A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

I was all in on signing both Sale and Eovaldi, but also admit I wondered if less than 100% health was a reason why Sale would take a slight team "discount" (less than a Scherzer contract). I also hoped the latter was instead a show of loyalty to the franchise, like with Bogaerts. Silly Sox fan that I yam.

 

I'm hoping for the best from ERod: his full recovery from the scourge of the planet, a great year on the mound, and a longterm offer from Bloom. Questions: which of these three scenarios is the most likely and which is most unlikely? Are they all directly related? If ERod just feels ok and has just an ok season, will the Sox try a lowball offer?

 

I thought the Eovaldi deal was too large and 2 years too long, but I get the loyalty angle. However, extending players after just a great playoff showing rarely works in any sport.

 

My point on signing ERod was about extending him now or very soon- knowing he has health concerns. How is doing so much different that the Sale extension was?

[moonslav59]

Chris Sale is one of the great pitchers of this current era. He has been and will be I believe will once again that good. Now I realize that you are all right about the Red Sox group led by John Henry being absolutely financially strapped for cash. Clearly we have fallen off the cliff and into the chasm of penney pitch city but I still believe that signing him will prove to be money well spent. Oh wait, it already has been.

 

It "already has been?" The extension started in 2020.

[kenmeister]

For what it's worth, I was against the Sale extension, and I'm against extending E-Rod until he proves he's healthy. I'm for extending Devers - even if it turns out he can't cut it at 3rd, he'll move to 1st. Now that Sale is hopefully on the other side of his injury, I'm certainly rooting for him.

[notin]

I thought the Eovaldi deal was too large and 2 years too long, but I get the loyalty angle. However, extending players after just a great playoff showing rarely works in any sport.

 

My point on signing ERod was about extending him now or very soon- knowing he has health concerns. How is doing so much different that the Sale extension was?

Obviously I opened a Hornets’ nest with my thoughts that the Sale extension was curiously small. But the Eovaldi deal was just flat out bad even before DD started filling in the blanks on his Free Agent Contract Template. And you just know when he did, Clippit was freaking out. “You typed Nathan Eovaldi. Are you sure you didn’t mean Lance Lynn? Are you sure you didn’t mean Dallas Keuchel?”

 

 

Dombrowski would have been better off letting someone else sign him for less and then waiting patiently for that new team to get frustrated with him...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I thought the Eovaldi deal was too large and 2 years too long, but I get the loyalty angle. However, extending players after just a great playoff showing rarely works in any sport.

 

My point on signing ERod was about extending him now or very soon- knowing he has health concerns. How is doing so much different that the Sale extension was?

 

I think the uncertainty about longterm Covid effects are different from wear-and-tear arm injuries. The training and treatment of modern athletes is ever-evolving, but just look at how many times science and medicine has changed what is "known" about this virus in the past year.

[notin]

Chris Sale is one of the great pitchers of this current era. He has been and will be I believe will once again that good. Now I realize that you are all right about the Red Sox group led by John Henry being absolutely financially strapped for cash. Clearly we have fallen off the cliff and into the chasm of penney pitch city but I still believe that signing him will prove to be money well spent. Oh wait, it already has been.

 

None of which was the point.

 

MY thoughts the day Sale signed was "Why did he sign for so little?" This wasn't some JDM situaton where no one else was offering money on an open market. This was a guy with only his option year left signing a contract extension for probably what I thought was maybe 2/3 of what he would get in free agency (and what his lesser teammate at the time got from the Red Sox in free agency. And yes, I think Price is less of a pitcher than Sale.)

 

There are only 2 reasons.

 

1) He desperately wanted to stay in Boston to the point of giving up maybe $70 million or so. Of course, he still could have tested the market and still come back to Boston for more money and years. I have my doubts here, as these kind of discounts are rare, and Sale did hire an agent for a reason. Without never talking to either, I have my doubts that reason was to maintain the status quo for bargain basement pricing.

2) He did not think he was going to get a better deal if he waited. And the only reason to think that is he did not think he would make it through 2019...

