A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Isn't Jiminez their LF?

 

Roster Resource has him as their DH. But really, only Tony LaRussa knows for sure.

 

And with LaRussa, anything is possible...

[a700hitter]

I wouldn't do that deal. I'd just keep Beni.

Me too. His value has cratered. His salary is reasonable. Keep him to see if he rebuilds some value.

[notin]

Depth= 5th or 6th starter.

 

Which is all relative.

 

Reynaldo Lopez is the 6th starter for the White Sox, but he might be the second starter for the Sox, at least until Sale comes back...

[mvp 78]

Oooh , like a maybe a Jason Vargas type. Start printing the playoff tickets.

 

They aren't planning that for this season.

[a700hitter]

They aren't planning that for this season.

Getting a 5th or 6th starter for Beni isn’t even planning for a .500 season.

[a700hitter]

It certainly sounds like Bloom has multiple offers to consider.

Or maybe Bloom has made several offers.

[notin]

I can't shake the feeling that Chaim Bloom won't stop until he strips this roster of most of the 2018 world champions.

 

I just sense he's on a mission to prove that he can build a winner of his own; it's why I predict JBJ, Beni, Vaz and Eovaldi will all be gone this year. It's why they didn't welcome Holt back when he was cut by Milwaukee or why they won't resign Moreland or Porcello. I also think if the Sox suck again and anyone even sniffs that Bogaerts is unhappy, he'll also be dealt off.

 

Devers could be, too, especially if he doesn't get his act together at third. No Red Sox could fetch more prospects than Rafie, and you'd better believe Bloom is well aware of that.

 

I have no proof nor evidence of any of this post -- it's just speculation that we're all forced to type while waiting for any real moves to happen.

 

If that is the case, the Sox would be looking to move ERod and Barnes ASAP. Much higher priority than Devers or Bogaerts.

 

But more than likely, that is not the case. Even when the Sox were a bad team in 2012 thru 2015, the team did not rebulld, and Henry saw firsthand how quickly they could go from worst to first.

 

And Bloom did not even use that approach in low budget Tampa with any success.

 

He traded away Wil Myers for nothing much, and probably regrets not holding on to Trea Turner in that one. And Odorizzi for nothing much, but Odorizzi was entering his second arb year and might have been getting too pricey. He dealt a year and a half of David Price for Willy Adames, Drew Smyly and a then-highly rated Nick Franklin. But Price was also going to cost a lot and everyone knew it. (Especially Sox fans.) Adames has cetainly worked out, but Smyly was another mega-talent who could not and still cannot stay on the field.

 

And he made a great deal for a declining Chris Archer, getting Glasnow and Meadows. Archer had a very favorable deal, but there was no denying this was a great move. And the "prospects" he got for Archer had all already reached MLB.

 

He dumped the Longoria deal, which was a good thing, and managed to at least get a former first round pick (Christian Arroyo) out of it. But this was a clear salary dump...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If that is the case, the Sox would be looking to move ERod and Barnes ASAP. Much higher priority than Devers or Bogaerts.

 

But more than likely, that is not the case. Even when the Sox were a bad team in 2012 thru 2015, the team did not rebulld, and Henry saw firsthand how quickly they could go from worst to first.

 

And Bloom did not even use that approach in low budget Tampa with any success.

 

He traded away Wil Myers for nothing much, and probably regrets not holding on to Trea Turner in that one. And Odorizzi for nothing much, but Odorizzi was entering his second arb year and might have been getting too pricey. He dealt a year and a half of David Price for Willy Adames, Drew Smyly and a then-highly rated Nick Franklin. But Price was also going to cost a lot and everyone knew it. (Especially Sox fans.) Adames has cetainly worked out, but Smyly was another mega-talent who could not and still cannot stay on the field.

 

And he made a great deal for a declining Chris Archer, getting Glasnow and Meadows. Archer had a very favorable deal, but there was no denying this was a great move. And the "prospects" he got for Archer had all already reached MLB.

 

He dumped the Longoria deal, which was a good thing, and managed to at least get a former first round pick (Christian Arroyo) out of it. But this was a clear salary dump...

 

I just forgot to list Barnes and ERod. Barnes will gone by the All-Star break. Bloom's probably waiting on ERod to prove there are no longer any heart problems, when the return will be much higher.

[mvp 78]

I just forgot to list Barnes and ERod. Barnes will gone by the All-Star break. Bloom's probably waiting on ERod to prove there are no longer any heart problems, when the return will be much higher.

 

Yup

[notin]

I just forgot to list Barnes and ERod. Barnes will gone by the All-Star break. Bloom's probably waiting on ERod to prove there are no longer any heart problems, when the return will be much higher.

