A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Net loss of one pitcher? That’s absolutely idiotic. Paxton gave us nothing. Severino is going to come back. We lost Happ and Tanaka, replaced them with Kluber, Taillon and at least a half season of Sevy. I’ll take that trade

 

I'd take that trade, too, but it certainly is not a given, and that wasn't my point, anyway.

 

I was talking about the Yankee team from 2018-2020, who you added and who you lost.

 

The young players coming up should certainly help you, and likely more than the amount you lost with Paxton,Happ and Ottavino- certainly if just looking at 2020.

 

Losing Tanaka is huge, and you know it.

 

Kluber and/or Taillon could easily make up for his loss, but maybe not.

 

Sevy's return could be a big plus, or he could need more time to get back to norm of have a setback.

 

I'm not saying your outlook is not very good. I project you win the division, but it is not a lock. You do seem yo have more depth than recent years, but almost all of it is speculative to highly speculative, and when it comes to speculation, you always seem very rosy with Yankee players and very pessimistic with similar situated Sox players.

[moonslav59]

Ottavino sucked last year. You have to also see the added value of having kids growing into bigger roles. Loaisiga, Nelson, King, eventually Schmidt and a slew of other high velocity relievers (or starters turned relievers) are going to spend time in our pen.

 

You seem very certain your kids will deliver.

 

Maybe you will be right.

[moonslav59]

There's a pretty good chance that either Kluber or Taillon gives the Yankees nothing this year, as well...

 

The Yankees have been the IL Poster Boys the last two years.

 

I don't think any other team has more players with serious injury histories, especially recently, than the Yanks.

 

Magically, that is all going to go away, this year, or their great young up and coming players will all fill in superbly (sarcasm alert).

 

All the injury prone Sox are doomed to a near full season on the IL.

 

Sale is toast.

Eovaldi can never pitch more than 150 IP again.

ERod is doomed.

Richards, too.

Ottavino sucked, last year, so he will this year, too.

EHern is a 700 hitter.

Cordero is a joke.

JD will not rebound.

 

Need I go further?

[moonslav59]

There's a pretty good chance that either Kluber or Taillon gives the Yankees nothing this year, as well...

 

There's even a significant chance neither do.

 

(I wish they were on the Sox roster, though.)

[jacksonianmarch]

You seem very certain your kids will deliver.

 

Maybe you will be right.

 

There’s enough of them that it’s more likely one or more will than none will

[notin]

Ottavino sucked last year. You have to also see the added value of having kids growing into bigger roles. Loaisiga, Nelson, King, eventually Schmidt and a slew of other high velocity relievers (or starters turned relievers) are going to spend time in our pen.

 

Ottavino gave up 0 ER in 17 of his 22 outings, and gave up 1 ER in three others. But based on those other two outings, apparently he sucked...

[jacksonianmarch]

Ottavino gave up 0 ER in 17 of his 22 outings, and gave up 1 ER in three others. But based on those other two outings, apparently he sucked...

 

Tell yourself whatever you want. Runs allowed is not a really good measure of a player as you know. 1.58WHIP, nearly 1HR/9IP for a sinkerballer, walks galore and he got lit up pretty good. Listen, he may end up being good. But since that HR allowed to George Springer, he has been awful. Nobody shrunk lower in big spots than Ottavino. I cannot wait to see how he does as closer against us. Well, that would assume you have a lead

[moonslav59]

There’s enough of them that it’s more likely one or more will than none will

 

I don't disagree, but saying "more likely" is a step back from the way you have been talking with near complete certainty.

 

I get it. It's Spring. We are days from opening day. Juices are flowing, and optimism often sounds like certainty.

 

You do have a bunch of young & promising starters. One or two will likely do well. You may have to go through one or two to get to the one(s) that contribute, and that may set you back a bit, early on, but I still project you guys win the division.

 

I do think the Jays got better and will give you a run.

 

The Rays look worse on paper, but we've said that too many times and been surprised over and over to count them out so easily.

 

The Sox started from a rock bottom spot, but they got much better, whether you believe it or not.

 

The O's suck as they have for a long time.

 

All-in-all, you will have a tougher AL East schedule this year, than last. I totally disagree with your take on the division getting worse, and the term "decidedly" was clearly hyperbole or you being grossly uninformed.

