What are your realistic expectations of Chris Sale for the 2021 season?

[Elktonnick]

Someone gave what they thought was the "best case scenario" on Sale. It happens that a thread goes off on some tangents. I responded what I felt was "best case" withing the context of being "realistic." I felt 12-18, and now realize that 18 is unrealistic, unless the season is pushed back.

 

12 starts is not the same as saying we will repeat 2018.

 

Nice try, though.

 

In my view it is.

[moonslav59]

In my view it is.

 

I have no issue with anyone saying 10 GS'd is the most realistic best case scenario, but I don't think 12 GS'd is beyond reason. 14 might be pushing it, but players do come back earlier than 17-18 months, and my guess is nobody can try harder than Sale to do so.

 

I respect your position about Cora, and it makes a lot of sense. It's one reason I lowered my expectations on Sale for 2021.

[Elktonnick]

I have no issue with anyone saying 10 GS'd is the most realistic best case scenario, but I don't think 12 GS'd is beyond reason. 14 might be pushing it, but players do come back earlier than 17-18 months, and my guess is nobody can try harder than Sale to do so.

 

I respect your position about Cora, and it makes a lot of sense. It's one reason I lowered my expectations on Sale for 2021.

 

Stay safe Happy Holidays

[Bellhorn04]

I have no issue with anyone saying 10 GS'd is the most realistic best case scenario, but I don't think 12 GS'd is beyond reason. 14 might be pushing it, but players do come back earlier than 17-18 months, and my guess is nobody can try harder than Sale to do so.

 

I respect your position about Cora, and it makes a lot of sense. It's one reason I lowered my expectations on Sale for 2021.

 

Cora's 'history' with starters has nothing to do with how many innings Sale pitches. He'll be careful, obviously, just as every other manager would be.

 

Nick is just using this to take another shot at Cora about Restgate.

[notin]

I think a G.M.'s job is to put together a team that gets into position to win a title. They can't be judged on the results of a short series.

 

I agree here. A failure to win a ring can happen despite superlative work by any GM.

 

But the goal should also be to maintain the success long term and not just go all in for one hopeful title followed by a period of payroll-hampered mediocrity. Any GM can be handed a blank checkbook and put together a winning team. The trick is to build a winner without letting the future fall apart afterwards...

[mvp 78]

Cora's 'history' with starters has nothing to do with how many innings Sale pitches. He'll be careful, obviously, just as every other manager would be.

 

Nick is just using this to take another shot at Cora about Restgate.

 

Honestly, I still don't have a problem with restgate. Sale was injured in the prior year and wasn't 100% that April. Price wasn't exactly the picture of health even though he had a magical elbow that could heal itself. ERod still pitched a career high 200 innnings after restgate. Eovaldi has always had the injury bug and his heroics during the World Series made me want to put the kid golves on him too. Porcello has been a workhorse whose performance has been very up and down. I don't think I can really blame his bad 2019 and 2020 on starting off the season slower.

 

Yes, it may have cost the Sox a few games in 2019. Maybe they win 5 more games? That still leaves them out of the playoff picture. Did it cost them 10 games? I doubt it. It was just post a WS hangover.

[notin]

I have no issue with anyone saying 10 GS'd is the most realistic best case scenario, but I don't think 12 GS'd is beyond reason. 14 might be pushing it, but players do come back earlier than 17-18 months, and my guess is nobody can try harder than Sale to do so.

 

I respect your position about Cora, and it makes a lot of sense. It's one reason I lowered my expectations on Sale for 2021.

 

At this point, I don't want Sale to "try harder" to come back early. Get the recovery done th right way and take all the time you need. The worst thing he could possibly do is push himself and come back as a lesser pitcher or one who re-injures himself and misses even more time.

 

If there is a full season next year and the Sox are 35-45 (or whatever) at the All Star break, does anyone want to see Sale try to push himself and get back in there? At that point, maybe just dial it back a bit and see how 2022 works.

 

The actual problem might be if the Sox are 45-35 (or whatever) and Sale is on the cusp. Then what?

[moonslav59]

At this point, I don't want Sale to "try harder" to come back early. Get the recovery done th right way and take all the time you need. The worst thing he could possibly do is push himself and come back as a lesser pitcher or one who re-injures himself and misses even more time.

 

If there is a full season next year and the Sox are 35-45 (or whatever) at the All Star break, does anyone want to see Sale try to push himself and get back in there? At that point, maybe just dial it back a bit and see how 2022 works.

 

The actual problem might be if the Sox are 45-35 (or whatever) and Sale is on the cusp. Then what?

 

I never said I wanted Sale to get 12-18 starts- only that it was the most we could expect.

 

Getting to 12 or more would take a few things to happen:

 

1) I expect Sale is doing everything he can to follow protocol, so his recovery time will not be extended due to laziness or poor attitude.

2) The Sox are in the playoff hunt in July, or the season has been pushed back.

3) Sale is truly healthy and ready to start.

4) His starts have pitch counts.

