2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fantastically great return, yes!

 

Price is not worth $16M/yr. (Morton just signed for $15M/1. That's just one guy.)

 

4 years of Verdugo.

 

5 years of Downs & Wong.

 

The "value" (or cost) of having Price in Boston the final three years of his contract also pertains to more than just his stats or performance on the mound. The Red Sox -- who are facing more competition than ever for fan attention and dollars for their team (and let's face it, their sport) in New England -- really need to be conscious of making their product likeable again.

 

Losing the beloved Betts hurts, and re-signing Cora helps -- because most Sox fans will always associate him with greatness in Boston, and not his past in Houston. Finding others who fit in and thrive in this market has to be more of a factor than ever before... and maybe why signing outspoken guys like Bauer and Puig may give them pause.

[notin]

Fantastically great return, yes!

 

Price is not worth $16M/yr. (Morton just signed for $15M/1. That's just one guy.)

 

4 years of Verdugo.

 

5 years of Downs & Wong.

 

The Sox really did not have the chance to have Price for $16mill per year. Keeping him meant he was on the books for $31mill/year.

 

In his last 2 seasons, Price threw 283 IP and was worth 4.7 fWAR. In 2019 alone, Morton was worth 6.1 fWAR in 194 IP. Now Morton is 2 years older, but if he is only worth $15mill/yr, Price is not worth anywhere near $31mill year anymore.

 

and if Price continues his trend of being a 2.3-2.5 fWAR pitcher, it was time to unload what the Sox could get. In that time frame, he has been worth fewer fWAR than several current free agents, including not only Bauer, but also Jake Oridizzi, Mike Minor (who just signed with KC for 2 years at an undisclosed amount), Jose Quintana, James Paxton, Corey Kluber, and Masahiro Tanaka along with Morton, and just 0.1 fWAR more than Jon Lester. He's also posted fewer fWAR than several reportedly available pitchers including Joe Musgrove, Jon Gray and Matthew Boyd and barely ahead of Jameson Taillon and non-tender candidate Reynaldo Lopez.

 

Price's deal is replaceable at this stage of his career...

[jad]

Fantastically great return, yes!

 

Price is not worth $16M/yr. (Morton just signed for $15M/1. That's just one guy.)

 

4 years of Verdugo.

 

5 years of Downs & Wong.

 

We'll revisit this at our world series parade.

[Bellhorn04]

Fantastically great return, yes!

 

Price is not worth $16M/yr. (Morton just signed for $15M/1. That's just one guy.)

 

4 years of Verdugo.

 

5 years of Downs & Wong.

 

It was a very good return, but we can't ignore one little X factor. As it turned out, the Dodgers didn't merely acquire Betts for 1 year. They acquired him for 13 years, and precluded the Red Sox from ever seeing him in their uniform again.

[mvp 78]

We'll revisit this at our world series parade.

 

If only.

[mvp 78]

Just a reminder, the non tender deadline is Wednesday and the Rule V draft is the 10th.

 

Wonder what the next move will be...

[mvp 78]

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/11/30/21726199/boston-red-sox-nontender-deadline-arbitration-barnes-rodriguez-devers-brasier-plawecki-brice

 

Non-tender candiates:

Barnes - doubtful

Brice - maybe

Brasier - doubtful

Devers - NOPE

Plawecki - doubtful

ERod - doubtful

 

More likely they just waive some guys next week prior to the Rule V draft.

[moonslav59]

The Sox really did not have the chance to have Price for $16mill per year. Keeping him meant he was on the books for $31mill/year.

 

In his last 2 seasons, Price threw 283 IP and was worth 4.7 fWAR. In 2019 alone, Morton was worth 6.1 fWAR in 194 IP. Now Morton is 2 years older, but if he is only worth $15mill/yr, Price is not worth anywhere near $31mill year anymore.

 

and if Price continues his trend of being a 2.3-2.5 fWAR pitcher, it was time to unload what the Sox could get. In that time frame, he has been worth fewer fWAR than several current free agents, including not only Bauer, but also Jake Oridizzi, Mike Minor (who just signed with KC for 2 years at an undisclosed amount), Jose Quintana, James Paxton, Corey Kluber, and Masahiro Tanaka along with Morton, and just 0.1 fWAR more than Jon Lester. He's also posted fewer fWAR than several reportedly available pitchers including Joe Musgrove, Jon Gray and Matthew Boyd and barely ahead of Jameson Taillon and non-tender candidate Reynaldo Lopez.

 

Price's deal is replaceable at this stage of his career...

 

The difference between keeping him and trading him is $16M per.

 

Had we kept him, we'd have $16M less to spend, in theory.

[moonslav59]

We'll revisit this at our world series parade.

