2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[notin]

FWIW I heard the Marlins are out.

 

Reportedly the Astros and A's are still in. And I would think the White Sox and Cleveland Baseball Team also make a ton of sense....

[mvp 78]

Reportedly the Astros and A's are still in. And I would think the White Sox and Cleveland Baseball Team also make a ton of sense....

 

Why the ChiSox?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Chavis has played all of 421 innings at 2B, or roughly a little over a quarter of a season, spread out over 2 years. It seems a tad early to call his defense there "horrific"....

 

Chavis can field a grounder; he was a left-side infielder. What he's not good at is the pivot turning DPs -- which is becoming a lost art with teams that insist on using modern shifts on every other batter. If anything, third basemen have become even more vital to a winning defense, since half the time they're manning shortstop and need the range to cover two bags.

 

If the Red Sox build a staff around strikeout pitchers (yes, another Tampa trend), then infield D matters less. Sinkerballers who induce a lot of contact crave the Pedroias of the world... if a guy like Dustin -- and his world -- even exist anymore.

[notin]

Why the ChiSox?

 

They appear to be going for it in 2021 as they acquired short-timer Lance Lynn, but (yes, the unofficial) Roster Resource lists their starting LF as Adam Engel, whose only real attribute is CF defense, so he brings very little tothe table as a starting LF. Eloy Jimenez is listed as their starting DH, and while they could easily move him to LF and fill thatthe DH role with someone like Renato Nunez or Jose Martinez or Yoenis Cespedes or any of a few other options, they have not exactly done so, despite having an otherwise aggressive (by 2020-21 standards) off-season. Maybe that is their ultimate plan, but upgrading LF over the weak-hitting Engel is certainly another possibility. Other potential DHs on their current roster are actually very weak as their bench (again, per Roster Resource) apparently has Danny Mendick, Leury Garcia and someone named Micker Adolfo, whose minor league stats indicate he is not an MLB bench candidate due to his offensive prowess. Adding a LF (or DH) and replacing Adolfo on the bench with Engel seems like a better solution for a better overall team.

 

No idea on their budget, but with Kyle Schwarber going for $10mill, Benintendi does look like a cheaper alternative. And they have solid SP depth with the very underrated Reynaldo Lopez slated for the bullpen. A swap centering around Benintendi and Lopez does work for both teams...

[moonslav59]

They appear to be going for it in 2021 as they acquired short-timer Lance Lynn, but (yes, the unofficial) Roster Resource lists their starting LF as Adam Engel, whose only real attribute is CF defense, so he brings very little tothe table as a starting LF. Eloy Jimenez is listed as their starting DH, and while they could easily move him to LF and fill thatthe DH role with someone like Renato Nunez or Jose Martinez or Yoenis Cespedes or any of a few other options, they have not exactly done so, despite having an otherwise aggressive (by 2020-21 standards) off-season. Maybe that is their ultimate plan, but upgrading LF over the weak-hitting Engel is certainly another possibility. Other potential DHs on their current roster are actually very weak as their bench (again, per Roster Resource) apparently has Danny Mendick, Leury Garcia and someone named Micker Adolfo, whose minor league stats indicate he is not an MLB bench candidate due to his offensive prowess. Adding a LF (or DH) and replacing Adolfo on the bench with Engel seems like a better solution for a better overall team.

 

No idea on their budget, but with Kyle Schwarber going for $10mill, Benintendi does look like a cheaper alternative. And they have solid SP depth with the very underrated Reynaldo Lopez slated for the bullpen. A swap centering around Benintendi and Lopez does work for both teams...

 

Makes sense, assuming we acquire 2 OF'ers after the deal is made.

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi

 

Benintendi LF

Verdugo CF

Xander SS

Devers 3B

JD DH

Dalbec 1B

Renfroe RF

Vazquez C

Chavis 2B

 

I wouldn't bat Beni and Verdugo back to back because of LRLRL, but also Beni has been dreadful at the top of the lineup. Verdugo was good there so I'd keep him #1. I also don't see Chavis as the starting 2b. He's more likely to start in AAA.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't bat Beni and Verdugo back to back because of LRLRL, but also Beni has been dreadful at the top of the lineup. Verdugo was good there so I'd keep him #1. I also don't see Chavis as the starting 2b. He's more likely to start in AAA.

