A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[mvp 78]

I've decided to keep my mind open to (ugh) Jake Marisnick. His defensive numbers are actually very impressive. But Almora and DeShields also work if Bradley does not come back.

 

The 2B could be a stopgap, but there is no reason to assume Jeter Downs takes over in 2021, or that even if he does, he will be any good. While I doubt the Sox go all in for Kolten Wong, certainly one of Cesar Hernandez, Kike Hernandez, Jonathan Schoop, Jonathan Villar, Tommy La Stella, or Hanser Alberto could be had for dirt cheap cash. Although a 1 year $5mill deal would not kill this team.

 

Why are we assuming the Sox will not go over the limit? Last year, there was a lot of actual buzz in the media they would reset. Is there anything like that this year?

 

If they were going to go over the limit, why wouldn't they be in on the top tier FA's?

[moonslav59]

At once? He's not that good.

 

The Sox are likely to add a CF (Bradley?) and a 2B from the scrap heap. The bulk of the 2B options are all still available. Arroyo was not so great last year (.296 OBP) in his 50 ABs that he should get the job uncontested. And Chavis has not really shown to be the answer, either.

 

Chavis should be dealt for a RP...

 

More likely, Hernandez would be part of the 2B mix, and yes, Chavis should be traded, and our 4th OF'er.

 

Depending on how well Arroyo or Chavis do, and if we have Beni or some other OF'er, Hernandez could become our FT 2Bman or CF'er- NOT both.

[notin]

More likely, Hernandez would be part of the 2B mix, and yes, Chavis should be traded, and our 4th OF'er.

 

Depending on how well Arroyo or Chavis do, and if we have Beni or some other OF'er, Hernandez could become our FT 2Bman or CF'er- NOT both.

 

The Sox are not very likely to trade Benintendi, which is probably fine. The notion that Benintendi could be traded for a cheaper upgrade (plus!!) is laughable at worst.

 

Hopefully they can do some of the following:

 

Sign Odorizzi

Sign a CF (Bradley? Pillar? Marisnick? DeShields? Almora?)

Sign a 2B. Either one of the Hernandez' or one of the Jonathans.

Sign/trade for a RP: The FA market still has Alex Colome, Brad Hand (for now), Keone Kela, Trevor Rosenthal, Brandon Workman and quite possibly the most underrated MLB pitcher of the past decade - Yusmeiro Petit. (I'd like to see two relievers personally.) The trade market probably has Joe Kelly, Craig Kimbrel, Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, and Adam Ottavino.

 

Soxprospects.com also calls for a LHH bench bat, and I have always assumed Brad Miller would be here by now. But he isn't. No matter. He was hardly an essential piece. Mitch Moreland is certainly a possibility, although he was more of a Dombrowski guy than a Bloom guy. Still, Bloom signed him once, and some stability is nice...

[Nick]

Yes. I agree.

 

$13-15M SP

$6-8M solid RP

$3-5M RP

$3-5M CF

$3-5M 2B

$3-5M Moreland?[/quote

 

I'm willing to give Bloom time to reconstruct this team. It's way too early to change course. We're building the team for the long haul.

 

We knew what he was all about when he was hired.

 

Hell, I'm just happy that we still have $30M to spend.

 

You've laid out well how to spend that $30M. I trust Bloom knows the calendar.

[notin]

More likely, Hernandez would be part of the 2B mix, and yes, Chavis should be traded, and our 4th OF'er.

 

Depending on how well Arroyo or Chavis do, and if we have Beni or some other OF'er, Hernandez could become our FT 2Bman or CF'er- NOT both.

 

The Sox did already get a 4th OF. Hunter Renfroe. Sure he can't play CF, but he can play RF.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm starting to lose faith any more moves will be made.

 

That's natural. The waiting game is no fun.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For those who still think the Red Sox may re-sign JBJ: since Springer is now a $25 mil per-year-man, how much does Scott Boras demand for Jackie?

 

2020 bWAR: Springer 2.2, Bradley 2.1. Even if you think Springer is twice as good as JBJ, shouldn't the latter be getting around $12.5 mil per?

 

Boston has put Benintendi, who makes $6 mil, on the trading block. Do you think Bloom is willing to pay Bradley twice as much to keep him around?

[Nick]

For those who still think the Red Sox may re-sign JBJ: since Springer is now a $25 mil per-year-man, how much does Scott Boras demand for Jackie?

 

2020 bWAR: Springer 2.2, Bradley 2.1. Even if you think Springer is twice as good as JBJ, shouldn't the latter be getting around $12.5 mil per?

 

Boston has put Benintendi, who makes $6 mil, on the trading block. Do you think Bloom is willing to pay Bradley twice as much to keep him around?

 

Enough with JBJ......that would be the dumbest $$ spent this off season....go look elsewhere

[Nick]

Is Dalbec athletic enough to play left field? Will we have position crunch when Casas arrive hopefully late 2022?

[mvp 78]

For those who still think the Red Sox may re-sign JBJ: since Springer is now a $25 mil per-year-man, how much does Scott Boras demand for Jackie?