 

Like we'd have had a parade keeping Betts?

[moonslav59]

It was a very good return, but we can't ignore one little X factor. As it turned out, the Dodgers didn't merely acquire Betts for 1 year. They acquired him for 13 years, and precluded the Red Sox from ever seeing him in their uniform again.

 

According to many here, we were never going to sign Betts.

 

(I still think we could have, but the risk of keeping him, in hopes of signing him were too great.

 

The whole "He's going to become a FA thingy turned out to be false, so it's hard to know anything about this.)

[moonslav59]

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/11/30/21726199/boston-red-sox-nontender-deadline-arbitration-barnes-rodriguez-devers-brasier-plawecki-brice

 

Non-tender candiates:

Barnes - doubtful

Brice - maybe

Brasier - doubtful

Devers - NOPE

Plawecki - doubtful

ERod - doubtful

 

More likely they just waive some guys next week prior to the Rule V draft.

 

I think Brice will be nontendered.

 

It's not just rule 5 draftees, but any FA signing will necessitate a DFA or trade.

 

Brice may end up at AAA, if he cares to stay here. I doubt anyone claims him. Most other teams have more pressing 40 man roster issues than us.

 

My order or let go's:

 

(Recently- claimed Joel Payamps has no remaining options. I'm not sure we keep him on the 40 man all winter.)

 

1. Brice

2. Springs

3. Aybar or Wilson

4. Walden

5. Chatham or Arauz

6. Bazardo

7. Grullon

[notin]

I think Brice will be nontendered.

 

It's not just rule 5 draftees, but any FA signing will necessitate a DFA or trade.

 

Brice may end up at AAA, if he cares to stay here. I doubt anyone claims him. Most other teams have more pressing 40 man roster issues than us.

 

My order or let go's:

 

(Recently- claimed Joel Payamps has no remaining options. I'm not sure we keep him on the 40 man all winter.)

 

1. Brice

2. Springs

3. Aybar or Wilson

4. Walden

5. Chatham or Arauz

6. Bazardo

7. Grullon

 

 

Mazza might not be so secure either. He might have been the best of the Reclamation Project Pitchers from last year, but he was still a reclamation project. If Weber can clear waivers untouched, Mazza stands a good chance to as well.

 

And Valdez looks fairly borderline to me. He did outpitch his peripherals last year...

[Bellhorn04]

The difference between keeping him and trading him is $16M per.

 

Had we kept him, we'd have $16M less to spend, in theory.

 

For tax purposes, it's $15M. His AAV is $31M. The $16M we're paying is what counts for us for payroll tax. For the Dodgers it's $15M.

[moonslav59]

Mazza might not be so secure either. He might have been the best of the Reclamation Project Pitchers from last year, but he was still a reclamation project. If Weber can clear waivers untouched, Mazza stands a good chance to as well.

 

And Valdez looks fairly borderline to me. He did outpitch his peripherals last year...

 

I thought about Mazza, then forgot to list him.

 

I agree on Valdez, but I like him more than anyone on my list. (Bloom may not.)

[notin]

I thought about Mazza, then forgot to list him.

 

I agree on Valdez, but I like him more than anyone on my list. (Bloom may not.)

 

I'm not as down on Chatham and Aybar as you seem to be. Chatham might not have a high ceiling, but he at least has some MLB potetnial and all his options left. Aybar is young and relatively new to pitching and deserves more of a shot than a lot of the fungible crowd that the Sox used this season, many of whom have had multiple opportunities already.

 

Wilson does strike me as a guy with a 4th outfielder ceiling, and likely not even to reach that. Arauz is a bit redundant, but at least has the "very young" qualification that should buy him some time.

 

Not sure why the Phillies were so down on Grullion, especially with Realmuto in his last season and their fairly barren organizational catching depth. Grullion might be nothing special, but he still might have been the second best catcher in the entire system above A ball (behind Realmuto)...

[mvp 78]

I think Brice will be nontendered.

 

It's not just rule 5 draftees, but any FA signing will necessitate a DFA or trade.

 

Brice may end up at AAA, if he cares to stay here. I doubt anyone claims him. Most other teams have more pressing 40 man roster issues than us.

 

My order or let go's:

 

(Recently- claimed Joel Payamps has no remaining options. I'm not sure we keep him on the 40 man all winter.)

 

1. Brice

2. Springs

3. Aybar or Wilson

4. Walden

5. Chatham or Arauz

6. Bazardo

7. Grullon

 

Why would they get rid of Bazardo? DFA after the Rule V draft?

[mvp 78]

I'm not as down on Chatham and Aybar as you seem to be. Chatham might not have a high ceiling, but he at least has some MLB potetnial and all his options left. Aybar is young and relatively new to pitching and deserves more of a shot than a lot of the fungible crowd that the Sox used this season, many of whom have had multiple opportunities already.

