What are your realistic expectations of Chris Sale for the 2021 season?

[moonslav59]

If Fauci's assessment is correct, it is highly unlikely that states such as California New York Massachusetts etc will allow MLB to fill stadiums anytime in 21. The Sox may pitch Sale in 21 but not every fifth day even in August. They will be very cautious with him. Without fannies in the seats there is little financial incentive to do so. If Sale pitches 50 innings in MLB regular season games in 21 I will be very surprised.

 

There may be games in empty, full or half-full stadiums by the time Sale is ready to pitch. Certainly, there's a chance he gets 12-18 starts. It's not "unrealistic."

[moonslav59]

Bill James is in fantasy land on this one. For starters, they don’t get to their full potential typically until 18 months give or take a month or two. Sale, realistically, won’t be fully back to his best until September as his procedure was in March. He will likely be back on the mound in July, but I doubt he’s anything but inconsistent until the final month.

 

If any player could come back a bit earlier and a bit better than the norm, I'd bet on Sale.

[Elktonnick]

There may be games in empty, full or half-full stadiums by the time Sale is ready to pitch. Certainly, there's a chance he gets 12-18 starts. It's not "unrealistic."

It is totally unrealistic IMHO. Remember how Cora babied him in 2019 during ST. The leopard doesn't change his spots. Cora will not be pitching Sale more than 50 pitches his first start which is not likely until August which will be barely 18 months post TJ.

[dgalehouse]

If any player could come back a bit earlier and a bit better than the norm, I'd bet on Sale.

 

If Sale could will it to happen , he would start opening day. But it doesn't work that way. The healing process takes time , no matter how much you may wish it to speed up. Sale is no exception.

[moonslav59]

If Sale could will it to happen , he would start opening day. But it doesn't work that way. The healing process takes time , no matter how much you may wish it to speed up. Sale is no exception.

 

Not every patient is the same. There are examples of players returning significantly earlier than 18 months.

 

A person's drive and willingness to follow the protocols matter. Every doctor will agree.

 

Also, TJS is not what it was long ago.

 

https://www.newswise.com/articles/new-surgical-technique-cuts-tommy-john-recovery-time-in-half

 

My point was that, if anyone can cut down on the recovery time, it would be someone like Sale.

 

(Also, I was talking about 12-18 GS'd not IP. I agree, Cora will start him off very slowly and cautiously.)

[Elktonnick]

Not every patient is the same. There are examples of players returning significantly earlier than 18 months.

 

A person's drive and willingness to follow the protocols matter. Every doctor will agree.

 

Also, TJS is not what it was long ago.

 

https://www.newswise.com/articles/new-surgical-technique-cuts-tommy-john-recovery-time-in-half

 

My point was that, if anyone can cut down on the recovery time, it would be someone like Sale.

 

(Also, I was talking about 12-18 GS'd not IP. I agree, Cora will start him off very slowly and cautiously.)

 

My point is that the Red Sox aren't going to risk Sale no matter what he Sale wants to do, there is absolutely no financial incentive for them to do so. I see 21 as a lost season financially for MLB. Moreover Cora's history managing starting pitchers makes it even more unlikely that one sees Sale for any more than ten games comes late August or September.

[Bellhorn04]

My point is that the Red Sox aren't going to risk Sale no matter what he Sale wants to do, there is absolutely no financial incentive for them to do so. I see 21 as a lost season financially for MLB. Moreover Cora's history managing starting pitchers makes it even more unlikely that one sees Sale for any more than ten games comes late August or September.

 

There is a financial incentive even if there are no fans at the games. They want people to watch the games on NESN, which had big drops in viewership in both 2019 and 2020.

[Thunder]

I don't believe I have posted in this thread, so to answer the original question:

 

I don't expect much out of Sale in 2021. I don't expect him back at least until after the All Star Break (which we should still have even if the ASG is cancelled), and depending on where we are in the standings, I don't think there should be any rush to bring him back. I expect him to be back at full strength in 2022, but I have a hard time seeing a future where he performs at the same level as he did in 2018, or the first half of 2019. I would love to be proven wrong. I just think it's a lot of wait and see at this point. There's way too many uncertainties at this point.

[Elktonnick]

There is a financial incentive even if there are no fans at the games. They want people to watch the games on NESN, which had big drops in viewership in both 2019 and 2020.

Nesn's bottom line has no affect on the the Boston Red Sox balance sheet. Nesn is a joint venture and separate entity financially. The few games Sale will pitch in 21 will have a miniscule impact on nesn viewership and balance sheet.

[notin]

Nesn's bottom line has no affect on the the Boston Red Sox balance sheet. Nesn is a joint venture and separate entity financially. The few games Sale will pitch in 21 will have a miniscule impact on nesn viewership and balance sheet.

 

NESN is 80% owned by the Fenway Sports Group. Their bottom line does matter to Henry. How much of a factor this is with regards to Sale remains to be seen, but is hopefully not a factor...

[Elktonnick]

NESN is 80% owned by the Fenway Sports Group. Their bottom line does matter to Henry. How much of a factor this is with regards to Sale remains to be seen, but is hopefully not a factor...

If Henry is good at his word that Bloom is in charge of baseball operations then not at all. And I believe him until proven otherwise.

[moonslav59]

My point is that the Red Sox aren't going to risk Sale no matter what he Sale wants to do, there is absolutely no financial incentive for them to do so. I see 21 as a lost season financially for MLB. Moreover Cora's history managing starting pitchers makes it even more unlikely that one sees Sale for any more than ten games comes late August or September.

