2021 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Taking up a 40 man spot for the next 2+ years while he's in the minors doesn't seem like a great idea to me. I don't think his ceiling is front end starter anymore.

 

I agree, and that's one reason I think the two players we can afford to trade, this summer, are Chavis & Groome. We may not get much in return, as other GMs can see whatwe see, but we should be able to get a decent saalry dump or two for those two and still stay under the tax line.

 

I had Ward on that list, too, but the TJS he just under went makes him untradeable.

 

Word is, Ward won't even need protection from Rule 5 due to the surgery.

[Hugh2]

Taking up a 40 man spot for the next 2+ years while he's in the minors doesn't seem like a great idea to me. I don't think his ceiling is front end starter anymore.

 

Why has his ceiling changed? what do we have to go on? it's not like he's sucked, he's literally been injured. I say you give him until the end of the year and why not? he doesn't have to be added right now.

 

Groome is probably the one prospect in the entire Red Sox system whos value can shoot right back up or crater to nothing depending on what he does this year. He was the consensus top talent in the 2016 draft, if he can put it all together and have a good season why not take that chance? or at least entertain it.

 

Groome will not be protected unless he climbs a steep hill, I will admit that, and if he rebuilds some value he can be part of a trade too. But, I don't think keeping him if he starts to show promise is a bad idea either.

[moonslav59]

Why has his ceiling changed? what do we have to go on? it's not like he's sucked, he's literally been injured. I say you give him until the end of the year and why not? he doesn't have to be added right now.

 

Groome is probably the one prospect in the entire Red Sox system whos value can shoot right back up or crater to nothing depending on what he does this year. He was the consensus top talent in the 2016 draft, if he can put it all together and have a good season why not take that chance? or at least entertain it.

 

Groome will not be protected unless he climbs a steep hill, I will admit that, and if he rebuilds some value he can be part of a trade too. But, I don't think keeping him if he starts to show promise is a bad idea either.

 

I'd rank Seabold ahead of Groome, but he's on the IL.

 

Bello is better but farther away. Song cannot play. Houck and Whitlock are already ML ready and tested. Mata and Ward have has TJS.

 

Our minor league pitching is still messed up.

 

BTW, soxprospects.com had Groome ranked 1st in April 2018, 3rd in October '18 and '19, 8th in summer '20 and 12th in Oct '20.He is 14th, now.

 

Part of the reason for that is all the nice additions to the farm, we've made, but several in-system prospects have leap-frogged him over the last 2-3 years.

Edited June 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Why has his ceiling changed? what do we have to go on? it's not like he's sucked, he's literally been injured. I say you give him until the end of the year and why not? he doesn't have to be added right now.

 

Groome is probably the one prospect in the entire Red Sox system whos value can shoot right back up or crater to nothing depending on what he does this year. He was the consensus top talent in the 2016 draft, if he can put it all together and have a good season why not take that chance? or at least entertain it.

 

Groome will not be protected unless he climbs a steep hill, I will admit that, and if he rebuilds some value he can be part of a trade too. But, I don't think keeping him if he starts to show promise is a bad idea either.

 

He's already on the 40 man this year while toiling in Greenville...

[jacksonianmarch]

Groome is going to be DFA’d this year, IMO. He’s damaged goods. Command not there. For a guy with a ton of K’s, he gets hit hard. He’s had a 3.38ERA in June, but that comes with a 1.6WHIP. You can hold him if you’re in a bridge year, but with a team currently holding a PO position and looking to add, his 40 man spot is incredibly tenuous

[moonslav59]

Groome is going to be DFA’d this year, IMO. He’s damaged goods. Command not there. For a guy with a ton of K’s, he gets hit hard. He’s had a 3.38ERA in June, but that comes with a 1.6WHIP. You can hold him if you’re in a bridge year, but with a team currently holding a PO position and looking to add, his 40 man spot is incredibly tenuous

 

I think he has trade value, although minimum.

[moonslav59]

He's already on the 40 man this year while toiling in Greenville...