 

I'm not into the L-R-L thing as much as some, but if all things are close to even, then yes.

 

I'm also not big on using someone's slot history as a big determining factor.

 

Beni is a singles hitter.

 

I like our best hitter up #2.

 

Your line-up was fine.

 

I'm not a big Chavis fan, but to me, he's better than Arroyo- overall.

[mvp 78]

I disagree on Chavis vs Arroyo. Chavis is a negative fWAR guy (bad glove and a huge hole in his swing). Arroyo is probably a 0.5 - 1.0 fWAR guy (adequate replacement).

[moonslav59]

I disagree on Chavis vs Arroyo. Chavis is a negative fWAR guy (bad glove and a huge hole in his swing). Arroyo is probably a 0.5 - 1.0 fWAR guy (adequate replacement).

 

Neither has a big enough sample size to use WAR.

 

Arroyo is a better fielder.

 

To me, Chavis has a much better bat, despite the K's (hole in his swing).

 

It's a close call, to me. Arroyo over Chavis- fine.

 

We'll probably have a better choice by opening day, anyway.

[harmony]

Neither has a big enough sample size to use WAR.

 

Arroyo is a better fielder.

 

To me, Chavis has a much better bat, despite the K's (hole in his swing).

 

It's a close call, to me. Arroyo over Chavis- fine.

 

We'll probably have a better choice by opening day, anyway.

The 2021 Marcel projections for Christian Arroyo and Michael Chavis:

 

CA 279 PA, .242/.320/.411/.731

MC 452 PA, .243/.314/.423/.737

 

Steamer projects 2021 wRC+ of 88 for Arroyo and 86 for Chavis, who is a few months younger than Arroyo.

[mvp 78]

Neither has a big enough sample size to use WAR.

 

Arroyo is a better fielder.

 

To me, Chavis has a much better bat, despite the K's (hole in his swing).

 

It's a close call, to me. Arroyo over Chavis- fine.

 

We'll probably have a better choice by opening day, anyway.

 

I'd only take Arroyo because Chavis' defense is so shaky. The offense is solid with or without Chavis. They just need to get the best defensive 2B they can find (unless they are going to surprise with Semien).

[mvp 78]

The 2021 Marcel projections for Christian Arroyo and Michael Chavis:

 

CA 279 PA, .242/.320/.411/.731

MC 452 PA, .243/.314/.423/.737

 

Steamer projects 2021 wRC+ of 88 for Arroyo and 86 for Chavis, who is a few months younger than Arroyo.

 

Chavis OPS'd 1237 over his first 58 PAs. He's only hit 671 since then. His offense is not worth the poor glovework. Moving him around the field as a super UTIL guy won't fix that issue.

[moonslav59]

I'd only take Arroyo because Chavis' defense is so shaky. The offense is solid with or without Chavis. They just need to get the best defensive 2B they can find (unless they are going to surprise with Semien).

 

I don't disagree, and I'm usually very bid on defense "up the middle," but our defense sucks.

 

It would help having Arroyo over Chavis, but I still think Chavis brings more total value- same way Bogey does at SS, depsite his less than average defense at SS.

 

Maybe I'm blinded by the HR power by Chavis:

 

31 HRs in 471 AB in 2017 (37 2B+3B)

9 HRs in 171 ABs in 2018 (14 2B+3B)

7 HRs in 70 ABs in 2019 AAA

18 HRs in 347 ABs in 2019 MLB (11 2B+3B)

 

That's 65 HRs in 1059 ABs prior to 2020.

 

OPS:

.910 in 2017

.919 in 2018

.766 in 2019 (.943 in AAA)

[moonslav59]

Chavis OPS'd 1237 over his first 58 PAs. He's only hit 671 since then. His offense is not worth the poor glovework. Moving him around the field as a super UTIL guy won't fix that issue.

