2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, that's why I said "if" our budget is $20-25M.

 

I would not compare spending $12M on Kluber to $1M on Mazza.

 

The comp should be Kluber vs Quintana, Tanaka and a few others.

 

We might also get a couple guys like Porcello for what Kluber costs. Maybe...

 

Kluber doesnt have a comp. Equating him to guys who take the mound year in and year out isnt very accurate. Tanaka and Quintana, for the most part, are able to make 25-30 starts a year. Kluber has made 8 starts since the end of the 2018 season and turns 35 in April. There is a distinct possibility that father time has caught up with him. But his upside, when healthy, is entirely the point of a contract here. What do you have to lose? You literally threw s*** against a wall for every start of 2020. ERod is coming back, but who knows what he will look like coming off myocarditis and a year layoff. Sale isnt gonna be back til the ASB and likely wont be fully recovered from his procedure until playoff time. Eovaldi is a walking enigma who cannot stay healthy. The rest of the rotation is up in the air. I absolutely bet you Houck starts the year in the minors if only for service time manipulation. You also have to wonder if he is for real as a starter as everyone and their mother seem to comp him to high leverage late inning relievers instead of starters, but he is an option. Maybe Mata makes the next step? Maybe you end up with more Mazza/******** you saw last year. I would offer him a $5 mil guarantee with escalators that could take a 1 yr deal up to maybe $12.5 mil or so and have a mutual option attached at a high price. It is a bargain if he is good and nothing if he sucks. These are the kinds of moves I expected Bloom to make and am kinda puzzled as to why he hasnt made more of them already. Smyly and Morton were definitely the kinds of guys the sox could use and being 1 yr deals, the higher cost is worth it, IMO. But he passed on that

[harmony]

Devers seems to be improving, despite the bad stretches. Pablito got worse and worse.

 

Devers came up to the bigs a year earlier than Sandoval, too.

 

UZR/150 first 3 years over 800 innings:

 

Pablo (age 22-24)

-5.7

-0.5

19.3

(then, all negatives, except for one year)

Career -1.2

 

Devers

-5.2

2.4

n/a in 2020 (-10.6 in 475 innings)

Career -3.6

 

I'm hopeful Devers can be more like 2019 and even improve on it.

The point is that fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes for Rafael Devers.

[Bellhorn04]

The point is that fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes for Rafael Devers.

 

We are prepared for anything and everything here.

[jacksonianmarch]

The point is that fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes for Rafael Devers.

 

I dont think people should prepare for a wide range of outcomes. Devers is a placeholder for 3b before he moves over to 1b. There's no lipsticking pigs here.

[moonslav59]

I don't think the sox have a budget right now. They reset last year, so they can go over without the 50% penalty or the drop in draft pick. The main thing with the sox is going to be value.

 

In terms of just 2021, probably not, but I'm not sure henry wants a bunch of large and long deals signed.

 

Since they may view this as a rebuild year, they could also decide to push back the clock on going over by one more year and try to stay under the line again. That way, if they spend big next winter, it's only year 1 for 2022- not year 2.

 

I see a guy like Kluber fitting in with a team that could use some lightening in a bottle. For all we know, Kluber could win the Cy Young in 2021, and we still miss the playoffs.

 

He's got more upside than the guys I mentioned, but is floor is lower, too.

 

I'm not saying don't sign him, especially if we can go over the tax line by $10-19M or so, and I'm fine with a bunch of one year deals, but I'd like to see our bigger ticket items being made more with 2022 and beyond in mind.

[moonslav59]

The point is that fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes for Rafael Devers.

 

No doubt. For years I was talking about moving him to 1B.

 

I've seen enough flashes of plus defense- for long time periods- to give up on him, now.

 

That being said, he may be our 1Bman, next year.

[moonslav59]

I dont think people should prepare for a wide range of outcomes. Devers is a placeholder for 3b before he moves over to 1b. There's no lipsticking pigs here.

 

He looked very promising in 2019, on defense, so I'm not sure you can know, for sure, anything about where he ends up.

 

It's not a sure thing he follows Pablito's exercise and dietary plans.

[moonslav59]

We are prepared for anything and everything here.

 

That's all we've been doing the last few months!

[mvp 78]

No doubt. For years I was talking about moving him to 1B.

 

I've seen enough flashes of plus defense- for long time periods- to give up on him, now.

 

That being said, he may be our 1Bman, next year.

 

LF.

 

Williams to Yaz to Rice to Greenwell (should have won that MVP) to Manny to Devers

[notin]

LF.

 

Williams to Yaz to Rice to Greenwell (should have won that MVP) to Manny to Devers

 

No Troy O'leary?

[mvp 78]

No Troy O'leary?

 

No Buen O'Leary.

[Noles_1335]

put your GM hat on here and roll with it. Who is untouchable and who can we move to obtain arms for the future. Sale may come back and blow his shoulder out on the first outing out. Evo is a ticking time bomb, and Erod may take a while to regain his form.

[mvp 78]

put your GM hat on here and roll with it. Who is untouchable and who can we move to obtain arms for the future. Sale may come back and blow his shoulder out on the first outing out. Evo is a ticking time bomb, and Erod may take a while to regain his form.

 

Nobody is untouchable in my fantasy GM world. Move everyone. Obtain all the arms. Win every game 1 - 0.

 

I'm the Claude Julien of TalkSox.