 

2020 bWAR: Springer 2.2, Bradley 2.1. Even if you think Springer is twice as good as JBJ, shouldn't the latter be getting around $12.5 mil per?

 

Boston has put Benintendi, who makes $6 mil, on the trading block. Do you think Bloom is willing to pay Bradley twice as much to keep him around?

 

2018-20

Springer 11.3 fWAR (4th)

JBJ 5.7 fWAR (16th behind Gardner/Heyward only 1.1 more than Pillar)

 

If Pillar won't get more than 4AAV, why would JBJ get more than twice that? Anything more than 8M AAV is too much for JBJ IMO. I'd sign him 2/16 or 3/22.

Edited January 20, 2021 by mvp 78

[mvp 78]

Is Dalbec athletic enough to play left field? Will we have position crunch when Casas arrive hopefully late 2022?

 

1. Yes.

2. No.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2018-20

Springer 11.3 fWAR (4th)

JBJ 5.7 fWAR (16th behind Gardner/Heyward only 1.1 more than Pillar)

 

If Pillar won't get more than 4AAV, why would JBJ get more than twice that? Anything more than 8M AAV is too much for JBJ IMO. I'd sign him 2/16 or 3/22.

 

Scott Boras has a 3-inch binder of Bradley data for you to look at.

[Bellhorn04]

Scott Boras has a 3-inch binder of Bradley data for you to look at.

 

No one pays any attention to Scott's binders.

[moonslav59]

The Sox did already get a 4th OF. Hunter Renfroe. Sure he can't play CF, but he can play RF.

 

If we sign Hernandez as OF depth and nobody else, he'd be the 4th OF'er not Renfroe.

 

If we trade Beni and add one OF'er plus Hernandez, Kike will be the 4th or 5th OF'er- not Renfroe.

 

If we see a net gain of 2 OF'ers and still sign Kike, Renfroe may be the 4th OF'er and Kike the 5th, depending on how good the two we get.

 

Ideally, Renfroe is a platoon LF'er. I'd rather not see him get much time in RF, but even there, it should only be as a platoon.

[notin]

If we sign Hernandez as OF depth and nobody else, he'd be the 4th OF'er not Renfroe.

 

If we trade Beni and add one OF'er plus Hernandez, Kike will be the 4th or 5th OF'er- not Renfroe.

 

If we see a net gain of 2 OF'ers and still sign Kike, Renfroe may be the 4th OF'er and Kike the 5th, depending on how good the two we get.

 

Ideally, Renfroe is a platoon LF'er. I'd rather not see him get much time in RF, but even there, it should only be as a platoon.

 

Sox will probably only have 4 bench spots. If they get a 2B and a CF, Renfroe, Arroyo and Plawecki take 3 of themm. That means either another OF or a LHH (Miller? Moreland?) for the final spot. Or they use an internal option like Chavis, Puello or Gettys for the last roster spot...

[moonslav59]

Sox will probably only have 4 bench spots. If they get a 2B and a CF, Renfroe, Arroyo and Plawecki take 3 of themm. That means either another OF or a LHH (Miller? Moreland?) for the final spot. Or they use an internal option like Chavis, Puello or Gettys for the last roster spot...

 

Assuming we keep Beni or replace him with another OF'er plus maybe adding Pillar and Kiki, our 4-5 man bench might be:

 

Plawecki

Arroyo (Hernandez is starting 2Bman)

Renfroe

Chavis (if not traded- maybe Munoz is added back to 40 man, if Chavis is traded)

 

5th bench slot and only 12 pitchers:

Wilson or Puello/Gettys would have to be added to the 40 man roster (no big issue)

(We could also use Arauz as the 5th sub, making Kiki more usable in the OF, when not playing 2B.)

[mvp 78]

Scott Boras has a 3-inch binder of Bradley data for you to look at.

 

His 3 inches won't please anyone.

[Nick]

This just came in my e-mail......

 

The president and CEO of the Boston Red Sox admits the Sox are not “all-in” trying to win the World Series this year.

“I think it would be inaccurate to say we are going for it with an all-in approach that perhaps we did prior to the 2018 title,” Sam Kennedy acknowledged in a wide-ranging interview Tuesday.

 

“We cherish that title, and all of them, but the way we built that team came at a price, which included importantly a depleted farm system and some depleted draft picks along the way. So we are building back up, and as we do this hopefully the right way, we’ll have a chance to be competitive in the American League East in 2021, but also for the longer term.”

 

There you have it. After 20 years of pedal-to-the-metal, the Sox are downshifting in urgency and expectations.

 

We're looking for incremental improvements and find out where the pieces fit. We're climbing uphill after going down the cliff.

 

Kimmi will enjoy reading about the 'price' we paid for the 2018 title.

 

Also uncertain if it's wise to spend as though we're big market ball club when you have no idea what the COVID situation will be this year in terms of having the ability to generate top tier revenue as in the past.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

His 3 inches won't please anyone.

 

It's not the size of the binder. It's how quickly you turn pages...

[dgalehouse]

This just came in my e-mail......

 

The president and CEO of the Boston Red Sox admits the Sox are not “all-in” trying to win the World Series this year.