 

We can "not want" Sale to try hard, but I'm not sure anyone can stop him. I'm not expecting him to be reckless.

[mvp 78]

At this point, I don't want Sale to "try harder" to come back early. Get the recovery done th right way and take all the time you need. The worst thing he could possibly do is push himself and come back as a lesser pitcher or one who re-injures himself and misses even more time.

 

If there is a full season next year and the Sox are 35-45 (or whatever) at the All Star break, does anyone want to see Sale try to push himself and get back in there? At that point, maybe just dial it back a bit and see how 2022 works.

 

The actual problem might be if the Sox are 45-35 (or whatever) and Sale is on the cusp. Then what?

 

Even if they are in contention, I don't want to rush him back. He's the best arm they have and they can't treat him like a 92 Corolla.

[mvp 78]

I never said I wanted Sale to get 12-18 starts- only that it was the most we could expect.

 

Getting to 12 or more would take a few things to happen:

 

1) I expect Sale is doing everything he can to follow protocol, so his recovery time will not be extended due to laziness or poor attitude.

2) The Sox are in the playoff hunt in July, or the season has been pushed back.

3) Sale is truly healthy and ready to start.

4) His starts have pitch counts.

 

I think #4 is a given. I think we may see Sale earlier than expected, but just in an opener role. He could have a higher GS total than expected, but much less innings pitched.

[moonslav59]

Honestly, I still don't have a problem with restgate. Sale was injured in the prior year and wasn't 100% that April. Price wasn't exactly the picture of health even though he had a magical elbow that could heal itself. ERod still pitched a career high 200 innnings after restgate. Eovaldi has always had the injury bug and his heroics during the World Series made me want to put the kid golves on him too. Porcello has been a workhorse whose performance has been very up and down. I don't think I can really blame his bad 2019 and 2020 on starting off the season slower.

 

Yes, it may have cost the Sox a few games in 2019. Maybe they win 5 more games? That still leaves them out of the playoff picture. Did it cost them 10 games? I doubt it. It was just post a WS hangover.

 

I totally agree.

 

We rested these guys, who needed it, and still only ended up with these IP'd:

174 Porcello

147 Sale

107 Price

68 Eovaldi

 

Are the "Restgate" people really thinking, had we pitched these guys more early on, they'd have not gotten hurt and missed much of the season?

 

One could easily argue the opposite: had Cora pampered these guys even more, maybe they'd have been healthier and ended up with more IP'd.

[notin]

I think #4 is a given. I think we may see Sale earlier than expected, but just in an opener role. He could have a higher GS total than expected, but much less innings pitched.

 

That might be the best strategy.

 

But right now, the Sox need to find someone to fill his IP from the early season, preferably without resorting to an opener situation, since the bullpen needs a serious overhaul as well.

 

I'm normally not one to rush the post-season, but at some point the Sox really do need to make a move if even just for PR purposes. Joel Payamps and Christian Koss are not going to have any effect on NESN subscriptions...

[mvp 78]

There just has to be major injury concerns/question marks when 3 of your top starters are Eovaldi, Price and Sale.

 

Maybe Price is finally past that? IDK.

 

Sale and Eovaldi will be annual question marks here on out. It's more of a problem with roster creation than lineup creation. That falls on the gm, not the manager.

[notin]

There just has to be major injury concerns/question marks when 3 of your top starters are Eovaldi, Price and Sale.

 

Maybe Price is finally past that? IDK.

 

Sale and Eovaldi will be annual question marks here on out. It's more of a problem with roster creation than lineup creation. That falls on the gm, not the manager.

 

Eovaldi to the bullpen!

 

The guy has not thrown 125 IP in a season since 2015. You know, back when Albert Pujols was still an All Star and the league's highest paid LTCF resident Miguel Cabrera was a batting champion...

[moonslav59]

I think #4 is a given. I think we may see Sale earlier than expected, but just in an opener role. He could have a higher GS total than expected, but much less innings pitched.

 

My point was always about GS'd NOT IP. I never even thought of the "opener role." If they started him out in that role, he could easily get 12-14 "starts".

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi to the bullpen!

 

The guy has not thrown 125 IP in a season since 2015. You know, back when Albert Pujols was still an All Star and the league's highest paid LTCF resident Miguel Cabrera was a batting champion...

 

I was never really keen on this idea, but maybe the time has come.

 

We'd need even one more SP'er than we already need, which means going from needing 2-3 to needing 3-4, including one to two 5/6 starter types.

[mvp 78]

That might be the best strategy.

 

But right now, the Sox need to find someone to fill his IP from the early season, preferably without resorting to an opener situation, since the bullpen needs a serious overhaul as well.

 

I'm normally not one to rush the post-season, but at some point the Sox really do need to make a move if even just for PR purposes. Joel Payamps and Christian Koss are not going to have any effect on NESN subscriptions...