 

If we went by selected sample sizes, we'd have dumped JBJ long ago.

[mvp 78]

If we went by selected sample sizes, we'd have dumped JBJ long ago.

 

The difference with JBJ is that he had multiple good samples. With Chavis, it looks like the book got out on him and he never adjusted. Until he adjusts, he'll be the 671 guy most likely.

[mvp 78]

I don't disagree, and I'm usually very bid on defense "up the middle," but our defense sucks.

 

It would help having Arroyo over Chavis, but I still think Chavis brings more total value- same way Bogey does at SS, depsite his less than average defense at SS.

 

Maybe I'm blinded by the HR power by Chavis:

 

31 HRs in 471 AB in 2017 (37 2B+3B)

9 HRs in 171 ABs in 2018 (14 2B+3B)

7 HRs in 70 ABs in 2019 AAA

18 HRs in 347 ABs in 2019 MLB (11 2B+3B)

 

That's 65 HRs in 1059 ABs prior to 2020.

 

OPS:

.910 in 2017

.919 in 2018

.766 in 2019 (.943 in AAA)

 

Xander's defense is average. I know you like to say it's below average, but he's dependable. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

I'm not sure what Chavis' MiLB #s have to do with MLB pitchers being able to exploit the huge hole in his swing.

[notin]

I'm not into the L-R-L thing as much as some, but if all things are close to even, then yes.

 

I'm also not big on using someone's slot history as a big determining factor.

 

Beni is a singles hitter.

 

I like our best hitter up #2.

 

Your line-up was fine.

 

I'm not a big Chavis fan, but to me, he's better than Arroyo- overall.

 

The L-R-L strategy was always silly, and a negative contributor to game pacing. But it could actually be important now.

 

It used to have the effect of having the LOOGY come in for one hitter and then leave the game. Or two hitters if they were both lefties. But now he is in for 3 batters minimum, so having a RHH in there makes sure that LOOGY has to face a right handed hitter in between the lefties...

[moonslav59]

The difference with JBJ is that he had multiple good samples. With Chavis, it looks like the book got out on him and he never adjusted. Until he adjusts, he'll be the 671 guy most likely.

 

Certainly possible.

 

Most players adjust, then maybe need to adjust again after a new "book is written."

 

Arroyo is at .643 career (SSS), but he has shown he can hit for average in the minors.

 

I'm just not one to put much stock in selected sample sizes, even if recent. I'm not saying I ignore them, and certainly the high K rate is worrisome and makes it more likely he may never "adjust" enough.

 

I'd still start Chavis, "tomorrow," but he'd be on a short leash, and if Arroyo seems to be looking sharp at the plate, sure.

 

Again, it's a close call, and I know there's nothing better to talk about, but this choice is not going to make much of a difference one way or the other, even if it has to be made for real by opening day.

[moonslav59]

 

I'm not sure what Chavis' MiLB #s have to do with MLB pitchers being able to exploit the huge hole in his swing.

 

Okay, 23 HRs in 493 MLB ABs. (23-24 years old)

[moonslav59]

Xander's defense is average. I know you like to say it's below average, but he's dependable.

 

I'll never agree he's even average.

 

He makes plays hit right to him. If that makes him "dependable," then good for him.

 

His offense is so plus, I can look the other way.

 

What upsets me the most about his D, is that early in his career, it looked like he started to improve, then he leveled off and maybe even got worse.

 

He's had a negative B-R dWar for 5 straight seasons.

He has a -0.1 UZR/150 since 2016 (the year after he looked like he was getting better).

He is last in DRS since 2016 at -55. (the next guy is at -35.)

 

I'm not sure how anyone can call that average. When you use the word average, it calls into play all the other SSs who play enough innings at SS. He's been pretty close to average in UZR/150 (17 out of 31 SSs with 2000+ innings since 2016 and 21 out of 41 SSs with 1500 innings since 2016). If that's all you go by, and the fact that he is dependable with balls hit right to him, maybe you can stretch to call him average, but I will always disagree on this one.

