2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[moonslav59]

According to badeballtradevalues.com, these are the SP'ers with the worst negative value:

 

(Some are not on the trading block. Some are very good pitchers who are owed a lot of money.)

 

-112 Strasburg

-59 Cole

-50 Bumgarner

-45 Corbin

-33 Verlander

-28 Mikolas

-21 Cueto

-17 Greinke

-18 Sale

-12 Cobb

-11 Eovaldi

-11 Price

-10 Roark

-9 Duffy

-8 Lyles & Keuchel

-4 Miley

-3 Kikuchi, Gibson & Ryu

 

RH RP'er

-15 Jansen

-13 Familia

-11 Kimbrell & Kelly

-6 Martinez

-5 Ottavino & Harris

 

LH RP'er

-9 Miller & Britton

-8 Smith

-4 Chapman & Pomeranz

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of present and past Red Sox on that list.

[Bellhorn04]

That one seems rather extreme, to me, too.

 

If Bloom has some positive, inside info on Bumgarner we don't know about, it's way too risky and costly.

 

Depends on what prospect capital Arizona would be willing to add to make up that -50 on Bum's contract.

[moonslav59]

This trade was accepted:

 

Chavis, Chatham, Groome & Bello

 

to KC for

 

Duffy (1 yr at $15.5M but $13M on tax), Barlow (4 yrs of control), Lee (OF prospect) and Gallagher (4 yrs back up catcher- maybe trade Vaz, later?)

 

[notin]

Farm decimator!

 

My thoughts are it's a fair trade, but I don't think Tampa goes for it, and really the Sox should be hesitant, too.

 

With Tampa

1) They might not like Downs so much considering they have two very young middle infielders in MLB (Lowe and Adames) and another as the #1 overall prospect (Franco) plus a fourth (Vidal Brujan) similarly ranked to Downs.

2) Trading stars for prospects within the division is a smart move when you're a bad team and you're basically trading the best of a weak present day for the future of a division rival. In theory, they get worse as your team gets better. But Tampa is the reigning AL pennant winner, and NOT a bad team.

3) It does not even address their completely absent catching position.

 

With Boston, it is a farm killer. And because of that, the primary goal should be to get a bad contract like Kiermaier in in order to reduce the load of dirt cheap players the team needs.

 

I think the Sox need to be in talks with Pittsburgh for Taillon. And if they have to take back Polanco in order to reduce the asking price, I can support that, too...

[moonslav59]

My thoughts are it's a fair trade, but I don't think Tampa goes for it, and really the Sox should be hesitant, too.

 

With Tampa

1) They might not like Downs so much considering they have two very young middle infielders in MLB (Lowe and Adames) and another as the #1 overall prospect (Franco) plus a fourth (Vidal Brujan) similarly ranked to Downs.

2) Trading stars for prospects within the division is a smart move when you're a bad team and you're basically trading the best of a weak present day for the future of a division rival. In theory, they get worse as your team gets better. But Tampa is the reigning AL pennant winner, and NOT a bad team.

3) It does not even address their completely absent catching position.

 

With Boston, it is a farm killer. And because of that, the primary goal should be to get a bad contract like Kiermaier in in order to reduce the load of dirt cheap players the team needs.

 

I think the Sox need to be in talks with Pittsburgh for Taillon. And if they have to take back Polanco in order to reduce the asking price, I can support that, too...

 

I like Kiermaier much better than Polanco, though. Since TB might be looking at their window as being open now, adding Vaz while cutting salary has to interest them. Just not for Snell.

 

They may not be too worried about helping the Sox become a top contender during their window period. They can replace Kiermaier from within their own system, seemlessly.

 

I'm thinking Kiermaier, Chirinos & catching prospect Hernandez for Vaz.

 

I like Taillon as a target, too, and maybe we can do both deals, although adding Polanco & Kiermayer pretty much necessitates trading Beni or using an expensive platoon somewhere.

 

Then, where do we get a catcher?

[notin]

I don't like the idea of trading 3 of our best prospects for a guy who has only one season with an fWAR higher than 2.7.

 

So you wouldn’t trade them for Jack Flaherty?

[notin]

I like Kiermaier much better than Polanco, though. Since TB might be looking at their window as being open now, adding Vaz while cutting salary has to interest them. Just not for Snell.

 

They may not be too worried about helping the Sox become a top contender during their window period. They can replace Kiermaier from within their own system, seemlessly.

 

I'm thinking Kiermaier, Chirinos & catching prospect Hernandez for Vaz.

 

I like Taillon as a target, too, and maybe we can do both deals, although adding Polanco & Kiermayer pretty much necessitates trading Beni or using an expensive platoon somewhere.