[moonslav59]

I think the uncertainty about longterm Covid effects are different from wear-and-tear arm injuries. The training and treatment of modern athletes is ever-evolving, but just look at how many times science and medicine has changed what is "known" about this virus in the past year.

 

The concerns about Covid effects are different, but are they less concerning, especially from someone who had serious effects already?

 

There are several very concerning studies that show serious lingering effects to those hit hard by Covid.

 

Nobody knows for sure one way or the other, but ERod has never been nearly as good as Sale, and he only had one season (2019), where he seemed to master his high pitch count to IP ratio and gives us more than 138 IP in a season.

 

Sale was much better and maybe had much bigger health concerns, so do you extend ERod to the same contract given to Sale?

[jacksonianmarch]

Check out his 2013-2016 velocity...

 

That’s an erroneous assumption. He’s gained velo since he got to Boston and suddenly he lost it and there’s nothing to see here? You know how dumb that sounds?

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, I was against the Sale extension, and I'm against extending E-Rod until he proves he's healthy. I'm for extending Devers - even if it turns out he can't cut it at 3rd, he'll move to 1st. Now that Sale is hopefully on the other side of his injury, I'm certainly rooting for him.

 

I'm all for extending Devers- large and long.

 

I think ERod should be given a serious offer to extend, but I'm not sure even an offer like Sale got is called for.

 

I think Sale is going to prove a lot of doubters wrong. They guy is a fierce competitor. I know that doesn't help, if his arm is hanging by a thread, but many pitchers come back from the surgery he had and do well. I'm more than hopeful. I am confident he contributes in a big way going forward.

[notin]

That’s an erroneous assumption. He’s gained velo since he got to Boston and suddenly he lost it and there’s nothing to see here? You know how dumb that sounds?

 

Taillon has been down in velocity this whole spring. No comments about it?

 

Maybe Sale's loss in velocity was due to an injury that some folks suspect has been lingering since mid-2018...

[moonslav59]

That’s an erroneous assumption. He’s gained velo since he got to Boston and suddenly he lost it and there’s nothing to see here? You know how dumb that sounds?

 

Can you, for once, please address the point about Sale being very effective before his spike in velocity once he joined Boston, and why he cannot be as successful as he was with the CWS with the velocity he had then and you expect going forward?

 

He doesn't need 2018 velocity to be great. He proved that with the CWS.

 

Nobody is saying "There is nothing to see here." We are all concerned about Sale's health and future outlook. The loss of velocity is an issue, but how much did he lose, and what will it be after he returns?

Edited March 25, 2021 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm all for extending Devers- large and long.

 

I think ERod should be given a serious offer to extend, but I'm not sure even an offer like Sale got is called for.

 

I think Sale is going to prove a lot of doubters wrong. They guy is a fierce competitor. I know that doesn't help, if his arm is hanging by a thread, but many pitchers come back from the surgery he had and do well. I'm more than hopeful. I am confident he contributes in a big way going forward.

 

I don't doubt that Sale's elbow will be better, but the shoulder injury sapped his power and that hasnt been addressed. Maybe the extended layoff will heal that up. I am also a bit intrigued as to why he hasnt hit a mound yet. He is throwing off solid ground, but no mound work. He is behind Severino yet Sevy is expected back late summer. Not sure how Sale is gonna be ready for June if he hasnt even taken a mound yet.

 

When the fierce competitors' bodies fail it is excruciating to watch. I honestly hope Sale can come back to some semblance of usefulness for you guys for two reasons. A. I don't want Bloom to have another top 10 pick to shorten the cliff duration. B. I like Sale's fire and I don't like to see great players' bodies fail early in life.

[jacksonianmarch]

Can you, for once, please address the point about Sale being very effective before his spike in velocity once he joined Boston, and why he cannot be as successful as he was with the CWS with the velocity he had then and you expect going forward?

 

He doesn't need 2018 velocity to be great. He proved that with the CWS.

 

Take a look at his velocity charts and his production.

 

Sale's best 3 seasons had fastball velocities over 94. The rest were below that. I am not saying Sale is trash or garbage, but the guy I saw throwing in 2019 was trying to hump the ball up in velo and was not hitting spots and still couldnt get past 94 on average. The issue with Sale is less elbow and more shoulder. If the rest helps the shoulder then great. If he comes back with 92-93 mph heat, he will still be effective, but his CY level days will be behind him.