 

It would not surprise me if Barnes was dealt this off-season. But I hardly consider moving him to be a fire sale.

 

The thing is, when GMs build, they appear to me to have "foundation players" and "supplementary players." (My terminology, probably not theirs.) Foundation players they build a team around, and they do so with supplementary players. As Devers is a controllable foundation, why move him just yet? Bogaerts? Probably a wait and see approach, but dealing him is probably unwise because of the pending shortstop FA market. Why would anyone unload the farm system in order to acquire a player for what will probably be slightly less than they can sign Trevor Story for a couple months later? His value won't really exist until after the "Shortstop Free Agent Bonanza" (also my terminology) of 2021-22 has settled and some teams are still looking for one. (And if not for the opt out, Bogaerts would also be a foundation player himself.)

 

I could see Bloom unloading a few players, notably Barnes and (obviously) Benintendi. But the other short term expendables like Eovaldi and Martinez are going to be too difficult to move anywhere, due to their lucrative deals. So if Bloom knows he is going to be stuck with these players, and because Henry clearly does not like rebuilding, I would not expect Bloom to unload all his talent for prospects as some ego-building venture.

 

I think a lot of this specualtion was that the team did basically nothing before 2020 in an atetmpt to reset the tax. But this was not a new thing either, as Henry had Cherington do basically nothing prior to 2012, an off-season where Ben was so hamstrung by the finances, he had to trade away Marco Scutaro just to accommodate career 4th outfielder Cody Ross. But that lasted all of one off-season, and BC had a spending spree before the 2013 off-season...

[Bellhorn04]

Or maybe Bloom has made several offers.

 

It's all fuzzy rumors...but it's all we got right now.

[notin]

It's all fuzzy rumors...but it's all we got right now.

 

So far the interested teams list is:

 

Houston Astros, Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates

 

Teams that were in or rumored to be in but are not anymore:

 

Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins

 

Teams that should be in but are not mentioned anywhere:

 

Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, and Chicago Cubs.

 

Maybe half of those teams will get (or have been) involved in talks. We shall see what goes anywhere...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In most cases, the past influences predictions on the future -- it's all we really have to go by... thus, Henry will spend and Bloom will deal. After all, this is big market Boston, the franchise that bragged about resetting...

 

Very few MLB teams are making moves because of pandemic uncertainties. But let's be honest: based on the patterns the past 1.5 years with our no-longer-new Baseball Officer -- which have only been consistent with his time in Tampa -- wouldn't it be more shocking if Bloom suddenly goes on a wild spending and trading spree and acquires the new starting pitchers, relievers, second baseman and centerfielder that we're all discussing and expecting so we can watch a legitimate team this year?

[notin]

In most cases, the past influences predictions on the future -- it's all we really have to go by... thus, Henry will spend and Bloom will deal. After all, this is big market Boston, the franchise that bragged about resetting...

 

Very few MLB teams are making moves because of pandemic uncertainties. But let's be honest: based on the patterns the past 1.5 years with our no-longer-new Baseball Officer -- which have only been consistent with his time in Tampa -- wouldn't it be more shocking if Bloom suddenly goes on a wild spending and trading spree and acquires the new starting pitchers, relievers, second baseman and centerfielder that we're all discussing and expecting so we can watch a legitimate team this year?

 

It eould not be shocking at all.

 

I would say a spending/trading spree from Bloom is far, far more likely than a trade of Devers.

 

Trading Benintendi is not really a rebuilding more to me. Maybe Bloom, who probably knows Benintendi or has met him, and has a vastly different opinion of him than we do, sees this as more of a sell now as opposed to a sell low. Chris Archer was not exactly peaking when he dealt him away, and it certainly proved to be the right move.

[Bellhorn04]

Very few MLB teams are making moves because of pandemic uncertainties. But let's be honest: based on the patterns the past 1.5 years with our no-longer-new Baseball Officer -- which have only been consistent with his time in Tampa -- wouldn't it be more shocking if Bloom suddenly goes on a wild spending and trading spree and acquires the new starting pitchers, relievers, second baseman and centerfielder that we're all discussing and expecting so we can watch a legitimate team this year?

 

It would be shocking if Bloom does nothing before the season but make minor moves like we've seen so far.

[notin]

It would be shocking if Bloom does nothing before the season but make minor moves like we've seen so far.

 

Well he is clearly invovled in this whole Benintedi scenario.

[jad]

I can't shake the feeling that Chaim Bloom won't stop until he strips this roster of most of the 2018 world champions.

 

I just sense he's on a mission to prove that he can build a winner of his own; it's why I predict JBJ, Beni, Vaz and Eovaldi will all be gone this year. It's why they didn't welcome Holt back when he was cut by Milwaukee or why they won't resign Moreland or Porcello. I also think if the Sox suck again and anyone even sniffs that Bogaerts is unhappy, he'll also be dealt off.

