A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Prospecting is an in exact science. Montero was the top prospect in baseball, so there’s no shame in thinking he’d be better than he was. Although Cash did sell high on him, now didn’t he?

 

I do not think Durran ends up as a big league starter. He’s not a good defender at this juncture, so you can’t say he offsets his offensive inefficiencies with his glove. His power is nil right now. He doesn’t work counts or take walks and also K’s more than a slap hitter should. So he is a BABIP dependent hitter with limited defensive prowess and doesn’t walk enough. Can’t steal 1b.

 

Downs I like. Downs, I also surmise, will spend most of not all of 21 in the minors. He saw a handful of games at AA in 19 and is only 22 years old. But I love the package. Power is there, eye is there, contact is above average, reasonable speed with SB instincts, and soft hands. He’s a real prospect, not like Durran who seems to be a hyped up pretender, IMO. In order for Downs to come up, the Sox would need to either have an injury to Bogaerts or no production at all from Marwin, Chavis and Kike. If it gets that far down the line, then you’ve lost some games due to that lack of production

 

Duran actually does "steal 1B." His speed gets him many more IF hits than almost anyone else. His speed also makes him close to an average defender in CF, IMO, but I'm no expert on where his defense is at, this moment.

 

I have not been big on Duran hype, and I do not think he is a lock to be a plus CF'er in MLB, especially in 2021, but there is certainly a chance he is an overall plus, right now.

 

If Cordero comes through, we don't need Duran, this year. If he doesn't we can use Chavis in LF, and maybe Renfroe and Chavis's offense can outweigh the ,losses on defense.

 

We have multiple ways to make the OF a plus, including using Kiki in CF.

[notin]

We all know this 2021 payroll is tied up with a lot of dead money of players no longer here or currently unavailable... and that "owing" isn't quite the same as "spending". But such limitations are probably the reason the Sox opted for -- and these are just examples that don't necessarily correlate -- Richards over Odorizzi, Renfroe over Rosario, Marwin over Semien, Ottavino (really German) over Hand, etc, etc.

 

I'm not a pessimist, but you'd have to be quite an optimist to think nothing has changed in the way this franchise is doing business going forward... not when we haven't heard one peep out of the principal owner in over a year.

 

Let’s not pretend there is no relationship between owing and spending. The bottom line is the Sox - even after two years of not spending - still have one of the highest payrolls in MLB.

 

Now maybe Bloom will never get the greenlight to exceed the tax limit. But even that is not the same as saying they’ll never spend. It’s not that difficult to compile a team of 40 players making a total of $206 million, especially if half of them are pre-arbitration or making MiLB money...

[moonslav59]

Duran and Downs fill specific holes in this lineup. When they are ready, the team will be better off for it.

 

You can say you don’t think much of them, but it just reminds me that Salty WAS better than Jesus Montero no matter how much you argued otherwise.

 

We also have Dalbec, who is not being "promoted," but will play way more than he did in 2020 (pro-rated), and guys like Seabold & Houck, who may not be "studs" but can fill key roles.

[moonslav59]

But the pen does seem like a weak point. My hope is that DHern turns out to be great.

 

The pen is also the easiest area to improve at the deadline.

 

If we are in the race, we can improve areas we need help.

[jacksonianmarch]

Duran actually does "steal 1B." His speed gets him many more IF hits than almost anyone else. His speed also makes him close to an average defender in CF, IMO, but I'm no expert on where his defense is at, this moment.

 

I have not been big on Duran hype, and I do not think he is a lock to be a plus CF'er in MLB, especially in 2021, but there is certainly a chance he is an overall plus, right now.

 

If Cordero comes through, we don't need Duran, this year. If he doesn't we can use Chavis in LF, and maybe Renfroe and Chavis's offense can outweigh the ,losses on defense.

 

We have multiple ways to make the OF a plus, including using Kiki in CF.

 

Did you just insinuate that Cordero, Renfroe, and Verdugo could be a “plus” outfield or that you could get a plus outfield with Kike out there? You talking defense or overall? Cause Renfroe has had one season where he’s been good offensively, Cordero has had zero, and Kike can barely hit.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No one is pretending the Sox still wouldn't have a high payroll just with names they owe money to from pre-Bloom... just as no one is pretending that the next three-year contract inked by a new player or an extended core guy will be Bloom's first. And good point about assembling a roster of pre-arb MLBers -- it's been working for Moneyball teams for a long time.

[moonslav59]

Prospecting is an in exact science...

 

What about the "prospecting" that shows the Sox rotation tied for 15th and just 1.0 away from 11th and a pen rated 14th and just 1.0 away from 8th? (fangraphs)

 

Overall, we are "prospected" 14th, and yes, we play a tough schedule, but projecting wins in the 70's is a bit more wishful than factual. The Sox are about 2,0 WAR away from 10th place- average of above average. (We are also 2.0 away from 15th.)