[moonslav59]

I don't doubt that Sale's elbow will be better, but the shoulder injury sapped his power and that hasnt been addressed. Maybe the extended layoff will heal that up. I am also a bit intrigued as to why he hasnt hit a mound yet. He is throwing off solid ground, but no mound work. He is behind Severino yet Sevy is expected back late summer. Not sure how Sale is gonna be ready for June if he hasnt even taken a mound yet.

 

When the fierce competitors' bodies fail it is excruciating to watch. I honestly hope Sale can come back to some semblance of usefulness for you guys for two reasons. A. I don't want Bloom to have another top 10 pick to shorten the cliff duration. B. I like Sale's fire and I don't like to see great players' bodies fail early in life.

 

Thanks for finally responding to the actual points being made.

 

I would still like some further response. For several posts you pointed out that Sale's velo being at 92-93, which is less than it was from 2017-2019, is a sign that he is toast or likely toast or he will likely never be what he used to be again. 92-93 was his velocity from 2013-2016, and he was a tremendous pitcher, then.

 

If he can come back to 92-93, why can't he be great again?

 

Look, I get the shoulder issue could force another extended down time or surgery. I get he may never be the same, but you seem so sure he can't be great at 92-93, and who knows, maybe he can get back to 94-95 after this surgery and extended rest to the shoulder.

[moonslav59]

Take a look at his velocity charts and his production.

 

Sale's best 3 seasons had fastball velocities over 94. The rest were below that. I am not saying Sale is trash or garbage, but the guy I saw throwing in 2019 was trying to hump the ball up in velo and was not hitting spots and still couldnt get past 94 on average. The issue with Sale is less elbow and more shoulder. If the rest helps the shoulder then great. If he comes back with 92-93 mph heat, he will still be effective, but his CY level days will be behind him.

 

I have studied the velo charts very deeply.

 

The guy finished in the top 6 CYA voting every year from 2012-2016 and ERA+ in 2014. He also pitched more innings per season from 2012-2016 than from 2017-2019. 1,016 IP from 2012-2016 is 203 per season. He had 371 IP from 2017-2018 or about 185 IP per season.

 

The 2012-2016 Sale was a tremendous pitcher.

 

Yes, his overall numbers were better with Boston before getting hurt, but reverting back to CWS numbers would still be great.

 

 

 

 

He lead the league in K/BB in 2015, K/9 in 2014 & 2015.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The concerns about Covid effects are different, but are they less concerning, especially from someone who had serious effects already?

 

There are several very concerning studies that show serious lingering effects to those hit hard by Covid.

 

Nobody knows for sure one way or the other, but ERod has never been nearly as good as Sale, and he only had one season (2019), where he seemed to master his high pitch count to IP ratio and gives us more than 138 IP in a season.

 

Sale was much better and maybe had much bigger health concerns, so do you extend ERod to the same contract given to Sale?

 

Five years for $145 million? ERod had one great year when he finished sixth in Cy Young voting. Sale finished in the top six in seven straight seasons...

 

ERod would have to have to win the Cy and probably the AL MVP to get a Sale offer... and there is no evidence that would come from the current Red Sox Chief Officer.

 

Like I posted yesterday, a good season and a good three-year offer are more likely in Boston... and that would be the first three-year offer or extension we would have heard about for current Sox players.

[Bellhorn04]

Obviously I opened a Hornets’ nest with my thoughts that the Sale extension was curiously small. But the Eovaldi deal was just flat out bad even before DD started filling in the blanks on his Free Agent Contract Template. And you just know when he did, Clippit was freaking out. “You typed Nathan Eovaldi. Are you sure you didn’t mean Lance Lynn? Are you sure you didn’t mean Dallas Keuchel?”

 

Dombrowski would have been better off letting someone else sign him for less and then waiting patiently for that new team to get frustrated with him...