 

Then, where do we get a catcher?

 

If the Sox are taking an unwanted contract back, Polanco is my second choice behind Ender Inciarte. Polanco is coming off a HORRIBLE season last year, but he was among the MLB leaders in one positive category - exit velocity. His main problem was making contact. Anyone with top tier exit velocity and massive strikeout problems makes me first think - time to update that contact lens prescription!

[Bellhorn04]

So you wouldn’t trade them for Jack Flaherty?

 

As you know, Flaherty has a significantly higher trade value than Snell, for various reasons.

 

I might consider that one.

 

But I don't like the Snell trade at all. I just don't think he's good enough to justify it.

[Bellhorn04]

Archie Bradley was non-tendered.

[Bellhorn04]

Ricardo Gibbon (Venezuelan Yankee beat writer?) suggests Kluber is close to signing with Yankees.

[notin]

As you know, Flaherty has a significantly higher trade value than Snell, for various reasons.

 

I might consider that one.

 

But I don't like the Snell trade at all. I just don't think he's good enough to justify it.

 

But Flahery also only has one season above 2.3 fWAR. And he has only pitched one less season than Snell. (His higher trade value is strongly influenced to his lower salary.)

 

Snell does only have one season above 2.7 fWAR, but he has also only pitched 157 IP in two seasons since his breakout year. In 2019, he managed to be worth 2.7 fWAR in 107 innings! It is not the talent that is the issue with Snell...

[Bellhorn04]

But Flahery also only has one season above 2.3 fWAR. And he has only pitched one less season than Snell. (His higher trade value is strongly influenced to his lower salary.)

 

Snell does only have one season above 2.7 fWAR, but he has also only pitched 157 IP in two seasons since his breakout year. In 2019, he managed to be worth 2.7 fWAR in 107 innings! It is not the talent that is the issue with Snell...

 

Yeah, agreed.

[notin]

Yeah, agreed.

 

Now for me, I just don't think the Sox have the deep farm and the players Tampa needs. Jeter Downs is an excellent trade bait and probably a guy the Sox could consider moving for a pitcher, but it won't be Snell (even if they take Kiermaier's contract). Tampa is just too flush with middle infield talent. They might not mind taking another MI but I think they would prefer a catcher, and that tells me the Dodgers (Keibert Ruiz) and the Reds (Tyler Stephenson) are both able to put together more attractive packages to acquire Snell.

 

I think the Sox need to target Jameson Taillon and sign two from Brad Hand, Hansel Robles and Archie Bradley. (It is possible that only one of them takes an offer from the Sox regardless of money as only one of them can close and all three might have the closer role as a priority. As it is their choice, I can't say that they will all be interested. But so far, this is just mesage board fodder)

 

Taillon's trade value is actually reasonable on BTV, but it is tough to gauge what player from the Sox they might want. While that site does give Downs more trade value than Taillon, it is not an unreasonable amount for a swap. And as Cherington is a notorious prospect hoarder, he might even be on board with it. Ideally, I would like to see him acquired for someone else, but not sure what Pitt needs beyond players who make little to no money. The Sox most expendable dirt cheap player is Chavis, but even with his BTV trade value actually looking reasonable at 7.5, I just don't see why any team might be interested in him.

 

Also, the Sox can probably fill the CF void with Ender Inciarte and get him for next to nothing. With the Braves being in the unenviable position of having Inciarte as their highest paid outfielder and not even starting, he should be extremely available from Atlanta.

 

That just leaves 2B (maybe?) and a LHH bench bat. And the LHH bench bat has always looked like former Bloom acquisition Brad Miller would be the perfect fit for the Sox....

[mvp 78]

From OTM, non-tendered players that the Sox may have interest in. I've highlighted the guys I'd think about targeting (though any of the relief options could fit here).

 

Infield

Hanser Alberto (BAL) would fill the hole at second base. The 28-year-old (he’ll be 28 for the entire 2021 season) wouldn’t be a dynamic signing and his ceiling is limited due to his lack of power and patience, but the high-contact hitter has been a roughly two-win player for each of the last two seasons. (That’s extrapolating 2020 over a full season.)

Travis Shaw (TOR) would provide depth at first base. A former fan favorite in Boston, this would make a ton of sense. Shaw is coming off a pair of below-average seasons at the plate so he likely won’t be commanding an every day role on the open market. The Red Sox could use some left-handed insurance behind Bobby Dalbec, though, and Shaw fits that mold.