[moonslav59]

If you sign ERod to an extension now, it’ll be market rate. Bloom isn’t going to lock him up at market rate without seeing how he does this year post myocarditis. If he’s on the team and healthy at the deadline, you deal him and just tell him before hand that you’ll see him on the open market. Pull a Chapman with the Yanks. Got us Gleyber

 

"Market rate" includes health concerns. What would ERod have gotten as a FA, this winter. If GMs listened to you and your armchair prognosis, he'd get way less than he would have pre-COVID.

[mvp 78]

Did you just insinuate that Cordero, Renfroe, and Verdugo could be a “plus” outfield or that you could get a plus outfield with Kike out there? You talking defense or overall? Cause Renfroe has had one season where he’s been good offensively, Cordero has had zero, and Kike can barely hit.

 

What's your definition of "good offensively?" Also, moon did say "IF" Cordero comes through. He has the skillset to be an above average outfielder, he just hasn't stayed healthy.

 

Verdugo should be one of the best OFers in the league as he was last year.

 

Renfroe is just a platoon guy. That's about it.

 

The team is really missing that 4th OFer that would be the everyday CFer while Verdugo is in RF and Cordero/Renfroe share LF.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure it's a "weak" point. I think it'll be average. The rotation should be about average too. The offense will be easily top 10 if not top 5.

 

Agreed, and fangraphs places both the rotation and pen about average of slightly better than average. Our defense is weak, but I assume that is part ofr our pitcher's projected numbers.

 

Our offense is top 5 or 6, although fangraphs rates our batting at 11th or 12th.

[moonslav59]

The pen was one of the many weak parts in 2020, but mainly weakened by the weakest part: the starting notation. If the starters can improve to mediocre, the pen could be above-average.

 

This is so true.

 

Even in 2019, many blamed the pen, when the starters were clearly at fault for the vast majority of our losses. I actually presented a game by game analysis that showed the starters lost way more games for us than the pen, and that didn'y even factor in the fact that starters not going even 3-4 innings taxes the pen beyond reasonability.

[moonslav59]

Surprise contenders often seem to "discover" a young pitcher by mid-season who becomes a major contributor and infuses hope. Who will be that guy in Boston? Can we even identify a candidate on the farm -- especially, now that Mata is out?

 

Can the Sox not draft Rocker or Leiter #4 if either is still on the board in July? We know how low the odds are for using first-round picks on pitchers, but opportunities are rare for adding mound talent with legitimate high-upside to a system. By all accounts the Vandy pitchers are exceptional; it's not like media outlets were drooling over who would get Trey Ball a decade ago.

 

Tampa has the Number One ranked farm right now, and a lot is based on arms; it's also a caution against predicting the Sox to win more than the Rays (even without Snell).

 

Could Houck be "that guy?" Maybe Seabold?

 

How about someone who is not a surprise young guys but rather Pivetta or just one of our injury prone starters actually giving us 180 IP (like Eovaldi or Richards)?

[mvp 78]

Could Houck be "that guy?" Maybe Seabold?

 

How about someone who is not a surprise young guys but rather Pivetta or just one of our injury prone starters actually giving us 180 IP (like Eovaldi or Richards)?

 

I have no confidence in Pivetta. Houck has the highest ceiling of the bunch, but I think is most likely to just be a bullpen arm at some point. I think Seabold could be a solid #4 in the rotation, but I don't think he'd ever peak much higher than that (probably has the highest floor of those 3 guys).

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not a pessimist, but you'd have to be quite an optimist to think nothing has changed in the way this franchise is doing business going forward... not when we haven't heard one peep out of the principal owner in over a year.

 

Owners don't have to peep. They just have to sign.

 

Henry has never been the most loquacious fellow. And it doesn't help that most everything he has said about players or payroll has been turned against him somehow.

[Bellhorn04]

A heathy Sale was probably looking at a Scherzer contract...

 

I do like the SID acronym.

[moonslav59]

We all know this 2021 payroll is tied up with a lot of dead money of players no longer here or currently unavailable... and that "owing" isn't quite the same as "spending". But such limitations are probably the reason the Sox opted for -- and these are just examples that don't necessarily correlate -- Richards over Odorizzi, Renfroe over Rosario, Marwin over Semien, Ottavino (really German) over Hand, etc, etc.

 

I'm not a pessimist, but you'd have to be quite an optimist to think nothing has changed in the way this franchise is doing business going forward... not when we haven't heard one peep out of the principal owner in over a year.

 

We have re-set several times before, sometimes for 2 years in a row, so what makes you think this time is different?