 

Why have they not moved him to AA?

[Hugh2]

Why have they not moved him to AA?

 

If he pitches all year and stays healthy they’ll call him up to Portland. If he legit takes a turn for the better he’ll be knocking on the door at some point next year.

[Hugh2]

Groome is going to be DFA’d this year, IMO. He’s damaged goods. Command not there. For a guy with a ton of K’s, he gets hit hard. He’s had a 3.38ERA in June, but that comes with a 1.6WHIP. You can hold him if you’re in a bridge year, but with a team currently holding a PO position and looking to add, his 40 man spot is incredibly tenuous

 

He walked 2 guys on 8 straight pitches yesterday, the pitching coach came to the mound and he then proceeded to strike out the side. Whatever he was dealing with appears to be fixable. Young pitchers struggling with control is not rare, he’s never had a full season developmentally, so let’s see what happens.

[Hugh2]

If Groome sucked for 4 years then it’s an easy decision to release him. But he’s had an insane amount of bad luck added to a

Missed Covid hear that has delayed his development.

 

At one point he was the top pitching prospect in a draft, with TOTR potential and a workhorse frame you dream on.

 

If he’s showing signs that he can stay healthy you let him pitch for a year and see what he can show you. There’s still a ton of upside there.

Outside of a trade for top talent would we want to add to the 40 man right now who has more potential than Groome if he is finally putting it together.

[mvp 78]

Why have they not moved him to AA?

 

He hasn't dominated at Greenville yet.

[mvp 78]

Groome is going to be DFA’d this year, IMO. He’s damaged goods. Command not there. For a guy with a ton of K’s, he gets hit hard. He’s had a 3.38ERA in June, but that comes with a 1.6WHIP. You can hold him if you’re in a bridge year, but with a team currently holding a PO position and looking to add, his 40 man spot is incredibly tenuous

 

I think you could trade him off to a team like the Pirates who could give you a meager return rather than just DFA'ing him.

[Hugh2]

Heres a good way of looking at it. Jason Groomes trade value now, vs. his potential trade value in the future.

 

Scenario A: Groome is finally healthy, and can string together a full season of development he could restore his status as one of the more promising pitching talents in the minors. His value is sky-high.

 

Scenario B: Groome gets injured again, or never gains back the potential he flashed as the top-ranked prospect in the 2016 draft. He has no value.

 

The difference between value of what Groome is now and scenario A is astronomically high. The difference in value between what Groome is now and scenario B is negligible. At this point, you are better off sticking with him throughout the 2021 season and seeing what he becomes now that it appears he might finally be healthy and actually give you some innings to see what he can become.

[moonslav59]

Heres a good way of looking at it. Jason Groomes trade value now, vs. his potential trade value in the future.

 

Scenario A: Groome is finally healthy, and can string together a full season of development he could restore his status as one of the more promising pitching talents in the minors. His value is sky-high.

 

Scenario B: Groome gets injured again, or never gains back the potential he flashed as the top-ranked prospect in the 2016 draft. He has no value.

 

The difference between value of what Groome is now and scenario A is astronomically high. The difference in value between what Groome is now and scenario B is negligible. At this point, you are better off sticking with him throughout the 2021 season and seeing what he becomes now that it appears he might finally be healthy and actually give you some innings to see what he can become.

 

There are other factors, not even counting that the "sky high" value might be pushing it a bit.

 

We have a bunch of rule 5 players, this winter and should be looking at adding at least the same amount of free agents we lose.

 

Our 40 man roster depth has improved a lot, and although we still have a few player we can cut loose or trade, I'm thinking we'll want to trade Groome at some point, before he can show his true value.

[Hugh2]

There are other factors, not even counting that the "sky high" value might be pushing it a bit.

 

We have a bunch of rule 5 players, this winter and should be looking at adding at least the same amount of free agents we lose.

 

Our 40 man roster depth has improved a lot, and although we still have a few player we can cut loose or trade, I'm thinking we'll want to trade Groome at some point, before he can show his true value.

