What are your realistic expectations of Chris Sale for the 2021 season?

[TylerD]

He was inconsistent two years ago, and missed all this year..... what are your expectations for him coming back?? I just hope he doesn’t completely suck, that is all lol.

[Bellhorn04]

Copied from another thread here:

 

@SmittyOnMLB

Boston Red Sox’s Chris Sale projected for 2.97 ERA, 17 starts, 94 innings in 2021 in return from Tommy John surgery, per Bill James Handbook

 

Sure, why not?

[Bellhorn04]

If he can come back and make 15 starts or so, feel healthy and resemble his former self, I'll take it 100%.

[moonslav59]

Something like 16 starts: 3.50 and 90 IP would be nice. I would not be surprised, if he comes back looking as sharp as ever. The guy is a fierce competitor.

 

I'm more hopeful about 2022 and

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

[notin]

He'll be back opening day completely rejuvenated.

 

31 starts. 279 IP. 838 K's.

 

(Plawecki made him work harder than one time by dropping a third strike.)

[jad]

That he can be part of a team that plays 100 games or more. (Actually, I'm going to put that in the "hope" rather than the "realistic expectations" category).

[harmony]

Steamer projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.33 in 18 starts covering 103 innings.

 

ZiPS projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.26 in 24 starts covering 152 innings.

 

Marcel projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.96 in an unspecified number of starts covering 75 innings.

[mvp 78]

Steamer projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.33 in 18 starts covering 103 innings.

 

ZiPS projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.26 in 24 starts covering 152 innings.

 

Marcel projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.96 in an unspecified number of starts covering 75 innings.

 

Marcel gets sent to the wall.

[notin]

Steamer projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.33 in 18 starts covering 103 innings.

 

ZiPS projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.26 in 24 starts covering 152 innings.

 

Marcel projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.96 in an unspecified number of starts covering 75 innings.

 

What is ZIPS thinking?

 

Not buying that a pitcher less than 14 months from Tommy John surgery is going to make 24 starts and average 6.1 IP per start. And if he does, is ZIPS projecting the date Cora gets fired?

[Bellhorn04]

What is ZIPS thinking?

 

Yeah, I think the ZIPS guys must have had their holiday party early.

[dgalehouse]

Steamer projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.33 in 18 starts covering 103 innings.

 

ZiPS projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.26 in 24 starts covering 152 innings.

 

Marcel projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.96 in an unspecified number of starts covering 75 innings.

 

Harm , Any word from Marcel on when the Mariners might get to the World Series ?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My realistic expectations are that even if Sale is full-steam ahead, they won't let him throw more than around 50 innings when he comes back in August and September. Best-case scenario gives him 5 starts of 5 IP for each month. But if Boston is about to win the World Series, Cora will let him fan Machado again to end it.

[harmony]

Harm , Any word from Marcel on when the Mariners might get to the World Series ?

Perhaps within my lifetime ... or not.

 

In 2021 the Mariners threaten to finish with a better record than the Red Sox for the first time since ... well, since this year.

[moonslav59]

My realistic expectations are that even if Sale is full-steam ahead, they won't let him throw more than around 50 innings when he comes back in August and September. Best-case scenario gives him 5 starts of 5 IP for each month.

 

I'm not sure that's the "best case," but it could be what happens.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not sure that's the "best case," but it could be what happens.

 

My best case is that Sale rebounds to become a 30-game winner (in '21 and '22 combined), but the title asked for "realistic".

[Elktonnick]

The realistic projection is that the 2021 season will once again be truncated. It is impossible to project what will be the state of the game once Sale is ready to return. For what it is worth unless there are fans in the stands and teams are allowed to play before full houses, I just do not see Boston rushing Sales return. In other words IMHO it impossible to make any meaningful projection on how many innings Sale pitches next. If I were to guess it will be fewer than would have been normal in a non covid world.

[moonslav59]

My best case is that Sale rebounds to become a 30-game winner (in '21 and '22 combined), but the title asked for "realistic".

 

Realistic- "best case scenario"- he could start 12-18 games.

Edited December 5, 2020 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The realistic projection is that the 2021 season will once again be truncated. It is impossible to project what will be the state of the game once Sale is ready to return. For what it is worth unless there are fans in the stands and teams are allowed to play before full houses, I just do not see Boston rushing Sales return. In other words IMHO it impossible to make any meaningful projection on how many innings Sale pitches next. If I were to guess it will be fewer than would have been normal in a non covid world.

 

If COVID affects MLB, it might just be for the first 1-3 months, the time Sale will miss anyway.

[oldtimer]

What is ZIPS thinking?

 

Not buying that a pitcher less than 14 months from Tommy John surgery is going to make 24 starts and average 6.1 IP per start. And if he does, is ZIPS projecting the date Cora gets fired?

 

If he doesn't start until the projected mid June, it is hard to see him getting 24 starts. He would have to start on a regular rotation for the rest of the season to do it.

[Elktonnick]

If COVID affects MLB, it might just be for the first 1-3 months, the time Sale will miss anyway.

If Fauci's assessment is correct, it is highly unlikely that states such as California New York Massachusetts etc will allow MLB to fill stadiums anytime in 21. The Sox may pitch Sale in 21 but not every fifth day even in August. They will be very cautious with him. Without fannies in the seats there is little financial incentive to do so. If Sale pitches 50 innings in MLB regular season games in 21 I will be very surprised.

