What are your realistic expectations of Chris Sale for the 2021 season?

[jacksonianmarch]

If the final offseason roster looks like another punted year, then I pull back on the Chris sale reigns a bit and have him got for it around the ASB. If the Sox make additions and look like they’re ready to compete, then I’d let his progress dictate a timeline.

[moonslav59]

If the final offseason roster looks like another punted year, then I pull back on the Chris sale reigns a bit and have him got for it around the ASB. If the Sox make additions and look like they’re ready to compete, then I’d let his progress dictate a timeline.

 

None of this should make a difference: he should only start when good & ready.

[Bellhorn04]

One might think that the continued positive reports on Sale and E-Rod would move the Sox in the direction of not punting 2021. I never really thought they would punt it, but doubts do begin to creep in.

[jacksonianmarch]

None of this should make a difference: he should only start when good & ready.

 

There’s ready and able and then there’s most likely to be effective. He should be healthy enough to pitch in May (14 months or so post surgery). Unless Bloom’s goal is to shed his contract, I’d hold him back if 2021 doesn’t look like a banner year. He’s got a lot of miles on his arm, a recent surgical procedure and a shoulder injury that sapped effectiveness before hand. I’d avoid having him burn through in a year that the Sox seem destined to finish lower in the standings. I’d treat 2021 as the year to get him right so he can take the ball opening day 2022

[jacksonianmarch]

One might think that the continued positive reports on Sale and E-Rod would move the Sox in the direction of not punting 2021. I never really thought they would punt it, but doubts do begin to creep in.

 

ERod is another story entirely. His issue will be recovering his conditioning and repeating his mechanics. He’s got the better chance between he and Sale of having a fully productive 2021, but I do wonder if there will be extra precautions taken. Very few players play after an episode of myocarditis. With covid being a new disease, I bet he’s monitored to the hilt

[notin]

The Sox shouldn't let Sale make more than 12 starts and maybe 60 innings.

 

Of course, there is no guarantee he joins the rotation immediately after coming back, either.

[moonslav59]

One might think that the continued positive reports on Sale and E-Rod would move the Sox in the direction of not punting 2021. I never really thought they would punt it, but doubts do begin to creep in.

 

I think the plan is to try and improve for 2021 with an eye towards 2022 and beyond. These two priorities need not be conflicting in many decisions.

 

Hopefully, we get good enough to make a run at the playoffs. If it looks like we might be in the hunt, we may be buyers at the deadline. If not, we may try and move all free agents to be- like Barnes & ERod amd maybe even some who may become FAs after 2022: Vaz, JD & Eovaldi.

[mvp 78]

None of this should make a difference: he should only start when good & ready.

 

I agree. If they are in the hunt in September, but Sale is still not quite there, Sale must still be held back.

[mvp 78]

One might think that the continued positive reports on Sale and E-Rod would move the Sox in the direction of not punting 2021. I never really thought they would punt it, but doubts do begin to creep in.

 

To think people used to get upset if the roster wasn't completed by Thanksgiving...

[moonslav59]

I agree. If they are in the hunt in September, but Sale is still not quite there, Sale must still be held back.

 

Unless we make some radical additions, I can't see us winning in the next few years without a healthy Sale.

 

I trust Sox brass knowing that.

[notin]

Unless we make some radical additions, I can't see us winning in the next few years without a healthy Sale.

 

I trust Sox brass knowing that.

 

The Sox won in 2018 without a healthy Sale for the entire second half...

[moonslav59]

The Sox won in 2018 without a healthy Sale for the entire second half...

 

Yes, but they had Betts, Price, Moreland, Kimbrel...

 

Unless we make some radical additions, we need Sale more than we did in 2018.

 

(BTW, Sale helped "set the tone" for greatness in 2018.)

[mvp 78]

Yes, but they had Betts, Price, Moreland, Kimbrel...

 

Unless we make some radical additions, we need Sale more than we did in 2018.

 

(BTW, Sale helped "set the tone" for greatness in 2018.)