 

I truly believe we will go over the tax line by a significant amount next winter or the one after. Henry and Bloom are waiting until the foundation is ready for a serious competitive team to spend large and long again.

 

We spent a lot, this winter, but not large on any one player and not long on anyone. That, to me, was an excellent strategy considering where this team was at the end of 2020.

 

$10M x 1 Richards

$8.9M x 1 Ottavino (German)

$7.0M x 2 Hernandez

$5.0M x 1 Perez

$3.1M x 1 Renfroe

$3.0M x 1 Gonzalez

$2.1M x 1 Andriese

$1.5M x 2 Sawamura

 

That's over $40M spent on additional 2021 contracts. (We lost JBJ & Beni.)

 

We had a lot of holes to fill, this winter, and not just on the 26 man roster. We weren't 1-2 big time players away from being strong contenders.

 

Had we signed Bauer and Springer and left 6+ holes open, we'd be no better off than we are, now.

 

Bloom has remade the 40 man roster that was horrific from the 30-40 slots, last year.

 

We now have depth and promising young players at our most high need areas:

 

P: Houck, Seabold, Mata (IL), DHern, Ward, Song, Groome, Bello and more

2B: Downs

CF: Duran

Casas is not really filling a big hole, for now, but when JD leaves, we'll have Devers, Dalbec & Casas to play 1B, 3B & DH.

 

We also have Jimenez, who I rank above Duran, and J Rosario as OF hopes.

Rolando Hernandez and Wong as catchers of the future.

Potts & Arauz as IF infusions.

 

Look at all the players Bloom has added and not just the ones we've lost (Betts, JBJ, Beni- maybe Price & Moreland- are the only ones that are still promising future production):

 

Verdugo

Kike Hernandez

Richards

Ottavino

Renfroe

Pivetta

Perez

Andriese

Cordero

Sawamura

Seabold

Marwin G

Arroyo

Valdez

Arauz

Plawecki

R Hernandez

Wong

Whitlock

 

Even more significant are the non 40 man roster additions:

Downs

Santana

Munoz

Gossett

Puello

Potts

Rosario

C Hermann

J Wallace

German

Winckowski

Politi

Koss

plus a bunch of PTBNL from KC and NYM (Beni trade)

 

Draftees:

Yorke

Jordan

Drohan

add 2021 picks

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Could Houck be "that guy?" Maybe Seabold?

 

How about someone who is not a surprise young guys but rather Pivetta or just one of our injury prone starters actually giving us 180 IP (like Eovaldi or Richards)?

 

It would be cool if it was Whitlock. This feels like we back listening to Bangladesh: "Awaiting on You All"...

[moonslav59]

Did you just insinuate that Cordero, Renfroe, and Verdugo could be a “plus” outfield or that you could get a plus outfield with Kike out there? You talking defense or overall? Cause Renfroe has had one season where he’s been good offensively, Cordero has had zero, and Kike can barely hit.

 

With Kike in CF, Verdug in RF and Renfore/Cordero in LF, the OF is a slight plus on defense but not on offense.

 

With Cordero playing well and often (not likely) our OF could be average or better on offense but not defense. Cordero has huge upside, and you know it. I never said it will be plus- just "could."

[moonslav59]

No one is pretending the Sox still wouldn't have a high payroll just with names they owe money to from pre-Bloom... just as no one is pretending that the next three-year contract inked by a new player or an extended core guy will be Bloom's first. And good point about assembling a roster of pre-arb MLBers -- it's been working for Moneyball teams for a long time.

 

Money paid to players no longer on the Sox (lux tax):

 

$16M x 2 Price

$13.8 x 1 Pedey

$2.8M x 1 Beni

 

We get $1.8M from the Yanks for Ottavino

 

Total: about $31M for 2021 but down to $16M for 2022 and zero for 2023.

[moonslav59]

A heathy Sale was probably looking at a Scherzer contract...

 

Exactly.

[moonslav59]

I have no confidence in Pivetta. Houck has the highest ceiling of the bunch, but I think is most likely to just be a bullpen arm at some point. I think Seabold could be a solid #4 in the rotation, but I don't think he'd ever peak much higher than that (probably has the highest floor of those 3 guys).

 

I actually like Pivetta and rank him above Perez as our 4th starter before Sale returns.

 

I do think Houck and Seabold can pass him, this year, but it is no given.

[moonslav59]

It would be cool if it was Whitlock. This feels like we back listening to Bangladesh: "Awaiting on You All"...

 

Post of the morning.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"Had we signed Bauer... we'd be no better off than we are, now."

 

Maybe not "now", but we'd be better going forward -- and I'm not a Bauer guy. But having an ace to lead a staff, even a rebuilding staff, is invaluable.