[Bellhorn04]

If Fauci's assessment is correct, it is highly unlikely that states such as California New York Massachusetts etc will allow MLB to fill stadiums anytime in 21. The Sox may pitch Sale in 21 but not every fifth day even in August. They will be very cautious with him. Without fannies in the seats there is little financial incentive to do so. If Sale pitches 50 innings in MLB regular season games in 21 I will be very surprised.

 

The fannies in the seats at home watching NESN matter too.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bill James is in fantasy land on this one. For starters, they don’t get to their full potential typically until 18 months give or take a month or two. Sale, realistically, won’t be fully back to his best until September as his procedure was in March. He will likely be back on the mound in July, but I doubt he’s anything but inconsistent until the final month.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, very, very good chance at full availability of vaccinations by June. My guess is that the virus loads start to drop around April or May with it dropping almost to nothing by June and we start to see full stadiums come July. Owners should get a half season of asses in seats. This is why there is a push to move the season back. It will be hard for the outdoor cold weather teams, but if you do November day games in playoffs in cold weather sites, it’s doable

[notin]

Also, very, very good chance at full availability of vaccinations by June. My guess is that the virus loads start to drop around April or May with it dropping almost to nothing by June and we start to see full stadiums come July. Owners should get a half season of asses in seats. This is why there is a push to move the season back. It will be hard for the outdoor cold weather teams, but if you do November day games in playoffs in cold weather sites, it’s doable

 

I think you’re rushing it.

 

It could take the rest of 2021 alone to reach the point where we have sufficient quantity vaccinated. And by that time, the effects of this vaccine with zero history on the first recipients might have worn off...

[jacksonianmarch]

Expectation is that half the population needs the vaccine to almost entirely mitigate spread. Also, as we start to hang out outside again rather than indoors, the virus cases drop. I am optimistic that MLB will get a half season of near full stadiums as currently constituted

[jad]

Also, very, very good chance at full availability of vaccinations by June. My guess is that the virus loads start to drop around April or May with it dropping almost to nothing by June and we start to see full stadiums come July. Owners should get a half season of asses in seats. This is why there is a push to move the season back. It will be hard for the outdoor cold weather teams, but if you do November day games in playoffs in cold weather sites, it’s doable

 

This is both good and bad news. My concern is what I see around me here (LA) and elsewhere. It is as if the news on the vaccine has made many people seemingly indifferent to basic and obvious safety. If the cases continue to rise until April or May (is that what you're assume?), we (or 100s of thousands of us) are in serious trouble.

 

Stay safe. Wear a mask. (The fact that this closing banality will be considered by some "controversial" or "political" is in part why we're screwed.)

[notin]

This is both good and bad news. My concern is what I see around me here (LA) and elsewhere. It is as if the news on the vaccine has made many people seemingly indifferent to basic and obvious safety. If the cases continue to rise until April or May (is that what you're assume?), we (or 100s of thousands of us) are in serious trouble.

 

Stay safe. Wear a mask. (The fact that this closing banality will be considered by some "controversial" or "political" is in part why we're screwed.)

 

Vaccine or not, seems like that has been going on or months. When was the last time you saw people wearing latex glove in the supermarket?

[a700hitter]

Vaccine or not, seems like that has been going on or months. When was the last time you saw people wearing latex glove in the supermarket?

If you wash your hands often and use hand sanitizers, latex gloves aren’t needed, especially if you have the self control not to touch your face. Numbers are spiking because people are going indoors like Jacko said. Most people are wearing masks indoors in public places. I don’t think the behaviors are the problem. It is an increase in indoor activity in public spaces.

[notin]

If you wash your hands often and use hand sanitizers, latex gloves aren’t needed, especially if you have the self control not to touch your face. Numbers are spiking because people are going indoors like Jacko said. Most people are wearing masks indoors in public places. I don’t think the behaviors are the problem. It is an increase in indoor activity in public spaces.

 

Gloves might not be necessary if you take precautions like you said, but not everyone takes them. and precautions or not, gloves + precautions > just precautions.

 

Obviously being forced back inside is going to be a huge factor in the spread. But back in March and April, I saw a lot more gloves on people, and a lot more curbside pickup vs going into stores. In fact, there was a stretch where wearing gloves in the stores was at nearly 100%. Now, I'd put it below 1%. I think people started relaxing on the precautionary measures months ago. One could argue the increased presence in public spaces is evidence of lessened precautions as well.

 

I'm even seeing Lysol on store shelves again. Four months ago, the stuff lasted on the shelves for a period of time best measured in nanoseconds...

[jad]

If you wash your hands often and use hand sanitizers, latex gloves aren’t needed, especially if you have the self control not to touch your face. Numbers are spiking because people are going indoors like Jacko said. Most people are wearing masks indoors in public places. I don’t think the behaviors are the problem. It is an increase in indoor activity in public spaces.

 

I don't disagree with that. But there's less of that here (in CA) than in NE, and the cases are still sky-rocketing. What I see here is a lot of what I call 'recreational shopping'--e.g., at TJ's, where only once in the last month have I not seen a line outside. And a lot of businesses fudging on the rules (what happened here, was that 'outside dining' was interpreted by many restaurants as permitting the construction of enclosed tents and awnings outside (that essentially provided all the dangers of indoor dining without an air-circulation system). We'll see what happens w/ the current stay-at-home order. I'm lucky--my life is essentially the same --I just don't get to see my friends as often as I would like.