2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[moonslav59]

The easy thing to say is "Henry is cheap. He doesn't want to spend anymore. This is a second rate ballclub." All the chatter about the Sox already losing the Betts trade and that every single day there is no FA signing is an affront to the fanbase just lacks critical thinking.

 

Don't stop: you're on a roll!

[mvp 78]

Word is Pitt is trying to move Stallings ©, Frazier (2B) and a SP'er Musgrove or Taillon.

 

If we can get a third team involved (Philly? STL?) that will send prospects to Pitt along with maybe 1 or 2 second tier prospects from us, maybe we can get what we need without leaving a gaping hole at catcher.

 

Hoping for a 3 team trade seems like a fool's errand.

[mvp 78]

Don't stop: you're on a roll!

 

Rolling towards 40k high quality posts. No filler here!

[moonslav59]

Hoping for a 3 team trade seems like a fool's errand.

 

2 separate deals could amount to the same thing.

[notin]

Word is Pitt is trying to move Stallings ©, Frazier (2B) and a SP'er Musgrove or Taillon.

 

If we can get a third team involved (Philly? STL?) that will send prospects to Pitt along with maybe 1 or 2 second tier prospects from us, maybe we can get what we need without leaving a gaping hole at catcher.

 

Word also is Pitt wants pitching prospects....

[mvp 78]

Word also is Pitt wants pitching prospects....

 

Pass. Sox need to use 2021 to see if any of their prospects can make the next jump. If they want financial flexibility, they need to be better about hoarding prospects and knowing when to move on from one.

[notin]

Pass. Sox need to use 2021 to see if any of their prospects can make the next jump. If they want financial flexibility, they need to be better about hoarding prospects and knowing when to move on from one.

 

Pitching prospects is a tough call.

 

Every team needs them. So few teams give up good ones (the Sox couldn’t get one for Betts). Yet no prospects fail in the Majors with greater frequency. The league wide desire to hoard pitching prospects actually makes little sense as it’s like deciding to hoard scratch tickets over cash.

 

Anyway, the Sox will struggle in any deal where the other team wants pitching prospects. We have no ranked ones. And maybe half a dozen total who might see MLB.

 

So how do the Sox upgrade starting pitching?

[mvp 78]

Pitching prospects is a tough call.

 

Every team needs them. So few teams give up good ones (the Sox couldn’t get one for Betts). Yet no prospects fail in the Majors with greater frequency. The league wide desire to hoard pitching prospects actually makes little sense as it’s like deciding to hoard scratch tickets over cash.

 

Anyway, the Sox will struggle in any deal where the other team wants pitching prospects. We have no ranked ones. And maybe half a dozen total who might see MLB.

 

So how do the Sox upgrade starting pitching?

 

Free Agents. Internal options. Deadline deals for talent that can help in 2022 and beyond. Wait until next offseason when better SPs are available.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The national media had fun blasting Boston for trading Betts, but I don't recall any poster here calling John Henry "cheap". However, any diehard Sox fan would be myopic if he or she hasn't noticed a drastic change in the last two offseasons, compared to the rest of this century. You can't keep saying "we're still going to be one of the biggest spenders" without any evidence.

 

There is evidence, though, that MLB drafts are less reliable than signing or trading for bonafide big leaguers. The Red Sox tanked to get that vaunted #4 overall pick next summer; here is over half a century's data of players chosen in that slot: 2 Hall of Famers -- Winfield and Larkin; 3 ace pitchers -- Kevin Brown, Kerry Wood, Alex Fernandez; 1 All-Star closer -- Gregg Olson; 4 All-Star batters -- Ryan Zimmerman, Dimitri Young, Jeffrey Hammonds, Thurman Munson. The highest the Sox ever picked was #3 in 1967, when they chose righty Mike Garman. The #4 guy was the one that got away -- Jon Matlack -- who became a lefty stud for the Mets for five years.

 

That's 11 stars in 55 years from the #4 pick. Most of the others didn't make the majors or stay very long. But at least a 1 in 5 shot at a star gives us a 20% chance at having another top player someday (if we can sign him).

