Why was Mookie traded, exactly?

[dgalehouse]

Of all the Sox prospects, I get the sense that Duran could be something special. Maybe superstar potential. I would not hesitate to bring him up.

[mvp 78]

Of all the Sox prospects, I get the sense that Duran could be something special. Maybe superstar potential. I would not hesitate to bring him up.

 

If solely on ceiling:

 

Casas

Duran

Jimenez

Ramirez

Bello

Song

Downs

Yorke

Houck

Mata

[moonslav59]

If solely on ceiling:

 

Casas

Duran

Jimenez

Ramirez

Bello

Song

Downs

Yorke

Houck

Mata

 

I might go...

 

Casas

Bello

Jimenez

Duran (close to Jimenez)

[mvp 78]

I might go...

 

Casas

Bello

Jimenez

Duran (close to Jimenez)

 

I have Duran higher than Jimenez due to Duran actually showing power. With Jimenez, it's hard to see if he projects to have ANY power considering that LH swing he has.

 

Also, hard to rank between hitters vs pitchers. Bellow is great and it's probably a toss up between him and Aldo.

[notin]

If solely on ceiling:

 

Casas

Duran

Jimenez

Ramirez

Bello

Song

Downs

Yorke

Houck

Mata

 

So no more faith in Groome’s ceiling?

 

He’s not very likely to reach it unless he somehow stops getting injured. But it’s supposedly pretty high…

[mvp 78]

So no more faith in Groome’s ceiling?

 

He’s not very likely to reach it unless he somehow stops getting injured. But it’s supposedly pretty high…

 

His "stuff" is behind the other guys listed. He's in with Seabold/Ward somewhere.

[moonslav59]

I have Duran higher than Jimenez due to Duran actually showing power. With Jimenez, it's hard to see if he projects to have ANY power considering that LH swing he has.

 

Also, hard to rank between hitters vs pitchers. Bellow is great and it's probably a toss up between him and Aldo.

 

Jimenez is just 20, so when you talk "ceiling" it seems easier to think it's higher for younger players.

 

He may never match Duran's power, which incidentally, he's really only shown this year, at age 24.

 

It's a close call, and I am very high on both of them.

 

Aldo is 2 years younger than Bello, so I can see ranking his ceiling higher.

[Nick]

So no more faith in Groome’s ceiling?

 

He’s not very likely to reach it unless he somehow stops getting injured. But it’s supposedly pretty high…

 

At some point, he needs to command the strike zone. He has 49 K's in 35 innings but has also walked 20 batters.

 

He is 6-6, 262lbs, will turn 23 on 8/23. Big boy.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Jimenez is just 20, so when you talk "ceiling" it seems easier to think it's higher for younger players.

 

He may never match Duran's power, which incidentally, he's really only shown this year, at age 24.

 

It's a close call, and I am very high on both of them.

 

Aldo is 2 years younger than Bello, so I can see ranking his ceiling higher.

 

Moon, I think you know but you keep bring up the fact that Duran has gained power only this year. Well that's due to gaining muscle and changing his swing last year. So it's not as though he's doing the same thing he did back in 2019 and all of sudden his power output has increased.

 

He's taken steps to increase his power. His power is not go down unless he reverts back to his old swing.

 

I doubt Jimanez has been working to increase his power. Probably not a priority for him.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

My dream line up assuming everyone hits

 

C ????

1B Casas/Dalbec/Devers

2B Chavis

SS Xander (assuming he stays)

3B Devers/Dalbec

LF Cordero (I love his power)

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

DH Devers/Dalbec/Casas (Assuming JD is gone)

 

Right now we're too right handed so adding Duran, Casas and Cordero will change the hitting composition.

 

SP Sale

SP Whitlock

SP Houck

SP Bello

SP Seabold

SP Matta

SP Ward

SP Groome

SP Noah Song

SP Jack Leiter/Kumar Rocker

Edited June 21, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Moon, I think you know but you keep bring up the fact that Duran has gained power only this year. Well that's due to gaining muscle and changing his swing last year. So it's not as though he's doing the same thing he did back in 2019 and all of sudden his power output has increased.

 

He's taken steps to increase his power. His power is not go down unless he reverts back to his old swing.

 

I doubt Jimanez has been working to increase his power. Probably not a priority for him.

 

I didn't mean it as a slight on Duran.

 

Jimenez has 4 years to improve his power. Maybe he waits to 24 to bulk up.

 

I was just talking upside and "ceiling."

 

I really like Duran. I get the feeling that just because I say I trust Bloom to know when he's ML ready, that is taken as a sign I don't like him as much as those who want him called up, right now.

 

I have very high confidence and expectations for Duran, once he is called up.