 

Wilson does strike me as a guy with a 4th outfielder ceiling, and likely not even to reach that. Arauz is a bit redundant, but at least has the "very young" qualification that should buy him some time.

 

Not sure why the Phillies were so down on Grullion, especially with Realmuto in his last season and their fairly barren organizational catching depth. Grullion might be nothing special, but he still might have been the second best catcher in the entire system above A ball (behind Realmuto)...

 

Can they just outright Arauz to Portland?

[moonslav59]

For tax purposes, it's $15M. His AAV is $31M. The $16M we're paying is what counts for us for payroll tax. For the Dodgers it's $15M.

 

True, but I still view the $16M as money we'd not have to spend, had we not traded him- assuming we have a set spending limit.

 

I'd rather have Morton at $15M than Price for 2021.

[moonslav59]

I'm not as down on Chatham and Aybar as you seem to be. Chatham might not have a high ceiling, but he at least has some MLB potetnial and all his options left. Aybar is young and relatively new to pitching and deserves more of a shot than a lot of the fungible crowd that the Sox used this season, many of whom have had multiple opportunities already.

 

Wilson does strike me as a guy with a 4th outfielder ceiling, and likely not even to reach that. Arauz is a bit redundant, but at least has the "very young" qualification that should buy him some time.

 

Not sure why the Phillies were so down on Grullion, especially with Realmuto in his last season and their fairly barren organizational catching depth. Grullion might be nothing special, but he still might have been the second best catcher in the entire system above A ball (behind Realmuto)...

 

I think we will add a 2Bman- maybe CF/2B, so I think we won't need both Chatham & Arauz. If we don't add an IF'er, I'd keep both, for awhile anyway.

[moonslav59]

Why would they get rid of Bazardo? DFA after the Rule V draft?

 

Bazardo is 6th, so we won't be DFA'ing him for a rule 5 pick (or two).

 

He would only be DFA'd, if we add 6 players to the current roster.

 

Is there someone you dislike more?

[moonslav59]

Can they just outright Arauz to Portland?

 

Why not? He has options left and his rule 5 status is gone, now.

[notin]

Can they just outright Arauz to Portland?

 

Yes, but he would still remain on the 40 man roster. The issue until ST is 40 man roster spots, not 26 man roster spots...

[notin]

I think we will add a 2Bman- maybe CF/2B, so I think we won't need both Chatham & Arauz. If we don't add an IF'er, I'd keep both, for awhile anyway.

 

Oh I think it is possible neither of them sees MLB this year. But even with their low ceilings, both still have more potential than the fungible pitching crowd the Sox used last season...

[jad]

Like we'd have had a parade keeping Betts?

 

I don't know. I'm in LA right now and I can't go outside without getting run over by a championship parade. (Well, maybe the chances of one in football aren't as good as they might be, although maybe USC and UCLA can get there before BC and UMass.)

[mvp 78]

I don't know. I'm in LA right now and I can't go outside without getting run over by a championship parade. (Well, maybe the chances of one in football aren't as good as they might be, although maybe USC and UCLA can get there before BC and UMass.)

 

Clay Helton would have to get fired first.

[notin]

I don't know. I'm in LA right now and I can't go outside without getting run over by a championship parade. (Well, maybe the chances of one in football aren't as good as they might be, although maybe USC and UCLA can get there before BC and UMass.)

 

I am not so sure Betts was the difference make in Boston that he was in LA. If the Dodgers' team leaders in IP last season were Martin Perez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Ryan Weber instead of Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Julio Urias, do you think they still win a title?

[moonslav59]

Oh I think it is possible neither of them sees MLB this year. But even with their low ceilings, both still have more potential than the fungible pitching crowd the Sox used last season...

 

They both seem very similar to many players DFA'd by other clubs every year.

 

I'm not saying either or both should be valued more than mazza or valdez. Our bottom 10-12 players are all pretty close and all are "bubble players."

[moonslav59]

I don't know. I'm in LA right now and I can't go outside without getting run over by a championship parade. (Well, maybe the chances of one in football aren't as good as they might be, although maybe USC and UCLA can get there before BC and UMass.)

 

I was talking Sox parade with Betts in 2020- not ever happening.

 

The trade was a win for the Dodgers, too. I've said that all along.

 

It will be a win for us, too- ring or not.

[Bellhorn04]

I was talking Sox parade with Betts in 2020- not ever happening.

 

The trade was a win for the Dodgers, too. I've said that all along.

 

It will be a win for us, too- ring or not.

 

It might take 12 years to know for sure.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

the fungible pitching crowd the Sox used last season...

 

... I watched those games; there was nothing fun about it.