[mvp 78]

I'll never agree he's even average.

 

He makes plays hit right to him. If that makes him "dependable," then good for him.

 

His offense is so plus, I can look the other way.

 

What upsets me the most about his D, is that early in his career, it looked like he started to improve, then he leveled off and maybe even got worse.

 

He's had a negative B-R dWar for 5 straight seasons.

He has a -0.1 UZR/150 since 2016 (the year after he looked like he was getting better).

He is last in DRS since 2016 at -55. (the next guy is at -35.)

 

I'm not sure how anyone can call that average. When you use the word average, it calls into play all the other SSs who play enough innings at SS. He's been pretty close to average in UZR/150 (17 out of 31 SSs with 2000+ innings since 2016 and 21 out of 41 SSs with 1500 innings since 2016). If that's all you go by, and the fact that he is dependable with balls hit right to him, maybe you can stretch to call him average, but I will always disagree on this one.

 

Yes, good, we agree that his range is average.

[mvp 78]

@Rotoworld_BB

Kluber bidding could 'reach conclusion' this week

 

"Hearing that the Sox did make an offer to Kluber. Were in the hunt until the end."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I found it odd that Bradford said if the Sox had been in on Lindor, that he would've had to move to second. 1. Lindor was arguably the best defensive shortstop in at least the AL; 2. A few years ago on Alex Cora's Puerto Rican National team, Carlos Correa -- another shortstop better than Bogaerts -- moved to third, deferring to Lindor.

 

Latest Semien rumors indicate that he, too, would move to second if the Sox sign him. Bogie is a really good player, but he's not quite his idol, DJeter, whose hallowed status wouldn't allow ARod (a better defender) to take his position.

[mvp 78]

I found it odd that Bradford said if the Sox had been in on Lindor, that he would've had to move to second. 1. Lindor was arguably the best defensive shortstop in at least the AL; 2. A few years ago on Alex Cora's Puerto Rican National team, Carlos Correa -- another shortstop better than Bogaerts -- moved to third, deferring to Lindor.

 

Latest Semien rumors indicate that he, too, would move to second if the Sox sign him. Bogie is a really good player, but he's not quite his idol, DJeter, whose hallowed status wouldn't allow ARod (a better defender) to take his position.

 

Bradford is an idiot. I'd move Bogey if they signed Semien.

[moonslav59]

Yes, good, we agree that his range is average.

 

Not at all. In fact, that's his worst area, and it is just one component of what makes a SS average, above or below.

 

UZR/150 in not about just range.

 

Here is a breakdown of the 3 components fangraphs uses and his ranking in each (out of 27 SSs with 2500 innings at SS since 2016).

 

Range 25th at -12.6 (almost last)

 

ErrR 4th at +13.8 (he makes the plays hit to him with very few unforced errors- like I said.

 

DPR 23rd at -1.7 (not good with DPs)

 

If "dependable" means he makes very few unforced errors, fine. He does make plays other SS make due to comparative poor range. He turns less DPs than his peers.

 

No, he does NOT have average range.

[moonslav59]

Bradford is an idiot. I'd move Bogey if they signed Semien.

 

Me, too. Certainly for Lindor.

 

It's absurd to think otherwise on Lindor.

[kenmeister]

@Rotoworld_BB

Kluber bidding could 'reach conclusion' this week

 

"Hearing that the Sox did make an offer to Kluber. Were in the hunt until the end."

 

I will be very, very disappointed if we don't get him.

[moonslav59]

I will be very, very disappointed if we don't get him.

 

If we get Odorizzi, I'd be okay. I'd like to see us get both.

 

[notin]

If we get Odorizzi, I'd be okay. I'd like to see us get both.

 

 

Especially since the Sox are not getting Archie Bradley, who just signed with Philadelphia...

[Bellhorn04]

Especially since the Sox are not getting Archie Bradley, who just signed with Philadelphia...