdugo CF

3. JD DH

4. Bogey SS

5. Devers 3B

6. Vaz C

7. Renfroe RF

8. Cordero LF

9. Dalbec 1B

 

[moonslav59]

It would have been nice to have Marwin play OF instead of Cordero, but with Kike and Arroyo both out at the same time, it looks like 2B, it is.

 

I'd have seriously thought about Chavis at 2B and Marwin in LF with Cordero on the bench, but again, I'm fine with Cora's choices.

[notin]

It would have been nice to have Marwin play OF instead of Cordero, but with Kike and Arroyo both out at the same time, it looks like 2B, it is.

 

I'd have seriously thought about Chavis at 2B and Marwin in LF with Cordero on the bench, but again, I'm fine with Cora's choices.

 

As bad as Cordero has been, Chavis hasn’t been much better and had a significantly larger chance to prove himself...

[moonslav59]

As bad as Cordero has been, Chavis hasn’t been much better and had a significantly larger chance to prove himself...

 

Agreed:

 

Career OPS+

89 Chavis (546 career PAs)

85 Cordero (393 career PAs) It is 62 from 2019-2021 (140 PAs)

[notin]

Agreed:

 

Career OPS+

89 Chavis (546 career PAs)

85 Cordero (393 career PAs) It is 62 from 2019-2021 (140 PAs)

 

Chavis can get a little love here for being 11 months younger...

[Nick]

Ultimately, there are opportunities for younger/less experienced players to 'take over' a position here and there.

 

At some point we'll have to have discussion about how good is our starting rotation in comparison to top 10 teams. Do we have anyone better than say G. Cole of Yankees? We'll have time to sort it out.

[moonslav59]

Chavis can get a little love here for being 11 months younger...

 

I’m not a huge Chavis fan. I must have traded him a hundred times on BTV.

 

It’s more about lost faith in Cordero.

Edited May 11, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

To get to 90 wins which should be good enough for wild card this year, Sox need to be 18 games above .500. We're already at 9. Obviously you can go backwards just as easily. Winning the series will take care of won lost record.

 

Just not sure how realistic it is for for #2-#5 hitters to keep up the pace they're on. Vaz can help and hopefully Hernandez will help from the one spot.

 

Someone mentioned that Renfroe's lifetime average is around .230 so I'm not sure how much more we can expect from him. I know he's had good May thus far.

 

Cordero will be replaced, it maybe that Hernandez moves to center and Arroyo takes over the second base job. At that point all you need is a left fielder.

 

We can stay bit longer with Dalbec but if he doesn't improve, platooning maybe necessary.

 

If we get to the playoffs and Sale returns in good shape, then we got something. Our bullpen is still little shaky.

 

Who gave you right, the privilege, to inject some cautionary notes? I know the title of the thread is "a realistic view," but that's just moonslav's standard discussion ploy and not to be taken seriously when the Sox are on a winning streak.

 

Think spring, the darling buds of May, everything's coming up roses, and career years for some of our guys.

[Maxbialystock]

Ultimately, there are opportunities for younger/less experienced players to 'take over' a position here and there.

 

At some point we'll have to have discussion about how good is our starting rotation in comparison to top 10 teams. Do we have anyone better than say G. Cole of Yankees? We'll have time to sort it out.

 

Given my expectations that Eovaldi is due for a burnout or something, that ERod just got thru an entire missed season thanks heart problems from COVID 19, etc, I'm ecstatic about the rotation--except for the pressure their shortish starts put on the bullpen.

[Nick]

Given my expectations that Eovaldi is due for a burnout or something, that ERod just got thru an entire missed season thanks heart problems from COVID 19, etc, I'm ecstatic about the rotation--except for the pressure their shortish starts put on the bullpen.

 

Yeah they are doing great.

 

I was just getting greedy and ahead of myself. I think great starting pitching trumps offense. Especially in playoff series.

 

I'm a big fan of Eovaldi and I fully supported Sox extending him what with Porcello's contract expiring in a year later. But for a guy that throws hard, he really doesn't induce swing and miss with his fast ball, which tells me there's not much movement. He gets hit hard. It seems it's a coin flip with him, not sure what you're going to get out of him when he takes the mound.

 

As good as E Rod has been I have concerns about signing him to long term, big dollars deal when his 'throw' numbers are down. I get it that he's very consistent and have been good for us. Can he beat Cole?

 

This is where I'm with Moon. You sign a #1 guy and drop everyone else down one spot. Will we have a better option than E Rod come this November?

Edited May 10, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Given my expectations that Eovaldi is due for a burnout or something, that ERod just got thru an entire missed season thanks heart problems from COVID 19, etc, I'm ecstatic about the rotation--except for the pressure their shortish starts put on the bullpen.

