2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[harmony]

The Red Sox reportedly are among three finalists for Japanese righthander Kohei Arihara:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/report-padres-rangers-red-sox-are-finalists-for-kohei-arihara.html

 

Arihara is a year older than Yusei Kikuchi was two years ago when the lefthander signed with the Seattle Mariners. Their lines from Japan's Pacific League:

 

KA 129 G, 836 IP, 3.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.23 K/BB. 817 H, 626 K, 194 BB

YK 195 G, 1010.2 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.43 K/BB, 810 H, 903 K, 371 BB

The Texas Rangers reportedly sign Japanese righthander Kohei Arihara:

 

[moonslav59]

The Texas Rangers reportedly sign Japanese righthander Kohei Arihara:

 

 

We've been runner-ups, recently.

[Kimmi]

I certainly don't know what the plan is, but I do think they need to make a splash and come up with a big , impact signing. The " throw it against the wall and see if it sticks " signings are just not enough to even warm up the old hot stove.

 

This brings us back to the Theo/Lucchino debate of whether teams should be built to provide the most wins for value or to put the most fans in the seats. Shiny new toys appeal to fans, for sure. Are they the best approach to building a team and a franchise? I don't think so.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the final deal was worth $7 mil over 2 years then the Sox didn’t really want him

[Elktonnick]

This brings us back to the Theo/Lucchino debate of whether teams should be built to provide the most wins for value or to put the most fans in the seats. Shiny new toys appeal to fans, for sure. Are they the best approach to building a team and a franchise? I don't think so.

 

For a host of reasons arising from the singular fact that no one knows when fans will be allowed back in the stands, now is the best time to rebuild the team using the slow and steady approach Bloom seems to be employing. Fans simply need to be patient.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the final deal was worth $7 mil over 2 years then the Sox didn’t really want him

 

Well, starting to sense a trend. That's twice in the past week Boston's efforts to sign a pitcher has been described as "aggressive" -- after the guy signs with someone else.

 

All that flexibility with all that Mookie money and they still get outbid by Texas (watch, someone will now bring up ARod, circa two decades ago). Maybe Bloom and Co. have a list of names on a large whiteboard with dollar limits on each... or they're not as desperate as those of us who choose to watch this club, since perhaps they're waiting on bigger fish to bite?

[moonslav59]

If the final deal was worth $7 mil over 2 years then the Sox didn’t really want him

 

Maybe they wanted him a lot but did not think he was worth that much, or think they can get someone better for the same coin.

 

Also, do we know the guy signed with the highest bidder?

[moonslav59]

Well, starting to sense a trend. That's twice in the past week Boston's efforts to sign a pitcher has been described as "aggressive" -- after the guy signs with someone else.

 

All that flexibility with all that Mookie money and they still get outbid by Texas (watch, someone will now bring up ARod, circa two decades ago). Maybe Bloom and Co. have a list of names on a large whiteboard with dollar limits on each... or they're not as desperate as those of us who choose to watch this club, since perhaps they're waiting on bigger fish to bite?

 

Only a small fraction of the quality players available, right now, including trade candidates have been acquired.

 

We need to let the winter play out. I'm thrilled to know we are being "aggressive." Most teams are being passive or aggressively trying to dump quality players.

 

My sense is that by winter's end, there will be a lot of bargain basement deals, even if just 1 year deals, where Bloom can work his magic.

[jacksonianmarch]

Maybe they wanted him a lot but did not think he was worth that much, or think they can get someone better for the same coin.

 

Also, do we know the guy signed with the highest bidder?

 

It’d be an insult to the posting team to accept less money, so I’d be shocked if he signed with a lower bidder.

 

I’m just wondering if Bloom wanted him at all. If he ends up a reliable back end starter, then he’s worth far more than $3.6 mil per year

[notin]

It’d be an insult to the posting team to accept less money, so I’d be shocked if he signed with a lower bidder.

 

I’m just wondering if Bloom wanted him at all. If he ends up a reliable back end starter, then he’s worth far more than $3.6 mil per year

 

It is very possible his interest was overstated. If this guy is like, say, Kikuchi, the Sox might be better off with Matt Andriese on a 1 year deal...

[moonslav59]

It’d be an insult to the posting team to accept less money, so I’d be shocked if he signed with a lower bidder.

 

I’m just wondering if Bloom wanted him at all. If he ends up a reliable back end starter, then he’s worth far more than $3.6 mil per year

 

I guess that the amount he signed for shows he's not viewed as a "middle of rotation starter" like MLBTR called him.

[jacksonianmarch]

There hasn’t been a lot of success with Asian pitchers translating to the bigs. No big ones since Darvish and Tanaka. Interestingly, there have been more American pitchers going abroad and coming back effective than Asian pitchers coming over.

[notin]

There hasn’t been a lot of success with Asian pitchers translating to the bigs. No big ones since Darvish and Tanaka. Interestingly, there have been more American pitchers going abroad and coming back effective than Asian pitchers coming over.

 

There have been so few pitchers - maybe less than3 per season on average - who come over Asia that evaluating the imports is hampered by the small sample size.

 

That said, the Asian import relief pitchers have had numerous success stories, like Koji Uehara, Kasahiro Sasaki, Taki Saito, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, and Hideki Okajami, and probably a few others...