 

Here's the link (obviously, some picks from the last decade still have long careers ahead):

https://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-history/mlb-draft-database/#/?pick=4

[Bellhorn04]

The national media had fun blasting Boston for trading Betts, but I don't recall any poster here calling John Henry "cheap". However, any diehard Sox fan would be myopic if he or she hasn't noticed a drastic change in the last two offseasons, compared to the rest of this century. You can't keep saying "we're still going to be one of the biggest spenders" without any evidence.

 

Are you including this offseason as one of the 'last two offseasons'?

 

In 2019 the Red Sox had the #1 payroll.

In 2020 they had the #3 payroll - obviously without doing much new spending, but contracts already in place count too!

[moonslav59]

Word also is Pitt wants pitching prospects....

 

So, we trade Vaz to Philly for Abel and something else (maybe more, if we take on Kingery's deal).

 

Then, we trade Wong plus Abel or Ward & Groome to Pitt for Frazier &N Stallings.

[mvp 78]

Are you including this offseason as one of the 'last two offseasons'?

 

In 2019 the Red Sox had the #1 payroll.

In 2020 they had the #3 payroll - obviously without doing much new spending, but contracts already in place count too!

 

Ah, but have you compared that to the 04-05 offseason where we signed all the big names and didn't let any walk out the door?!?

[moonslav59]

The national media had fun blasting Boston for trading Betts, but I don't recall any poster here calling John Henry "cheap". However, any diehard Sox fan would be myopic if he or she hasn't noticed a drastic change in the last two offseasons, compared to the rest of this century. You can't keep saying "we're still going to be one of the biggest spenders" without any evidence.

 

There is evidence, though, that MLB drafts are less reliable than signing or trading for bonafide big leaguers. The Red Sox tanked to get that vaunted #4 overall pick next summer; here is over half a century's data of players chosen in that slot: 2 Hall of Famers -- Winfield and Larkin; 3 ace pitchers -- Kevin Brown, Kerry Wood, Alex Fernandez; 1 All-Star closer -- Gregg Olson; 4 All-Star batters -- Ryan Zimmerman, Dimitri Young, Jeffrey Hammonds, Thurman Munson. The highest the Sox ever picked was #3 in 1967, when they chose righty Mike Garman. The #4 guy was the one that got away -- Jon Matlack -- who became a lefty stud for the Mets for five years.

 

That's 11 stars in 55 years from the #4 pick. Most of the others didn't make the majors or stay very long. But at least a 1 in 5 shot at a star gives us a 20% chance at having another top player someday (if we can sign him).

 

Here's the link (obviously, some picks from the last decade still have long careers ahead):

https://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-history/mlb-draft-database/#/?pick=4

 

What evidence is needed to prove we are and will be among the biggest spenders in MLB?

 

We were last year, even with the re-set, and project to be, this year too.

 

I bet we are going to spend more than 20 teams, this winter- maybe more. That'son top of already being a top 6 or 8 spending team, as we speak.

[notin]

Free Agents. Internal options. Deadline deals for talent that can help in 2022 and beyond. Wait until next offseason when better SPs are available.

 

You're begining to sound a lot like Jacko with the whole "wait until 2022" thing.

 

What exactly will be different in 2022? The free agent pitchers aren't necessarily going toi be better. Sure, Lance McCullers is mega-talented arm under 30. Is he worth it? He's never thrown 130 IP in a single season. Between him and Eovaldi, the Sox might be able to get 200 IP for a mere $40 million. Kershaw is available but he will be 34.

 

What, besides one less year of control for Devers, Bogaerts, etc. will be different? The arrival of Jeter Downs? Or Bryan Mata? Is that worth throwing away a full season over?

 

If the goal is "wait until next season," might as well just sign Bauer now. He'd presumably still be on the team in 2022.

 

The Sox will be in the exact same boat in 2022 if they just go lightly and take a cheap CF and 2B and get some filler arms to wear their uniforms, and we will be having this exact same exchange one year from now.

 

You don't improve by standing still. But you do get hit by trains that way...

