A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[a700hitter]

Only early on.

 

Their rotation is not much better than the Sox, if at all (although wild card Nate Pearson could go either way, and one of those might put them over the top). But their bullpen has more question marks in it than the Sox bullpen does.

 

Their only real pitching advantage is at the prospect level...

When I used the term artillery, I was referring to the Offenses of the 2 teams— and the Jays offense is superior to the Red Sox.

[notin]

When I used the term artillery, I was referring to the Offenses of the 2 teams— and the Jays offense is superior to the Red Sox.

 

Yes and that offense should be better, but the Sox bullpen should fare better against the Jays' lineup than the Jays' bullpen would do against the Sox lineup..

[a700hitter]

Well, don't forget that Eduardo Rodriguez guy. And eventually that Chris Sale guy.

 

I don't think he's done, either. The OF is still a question mark, and I don't think anyone tagged Renfore as a starter, given that he only paid him $3mill. That's utility infielder money. I assume the Sox will add an OF at some point in the next week or two...

ERod will help, but that will not close the gap from helpless to competitive.

[harmony]

Well, don't forget that Eduardo Rodriguez guy. And eventually that Chris Sale guy.

 

I don't think he's done, either. The OF is still a question mark, and I don't think anyone tagged Renfore as a starter, given that he only paid him $3mill. That's utility infielder money. I assume the Sox will add an OF at some point in the next week or two...

Will the Red Sox spend more than $3 million for an upgrade over a utility-level player?

[notin]

ERod will help, but that will not close the gap from helpless to competitive.

 

Last year the sox SP who got the most starts were (in order) Perez, Eovaldi, Godley, Mazza and Weber. They also got multiple starts from Brewer, Hart, Kickham and Triggs. Those pitchers I just named started 29 out of 60 games. The Sox also used Brasier, Brice, Osich, Hall and Leyer for another five starts, making it well over half the season. Granted, Perez and Eovaldi are reprising their starter roles, but replacing all those other AAAA arms with actual MLB arms does make for an improvement.

 

I am hoping this team can be a competitive team that at least is still interesting in September. They still have one of the highest payrolls in MLB, so I doubt anyone expensive gets added. but this is defintely a better team that last year's mess...

[a700hitter]

Last year the sox SP who got the most starts were (in order) Perez, Eovaldi, Godley, Mazza and Weber. They also got multiple starts from Brewer, Hart, Kickham and Triggs. Those pitchers I just named started 29 out of 60 games. The Sox also used Brasier, Brice, Osich, Hall and Leyer for another five starts, making it well over half the season. Granted, Perez and Eovaldi are reprising their starter roles, but replacing all those other AAAA arms with actual MLB arms does make for an improvement.

 

I am hoping this team can be a competitive team that at least is still interesting in September. They still have one of the highest payrolls in MLB, so I doubt anyone expensive gets added. but this is defintely a better team that last year's mess...

Yes, they will be improved, and their games should be more watchable, but I will be happy if they play meaningful games throughout the end of August.

[moonslav59]

Last year the sox SP who got the most starts were (in order) Perez, Eovaldi, Godley, Mazza and Weber. They also got multiple starts from Brewer, Hart, Kickham and Triggs. Those pitchers I just named started 29 out of 60 games. The Sox also used Brasier, Brice, Osich, Hall and Leyer for another five starts, making it well over half the season. Granted, Perez and Eovaldi are reprising their starter roles, but replacing all those other AAAA arms with actual MLB arms does make for an improvement.

 

I am hoping this team can be a competitive team that at least is still interesting in September. They still have one of the highest payrolls in MLB, so I doubt anyone expensive gets added. but this is defintely a better team that last year's mess...

 

Yes, basically Perez started 20% of our games and might come close to that, this year. Eovaldi started 15%- maybe the same there. Houck started 5%.

 

26 of our 60 starts were from Perez, Eovaldi, Houck & Pivetta- starters expected to start some, this year.