 

Right now, the starters in April are:

 

ERod

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

Mazza

 

I think Seabold gives them a little depth and we'll probably see Mata at some point this year. They will probably still sign another SP or two, so I'm not super concerned at the moment. Of the 55 SP free agents and QO's, only 8 have signed. I think they should re-sign Perez and Lester on one year deals. They will be able to throw a lot of innings and shouldn't break the bank.

 

My Opening Day rotation would be:

 

Lester (have him pitch home opener)

Eovaldi

Perez

Pivetta

Houck

 

ERod can ease his way back into the rotation and you can cycle Pivetta and Houck out once Sale is ready.

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi to the bullpen!

 

The guy has not thrown 125 IP in a season since 2015. You know, back when Albert Pujols was still an All Star and the league's highest paid LTCF resident Miguel Cabrera was a batting champion...

 

I'm fine with it.

[mvp 78]

I was never really keen on this idea, but maybe the time has come.

 

We'd need even one more SP'er than we already need, which means going from needing 2-3 to needing 3-4, including one to two 5/6 starter types.

 

ERod says he's healthy, so I don't really think we need 4. Even then, 3 may be a little overkill.

[notin]

I was never really keen on this idea, but maybe the time has come.

 

We'd need even one more SP'er than we already need, which means going from needing 2-3 to needing 3-4, including one to two 5/6 starter types.

 

Get 2 MLB starters and 2 MLB relievers and this has the potential to be a formidable pitching staff. (Assuming they are all decent pitchers.)

[notin]

Right now, the starters in April are:

 

ERod

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

Mazza

 

I think Seabold gives them a little depth and we'll probably see Mata at some point this year. They will probably still sign another SP or two, so I'm not super concerned at the moment. Of the 55 SP free agents and QO's, only 8 have signed. I think they should re-sign Perez and Lester on one year deals. They will be able to throw a lot of innings and shouldn't break the bank.

 

My Opening Day rotation would be:

 

Lester (have him pitch home opener)

Eovaldi

Perez

Pivetta

Houck

 

ERod can ease his way back into the rotation and you can cycle Pivetta and Houck out once Sale is ready.

 

But keep Mazza in?

[mvp 78]

But keep Mazza in?

 

Keep Mazza in where? I think he should be the 6th guy (long reliever) on Opening Day. He's an emergency starter in my mind. If they sign Lester and Perez, he doesn't start in my rotation very often if at all.

[Thunder]

Right now, the starters in April are:

 

ERod

Eovaldi

Houck

Pivetta

Mazza

 

I think Seabold gives them a little depth and we'll probably see Mata at some point this year. They will probably still sign another SP or two, so I'm not super concerned at the moment. Of the 55 SP free agents and QO's, only 8 have signed. I think they should re-sign Perez and Lester on one year deals. They will be able to throw a lot of innings and shouldn't break the bank.

 

My Opening Day rotation would be:

 

Lester (have him pitch home opener)

Eovaldi

Perez

Pivetta

Houck

 

ERod can ease his way back into the rotation and you can cycle Pivetta and Houck out once Sale is ready.

 

I do love the idea of Lester ending his career in Boston, but don't agree with Perez. What's your logic behind that (unless I missed it in an earlier post?). Is it based purely on innings pitched? I don't trust Perez to remain effective over 162 games

[moonslav59]

ERod says he's healthy, so I don't really think we need 4. Even then, 3 may be a little overkill.

 

I'm not counting on ERod in April. If he's healthy the 3rd guy becomes our 6th starter or long relief guy.

 

Remember, I said 1-2 guys would be 5/6 starter types. That means starter depth and maybe even starting in AAA.

[moonslav59]

Get 2 MLB starters and 2 MLB relievers and this has the potential to be a formidable pitching staff. (Assuming they are all decent pitchers.)

 

Agreed, but I still think we need at least 1 more SP'er for depth, if we want to contend. Maybe a AAAA type.

[moonslav59]

I do love the idea of Lester ending his career in Boston, but don't agree with Perez. What's your logic behind that (unless I missed it in an earlier post?). Is it based purely on innings pitched? I don't trust Perez to remain effective over 162 games

 

I could see us signing Lester & Porcello and a couple RP'ers, but if we move Eovaldi to closer, we may need one more legit SP'er.

[Bellhorn04]

There has been no mention of the idea of moving Eovaldi to closer except on Talksox. If Bloom says something about it, I'll take it seriously.

[mvp 78]

I do love the idea of Lester ending his career in Boston, but don't agree with Perez. What's your logic behind that (unless I missed it in an earlier post?). Is it based purely on innings pitched? I don't trust Perez to remain effective over 162 games

 

He'll be cheap. He liked playing here. He was durable.

[mvp 78]

I could see us signing Lester & Porcello and a couple RP'ers, but if we move Eovaldi to closer, we may need one more legit SP'er.

 

I'd rather Perez than Porcello.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd rather Perez than Porcello.

 

FWIW, in 2020 Porcello had an fWAR of 1.7 in 59 innings compared to 0.4 in 62 innings for Perez.

 

FanGraphs always loves Porcello.