[moonslav59]

Tell yourself whatever you want. Runs allowed is not a really good measure of a player as you know. 1.58WHIP, nearly 1HR/9IP for a sinkerballer, walks galore and he got lit up pretty good. Listen, he may end up being good. But since that HR allowed to George Springer, he has been awful. Nobody shrunk lower in big spots than Ottavino. I cannot wait to see how he does as closer against us. Well, that would assume you have a lead

 

If he were still a Yank, you'd be pointing to his career or 2018-2019 numbers.

[Sox75]

What a ridiculous argument.

 

There is NO DOUBT that on paper, the Yankees are locked & LOADED. Good on them! They built back & bought back right, and their wallet is still open. They built & grew the farm back, and they have a budding powerhouse building.

 

Sox are still in some dire straights, but I think.we can surprise the league in a big way.

 

Let Jacks have his fun! Whatever. I hope we can give his boys a run for their money!

 

Fun stuff! Can't wait to get it on!

[moonslav59]

Paxton got $8.5M with a chance to make $10M, so he must be worth something, despite the poor 2020 season.

 

Happ signed for $8M.

 

Tanaka would have gotten significantly more than Kluber.

 

Ottavino might not be worth his contract, as the Yanks had to give up a prospect to shed his deal, but he'd have signed a decent contract, had he been a FA.

 

To act like the Yanks lost very little is neglecting clear evidence to the contrary. GMs, including Cashman do not place value based on just the most recent 60 game sample size.

 

Plus,if they did, Kluber, Sevy and Taillon would be worth zero.

[harmony]

Paxton got $8.5M with a chance to make $10M, so he must be worth something, despite the poor 2020 season.

FWIW this spring Seattle lefthander James Paxton has an ERA of 1.08 with 17 strikeouts in 8.1 innings (with an Opponents Quality of 8.2):

 

James Paxton Stats, Age, Position, Height, Weight, Fantasy & News | Boston Red Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

James Paxton Stats, Age, Position, Height, Weight, Fantasy & News

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paxtoja01.shtml

 

Paxton was not among the Mariners who filled 16 of the 32 roster slots on my dynasty fantasy team at Saturday's auction. A title defense is unlikely.

[jacksonianmarch]

What a ridiculous argument.

 

There is NO DOUBT that on paper, the Yankees are locked & LOADED. Good on them! They built back & bought back right, and their wallet is still open. They built & grew the farm back, and they have a budding powerhouse building.

 

Sox are still in some dire straights, but I think.we can surprise the league in a big way.

 

Let Jacks have his fun! Whatever. I hope we can give his boys a run for their money!

 

Fun stuff! Can't wait to get it on!

 

Love it. And loved the banter the last few days. Keep it coming. We have needed baseball badly. Cannot wait

[jacksonianmarch]

FWIW this spring Seattle lefthander James Paxton has an ERA of 1.08 with 17 strikeouts in 8.1 innings (with an Opponents Quality of 8.2):

 

James Paxton Stats, Age, Position, Height, Weight, Fantasy & News | Boston Red Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

James Paxton Stats, Age, Position, Height, Weight, Fantasy & News

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paxtoja01.shtml

 

Paxton was not among the Mariners who filled 16 of the 32 roster slots on my dynasty fantasy team at Saturday's auction. A title defense is unlikely.

 

And he’s one pitch from the 60 day DL. He’s never been healthy.

[notin]

And he’s one pitch from the 60 day DL. He’s never been healthy.

 

Who? Taillon?

[notin]

Tell yourself whatever you want. Runs allowed is not a really good measure of a player as you know. 1.58WHIP, nearly 1HR/9IP for a sinkerballer, walks galore and he got lit up pretty good. Listen, he may end up being good. But since that HR allowed to George Springer, he has been awful. Nobody shrunk lower in big spots than Ottavino. I cannot wait to see how he does as closer against us. Well, that would assume you have a lead

 

Right. Runs allowed is a weak measure, but an 18 inning sample tells all.

 

18 innings? You cite his 1 HR/9 as one of his detriments. But over 18 innings that means he allowed 2 home runs...

Edited March 29, 2021 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Tell yourself whatever you want. Runs allowed is not a really good measure of a player as you know. 1.58WHIP, nearly 1HR/9IP for a sinkerballer, walks galore and he got lit up pretty good. Listen, he may end up being good. But since that HR allowed to George Springer, he has been awful. Nobody shrunk lower in big spots than Ottavino. I cannot wait to see how he does as closer against us. Well, that would assume you have a lead

 

Who has had bigger issues in big spots than Chapman? 3 monster postseason home runs in 5 years. Something no one else in history has done, I don't think. The Cubs overcame one of them. The Yankees could not.