 

Fair, but what is his "true value"? because his value is really low right now. If you could put his value on a 1-10 scale, where 10 is what his value could become and 0 is no value, he's probably at a 2 right now. So his value can't go much lower but it could go sky high. I'm not against trading him by any means but if he slides up that scale by the end of the year then yes he could get you more in a trade than he could right now.......but, why wouldn't we want to protect him at that point and see what we have in him.

 

I suppose the argument I'm trying to make is IF he performs well this year, there is a good argument for protecting him and keeping him. That doesn't make it the solid correct decision by any means only that it's justifiable.

[moonslav59]

Fair, but what is his "true value"? because his value is really low right now. If you could put his value on a 1-10 scale, where 10 is what his value could become and 0 is no value, he's probably at a 2 right now. So his value can't go much lower but it could go sky high. I'm not against trading him by any means but if he slides up that scale by the end of the year then yes he could get you more in a trade than he could right now.......but, why wouldn't we want to protect him at that point and see what we have in him.

 

I suppose the argument I'm trying to make is IF he performs well this year, there is a good argument for protecting him and keeping him. That doesn't make it the solid correct decision by any means only that it's justifiable.

 

I don't think GMs place value on just what you have done, lately. They know he has the upside you touched on.

 

He has higher value, now, than many think he does. Of course, if he pitches very well for the next 6 weeks, maybe it goes up some. If we keep him, and he does better and better as he rises up the levels, then sure, his value increases, but I think it's not all that low, now.

 

BTV is not an expert at establishing trade value, but here is how they currently value our prospects and rookies:

 

48.5 Casas

39.7 Duran

24.7 Downs

10.8 Jimenez

9.9 Mata

8.5 R Hernandez

7.9 Houck

6.8 Yorke

6.0 Seabold

4.3 Groome

3.8 Song

3.8 Ward (TJS)

3.3 Bello, Ramirez, Winckowski

3.0 Rosario

 

I'd rather have Song, Bello or Winckowski than Groome, but these guys rate him more highly.

 

Maybe some GM does, too.

[moonslav59]

Duran 0-5

Downs 0-4

Cordero 1-3, BB, rbi

Gossett shelled

 

Winckowski only goes 3 with Portland (6H, 2BB, 4ER)

Matheney 3-4, HR, BB, 3 rbi

Fitzgerald 2-1, HR, 2BB

 

Greenville was losing 5-0 in the 9th and tied it on a double by Koss. Howlett wins it with a bases loaded walk!

 

[a700hitter]

Yuck!

[notin]

Fair, but what is his "true value"? because his value is really low right now. If you could put his value on a 1-10 scale, where 10 is what his value could become and 0 is no value, he's probably at a 2 right now. So his value can't go much lower but it could go sky high. I'm not against trading him by any means but if he slides up that scale by the end of the year then yes he could get you more in a trade than he could right now.......but, why wouldn't we want to protect him at that point and see what we have in him.

 

I suppose the argument I'm trying to make is IF he performs well this year, there is a good argument for protecting him and keeping him. That doesn't make it the solid correct decision by any means only that it's justifiable.

 

The main argument for keeeping him is he won’t get much back in a trade.

 

Blooms turns 23 in August. So he is still young. But in the 5 minor league seasons since he was drafted, he’s thrown a TOTAL of 95 innings, with 55 of them coming in one year. And that was back in 2017. He has pitched so infrequently that no other stats matter. Nothing can be learned from 95 innings spanning 6 years, except that the pitcher is never healthy.

 

He’s more likely to get DFA’d than traded for anything useful…

[Bellhorn04]

The main argument for keeeping him is he won’t get much back in a trade.

 

Blooms turns 23 in August. So he is still young. But in the 5 minor league seasons since he was drafted, he’s thrown a TOTAL of 95 innings, with 55 of them coming in one year. And that was back in 2017. He has pitched so infrequently that no other stats matter. Nothing can be learned from 95 innings spanning 6 years, except that the pitcher is never healthy.