Daniel Robertson (TB) would fill the hole at second base. There’s the obvious Bloom connection here with Robertson being a former Ray, and it was only a couple years ago that he had a 128 wRC+. That mark was down to 71 in 2019, though, before rebounding to 119 in only 24 plate appearances this past summer. Robertson will turn 27 shortly before Opening Day.

Outfield

David Dahl (COL) may have been the most surprising non-tender. The former top prospect is coming off a brutal season and has had trouble staying healthy his entire career, but he’s also been an All-Star and will be 27 next year. The Red Sox may be hesitant to sign another lefty, but the upside could be worth it here, particularly for a team building up like Boston.

Kyle Schwarber (CHC) was once one of the most intriguing hitting prospects in the game. Defense is an issue, but the power is very real and this is a chance to buy relatively low on that. That said, the idea of a defense with Schwarber in left and Andrew Benintendi in center shakes me to my core.

Eddie Rosario (MIN) was available to all teams on waivers and went unclaimed. He’s arguably the best player regardless of position on this entire list and has received MVP votes in each of the last two seasons. The biggest issue for Boston here may be that he is another lefty.

Adam Duvall (ATL) fills the right-handed potential need here. Duvall has legitimate power and has been on a 46-homer-per-600-plate-appearances pace the last couple years. That has come in a platoon role, though. Still, depending on how much they’re willing to spend this year having him in a platoon with Benintendi isn’t the craziest idea in the world if there is roster space to make that arrangement work.

Albert Almora (CHC) would probably fit into that platoon situation in some way, shape or form. He’s not a starting player but he’s a high-contact right-handed bat who can play center field.

Nomar Mazara (CHW) is a former top prospect who some people (read: me) have been betting on in fantasy for what seems like decades at this point. He’ll still only be 26 next season so it’s not hard to continue buying in, but he’s had five seasons in the majors and he’s never even been average at the plate by wRC+ and had a mark of 68 last season. He’s also another lefty.

Delino DeShields (CLE) brings a ton of speed and can cover a ton of ground in center field, but his offense has never really been that of an everyday player. This would be an underwhelming way to fill the hole in the outfield, to say the least.

Tyler Naquin (CLE) is similar to DeShields in that he is a solid defensive player but is much better utilized as a bench player than someone to play close to every day.

Starting Pitchers

Carlos Rodón (CHW) was the third overall pick back in 2014 and still had a ton of promise as recently as 2017. However, he’s never been able to take that next step and has been backtracking in terms of performance the last couple of years. He would be a decent enough reclamation project, but certainly not a top-tier target.

José Ureña (MIA) was, like Rosario above, recently available on waivers. He was the ace of the Marlins staff a couple years ago when they were at the deepest valley of their most recent rebuild, but like Rodón is a nice depth add rather than a top-tier target.

Tyler Anderson (SF) doesn’t have a ton of name recognition nor does he have big-time recent performance. That said, he’s been roughly league-average by park-adjusted ERA in four of his five major-league seasons and could be a solid plug-and-play back-end starter.

Relief Pitchers

Archie Bradley (CIN) should command a good amount of interest on the open market. He emerged as a true late-inning reliever almost as soon as he converted to relief with the Diamondbacks and while he’s not on the level of the top-tier relievers this year he’s not all that far off.

Matt Wisler (MIN) is probably the name that will get the most surprising amount of buzz for the next day or two. He came out of nowhere this past year to post a dominant 1.07 ERA with a bunch of strikeouts. I’m not sure how much I buy in, but it’s at least worth a closer look.

John Brebbia (STL) is the kind of good-not-great reliever that can be underated in the free agent market. He did miss all of 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, so that throws a bit of a wrench in things, but before that he was roughly 20 percent better than league-average by both results and peripherals for two straight years.

Keynan Middleton (LAA) made his debut in 2017 and became the Angels closer by the end of that year. He started 2018 in that role as well, but then suffered an injury that eventually required Tommy John. He’s only pitched 35 1⁄3 innings over the last three seasons combined, but the upside is still there and he’s entering his age-27 season.

Hansel Robles (LAA) is another former Angels closer, serving in that role in 2019. He’d been mostly solid for his career before this past summer, but his command tanked in 2020 and he ended the year with an ERA over 10.00.

Chasen Shreve (NYM) may be a familiar name from his days with the Yankees, but he emerged as a solid multi-inning option for the other New York team last year. This wouldn’t be the new closer, but he could be a nice low-key addition.

[harmony]

Now for me, I just don't think the Sox have the deep farm and the players Tampa needs. Jeter Downs is an excellent trade bait and probably a guy the Sox could consider moving for a pitcher, but it won't be Snell (even if they take Kiermaier's contract). Tampa is just too flush with middle infield talent. They might not mind taking another MI but I think they would prefer a catcher, and that tells me the Dodgers (Keibert Ruiz) and the Reds (Tyler Stephenson) are both able to put together more attractive packages to acquire Snell.