[mvp 78]

@BNightengale

The #RedSox sign RHP Austin Brice to a one-year, $870,000 contract. This was his first year of arbitration eligibility.

 

He ain't getting non-tendered now.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Red Sox lose Robert Stock to the Cubs via waiver claim

[mvp 78]

Non-tender deadline is tonight, FYI.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

put your GM hat on here and roll with it. Who is untouchable and who can we move to obtain arms for the future. Sale may come back and blow his shoulder out on the first outing out. Evo is a ticking time bomb, and Erod may take a while to regain his form.

 

According to a Rays article, the Sox would only have to part with Verdugo, Casas and Houk to land Snell. I suspect it was written by a Tampa fan who cheers when Devers hits what would be a 500 foot bomb off the ceiling that the first baseman catches in foul territory.

[moonslav59]

put your GM hat on here and roll with it. Who is untouchable and who can we move to obtain arms for the future. Sale may come back and blow his shoulder out on the first outing out. Evo is a ticking time bomb, and Erod may take a while to regain his form.

 

I never think of anyone as "untouchable," but certainly there are players I'd avoid trading, unless the offer was right. (Devers is top of that list for me.)

 

It's hard to know how other GMs value our players, but to get great players, you have to give up a lot.

 

I'm not sure now is the time to trade top prospects for a #1 or #2 level SP'er. The names might be Casas and/or Downs, DHern or Mata and maybe more.

 

I'm not high on Chavis or Chatham, but my guess is not many GMs are either, and we certainly won't get a very good pitcher for just that package. Maybe Dalbec & ??? can get someone better.

 

Not many GM want to trade "arms of the future." Why would they?

[moonslav59]

@BNightengale

The #RedSox sign RHP Austin Brice to a one-year, $870,000 contract. This was his first year of arbitration eligibility.

 

He ain't getting non-tendered now.

 

This surprises me, as Brice is out of options.

 

I had him on the top of my DFA list, so that shows how little I know about how Bloom views our bubble players.

[notin]

According to a Rays article, the Sox would only have to part with Verdugo, Casas and Houk to land Snell. I suspect it was written by a Tampa fan who cheers when Devers hits what would be a 500 foot bomb off the ceiling that the first baseman catches in foul territory.

 

Well that's like when [people here expected Dustin May, Gavin Lux and Verdugo for Betts.

 

But a deal of Casas, Houck and Jeter Downs seems more reasonable. Would the Sox go for it? Would Tampa? (It does work on BTV.)

[moonslav59]

Well that's like when [people here expected Dustin May, Gavin Lux and Verdugo for Betts.

 

But a deal of Casas, Houck and Jeter Downs seems more reasonable. Would the Sox go for it? Would Tampa? (It does work on BTV.)

 

3 years of control at just $10M/yr on the lux tax is a huge plus, but I just don't see us being in a position to trade prospects for that one last big piece. That's the time you make deals like this.

[Bellhorn04]

Well that's like when [people here expected Dustin May, Gavin Lux and Verdugo for Betts.

 

But a deal of Casas, Houck and Jeter Downs seems more reasonable. Would the Sox go for it? Would Tampa? (It does work on BTV.)

 

Farm decimator!

[moonslav59]

Farm decimator!

 

We need 3 Snells and probably more.

 

We are not even close to being in the position to make a deal like this, unless Henry and Bloom plan on a spending frenzy, this winter.

 

If we sign Bauer, Hand a good CF'er and 2-3 more helpful pieces, then maybe we might think a deal like this makes us a top contender.

[Bellhorn04]

We need 3 Snells and probably more.

 

We are not even close to being in the position to make a deal like this, unless Henry and Bloom plan on a spending frenzy, this winter.

 

If we sign Bauer, Hand a good CF'er and 2-3 more helpful pieces, then maybe we might think a deal like this makes us a top contender.

 

Snell isn't good enough to justify that kind of deal anyway. He's no Chris Sale.

[moonslav59]

Snell isn't good enough to justify that kind of deal anyway. He's no Chris Sale.

 

True, but Moncada was much higher ranked than Casas. Kopech higher than Houck. Verdugo or Downs are higher than Basabe.

[Bellhorn04]

True, but Moncada was much higher ranked than Casas. Kopech higher than Houck. Verdugo or Downs are higher than Basabe.

 

I don't like the idea of trading 3 of our best prospects for a guy who has only one season with an fWAR higher than 2.7.

[moonslav59]

I don't like the idea of trading 3 of our best prospects for a guy who has only one season with an fWAR higher than 2.7.

 

Agreed. I guess the sweetner added to the deal is supposed to make up for that.

 

NOT!

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I'm a big fan of trade ideas like the one for Bumgarner and prospects. Do that one and sign Kluber, and our starting rotation will be loaded with question marks, but at least there will be potential!

[moonslav59]

Personally I'm a big fan of trade ideas like the one for Bumgarner and prospects. Do that one and sign Kluber, and our starting rotation will be loaded with question marks, but at least there will be potential!

 

That one seems rather extreme, to me, too.

 

If Bloom has some positive, inside info on Bumgarner we don't know about, it's way too risky and costly.

[harmony]

The Red Sox have kept relievers Matt Barnes ($4.4MM) and Ryan Brasier ($1.25MM) and catcher Kevin Plawecki ($1.6MM), per tweets from Nightengale, Robert Murray of FanSided and Heyman.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/players-avoiding-arbitration-12220.html