 

34 out of 60 starts (57%) of our starts were from pitchers that might not start a single game in 2021 (hopefully).

 

This is an area for massive improvement.

 

There is no way anyone can characterize the 2021 rotation as the same as 2020, except for adding Richards.

 

The pen added Ottavino, Andriese and others and lost Workman and Hembree- Push?

 

Our offense in 2021 should be better than 2020. We lost JBJ, who had a good year in 2020. We added Renfroe and EHern, and will have Dalbec all season. I won't get into expecting rebounds from JD, Devers and Beni, but it's not a stretch to think we may be a top 3-5 scoring team in the AL.

 

Runs scored in 2020:

315 NYY- added nothing to offense (lost Gardner)

306 CWS- added Adam Eaton

302 TOR- added George Springer & Marcus Semien

294 LAA- added nothing to offense

292 BOS- added Renfroe & EHern (lost JBJ)

289 TBR- added no offense

279 HOU- added no offense (lost Springer)

274 OAK- added no offense

 

274 BAL

269 MN

254 SEA

249 DET

248 KCR & CLE

224 TX

[mvp 78]

The fans were hoping that he would convert his excellent stuff to a starting role, but he could never do it. He was much better than Pivetta, so I am not pencilling Nick P into the rotation.

 

If Pivetta could be Hassler in the pen, they should move him there.

[moonslav59]

If Pivetta could be Hassler in the pen, they should move him there.

 

If, and it's a big if, 6 of our 7 starting pitchers are healthy, one will certainly be used in the pen.

 

Maybe Pivetta fits the profile best of all. Maybe the pen is one way to limit Houck's innings.

 

If, miracles of miracles, all 7 are healthy at once, our pen could actually be a net plus.

[mvp 78]

If, and it's a big if, 6 of our 7 starting pitchers are healthy, one will certainly be used in the pen.

 

Maybe Pivetta fits the profile best of all. Maybe the pen is one way to limit Houck's innings.

 

If, miracles of miracles, all 7 are healthy at once, our pen could actually be a net plus.

 

Maybe Pivetta is even moved to the pen at the end of the year to make room for Mata/Seabold? A lot of scenarios we could run over.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Pivetta is even moved to the pen at the end of the year to make room for Mata/Seabold? A lot of scenarios we could run over.

 

Good point. Or, we limit Houk's innings by starting him in the pen, but them move him to the rotation and slide Pivetta to the pen.

 

Yes, lot's of what ifs.

 

Could Whitlock even rise to a rotation slot?

[notin]

Will the Red Sox spend more than $3 million for an upgrade over a utility-level player?

 

It's Jose Peraza money. So, yes...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Will the Red Sox spend more than $3 million for an upgrade over a utility-level player?

 

I'm told that someday Bloom will; he's just waiting for the right year (or the green light from his bosses).

[moonslav59]

I'm told that someday Bloom will; he's just waiting for the right year (or the green light from his bosses).

 

That year will be 2022. Book it.

[kenmeister]

ERod will help, but that will not close the gap from helpless to competitive.

 

I've put the Sox down as 80-82, which is far from helpless. I'm curious what your guess is.

[notin]

I've put the Sox down as 80-82, which is far from helpless. I'm curious what your guess is.

 

It is a tough division, with them playing 57 games against New York, Tampa and Toronto. But I still think 83-87 seems reasonable...

[moonslav59]

It's hard to put a number on total Sox wins projections. So many question marks.

 

So many AL teams got worse over the winter, although additions are not over, yet.

 

The Sox should improve, based on additions and returning players from injury. By how much?

 

As of now, I'm thinking 84-86 wins. Coming close to a playoff slot.

[notin]

It's hard to put a number on total Sox wins projections. So many question marks.

 

So many AL teams got worse over the winter, although additions are not over, yet.

 

The Sox should improve, based on additions and returning players from injury. By how much?

 

As of now, I'm thinking 84-86 wins. Coming close to a playoff slot.