[moonslav59]

You're begining to sound a lot like Jacko with the whole "wait until 2022" thing.

 

What exactly will be different in 2022? The free agent pitchers aren't necessarily going toi be better. Sure, Lance McCullers is mega-talented arm under 30. Is he worth it? He's never thrown 130 IP in a single season. Between him and Eovaldi, the Sox might be able to get 200 IP for a mere $40 million. Kershaw is available but he will be 34.

 

What, besides one less year of control for Devers, Bogaerts, etc. will be different? The arrival of Jeter Downs? Or Bryan Mata? Is that worth throwing away a full season over?

 

If the goal is "wait until next season," might as well just sign Bauer now. He'd presumably still be on the team in 2022.

 

The Sox will be in the exact same boat in 2022 if they just go lightly and take a cheap CF and 2B and get some filler arms to wear their uniforms, and we will be having this exact same exchange one year from now.

 

You don't improve by standing still. But you do get hit by trains that way...

 

I think we are expecting help from 2-3 players like Downs, Mata, Dalbec, Houck, Ward, Groome by 2022.

 

I do think our chances look better in 2022 than 2021. One would think the chances are Sale is better in 2022 than 2021.

 

I think we should look for a significant longer term addition or two this winter but also fill in some slots with shorter term deals that can be replaced and upgraded when we make the stronger push in 2022.

 

We can try to make the playoffs, this year, but going for it all would mean signing Bauer and/or trading away a few top prospects.

 

I don't think you are for either, are you?

Edited December 29, 2020 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

We can try to make the playoffs, this year, but going for it all would mean signing Bauer and/or trading away a few top prospects.

 

Could sign Kluber and Odorizzi, plus Hand or Bradley...that will add up too, mind you.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

You're begining to sound a lot like Jacko with the whole "wait until 2022" thing.

 

What exactly will be different in 2022? The free agent pitchers aren't necessarily going toi be better. Sure, Lance McCullers is mega-talented arm under 30. Is he worth it? He's never thrown 130 IP in a single season. Between him and Eovaldi, the Sox might be able to get 200 IP for a mere $40 million. Kershaw is available but he will be 34.

 

What, besides one less year of control for Devers, Bogaerts, etc. will be different? The arrival of Jeter Downs? Or Bryan Mata? Is that worth throwing away a full season over?

 

If the goal is "wait until next season," might as well just sign Bauer now. He'd presumably still be on the team in 2022.

 

The Sox will be in the exact same boat in 2022 if they just go lightly and take a cheap CF and 2B and get some filler arms to wear their uniforms, and we will be having this exact same exchange one year from now.

 

You don't improve by standing still. But you do get hit by trains that way...

 

What will be different about 2022:

 

Sox prospects will be a year older and more likely to contribute.

 

The FA class of 2022 is much better than 2021.

[moonslav59]

Could sign Kluber and Odorizzi, plus Hand or Bradley...that will add up too, mind you.

 

Signing all 4 would not make us a top contender in 2021.It would also put us significantly over the tax line in 2021, and all will probably get 2+ year deals.

 

I'm not against this plan. I'd probably sub a cheaper CF option for JBJ, but this is something I think we may end up doing.

[moonslav59]

What will be different about 2022:

 

Sox prospects will be a year older and more likely to contribute.

 

The FA class of 2022 is much better than 2021.

 

+ the chances Sale contributes significantly is higher in 2022 than 2021.

 

(We also lose Pedey's contract.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When it comes to spending, I'm not talking about total payroll (even though that's the factor in reset taxes). Obviously there are leftover commitments from the Dombrowski era...

 

... but I'm only interested in how much has been invested in the past two years by Bloom to extend (no arbs, just new contracts) or acquire players. How do the Red Sox compare to actual spending this winter and last winter vs. past offseasons in the Henry era? It would also be interesting to see where the Sox rank among other clubs in these past two offseasons.

 

Remember, they keep insisting they are going for it -- they said it last Spring and said again this past Fall...

Edited December 29, 2020 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[mvp 78]

+ the chances Sale contributes significantly is higher in 2022 than 2021.