 

Wow, 10 is so far from 12.

[Elktonnick]

Wow, 10 is so far from 12.

12 was your bottom.number 10 is my top number 50 innings is the total for the season . He never throws more than 100 pitches and then only late in September in perhaps his last 2 starts. Sox do not make the playoffs.

[Bellhorn04]

12 was your bottom.number 10 is my top number 50 innings is the total for the season . He never throws more than 100 pitches and then only late in September in perhaps his last 2 starts. Sox do not make the playoffs.

 

You were also pretty sure Cora wasn't coming back, so your crystal ball might be a little out of whack.

[notin]

If Henry is good at his word that Bloom is in charge of baseball operations then not at all. And I believe him until proven otherwise.

 

So I guess you’re not one to defend Dombrowski’s crazy spending spree by saying “but Henry signed off on it”...

[Bellhorn04]

So I guess you’re not one to defend Dombrowski’s crazy spending spree by saying “but Henry signed off on it”...

 

I think Henry did sign off on all this team's crazy spending sprees, and there have been a few of them. Pre-2007, pre-2011, pre-2015, pre-2019. That's actually every four years.

[jacksonianmarch]

DD's spending is 100%, entirely defensible solely because of the 2018 flag that waves in Fenway

[Thunder]

DD's spending is 100%, entirely defensible solely because of the 2018 flag that waves in Fenway

 

That's debatable at best

[Bellhorn04]

DD's spending is 100%, entirely defensible solely because of the 2018 flag that waves in Fenway

 

That's a bit of an oversimplification, particularly because a lot of the spending occurred after the 2018 WS.

 

Personally I think if you want to really attack or defend the spending you pretty much have to do it on a contract-by-contract basis.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's a bit of an oversimplification, particularly because a lot of the spending occurred after the 2018 WS.

 

Personally I think if you want to really attack or defend the spending you pretty much have to do it on a contract-by-contract basis.

 

My first thought, too. My second, for the bashers -- what did Dombro always spend the most on? Pitching: Price, Kimbrel/Thornburg/Smith/Pomeranz/Reed/Sale/Eovaldi through trades (the cost was a lot of prospects)... and then resigning Sale and Eovaldi. Some worked out, many didn't, but that's one common method of team-building in baseball. Dombro has been successful in building winning teams, if not always world champs.

 

And if you get past what Bloom was given to start his tenure here, his job is very similar to that of most GMs or Chief Officers: building a team with pitching. The post-'18 WS contracts to Sale and Eovaldi were risky, but can anyone argue that Dave didn't have Boston's best interests -- as a sustained contender -- in mind... ?

[notin]

I think Henry did sign off on all this team's crazy spending sprees, and there have been a few of them. Pre-2007, pre-2011, pre-2015, pre-2019. That's actually every four years.

 

What about pre-2013?

[Bellhorn04]

What about pre-2013?

 

I thought of that too. I think the grand total was 100 million-ish. The others were 200 million-ish or more.

[jacksonianmarch]

When you don’t take home a ring, you get second guessed. You knew what you were getting. You got what you knew was coming. Title chances early, destroyed farm and payroll hell after.

[Bellhorn04]

When you don’t take home a ring, you get second guessed. You knew what you were getting. You got what you knew was coming. Title chances early, destroyed farm and payroll hell after.

 

I don't feel like we're in hell, just purgatory...

[moonslav59]

12 was your bottom.number 10 is my top number 50 innings is the total for the season . He never throws more than 100 pitches and then only late in September in perhaps his last 2 starts. Sox do not make the playoffs.

 

So the very best case scenario, which one could assume we are in a playoff hunt, is he can only get 10 starts.

 

I agree my top end of 18 GS'd is too rosy, but I still think he may get 12-14 starts. If the start of the season is pushed back, and/or we make the playoffs, we could see 12-16.

[Elktonnick]

So the very best case scenario, which one could assume we are in a playoff hunt, is he can only get 10 starts.

 

I agree my top end of 18 GS'd is too rosy, but I still think he may get 12-14 starts. If the start of the season is pushed back, and/or we make the playoffs, we could see 12-16.

You know what Don Meredith said about If and buts.

[moonslav59]

You know what Don Meredith said about If and buts.

 

A real expert.

 

I still think there's a chance Sale is pitching in July. Sure, I could be wrong, but we were talking best case scenarios.

[dgalehouse]

I think a G.M.'s job is to put together a team that gets into position to win a title. They can't be judged on the results of a short series.

[Elktonnick]

A real expert.

 

I still think there's a chance Sale is pitching in July. Sure, I could be wrong, but we were talking best case scenarios.

 

The title of the thread is "your realistic expectations" not best case scenarios. Best case scenario is the Red Sox repeat their 2018 record and win it all but that ain't happening either.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Elktonnick

[moonslav59]

The title of the thread is "your realistic expectations" not best case scenarios. Best case scenario is the Red Sox repeat their 2018 record and win it all but that ain't happening either.

 

Someone gave what they thought was the "best case scenario" on Sale. It happens that a thread goes off on some tangents. I responded what I felt was "best case" withing the context of being "realistic." I felt 12-18, and now realize that 18 is unrealistic, unless the season is pushed back.

 

12 starts is not the same as saying we will repeat 2018.

 

Nice try, though.