 

With about 100 unsigned players, there can be a lot of changes...

[moonslav59]

With about 100 unsigned players, there can be a lot of changes...

 

Indeed, although many of those 100 are low impact players.

 

That's why I said "As of now..."

[a700hitter]

I've put the Sox down as 80-82, which is far from helpless. I'm curious what your guess is.

I see them trying to avoid 90 losses.

[moonslav59]

I see them trying to avoid 90 losses.

 

Have you looked at the rosters of most AL teams?

[notin]

Have you looked at the rosters of most AL teams?

 

And held them to the same standard?

[mvp 78]

Good point. Or, we limit Houk's innings by starting him in the pen, but them move him to the rotation and slide Pivetta to the pen.

 

Yes, lot's of what ifs.

 

Could Whitlock even rise to a rotation slot?

 

I think Houck should start in the pen this year.

[moonslav59]

And held them to the same standard?

 

The Yanks have stayed about even, but were good to start with. The Jays improved. What other AL team got better over the winter?

 

Some, clearly got worse, on paper.

 

I think the Sox got better- not even factoring in returning players from injury and COVID or players possibly rebounding from bad years.

 

Yes, we play a ton of games against NY & TOR, but if we win 2 out of 5 vs them and 3 out of 5 against the others, we'll likely make the playoffs. Those are big "ifs," but I find it interesting that some posters who railed against the idea that the "cliff" and that the idea was a joke are now preaching doom & gloom, while many that were sure of the "cliff" coming are now optimistic- maybe overly so.

[moonslav59]

I think Houck should start in the pen this year.

 

The only reason I think this may be hard to do is that we currently have 7 "main starters" with Sale sure to start the season on the IL- maybe even the 60 day IL. That leaves no room for anyone else to start on the IL for Houck to be considered the 6th starter.

 

I suppose, we could start and "opener" every 5th day, or start someone like Whitlock.

 

It may be more likely that Houck starts as a starter and is moved to the pen, when someone comes back from the IL- like Sale.

[notin]

I think Houck should start in the pen this year.

 

I think he should start there and stay there. He is much more likely to be an effective bullpen arm than starter anyway...

[moonslav59]

I think he should start there and stay there. He is much more likely to be an effective bullpen arm than starter anyway...

 

That's probably true, especially since his innings will be limited, but we only signed 1 SP'er, this winter- a guy who has barely pitched since 2015.

 

We have 7 SP'ers with one not returning until July.

 

Sale

Eovaldi

ERod

Richards

Pivetta

Perez

Houck

 

Possibles:

Whitlock

Seabold

Mata

Weber

Mazza

Gossett

Hart

[notin]

That's probably true, especially since his innings will be limited, but we only signed 1 SP'er, this winter- a guy who has barely pitched since 2015.

 

We have 7 SP'ers with one not returning until July.

 

Sale

Eovaldi

ERod

Richards

Pivetta

Perez

Houck

 

Possibles:

Whitlock

Seabold

Mata

Weber

Mazza

Gossett

Hart

 

If we get down to needing Kevin Hart, the season is over. Hopefully the Sox will employ the opener strategy if it gets to that point. Or promote Thad Ward or Frank German...

[mvp 78]

If we get down to needing Kevin Hart, the season is over. Hopefully the Sox will employ the opener strategy if it gets to that point. Or promote Thad Ward or Frank German...

 

Not sure Thad Ward is close enough. More realistic for him would be end of 2022.

[mvp 78]

That's probably true, especially since his innings will be limited, but we only signed 1 SP'er, this winter- a guy who has barely pitched since 2015.

 

We have 7 SP'ers with one not returning until July.

 

Sale

Eovaldi

ERod

Richards

Pivetta

Perez

Houck

 

Possibles:

Whitlock

Seabold

Mata

Weber

Mazza

Gossett

Hart

 

They may stick with a 5th day bullpen game as they tried to do last year.