 

(We also lose Pedey's contract.)

 

Agree on Sale.

 

On Pedroia, it's just money.

[mvp 78]

When it comes to spending, I'm not talking about total payroll (even though that's the factor in reset taxes). Obviously there are leftover commitments from the Dombrowski era...

 

... but I'm only interested in how much has been invested in the past two years by Bloom to extend (no arbs, just new contracts) or acquire players. How do the Red Sox compare to actual spending this winter and last winter vs. past offseasons in the Henry era? It would also be interesting to see where the Sox rank among other clubs in these past two offseasons.

 

Remember, they keep insisting they are going for it -- they said it last Spring and said again this past Fall...

 

Are they doing a sell off like the Cubs? If not, they are going for it. They have a high payroll already.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Are they doing a sell off like the Cubs? If not, they are going for it. They have a high payroll already.

 

They only have about $290 million left of the money they offered Mookie.

 

The Padres just signed Kim, even though they didn't need him: 4 years, $25 million. But the Rebuilding Resets can't use a 25-year infielder who can hit, run and play D for their future dreams at sustained contention?

[mvp 78]

They only have about $290 million left of the money they offered Mookie.

 

The Padres just signed Kim, even though they didn't need him: 4 years, $25 million. But the Rebuilding Resets can't use a 25-year infielder who can hit, run and play D for their future dreams at sustained contention?

 

Not every guy who has come over from Japan/Korea has succeeded, even ones with great pedigrees.

 

Maybe they just didn't like him at that price?

[vegasbob]

They only have about $290 million left of the money they offered Mookie.

 

The Padres just signed Kim, even though they didn't need him: 4 years, $25 million. But the Rebuilding Resets can't use a 25-year infielder who can hit, run and play D for their future dreams at sustained contention?

 

Excellent writeup in SoCal today about the Padre's current theory being seen in practice. Essentially, you can't have enough good players , they will make the team better whether to fill an opening or being on the bench in reserve. Kim probably has a year or so of development/adjustment into a full blown MLB player. It could be argued that the Padres are emptying their minor league system with more of the win now approach, maybe sensing that the Dodgers will have a hangover year with older players.

[moonslav59]

Agree on Sale.

 

On Pedroia, it's just money.

 

Money freed to spend elsewhere.

[notin]

What will be different about 2022:

 

Sox prospects will be a year older and more likely to contribute.

 

The FA class of 2022 is much better than 2021.

 

No.

 

The prospects might be more ready to contribute. There is no guarantee there will be a minor league season in 2021, and there is absolutely no guarantee any of them will get better. And really, how many high ceiling prospects do the Sox have above A ball that might be able to step in?

 

And the FA class for 2022 is really not all that much better, and we only know who is scheduled to be in it, not who will be. The biggest name might be McCullers, but not if Houston extends him. And even if they don't, he has never thrown 130 IP in a season. Exactly how is that class better than one that has the reigning Cy Young winner?

 

If the Sox take a pass on this year, we will be having this same conversation one year from now, but instead talking about the 2023 free agent class...

[notin]

Had they kept Grullon around, it would lead more credence to them moving on from Vaz. Hard to imagine they go into the year with Wong as the backup.

 

Grullon has been waived twice in the past 6 months. I am not so sure he makes for an adequate Plan B for a MLB team in need of a starting catcher...

[notin]

They only have about $290 million left of the money they offered Mookie.

 

The Padres just signed Kim, even though they didn't need him: 4 years, $25 million. But the Rebuilding Resets can't use a 25-year infielder who can hit, run and play D for their future dreams at sustained contention?

 

Maybe they think they can get Kolten Wong for much less? Or Marcus Semien?

 

They can definitely get Cesar Hernandez for a lot less, not to mention numerous other second basemen who all have varying pedigrees in MLB.

 

The two deepest positions in this FA market appear to be relief pitcher and 2B...

[mvp 78]

Grullon has been waived twice in the past 6 months. I am not so sure he makes for an adequate Plan B for a MLB team in need of a starting catcher...

 

I'm not saying he's a starter, just that he's a better bet to be a backup than Wong.