 

I liked the Eovaldi signing at the time, and I'm not going to back off that now. He pitched at a pretty high level in the 2018 regular season as well as the postseason.

 

Heck, even Kimmi liked the signing, except she thought it was one year too long.

 

The guy has top shelf talent. Obviously the injury concerns are very real.

[notin]

I liked the Eovaldi signing at the time, and I'm not going to back off that now. He pitched at a pretty high level in the 2018 regular season as well as the postseason.

 

Heck, even Kimmi liked the signing, except she thought it was one year too long.

 

The guy has top shelf talent. Obviously the injury concerns are very real.

 

As I’ve said before, the talent was never the question...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I liked the Eovaldi signing at the time, and I'm not going to back off that now. He pitched at a pretty high level in the 2018 regular season as well as the postseason.

 

Heck, even Kimmi liked the signing, except she thought it was one year too long.

 

The guy has top shelf talent. Obviously the injury concerns are very real.

 

Boras just got McCullers five years for $85 mil, around the same $17 mil per that Nate got, except one more year. This only reinforces what may be the going rate for a pitcher who may be in demand. McCullers also has an injury history and only one All-Star year. He would've been the youngest good starter of next year's free agency crop, so Boras may know something about the market and next CBA...

[notin]

Five years for $145 million? ERod had one great year when he finished sixth in Cy Young voting. Sale finished in the top six in seven straight seasons...

.

 

Disagree. Sale is the wrong comp as, injured or not, he is underpaid.

 

Through age 27, ERod has a 113ERA+ and a 2.86 K/BB and 10.8 fWAR in 699 IP.

 

Through age 27, Patrick Corbin had a 104ERA+ and a 2.92 K/BB and 9.7fWAR in 745 IP.

 

Corbin was paid $140million over 6 years upon reaching free agency at an older age than ERod should. Someone will pay him that much...

[moonslav59]

Disagree. Sale is the wrong comp as, injured or not, he is underpaid.

 

Through age 27, ERod has a 113ERA+ and a 2.86 K/BB and 10.8 fWAR in 699 IP.

 

Through age 27, Patrick Corbin had a 104ERA+ and a 2.92 K/BB and 9.7fWAR in 745 IP.

 

Corbin was paid $140million over 6 years upon reaching free agency at an older age than ERod should. Someone will pay him that much...

 

That contract is similar to Sale’s.

 

The only similarity between Sale and ERod is the health issues.

[notin]

That contract is similar to Sale’s.

 

The only similarity between Sale and ERod is the health issues.

 

And Corbin had his share of health issues at one point as well...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

ERod wasn't known as durable even before the pandemic. Recurring knee injuries at a young age don't bode well for pro athletes.

 

... or humans, in general.

Edited March 25, 2021 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[Bellhorn04]

ERod wasn't known as durable even before the pandemic. Recurring knee injuries at a young age don't bode well for pro athletes.

 

... or humans, in general.

 

His Recency Effect is strongly favorable, though, with 203 innings in 2019.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

His Recency Effect is strongly favorable, though, with 203 innings in 2019.

 

Right, and Eovaldi was our ace last summer. We've now got both our top winners returning from '19 and '20!

[moonslav59]

[/b]1373711]And Corbin had his share of health issues at one point as well...

 

I agree Corbin is a much better comp, but I was just curious why many want to extend ERod (me too) but many hated the Sale deal.

[mvp 78]

There were no big SP deals this offseason, so it's hard to gauge what his market would be right now.

 

3/45?

 

He's got a higher ceiling than that. My guess is he'd want to bet on himself and reach FA this offseason.

 

Sox should hold onto him and deal him at the deadline.

[notin]

I agree Corbin is a much better comp, but I was just curious why many want to extend ERod (me too) but many hated the Sale deal.

 

I liked the Sale deal, but I had my worries...

[jacksonianmarch]

That contract is similar to Sale’s.

 

The only similarity between Sale and ERod is the health issues.

 

It’s one year longer and $5 mil shorter. Not remotely close

[Bellhorn04]

It’s one year longer and $5 mil shorter. Not remotely close

 

Sale's deferred money knocked the present value down to 128 mill. That makes it pretty similar.