[harmony]

It is very possible his interest was overstated. If this guy is like, say, Kikuchi, the Sox might be better off with Matt Andriese on a 1 year deal...

In nine starts this year Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi posted 1.1 fWAR, valued at $9 million. Prorated to the 32 starts Kikuchi made in 2019, that works out to 3.9 fWAR, which in 2019 was valued at $31 million.

 

Needless to mention but Kikuchi would have led all Red Sox pitchers in fWAR this year ... but that's a low hurdle.

[notin]

In nine starts this year Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi posted 1.1 fWAR, valued at $9 million. Prorated to the 32 starts Kikuchi made in 2019, that works out to 3.9 fWAR, which in 2019 was valued at $31 million.

 

Needless to mention but Kikuchi would have led all Red Sox pitchers in fWAR this year ... but that's a low hurdle.

 

Unless the Sox also get to prorate their fWAR. How does Kikuchi fare vs Tanner Houck in that regard?

[harmony]

Unless the Sox also get to prorate their fWAR. How does Kikuchi fare vs Tanner Houck in that regard?

The small sample size of three starts disqualifies Tanner Houck.

 

Sorry.

 

BTW this year Yusei Kikuchi finished third among Seattle pitchers as lefties Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Kikuchi combined for 4.7 fWAR, valued at $37.4 fWAR, in 30 starts.

Edited December 26, 2020 by harmony

[notin]

The small sample size of three starts disqualifies Tanner Houck.

 

Sorry.

 

BTW this year Yusei Kikuchi finished third among Seattle pitchers as lefties Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Kikuchi combined for 4.7 fWAR, valued at $37.4 fWAR, in 30 starts.

 

Please be careful.

 

Next time you move the goal posts that quickly, someone might get hurt

[a700hitter]

We've been runner-ups, recently.

We landed Steven Gonzales (sp) and Matt Andriese (sp). Why are you complaining? The rotation is looking to be a deeper pile of garbage than the 2020 rotation.

[moonslav59]

We landed Steven Gonzales (sp) and Matt Andriese (sp). Why are you complaining? The rotation is looking to be a deeper pile of garbage than the 2020 rotation.

 

I'm not actually complaining.

 

I'm glad Bloom is waiting for the real bargains.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In nine starts this year Seattle lefthander Yusei Kikuchi posted 1.1 fWAR, valued at $9 million. Prorated to the 32 starts Kikuchi made in 2019, that works out to 3.9 fWAR, which in 2019 was valued at $31 million.

 

Needless to mention but Kikuchi would have led all Red Sox pitchers in fWAR this year ... but that's a low hurdle.

 

Hurdle, ha. That metaphor collapses to the height of an ant-hill (and not fire ants). Tunnel?

[Kimmi]

I'm not actually complaining.

 

I'm glad Bloom is waiting for the real bargains.

 

In Bloom we trust.

 

We'll get there.

[moonslav59]

In Bloom we trust.

 

We'll get there.

 

By all accounts, Bloom is working hard to fine the right pieces needed to get us back to the top.

 

It may take some time, but I think we'll do pretty good along the way to our next ring.

[a700hitter]

I'm not actually complaining.

 

I'm glad Bloom is waiting for the real bargains.

A bigger bargain than Andriese and Gonsalves?

[moonslav59]

A bigger bargain than Andriese and Gonsalves?

 

Of course. Those were depth signings you really have very little faith in Bloom.

[a700hitter]

Of course. Those were depth signings you really have very little faith in Bloom.

I don't have much faith in him. If the team goes north with 5 stating pitchers in March that would be a huge improvement.

[Elktonnick]

I don't have much faith in him. If the team goes north with 5 stating pitchers in March that would be a huge improvement.

 

If any team goes north in March it WOULD be a huge accomplishment. But don't hold your breath.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not sure of that. MLB really should consider either shortening the season, compressing the season or shifting the season. No way we should start around April 1. May 1 is the smarter play

[Elktonnick]

May 1st would be a stretch IMHO. Dr Fauci et al are basically saying that we shouldn't expect normality before fall. In any event, last year's shortened season was accomplished by limiting inter city travel. Any season where teams play more than 90 games will require expanded travel presenting exponentially greater logistical challenges. I just don't think it is realistic to expect anything approaching a normal baseball season in 21. While there will be baseball, no one involved at any level can say what the season will look like or how many games will be played, at this point in time.

[Bellhorn04]

May 1st would be a stretch IMHO. Dr Fauci et al are basically saying that we shouldn't expect normality before fall. In any event, last year's shortened season was accomplished by limiting inter city travel. Any season where teams play more than 90 games will require expanded travel presenting exponentially greater logistical challenges. I just don't think it is realistic to expect anything approaching a normal baseball season in 21. While there will be baseball, no one involved at any level can say what the season will look like or how many games will be played, at this point in time.

 

If they can pull off a full NFL season, I don't see why they can't pull off a full MLB season that doesn't start for another 3-4 months.

[notin]

If they can pull off a full NFL season, I don't see why they can't pull off a full MLB season that doesn't start for another 3-4 months.

 

Because the owners will fight it to reduce expenses...