“I think it would be inaccurate to say we are going for it with an all-in approach that perhaps we did prior to the 2018 title,” Sam Kennedy acknowledged in a wide-ranging interview Tuesday.

 

“We cherish that title, and all of them, but the way we built that team came at a price, which included importantly a depleted farm system and some depleted draft picks along the way. So we are building back up, and as we do this hopefully the right way, we’ll have a chance to be competitive in the American League East in 2021, but also for the longer term.”

 

There you have it. After 20 years of pedal-to-the-metal, the Sox are downshifting in urgency and expectations.

 

We're looking for incremental improvements and find out where the pieces fit. We're climbing uphill after going down the cliff.

 

Kimmi will enjoy reading about the 'price' we paid for the 2018 title.

 

Also uncertain if it's wise to spend as though we're big market ball club when you have no idea what the COVID situation will be this year in terms of having the ability to generate top tier revenue as in the past.

 

The " price we paid " helped build a champion and , arguably, one of the greatest teams of all time. It was well worth it. By the way , I still don't see that the price was nearly as high as some think. As for draft picks ; the better you are , the lower the draft picks. That's the way it is. It's certainly not an excuse to not try and be the best. I don't know if Kennedy is speaking for John Henry , but that statement is not what so many Sox fans want to hear after last year's debacle.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kennedy: "We're looking to build this thing the right way, brick by brick."

 

Fans: "Can you frame out a few stained glass windows, so we have something nice to look at, before the mortar dries?"

[moonslav59]

The cliff is real.

 

It was worth it.

 

2018 was the best Sox team, ever!

 

Hopefully, the rebuild will not take too long.

[mvp 78]

The cliff is real.

 

It was worth it.

 

2018 was the best Sox team, ever!

 

Hopefully, the rebuild will not take too long.

 

Should have re-signed Mookie and reset this year.

[moonslav59]

Should have re-signed Mookie and reset this year.

 

I was always for extending Betts. One main argument for trading him was that we got Verdugo, a couple nice prospects and we'd have money to spend. If we don't spend it, the loss seems greater.

[oldtimer]

I was always for extending Betts. One main argument for trading him was that we got Verdugo, a couple nice prospects and we'd have money to spend. If we don't spend it, the loss seems greater.

 

Supposedly we offered $300 Mil over 10 years and that was refused. If that truly happened,, I think we went with a high risk offer but even that was not enough. Mookie was probably leaving anyway and we got the best deal we could under the circumstances.

[moonslav59]

Supposedly we offered $300 Mil over 10 years and that was refused. If that truly happened,, I think we went with a high risk offer but even that was not enough. Mookie was probably leaving anyway and we got the best deal we could under the circumstances.

 

I'm happy with the deal we made. Unlike many, I'm glad we dumped half of Price's contract.

 

I think $300M/10 was an underbid, and we knew it. Since COVID, it doesn't look as bad, but had we kept him, I don't think giving him what the Dodgers ended up giving him was insanely high.

 

"Risky," yes, but so are any deals for the best of the best at 8 years or more.

[moonslav59]

Interesting to note, the BTV site dropped the value of Chavis, again, from 7.5 to 6.0. (I think even 6.0 is too high. Houck is 6.0, Beni & Ward are 5.3.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

and we'd have money to spend. If we don't spend it, the loss seems greater.

 

I said it for months last winter when hoping against hope they'd keep Betts: the Red Sox can be as frugal as possible for only so long, before bad PR -- or irrelevancy -- eventually forces them to spend their savings on players not as good combined as one Mookie. Either that, or Henry is selling the team.

 

Instead of either, I'd prefer they rebuild respectability by adding full-time position players and major league starting pitchers and relievers to the roster. Soon.

[mvp 78]

Interesting to note, the BTV site dropped the value of Chavis, again, from 7.5 to 6.0. (I think even 6.0 is too high. Houck is 6.0, Beni & Ward are 5.3.

 

I'd trade Chavis for another team's Ward or Houck.

[moonslav59]

I said it for months last winter when hoping against hope they'd keep Betts: the Red Sox can be as frugal as possible for only so long, before bad PR -- or irrelevancy -- eventually forces them to spend their savings on players not as good combined as one Mookie. Either that, or Henry is selling the team.

 

Instead of either, I'd prefer they rebuild respectability by adding full-time position players and major league starting pitchers and relievers to the roster. Soon.

 

One can argue Verdugo, Downs, Wong and whoever we get with the extra budget space may approach the value of Betts over the next 10 years, but if we don't spend the money every year, it will be much harder to say we made out okay on the deal.

 

Either that, or Betts gets hurt or declines earlier than expected.

 

Verdugo is looking like a very valuable piece.

 

If you look at the BTV site for player value, based on years of team control, projected value and contract cost, the deal looks like this:

 

-20.3 Betts

-10.8 Price (+$30M we pay them)

 

LA: +1.1

 

50.8 Verdugo

21.3 Downs

4.0 Wong

-$30M to LA for Price

 

BOS +26.1

 

(Note: I am not saying this is proof of anything.)