 

Despite all the vaunted pitching potential on the Yankees, would any of their fans honestly think that they were going to finally win another World Series if they didn't have Cole?

 

Sure, there are rare examples like the '15 Royals, but not on Red Sox teams that won anything in the past half-century. The Impossible Dream had Lonborg, the 70s had Tiant, the 80s had Clemens and Hurst... then came Pedro and Schilling, Beckett and Lester, Sale... I never considered Lackey or Price aces in Boston -- maybe Porcello was in his Cy Young year -- though I thought Eovaldi had the stuff to be one. We're all hoping for the best for ERod, but who knows if he's even here by the time the Sox contend again.

[Bellhorn04]

If they just let ERod walk, that would be rather disappointing.

[mvp 78]

With Kike in CF, Verdug in RF and Renfore/Cordero in LF, the OF is a slight plus on defense but not on offense.

 

With Cordero playing well and often (not likely) our OF could be average or better on offense but not defense. Cordero has huge upside, and you know it. I never said it will be plus- just "could."

 

Has Kiké played any CF this ST? Everytime I turn it on, Verdugo is there.

[mvp 78]

Money paid to players no longer on the Sox (lux tax):

 

$16M x 2 Price

$13.8 x 1 Pedey

$2.8M x 1 Beni

 

We get $1.8M from the Yanks for Ottavino

 

Total: about $31M for 2021 but down to $16M for 2022 and zero for 2023.

 

Training wheels better be off in 2023.

[mvp 78]

I actually like Pivetta and rank him above Perez as our 4th starter before Sale returns.

 

I do think Houck and Seabold can pass him, this year, but it is no given.

 

If Pivetta can pitch like 2018, he's ahead of Perez. Otherwise, he's back of the pack IMO.

[mvp 78]

If they just let ERod walk, that would be rather disappointing.

 

Dreaming about that sweet QO pick!

[moonslav59]

What's your definition of "good offensively?" Also, moon did say "IF" Cordero comes through. He has the skillset to be an above average outfielder, he just hasn't stayed healthy.

 

Verdugo should be one of the best OFers in the league as he was last year.

 

Renfroe is just a platoon guy. That's about it.

 

The team is really missing that 4th OFer that would be the everyday CFer while Verdugo is in RF and Cordero/Renfroe share LF.

 

An outside surprise could come from Chavis playing LF and raking.

 

Look, I know my use of the word "could" involves some stretches, but we do have multiple choices to put together a decent OF.

 

Jacko mentions 0-1 good seasons by Renfroe & Cordero as proof our OF sucks, but when has that been the criteria?

 

Clint Frazier has yet to have 250+ PAs in the bigs, but is being counted on by Jacko to do well. Aaron Hicks had 2 good years back in '17 and '18, and that makes him oh-so-special.

 

An optimistic view of the Sox OF:

 

Verdugo: 2 seasons over .800 and .827 in his last 598 PAs (age 24)

Renfroe (29): has had one season over .800 and 2 other decent seasons (.778 and .751). Long stretch -17 to 19 of hitting .777 in 1414 PAs.

Kike (29): meets Jacko's criteria of having 2 good seasons (.836 in 2015 & .806 in 2018). He's hit .742 from 2015-2019, which is not bad for a CF'er. He's a plus on defense at CF.

Cordero (just 22 for God's sake) and has hit .754 in the last 3 years (216 PAs) and .925 in AAA over 517 PAs

Marwin (32) had the one big trash can year (.907) but was not all that bad from 2018-2019 (.734).

Chavis, Munoz & Duran are the big unknowns, but they all add some hopes.

 

[moonslav59]

"Had we signed Bauer... we'd be no better off than we are, now."

 

Maybe not "now", but we'd be better going forward -- and I'm not a Bauer guy. But having an ace to lead a staff, even a rebuilding staff, is invaluable.

 

Despite all the vaunted pitching potential on the Yankees, would any of their fans honestly think that they were going to finally win another World Series if they didn't have Cole?

 

Sure, there are rare examples like the '15 Royals, but not on Red Sox teams that won anything in the past half-century. The Impossible Dream had Lonborg, the 70s had Tiant, the 80s had Clemens and Hurst... then came Pedro and Schilling, Beckett and Lester, Sale... I never considered Lackey or Price aces in Boston -- maybe Porcello was in his Cy Young year -- though I thought Eovaldi had the stuff to be one. We're all hoping for the best for ERod, but who knows if he's even here by the time the Sox contend again.

 

The point is, most the $40M we spent this year goes away after 2021, but many of the holes the 8 guys we added will not be holes in 2022, because we can expect some help from a certain percent of players like Duran, Downs, Seabold, Pivetta, Dalbec, Casas and other players acquired with 2+ years of team control (kiki with 2 and others with options).

 

We spend large next winter and it has more impact.