 

Price fWAR 2018: 2.4

Moreland fWAR 2018: 0.7

Kimbrel fWAR 2018: 1.3

 

Betts is irreplaceable, but those other guys could be replaced without much effort at all.

[mvp 78]

Barnes provided about the same value as Kimbrel did in 2018 and most people on here think he's dog s***.

 

Dalbec provided almost the same value as Moreland in just over one month in 2020.

 

Mookie's 10.4 fWAR is really the big difference maker.

[moonslav59]

Price fWAR 2018: 2.4

Moreland fWAR 2018: 0.7

Kimbrel fWAR 2018: 1.3

 

Betts is irreplaceable, but those other guys could be replaced without much effort at all.

 

They can but haven't been, yet.

 

I don't see us getting another ace this winter, so until we do, I'm thinking we can't win it all without Sale being healthy and near top form.

 

Ask me, later, after we've made half a dozen meaningful moves.

[TylerD]

I'm hoping July, but we should not push him too hard, even if we happen to be in the playoff hunt.

 

This

 

Even if he can get a couple innings in.... he’s definitely going to be rusty so would be nice if he had a half season to work on his mechanics.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Price fWAR 2018: 2.4

Moreland fWAR 2018: 0.7

Kimbrel fWAR 2018: 1.3

 

Betts is irreplaceable, but those other guys could be replaced without much effort at all.

 

I see your fWAR and raise you bWAR: Mookie 10.6, Sale 6.8, JD 6.5, Beni 4.5, X 4.3, Price 4.2 in 2018.

 

According to b-ref's guidelines, 5+ is "All-Star quality" and 8+ "MVP Quality"... Fangraphs, which seems to assign slightly-lower numbers in most cases, gives these ratings in its "rule-of-thumb chart": 3-4 "good player", 4-5 "All-Star", 5-6 "Superstar", 6+ "MVP".

 

ps: either way, the Sox had a lot of good players play well in '18.

Edited January 14, 2021 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
ps

[TylerD]

Unless we make some radical additions, I can't see us winning in the next few years without a healthy Sale.

 

I trust Sox brass knowing that.

Last year proved that. We had a top 3 offense and we weren’t even close to a playoff spot lol. Without pitching a team goes nowhere. You could have a historic all time leading offense and still miss playoffs. With our current pitching, I don’t see us going very far

 

But I have been wrong before believe it or not.

[mvp 78]

Last year proved that. We had a top 3 offense and we weren’t even close to a playoff spot lol. Without pitching a team goes nowhere. You could have a historic all time leading offense and still miss playoffs. With our current pitching, I don’t see us going very far

 

But I have been wrong before believe it or not.

 

That's what happens when you have a garbage pen and return on 1 out of 5 starting pitchers from the prior year (Porcello and Price went bye bye, Sale and ERod were on IL). The offense is NOT the problem.

[notin]

That's what happens when you have a garbage pen and return on 1 out of 5 starting pitchers from the prior year (Porcello and Price went bye bye, Sale and ERod were on IL). The offense is NOT the problem.

 

No but we still could make it more fun...

[mvp 78]

No but we still could make it more fun...

 

Bloom: By the way, we aren't signing any more pitchers. We're signing Ozuna, Semien and Springer.

 

That's big boy energy right there.

[notin]

Bloom: By the way, we aren't signing any more pitchers. We're signing Ozuna, Semien and Springer.

 

That's big boy energy right there.

 

 

No Realmuto?

[mvp 78]

No Realmuto?

 

I guess they could trade Vaz and Beni for a passable SP and two RP's.

[moonslav59]

Last year proved that. We had a top 3 offense and we weren’t even close to a playoff spot lol. Without pitching a team goes nowhere. You could have a historic all time leading offense and still miss playoffs. With our current pitching, I don’t see us going very far

 

But I have been wrong before believe it or not.

 

I'm a firm believer that having 2 aces vastly improves your odds at winning a ring. Having only one, like us with Sale, means it is nearly impossible to win a ring with him doing well or without new additions.