 

What do you tell yourself about that?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Who has had bigger issues in big spots than Chapman? 3 monster postseason home runs in 5 years. Something no one else in history has done, I don't think. The Cubs overcame one of them. The Yankees could not.

 

What do you tell yourself about that?

 

I tell myself that somewhere there's gotta be someone -- that is both a stat guy and a baseball guy -- convinced that postseason games mean about 10 times more than regular season games who might call that a large sample size...

[mvp 78]

Paxton was not among the Mariners who filled 16 of the 32 roster slots on my dynasty fantasy team at Saturday's auction. A title defense is unlikely.

 

Why would you do this to yourself??? I stay away from Sox players just so that if they suck IRL they don't kill my fantasy team too.

[notin]

I tell myself that somewhere there's gotta be someone -- that is both a stat guy and a baseball guy -- convinced that postseason games mean about 10 times more than regular season games who might call that a large sample size...

 

And at some point, maybe an inclusion that not all post-season games are equal. A bad game in game 2 of the ALDS is nowhere near as potentially catastrophic as a bad game in game 7 of the World Series...

[notin]

Why would you do this to yourself??? I stay away from Sox players just so that if they suck IRL they don't kill my fantasy team too.

 

I try to, but I have three Sox players in my team this year. Two of them are returning and helped me to second place last year...

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

A few other Sox updates:

 

* Roster could be 13/13 for a few days with some of the pitchers out.

* Cordero is good to go for Opening Day.

* Barnes doesn't have any symptoms.

* Final two ST games will be 7 innings.

* If they need an extra catcher, it would be somebody off the 40

[mvp 78]

I try to, but I have three Sox players in my team this year. Two of them are returning and helped me to second place last year...

 

It's easier to avoid the Sox in our TS league as most of the Sox go higher than they would in a draft of non-Sox fans.

[notin]

It's easier to avoid the Sox in our TS league as most of the Sox go higher than they would in a draft of non-Sox fans.

 

See my league is primarily White Sox fans. So getting Giolito or Robert or Moncada is difficult.

 

It's also an auction style draft, which means if good Sox players are left at the end, they can be had very cheaply and kept for at least 3 years. In a snake draft, I probably avoid ERod, but I did get him for $1 at the end of my draft this year, not bad for a team's potential ace. I got Verdugo for $1 last year and held on to him...

[jacksonianmarch]

Who? Taillon?

 

Two issues in Taillon’s career. Cancer and TJS. He’s not a soft tissue guy. Paxton gets operated on yearly.

[notin]

Two issues in Taillon’s career. Cancer and TJS. He’s not a soft tissue guy. Paxton gets operated on yearly.

 

Bt I'd call his risk equal to that of Paxton. FRom 2016-2019, Paxton started 101 games and threw 568 IP. In that same stretch, Taillon started 82 games and threw 467 IP. Taillon has also only thrown as many as 134 IP one time in his career, albeit with an impressive 191 IP. Paxton has never thrown 170 IP, but is at least a good bet to top 134 IP, which he has done every season since 2016 (not counting 2020).

 

So while Paxton does always make for legitimate health concerns, the solution to his lack of durability is absolutely not Jameson Taillon...

[mvp 78]

See my league is primarily White Sox fans. So getting Giolito or Robert or Moncada is difficult.

 

It's also an auction style draft, which means if good Sox players are left at the end, they can be had very cheaply and kept for at least 3 years. In a snake draft, I probably avoid ERod, but I did get him for $1 at the end of my draft this year, not bad for a team's potential ace. I got Verdugo for $1 last year and held on to him...

 

That makes sense then. I'd draft Sox at the end of any draft and not feel bad about it.

[notin]

That makes sense then. I'd draft Sox at the end of any draft and not feel bad about it.

 

It will make my decision tough if ERod struggles this year. Cutting him seems easy, but then I lose the chance to keep him next year for $1...

[mvp 78]

It will make my decision tough if ERod struggles this year. Cutting him seems easy, but then I lose the chance to keep him next year for $1...

 

He'll have an ok year, but will just be light on innings.

[notin]

He'll have an ok year, but will just be light on innings.

 

Not a big deal, as this is a roto-style leage (which we had to do with 11 teams).

 

I was actually thinking of jettisoning/trading all my SP and just using RP/Closers, as that would help me take ERA, WHIP and Saves in the 5x5 scoring system. Taking 1st in all three but punting Wins and K's. It's a thought...