 

He’s more likely to get DFA’d than traded for anything useful…

 

Is he healthy now?

[mvp 78]

The main argument for keeeping him is he won’t get much back in a trade.

 

Blooms turns 23 in August. So he is still young. But in the 5 minor league seasons since he was drafted, he’s thrown a TOTAL of 95 innings, with 55 of them coming in one year. And that was back in 2017. He has pitched so infrequently that no other stats matter. Nothing can be learned from 95 innings spanning 6 years, except that the pitcher is never healthy.

 

He’s more likely to get DFA’d than traded for anything useful…

 

Blooms?

[mvp 78]

Nick Yorke is hitting 469/525/994 in June. No homers yet, but that should come once he gets more time in the weight room. This comes after a dreadful May (didn't have a senior HS season last year).

[a700hitter]

Nick Yorke is hitting 469/525/994 in June. No homers yet, but that should come once he gets more time in the weight room. This comes after a dreadful May (didn't have a senior HS season last year).

I know people who have seen this kid play. His bat is very highly regarded.

[Hugh2]

Yorke was a highschool hitter which is the riskiest pick in the draft after HS pitchers. I like the pick but it's what it's, high risk high reward. I do remember listening to a Soxprospects podcast where they had heard from the Sox F.O. that they viewed Yorke as a kid who had the potential to move up higher in the draft given more time. Last year was a weird year in that they didn't have a season. You're kind of seeing the same thing play out this year in the draft with guys like Khalil Watson getting some last-minute helium.

 

Nice to see him turn it on, it will intriguing to follow his (hopefully) path to the majors over the next few years.

[moonslav59]

I was beginning to wonder/worry about our last two drafts.

 

The 2019 one was never supposed to bring us anything great, as our first pick was #43, and the best player we took (Noah Song) still has military commitments, but Matthew Lugo, Cameron Cannon and Chris Murphy all still have some promise left in them, although none look like greats.

 

The 2020 draft, where we lost our 2nd rounder for sign stealing, and Bloom's first draft is starting to look a little better, but still not all that great.

17. Nick Yorke

89. Blaze Jordan

118. Wu-Yelland

148. Shane Drohan

 

Current soxprospects.com rankings for 2019-2020 drafts and IFAs:

 

10. Yorke

12. Song

15. Lugo

18. Jordan

23. Murphy

27. Blalock

28. Drohan

37. Cannon

38. Bleis '21 IFA

45. Wu-Yelland

 

If we had known the last two drafts would only produce 4 top 20 team prospects and no top 9, we'd have thought our farm would have sucked.

 

Some trades and rule 5 picks, as well as some nice 2018pick-ups have been the driver to our farm's significant improvement.

 

A rise bigger and faster than I expected.

[Hugh2]

Way way way too early to judge the 2020 draft and even the 2019 one. Some of these guys haven’t even played a game in the minors yet because last season was canceled. It takes several years to truly judge a draft, longer for drafts when that have more younger guys too.

[moonslav59]

Way way way too early to judge the 2020 draft and even the 2019 one. Some of these guys haven’t even played a game in the minors yet because last season was canceled. It takes several years to truly judge a draft, longer for drafts when that have more younger guys too.

 

Very true, but many other teams have players drafted in 2019 and 2020 in the top 100 prospects list.

 

None of ours are even close. Yorke might be top 200.

[notin]

Blooms?

 

 

I’m on a Typo Tear lately.

 

Maybe I should start game threads…

[notin]

Is he healthy now?

 

29 IP already this year, making it his second most active season.

 

But I have many well-supported doubts about him reaching his lofty career high of 55…

[notin]

Very true, but many other teams have players drafted in 2019 and 2020 in the top 100 prospects list.

 

None of ours are even close. Yorke might be top 200.

 

I never liked how some of these ranking organizations put players in their top 100 lists prior to playing their first minor league game. But they have their methods….