2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[notin]

Yes. 100%.

 

It's a no-brainer, if he's healthy, even at $14-17M/yr.

 

$8-9M is a bargain, in terms of open market value.

 

If his heart or other issues are severe enough to cast major doubt, we may walk away.

 

And the Sox might not even walk that far. Maybe they non-tender and re-sign him for less. ERod might beangry about it, but if it is the best offer he'll more than likely take it.

 

Personally, I think for the Sox an $8-9mill contract for a pitching-bereft team as a gamble is not a big deal. If ERod is alive, he is getting a tender. Worst case scenario is they waster $8-9mill on a player who doesn't pitch. Big deal. They're paying Price twice that to pitch somewhere else. And they'll paying Eovadi twice that and he's no guarantee to pitch next year either...

[notin]

Moreland might be available after all

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/padres-rumors-mitch-moreland-option.html

[Thunder]

If COVID gives ERod gang green and his arm falls off. Otherwise, he's getting tendered.

 

First of all, it's gangrene

 

Second of all, Gang Green used to be (and might still be) a nickname for the Jets. I think being affiliated with that Gang Green worse than being affiliated with the disease

[moonslav59]

Moreland might be available after all

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/padres-rumors-mitch-moreland-option.html

 

The Padres are a mess.

 

Paying him the $500K buyout makes his $3M deal, essentially only $2.5M.

 

If you can't pay him that, take the option and trade him for someone like Potts & Rosario.

[mvp 78]

And the Sox might not even walk that far. Maybe they non-tender and re-sign him for less. ERod might beangry about it, but if it is the best offer he'll more than likely take it.

 

Personally, I think for the Sox an $8-9mill contract for a pitching-bereft team as a gamble is not a big deal. If ERod is alive, he is getting a tender. Worst case scenario is they waster $8-9mill on a player who doesn't pitch. Big deal. They're paying Price twice that to pitch somewhere else. And they'll paying Eovadi twice that and he's no guarantee to pitch next year either...

 

If he's nontendered, he goes elsewhere.

[mvp 78]

Moreland might be available after all

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/padres-rumors-mitch-moreland-option.html

 

It's all coming to plan. Re-sign Mitch and Pillar.

[harmony]

If he's nontendered, he goes elsewhere.

Assuming Eduardo Rodriguez has been cleared to play baseball.

 

Or to the broadcast booth or another line of work.

[mvp 78]

Assuming Eduardo Rodriguez has been cleared to play baseball.

 

Or to the broadcast booth or another line of work.

 

He's earned over $11M so far. I bet he takes his time looking for something else to do.

[Bellhorn04]

They key word in your argument is "played"...

 

But why get a raise for playing worse?

 

Obviously there's an automatic increase factor built into the arbitration calculations.

 

And arguably E-Rod should be entitled to it too.

[moonslav59]

But why get a raise for playing worse?

 

 

Because, in theory, they were underpaid during year 1 and 2 arbs.

[Bellhorn04]

Because, in theory, they were underpaid during year 1 and 2 arbs.

 

E-Rod should also be entitled to an automatic raise.

[moonslav59]

E-Rod should also be entitled to an automatic raise.

 

My guess is, if he goes to arb, assuming he is healthy, he will get a raise.

[notin]

The Padres are a mess.

 

Paying him the $500K buyout makes his $3M deal, essentially only $2.5M.

 

If you can't pay him that, take the option and trade him for someone like Potts & Rosario.

 

No backsies!!

[harmony]

From today's chat at MLB Trade Rumors:

Ryan

4:23 As Yankees fan, what move should I be hoping the Red Sox DO NOT make this winter?

Connor Byrne

4:23 I think you need to be more worried about the Rays and Blue Jays for a little while longer. Boston's a ways off and probably won't be that active this winter.

 

Tyler

4:49 Who do you think the Red Sox target in the off-season? Names and positions please

Connor Byrne

4:50 Pitchers. They could conceivably add some innings-eating type (Jose Quintana?) and/or buy low on a reclamation project (Robbie Ray?). They're also in clear need of bullpen help, and there are tons of guys they could look to there.

Also need to do something about second base

4:51 I don't expect a very aggressive winter for them, though

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-10-15-20-9059.html

Edited October 15, 2020 by harmony

[notin]

From today's chat at MLB Trade Rumors:

 

 

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-10-15-20-9059.html

 

I've heard others say the Sox will be one of the few teams that actually do spend this off-season...

[moonslav59]

I've heard others say the Sox will be one of the few teams that actually do spend this off-season...

 

I think we spend, but we spread it out.

[Nick]

Mookie is 2 for 14 wit no extra base hits in the division championships.

 

That just illustrates what a crap shoot the playoffs are...there are no guarantees....$300M is lot of money...

[notin]

Mookie is 2 for 14 wit no extra base hits in the division championships.

 

That just illustrates what a crap shoot the playoffs are...there are no guarantees....$300M is lot of money...

 

Probably because it’s only 139 plate appearances spread out over 5 seasons, but Mookie’s never really been Mookie in the postseason. .639 OPS and 1 career home run...

[moonslav59]

All it takes is one mammoth series.

[notin]

All it takes is one mammoth series.

 

Actually, just one mammoth game.

 

If Mookie goes 5 for 5 with 3 HRs tonight - which he is perfectly capable of doing - his career postseason OPS jumps to .814...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Probably because it’s only 139 plate appearances spread out over 5 seasons, but Mookie’s never really been Mookie in the postseason. .639 OPS and 1 career home run...