 

He changed his position, approach and work out regime. I'm thinking some time is needed to get into his new comfort zone. It looks like he's doing a great job on that front. It looks to me, like he's ready or very close to ready, but I trust Bloom knows more than I do, and I've never seen the guy play- even on TV.

 

(Even if I did see him numerous times, Sox brass knows way more than I do about his readiness.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I have very high confidence and expectations for Duran, once he is called up.

 

He changed his position, approach and work out regime. I'm thinking some time is needed to get into his new comfort zone. It looks like he's doing a great job on that front. It looks to me, like he's ready or very close to ready, but I trust Bloom knows more than I do, and I've never seen the guy play- even on TV.

 

(Even if I did see him numerous times, Sox brass knows way more than I do about his readiness.)

 

I attended a Double A game a few years ago and watched Duran in CF and Wilson in RF. Based on just the way they carried themselves -- approach to hitting, fielding and running -- my impression (which meant about as much as the kid in the seat next to me) was that Duran was a future big leaguer, Wilson a future Triple A guy.

[Hugh2]

Casas high GB rate is starting to concern me, I don’t think Duran is as good as others say he is.

 

I think he’s a big leaguer, and can help this team (maybe even this year). But I don’t think he’s going to be the all star that many think he will be.

 

I’m starting to really like Bello. He might have the highest gap between floor and ceiling amongst the group talked about but his stuff is electric.

[Nick]

Casas high GB rate is starting to concern me, I don’t think Duran is as good as others say he is.

 

I think he’s a big leaguer, and can help this team (maybe even this year). But I don’t think he’s going to be the all star that many think he will be.

 

I’m starting to really like Bello. He might have the highest gap between floor and ceiling amongst the group talked about but his stuff is electric.

 

Bloom himself has said he thinks Duran has chance to be 'great'.

 

I read a lot. NO, NO, NO, ABSOLUTELY NO. Bloom does not say that about EVERYONE. I've never read where he has used the word "GREAT" about any other prospect. So please don't go down that rabbit hole, "Oh what's he going to say? He sucks?"

[harmony]

Casas high GB rate is starting to concern me, I don’t think Duran is as good as others say he is.

 

I think he’s a big leaguer, and can help this team (maybe even this year). But I don’t think he’s going to be the all star that many think he will be.

 

I’m starting to really like Bello. He might have the highest gap between floor and ceiling amongst the group talked about but his stuff is electric.

Jake Fraley, the speedy lefthand-hitting outfielder for the Seattle Mariners, remains a decent comp for Jarren Duran, who is 16 months younger than Fraley.

 

Fraley has posted 0.9 fWAR in 25 games this year. Do the math.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF

 

Fraley and Duran were drafted out of prominent college programs and have posted these minor league numbers:

 

JF 257 G, 1076 PA, .288/.365/.485/.850, 72 SB, 28 CS

JD 229 G, 1025 PA, .317/.377/.471/.848, 76 SB, 25 CS

[Nick]

Jake Fraley, the speedy lefthand-hitting outfielder for the Seattle Mariners, remains a decent comp for Jarren Duran, who is 16 months younger than Fraley.

 

Fraley has posted 0.9 fWAR in 25 games this year. Do the math.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF

 

Fraley and Duran were drafted out of prominent college programs and have posted these minor league numbers:

 

JF 257 G, 1076 PA, .288/.365/.485/.850, 72 SB, 28 CS

JD 229 G, 1025 PA, .317/.377/.471/.848, 76 SB, 25 CS

 

I guess the question becomes is Cora ready to give up on Santana? I believe Cora has much to do with it. I think Marwin is here to stay for the duration of 2021 season because of his defensive versatility. He looks to be better interior infielder than Santana.

 

Offensively, I can't imagine Duran doing any worse than Santana. They both have speed and power.

[notin]

Jake Fraley, the speedy lefthand-hitting outfielder for the Seattle Mariners, remains a decent comp for Jarren Duran, who is 16 months younger than Fraley.

 

Fraley has posted 0.9 fWAR in 25 games this year. Do the math.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF

 

Fraley and Duran were drafted out of prominent college programs and have posted these minor league numbers:

 

JF 257 G, 1076 PA, .288/.365/.485/.850, 72 SB, 28 CS

JD 229 G, 1025 PA, .317/.377/.471/.848, 76 SB, 25 CS

 

Do these type of comparisons ever work out?

 

You also tried to compare former Sox prospect and 3b Will Middlebrooks to Mark Reynolds based on age and similar MiLB numbers. And Middlebrooks turned out to be nowhere near as good as Reynolds…

[mvp 78]

Do these type of comparisons ever work out?