 

Of course, we need more than Sale. Had he been 100% healthy and on top of his game, last year, we'd still miss the playoffs, IMO.

 

Every year the Sox won a ring, we had 2 aces or 1 ace and another very close to one:

 

Pedro & Schill

 

Schill & Beckett

 

Lester & Lackey

 

Sale & Price

 

I don't see Eovaldi & ERod making that list for 2021 or 2022.

[notin]

I'm a firm believer that having 2 aces vastly improves your odds at winning a ring. Having only one, like us with Sale, means it is nearly impossible to win a ring with him doing well or without new additions.

 

Of course, we need more than Sale. Had he been 100% healthy and on top of his game, last year, we'd still miss the playoffs, IMO.

 

Every year the Sox won a ring, we had 2 aces or 1 ace and another very close to one:

 

Pedro & Schill

 

Schill & Beckett

 

Lester & Lackey

 

Sale & Price

 

I don't see Eovaldi & ERod making that list for 2021 or 2022.

 

But that might be a bit unfair because sometimes we hand out the "ace" label after the ring season.

 

No one would have called Lackey an ace after 2012, a season he missed for TJ, or after 2010-11, in which he pitched 61 games with a 5.26 ERA and combined for 4.2 fWAR.

 

Was he any more of an ace then than ERod is now? (Hint: ERod had 5.9 fWAR in his last two seasons before missing 2020. So, no. Lackey was not.)

[Bellhorn04]

But that might be a bit unfair because sometimes we hand out the "ace" label after the ring season.

 

No one would have called Lackey an ace after 2012, a season he missed for TJ, or after 2010-11, in which he pitched 61 games with a 5.26 ERA and combined for 4.2 fWAR.

 

Was he any more of an ace then than ERod is now? (Hint: ERod had 5.9 fWAR in his last two seasons before missing 2020. So, no. Lackey was not.)

 

You're right. It's after-the-fact labeling.

[moonslav59]

But that might be a bit unfair because sometimes we hand out the "ace" label after the ring season.

 

No one would have called Lackey an ace after 2012, a season he missed for TJ, or after 2010-11, in which he pitched 61 games with a 5.26 ERA and combined for 4.2 fWAR.

 

Was he any more of an ace then than ERod is now? (Hint: ERod had 5.9 fWAR in his last two seasons before missing 2020. So, no. Lackey was not.)

 

Good point, but we sure signed him to be close to an ace. Yes, we had to wait a few years to see him put up numbers like one, but the guy did have a history of pitching like an ace or solid #2.

 

Some feel he was pitching hurt his first season with BOS, and missing a season with injury certainly takes away from "the ace" label, but to me, he was near an ace.

 

One could say a healthy ERod is, too, and to me, we'd need both him and Sale pitching like aces to win in 2022.

 

Eovaldi does not have long enough stretches of greatness to have any hope he becomes and ace in 2022. We aren't winning a ring, IMO, with a staff headed by Eovaldi & ERod. We need Sale, and that was my point.

[notin]

Eovaldi is an ace in paycheck only. He cannot stay healthy enough to actually be one...

[moonslav59]

You're right. It's after-the-fact labeling.

 

He was labelled an ace or solid #2, until he got hurt.

 

He still had "the ace" in him, it just didn't come out, again, until 2013 and beyond. It's not like 2013 was a career best season.

 

He led the league in ERA in 2007 and had 5 straight seasons with an ERA+ of between 115 and 150 before joining the team.

 

If I had called Buchholz an ace for going 12-1 1.75, you'd be right saying "after-the-fact."

Edited January 14, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

He was labelled an ace or solid #2, until he got hurt.

 

He still had "the ace" in him, it just didn't come out, again, until 2013 and beyond. It's not like 2013 was a career best season.

 

Well, I think we only call him an "Ace" because of his post-season performance, especially the game against Verlander. During the regular season, he was actually rather vanilla. Losing W-L record. 2.5 fWAR. Good ERA, but his 2 of his next 3 seasons were better...

Edited January 14, 2021 by notin