 

Sometimes we have to look beyond the aggregate stats and focus on the "when", the moments that ignite -- like when SD no-hit LA through five, then Mookie ripped a double to kick-start a winning rally. Here's a long recap of Betts' '18 postseason:

 

In the '18 ALCS -- easily the Sox' most intense series -- Betts led off four of the five games with three hits and a hit by pitch, and scored the first run of the game in three straight wins. Nothing sets the tone more for a team than scoring the first run in a playoff game, and Betts did that best. He also singled, stole second and scored the first run of the first game of the World Series; LA knew it was in for it. Being disruptive on the bases is another huge asset, like later when he walked, ran around the bases and scored on a ground-out. Then there's defense -- and not just the leap on the Altuve interference call, robbing Bregman the next day, and the best throw of the postseason to nail Kemp, but all the Gold Glove sprints that made tough flies and pops look routine. Finally, casual observers point to Betts' higher-than-usual strikeouts, not realizing that good teams and pitchers go into a playoff series with a plan not to let their opponents' best batters beat them. Sometimes that works, but it takes so much pinpoint precision to constantly contain Betts-Benny-JD-X, that tired elbows and shoulders often make less than perfect pitches to other guys -- and the results are MVPs named Bradley and Pearce. Winners always have unsung heroes stepping up, but there are usually team factors behind it. And this Red Sox team was the first in history to clinch three postseason series on the road vs. three Cy Youngs: Sabathia, Verlander and Kershaw. It may not be so easy to hit .346 against those guys, but I'd say Betts did "something"...

[notin]

Sometimes we have to look beyond the aggregate stats and focus on the "when", the moments that ignite -- like when SD no-hit LA through five, then Mookie ripped a double to kick-start a winning rally. Here's a long recap of Betts' '18 postseason:

 

In the '18 ALCS -- easily the Sox' most intense series -- Betts led off four of the five games with three hits and a hit by pitch, and scored the first run of the game in three straight wins. Nothing sets the tone more for a team than scoring the first run in a playoff game, and Betts did that best. He also singled, stole second and scored the first run of the first game of the World Series; LA knew it was in for it. Being disruptive on the bases is another huge asset, like later when he walked, ran around the bases and scored on a ground-out. Then there's defense -- and not just the leap on the Altuve interference call, robbing Bregman the next day, and the best throw of the postseason to nail Kemp, but all the Gold Glove sprints that made tough flies and pops look routine. Finally, casual observers point to Betts' higher-than-usual strikeouts, not realizing that good teams and pitchers go into a playoff series with a plan not to let their opponents' best batters beat them. Sometimes that works, but it takes so much pinpoint precision to constantly contain Betts-Benny-JD-X, that tired elbows and shoulders often make less than perfect pitches to other guys -- and the results are MVPs named Bradley and Pearce. Winners always have unsung heroes stepping up, but there are usually team factors behind it. And this Red Sox team was the first in history to clinch three postseason series on the road vs. three Cy Youngs: Sabathia, Verlander and Kershaw. It may not be so easy to hit .346 against those guys, but I'd say Betts did "something"...

 

A much easier point is to ignore post-season stats as not so much an aggregate total, but a bunch of extremely small sample sizes spread out over multiple seasons. Saying he has a .639 OPS in the post-season as a measure that he strggles also means that you're counting his 2 for 10 ALDS in 2016 at age 23 equally with his performances yesterday. And Mookie, like nearly every MLB player, was not the same at 23 as he is at age 27...

[Bellhorn04]

A much easier point is to ignore post-season stats as not so much an aggregate total, but a bunch of extremely small sample sizes spread out over multiple seasons. Saying he has a .639 OPS in the post-season as a measure that he strggles also means that you're counting his 2 for 10 ALDS in 2016 at age 23 equally with his performances yesterday. And Mookie, like nearly every MLB player, was not the same at 23 as he is at age 27...

 

With the expansion of playoffs, the samples are getting a little bigger. And it looks like they'll get bigger still...

[mvp 78]

Probably because it’s only 139 plate appearances spread out over 5 seasons, but Mookie’s never really been Mookie in the postseason. .639 OPS and 1 career home run...

 

c-h-o-k-e-r

[notin]

With the expansion of playoffs, the samples are getting a little bigger. And it looks like they'll get bigger still...

 

.. which doesn't change that his post-season numbers are still 139 PA spread out over 5 years. And it does not change that one mammoth game can change those numbers dramatically, which is why they are 100% meaningless...

[notin]

c-h-o-k-e-r

 

Yeah, if only he was Manny Margot in the post-season...

[Bellhorn04]

.. which doesn't change that his post-season numbers are still 139 PA spread out over 5 years. And it does not change that one mammoth game can change those numbers dramatically, which is why they are 100% meaningless...

 

Kershaw is actually a better case to study if we're really going to get into this debate.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, if only he was Manny Margot in the post-season...

 

They traded the wrong guy for Kimbrel.

[mvp 78]

Kershaw is actually a better case to study if we're really going to get into this debate.

 

K rate, WHIP, BB rate are all close to his regular season levels. The only change is an increase in HR/FB % and his LOB %. Still a little flukey? IDK.

[notin]

Kershaw is actually a better case to study if we're really going to get into this debate.

 

Except with most pitchers, there is always one other incredibly obvious possibility, and one I argued was always the case with David Price until he showed there was a good chance I was correct. And that point is that racking up larger IP totals wears a pitcher down and some pitchers are simply exhausted and worn out and probably very sore by the time October comes around.

 

And there also seems to be a trend that pitchers who log a lot of innings deep into October are not as effective the following season. (And possibly why Cora took it very easy on the Sox starters in ST 2019.) This is potentially a good factor in why so few teams seem to repeat World Series titles any more...