 

I think the Sox need to target Jameson Taillon and sign two from Brad Hand, Hansel Robles and Archie Bradley. (It is possible that only one of them takes an offer from the Sox regardless of money as only one of them can close and all three might have the closer role as a priority. As it is their choice, I can't say that they will all be interested. But so far, this is just mesage board fodder)

 

Taillon's trade value is actually reasonable on BTV, but it is tough to gauge what player from the Sox they might want. While that site does give Downs more trade value than Taillon, it is not an unreasonable amount for a swap. And as Cherington is a notorious prospect hoarder, he might even be on board with it. Ideally, I would like to see him acquired for someone else, but not sure what Pitt needs beyond players who make little to no money. The Sox most expendable dirt cheap player is Chavis, but even with his BTV trade value actually looking reasonable at 7.5, I just don't see why any team might be interested in him.

 

Also, the Sox can probably fill the CF void with Ender Inciarte and get him for next to nothing. With the Braves being in the unenviable position of having Inciarte as their highest paid outfielder and not even starting, he should be extremely available from Atlanta.

 

That just leaves 2B (maybe?) and a LHH bench bat. And the LHH bench bat has always looked like former Bloom acquisition Brad Miller would be the perfect fit for the Sox....

With the non-tender of Adam Duvall, Ender Inciarte might be a starting outfielder for Atlanta:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/braves

 

Could the non-tendered Delino DeShields provide similar defense-first production as Inciarte in center field?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/delino-deshields/11379/stats?position=OF

[moonslav59]

If the Sox are taking an unwanted contract back, Polanco is my second choice behind Ender Inciarte. Polanco is coming off a HORRIBLE season last year, but he was among the MLB leaders in one positive category - exit velocity. His main problem was making contact. Anyone with top tier exit velocity and massive strikeout problems makes me first think - time to update that contact lens prescription!

 

He has another "main problem:" defense. Unless we plan on trading Beni and putting Polanco in LF, I'd rather have Kiermaier and Inciarte. So, we'd still need a CF'er. Polanco fills no current need area.

[notin]

With the non-tender of Adam Duvall, Ender Inciarte might be a starting outfielder for Atlanta:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/braves

 

Could the non-tendered Delino DeShields provide similar defense-first production as Inciarte in center field?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/delino-deshields/11379/stats?position=OF

 

I'd be surprised if the Braves made no other moves and kept Inciarte in their starting lineup.

 

They have already been linked to Marcell Ozuna, who was an obvious success story for them in LF. Or they could return Austin Riley to LF. And they still hjave top prospect Drew Waters. Inciarte's main contribution is CF defense, which they already have covered with the much cheaper Christian Pache, who saw more playing time than Inciarte in the post-season. Nick Markakis was also starting over Inciarte throughout the entire post-season.

 

The fact that Inciarte saw 0 plate appearances in the entire 2020 post-season might be a very strong indication of his future role with that team, if he has one at all. I actually strongly suspect they will try to bring Duvall back. He clearly worked out for them. But they will try to get Duvall back for much less than his $7.1mill projected salary (per MLBTR).

 

but for the one team that has been actively signing players and going for it, I do have my very strong doubts about an Inciarte-Pache-Acuna outfield...

Edited December 3, 2020 by notin

[notin]

With the non-tender of Adam Duvall, Ender Inciarte might be a starting outfielder for Atlanta:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/braves

 

Could the non-tendered Delino DeShields provide similar defense-first production as Inciarte in center field?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/delino-deshields/11379/stats?position=OF

 

DeShields is a pretty underrated player who seems to struggle to find a home every year, but he is not a bad candidate for any team looking for a CF, and he will be MUCH less expensive than Inciarte.

 

If I has to pick a move by the Braves, one guy who just seems like a perfect fit for them is Eddie Rosario...

[moonslav59]

What time window are the most moves expected to happen?

 

It seems like a slow start to the off season.

[mvp 78]

With the non-tender of Adam Duvall, Ender Inciarte might be a starting outfielder for Atlanta:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/braves

 

Could the non-tendered Delino DeShields provide similar defense-first production as Inciarte in center field?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/delino-deshields/11379/stats?position=OF

 

IDK, I'm just not a big fan of DeShields. A speed guy who has never had 30 steals in a season? Pass.

[mvp 78]

What time window are the most moves expected to happen?

 

It seems like a slow start to the off season.