 

Eovaldi's already done the "something." I'm hoping for a rebound, now.

[moonslav59]

Yeah they are doing great.

 

I was just getting greedy and ahead of myself. I think great starting pitching trumps offense. Especially in playoff series.

 

I'm a big fan of Eovaldi and I fully supported Sox extending him what with Porcello's contract expiring in a year later. But for a guy that throws hard, he really doesn't induce swing and miss with his fast ball, which tells me there's not much movement. He gets hit hard. It seems it's a coin flip with him, not sure what you're going to get out of him when he takes the mound.

 

As good as E Rod has been I have concerns about signing him to long term, big dollars deal when his 'throw' numbers are down. I get it that he's very consistent and have been good for us. Can he beat Cole?

 

This is where I'm with Moon. You sign a #1 guy and drop everyone else down one spot. Will we have a better option than E Rod come this November?

 

I'd like to see us sign ERod and someone as good or better, too.

 

Replacing ERod with an ace is barely an improvement.

 

We hardly ever lose with ERod on the mound.

[Noles_1335]

We should have a thread on just relief concerns... and the arms we should pursue! This team goes no where without some major pen upgrades!

[moonslav59]

Perez in his last 3 starts:

 

16.1 IP

15 Hits

3 BB

17 K

4 ER (2.20 ERA)

 

The team lost all 3 starts.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta last 5 starts:

 

25.2 IP

15 Hits

15 BB

24 Ks

9 ER (3.16 ERA)

 

The team is 4-1 in his last 5 starts.

[moonslav59]

Richards last 6 starts:

 

33.2 IP

30 Hits

13 BB

32 K

12 ER (3.21 ERA)

 

The team went 3-3 in those 6 starts.

 

[moonslav59]

The team is 5-1 in ERod starts (3.82 ERA).

 

The team is 5-2 in Eovaldi's starts (4.62 ERA).

 

[Bellhorn04]

I have never understood the value of "power rankings" when we have the won-lost percentages and the standings. I'm serious. At the end of the season and two teams are tied for spot in the playoffs, MLB doesn't go to power rankings for the tiebreaker. They go by W-L records between the teams, within their division or league, etc.

 

Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing, and power rankings are silly.

 

FWIW, Baseball-Reference's current projections say the Red Sox only have a 23% chance of making the playoffs, while the Yankees are at 68%.

[moonslav59]

FWIW, Baseball-Reference's current projections say the Red Sox only have a 23% chance of making the playoffs, while the Yankees are at 68%.

 

When we get done with out May 31 to August 1st stretch, we may think 23% is rather high.

 

@HOU 4

@NYY 3

HOU 3

TOR 4

@ATL 2

@KC 3

@TB 3

NYY 3

KC 4

@OAK 3

@LAA 3

PHI 3

@NYY 4

@TOR3

NYY 4

TOR 4 (15 straight against these two!)

@TB 3

[mvp 78]

When we get done with out May 31 to August 1st stretch, we may think 23% is rather high.

 

@HOU 4

@NYY 3

HOU 3

TOR 4

@ATL 2

@KC 3

@TB 3

NYY 3

KC 4

@OAK 3

@LAA 3

PHI 3

@NYY 4

@TOR3

NYY 4

TOR 4 (15 straight against these two!)

@TB 3

 

I tend to think that all these other teams should be worried about our offense coming to light up their pitching. Cora will also have had time to fix his bullpen issues.

[notin]

We should have a thread on just relief concerns... and the arms we should pursue! This team goes no where without some major pen upgrades!

 

I'll start the bidding with Yimi Garcia...

[notin]

We should have a thread on just relief concerns... and the arms we should pursue! This team goes no where without some major pen upgrades!

 

Funny thing - Jeffrey Springs currently has a 17.0 K/BB along with a 2.87 ERA and 2.78 FIP. Did the Sox give up too soon? Should we take note of this with regards to Cordero and Dalbec?

[moonslav59]

Funny thing - Jeffrey Springs currently has a 17.0 K/BB along with a 2.87 ERA and 2.78 FIP. Did the Sox give up too soon? Should we take note of this with regards to Cordero and Dalbec?

 

It also makes me rethink how "bad" some of Bloom's gambles were last season. Maybe he chose wisely but was just off by a year on some of these guys.

 

Also, look what we got from the Rays for two guys I thought should be simply DFA'd.

[mvp 78]

Funny thing - Jeffrey Springs currently has a 17.0 K/BB along with a 2.87 ERA and 2.78 FIP. Did the Sox give up too soon? Should we take note of this with regards to Cordero and Dalbec?

 

They liked Springs last year and even had him close out some games. I didn't understand why they DFA'd Springs but kept Brice.