 

You also tried to compare former Sox prospect and 3b Will Middlebrooks to Mark Reynolds based on age and similar MiLB numbers. And Middlebrooks turned out to be nowhere near as good as Reynolds…

 

The problem that I have with it is that it's nearly impossible to compare Duran 2021 to Duran 2018/19. They have completely different swings. Prior to 2021, Duran had 8 professional HR's in 880 PA's. This year he has 12 Hr's in only 145 PA's.

[harmony]

Do these type of comparisons ever work out?

 

You also tried to compare former Sox prospect and 3b Will Middlebrooks to Mark Reynolds based on age and similar MiLB numbers. And Middlebrooks turned out to be nowhere near as good as Reynolds…

The similarities are merely interesting.

 

The comp of Will Middlebrooks and Mark Reynolds was lambasted by Red Sox fans who projected Middlebrooks as a perennial All Star.

 

FWIW, the Steamer rest-of-season projections for Jake Fraley and Jarren Duran:

 

JF 33 G, 137 PA, .227/.313/.376, 95 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

JD 27 G, 101 PA, .259/.311/.377, 86 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/sa3006786/stats?position=OF

Edited June 22, 2021 by harmony

[notin]

 

The comp of Will Middlebrooks and Mark Reynolds was lambasted by Red Sox fans who projected Middlebrooks as a perennial All Star.

 

 

 

Well, there was the one guy who said he’d be thrilled if Middlebrooks turned into the next Mark Reynolds…

[oldtimer]

Downs is another asset we received and didn't do a lot early on but has really picked it up of late. Hope we don't consider trading him.

[Larry Cook]

Who has the higher upside downs or cannon or yorke?

[Nick]

Betts was paid $10M in 2020. Recorded WAR of 3.6

 

Verdugo was paid $223K in 2020. Recorded WAR of 2.2.

 

Verdugo is being paid $644.5K in 2021. His WAR as of today is 1.6.

 

Verdugo has recouped what we gave up for Betts with WAR of 3.8 vs 3.6.

 

Whatever Betts does in 2021 and beyond is covered by his contract with the Dodgers

 

We have 3 additional years of Vedugo. We also received Wong and Downs in the trade. It was good trade for us.

[Bellhorn04]

Betts was paid $10M in 2020. Recorded WAR of 3.6

 

Verdugo was paid $223K in 2020. Recorded WAR of 2.2.

 

Verdugo is being paid $644.5K in 2021. His WAR as of today is 1.6.

 

Verdugo has recouped what we gave up for Betts with WAR of 3.8 vs 3.6.

 

Whatever Betts does in 2021 and beyond is covered by his contract with the Dodgers

 

We have 3 additional years of Vedugo. We also received Wong and Downs in the trade. It was good trade for us.

 

It's never going to be just about the short-term results of the trade, though. The trade enabled the Dodgers to sign Betts for the rest of his career.

[moonslav59]

It's never going to be just about the short-term results of the trade, though. The trade enabled the Dodgers to sign Betts for the rest of his career.

 

Yes, at an enormous cost, and we don’t know if Betts would have re-signed with us had we not traded him.

 

(This has all been discussed over and over.)

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, at an enormous cost, and we don’t know if Betts would have re-signed with us had we not traded him.

 

(This has all been discussed over and over.)

 

Very true. I couldn't just let that post by Nick slide, though LOL

[moonslav59]

Very true. I couldn't just let that post by Nick slide, though LOL

 

I understand where you were coming from, and there are so many permutations and sub factors involved, there can never really be a definitive grade placed on this trade.

 

Perhaps only Verdugo having a better career than Betts will convince some this was a good deal for us at that moment in time, and this from a sign Betts to a 14 year deal fan!

[oldtimer]

I understand where you were coming from, and there are so many permutations and sub factors involved, there can never really be a definitive grade placed on this trade.

 

Perhaps only Verdugo having a better career than Betts will convince some this was a good deal for us at that moment in time, and this from a sign Betts to a 14 year deal fan!

 

Downs is our #2 prospect and recently his bat is coming alive. Time will tell how good the trade was but I support it as being very sensible.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know if trading Mookie was the right move by the organization, but Bloom did as good a job on the trade as you could possibly ask.

[dgalehouse]

Betts was paid $10M in 2020. Recorded WAR of 3.6

 

Verdugo was paid $223K in 2020. Recorded WAR of 2.2.

 

Verdugo is being paid $644.5K in 2021. His WAR as of today is 1.6.

 

Verdugo has recouped what we gave up for Betts with WAR of 3.8 vs 3.6.

 

Whatever Betts does in 2021 and beyond is covered by his contract with the Dodgers

 

We have 3 additional years of Vedugo. We also received Wong and Downs in the trade. It was good trade for us.

 

I can easily afford a Lamborghini, but I am so happy with the mileage I get on my Chevy Aveo. The kids can complain all they want , but I'm satisfied.