 

[moonslav59]

IDK, I'm just not a big fan of DeShields. A speed guy who has never had 30 steals in a season? Pass.

 

The career .326 OBP doesn't help, but he's never been given more than 440 PAs in any season. His 162 game average is 31 SBs.

 

His OBP the last 3 years has dipped to .317 (BA .236), but he has averaged 30+ SB's per 600 PAs over this time period.

 

His career UZR/150 in CF is just +1.5. With his speed, you'd expect better.

 

If we decided to platoon him (.717 v LHP and .640 v RHP), you kind of lose the SB advantage as he steals less bases vs lefties.

Edited December 3, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

The career .326 OBP doesn't help, but he's never been given more than 440 PAs in any season. His 162 game average is 31 SBs.

 

His OBP the last 3 years has dipped to .317 (BA .236), but he has averaged 30+ SB's per 600 PAs over this time period.

 

His career UZR/150 in CF is just +1.5. With his speed, you'd expect better.

 

If we decided to platoon him (.717 v LHP and .640 v RHP), you kind of lose the SB advantage as he steals less bases vs lefties.

 

But because he's a guy who isn't good enough to get 600 AB's, he'll never get to 30 in a season for real.

[notin]

The career .326 OBP doesn't help, but he's never been given more than 440 PAs in any season. His 162 game average is 31 SBs.

 

His OBP the last 3 years has dipped to .317 (BA .236), but he has averaged 30+ SB's per 600 PAs over this time period.

 

His career UZR/150 in CF is just +1.5. With his speed, you'd expect better.

 

If we decided to platoon him (.717 v LHP and .640 v RHP), you kind of lose the SB advantage as he steals less bases vs lefties.

 

He's just a cheap glove out there, but if that is the plan the other cheap glove options like Almora, Dyson and Marisnick are not exactly more exciting.

 

The most intriguing free agent position appears to be the corner OF market, with Ozuna, Rosario, Dahl, Schwarber, Renfroe and Puig. If the Sox plan to move Benintendi to CF, they will definitely be able to get increased production in LF with these players, all of whom are very likely to sign for less than Springer. Of course, that leaves CF as a question mark, and might require another RHH cheap glove to help Benintendi...

[moonslav59]

But because he's a guy who isn't good enough to get 600 AB's, he'll never get to 30 in a season for real.

 

Very true, but he is guy who steals bases at an over 30 per 600 PA rate.

[moonslav59]

He's just a cheap glove out there, but if that is the plan the other cheap glove options like Almora, Dyson and Marisnick are not exactly more exciting.

 

The most intriguing free agent position appears to be the corner OF market, with Ozuna, Rosario, Dahl, Schwarber, Renfroe and Puig. If the Sox plan to move Benintendi to CF, they will definitely be able to get increased production in LF with these players, all of whom are very likely to sign for less than Springer. Of course, that leaves CF as a question mark, and might require another RHH cheap glove to help Benintendi...

 

I'd rather trade Beni, despite his stock being at an all time low, than move him to CF.

 

I'd rather add a RF'er and move Verdugo to CF than Beni.

 

I'd rather sign a .600 OPS CF'er who plays great D than move Beni to CF.

 

Are you seeing a pattern in my opinions?

[Bellhorn04]

What time window are the most moves expected to happen?

 

It seems like a slow start to the off season.

 

Compared to what, though? The last two offseasons were glacially slow.

[notin]

I'd rather trade Beni, despite his stock being at an all time low, than move him to CF.

 

I'd rather add a RF'er and move Verdugo to CF than Beni.

 

I'd rather sign a .600 OPS CF'er who plays great D than move Beni to CF.

 

Are you seeing a pattern in my opinions?

 

I can agree it is not the optimum move. He was drafted as a CF, but was obviously moef to LF for a reason. and it was not due to the logjam the Sox had in CF, since they were trying anyone and everyone out there (Bradley, Betts, Castillo).

 

But on the other hand, if the Sox had a good defensive LF and put Benintendi between to good outfielders, it would lessen his impact. and if he was coupled with a RHH platoon option/defensive replacement, it would help even more. Someone like Almora or Marisnick, for example.

 

Or the Sox could sign one of the rifle-armed RF options like Puig, Eaton or Renfroe and slide Verdugo into CF. Still, if Benintendi does not turn something around, is he still a full time option in LF? Or is he a lesser version of Joc Pederson?

 

Should the Sox look into a platoon partner for Benintedi, regardless of where he plays?

[notin]

Compared to what, though? The last two offseasons were glacially slow.

 

I'm still waiting for Dombrowski to make moves from the 2019 off-season...