 

Devers could be, too, especially if he doesn't get his act together at third. No Red Sox could fetch more prospects than Rafie, and you'd better believe Bloom is well aware of that.

 

I have no proof nor evidence of any of this post -- it's just speculation that we're all forced to type while waiting for any real moves to happen.

 

Agree, sadly, with every word. (As you say, not based on evidence--it's based on what we know of human nature.)

[mvp 78]

Agree, sadly, with every word. (As you say, not based on evidence--it's based on what we know of human nature.)

 

I disagree.

 

My personal spending habits would certainly change if my budget increased significantly.

[Bellhorn04]

Well he is clearly invovled in this whole Benintedi scenario.

 

Right. But trading Beni for a prospect wouldn't even be an upgrade for this year's team-actually a downgrade in all probability.

[mvp 78]

Right. But trading Beni for a prospect wouldn't even be an upgrade for this year's team-actually a downgrade in all probability.

 

Unless they used the open roster spot to sign a decent LF like Ozuna.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Unless they used the open roster spot to sign a decent LF like Ozuna.

 

Decent > descent! I think we'd all rather be talking, "Now, we're talking..."

[notin]

Right. But trading Beni for a prospect wouldn't even be an upgrade for this year's team-actually a downgrade in all probability.

 

While true, we don't exactly know what the return will be, if there even is any...

[notin]

Unless they used the open roster spot to sign a decent LF like Ozuna.

 

Also Rosario.

 

Since August 19, 2019, Benintedi is slashing .136/.267/.189 for an extremely unimpressive .456 OPS. Granted, this only covers 161 plate appearances, and is maybe about a quarter of a season's worth of games. And Hunter Renfroe, the current in-house replacement, was not much better last year (.156/.252/.393) in 139 PA's.

 

Maybe the Sox get a lefty platoon guy like Joc Pederson?

[moonslav59]

Unless they used the open roster spot to sign a decent LF like Ozuna.

 

I was actually thinking the exact same thing. I'm not a big fan of Ozuna, mostly because of his defense, and we already have a DH for the next 2 years (JD), but with Fenway's LF the way it is, a guy like Ozuna might fit best in Boston. He could also transition to DH after 2022, assuming he signs for 3+ years.

 

If we trade Beni for a non LF'er, signing Ozuna or Rosario could end up being a nice upgrade of both the ML team and the farm or whatever position we get back for Beni.

[mvp 78]

Also Rosario.

 

Since August 19, 2019, Benintedi is slashing .136/.267/.189 for an extremely unimpressive .456 OPS. Granted, this only covers 161 plate appearances, and is maybe about a quarter of a season's worth of games. And Hunter Renfroe, the current in-house replacement, was not much better last year (.156/.252/.393) in 139 PA's.

 

Maybe the Sox get a lefty platoon guy like Joc Pederson?

 

I wouldn't hate a Joc/Renfroe platoon. It's been in the back of my mind.

[cp176]

I can't say I'm looking forward to a trade. I'd rather keep him than dump him at his lowest value.

 

I still actually see Benintendi as somewhat of a prospect. If he is physically fit, I think that his potential is much greater than we have seen thus far. If he is traded for prospects that we hope might be good eventually, I would see that as a big loss for us. Seen too many "prospects" never develop. If good return cannot be acquired in a trade for him, then yup it will look to me as though someone has given up on him and simply wants him gone.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't hate a Joc/Renfroe platoon. It's been in the back of my mind.

 

I'm afraid Pederson will cost too much for a platoon.

 

I'd rather just keep Beni.

 

Find a cheaper platoon for Renfroe in LF, or count Renfroe as the 4th OF'er by adding 2 OF'er (Ozuna & Marisnik?).

[notin]

I'm afraid Pederson will cost too much for a platoon.

 

I'd rather just keep Beni.

 

Find a cheaper platoon for Renfroe in LF, or count Renfroe as the 4th OF'er by adding 2 OF'er (Ozuna & Marisnik?).

 

I was thinking that is crazy, but probably not true.

 

In a market where Kyle Schwarber can get 1 yr/$10mil, Pederson should be get a deal with a similar AAV. Both are coming off bad years at the plate. Schwarber is younger (albeit not much) but Pederson is the better overall player.

 

But the good news for the Sox is Benintendi is younger and cheaper than both of them, which does help his trade value in the face of his awful performances lately...

[jad]

I disagree.

 

My personal spending habits would certainly change if my budget increased significantly.

 

Hmm. Interesting. Looking over my life, times when I had nothing, and times when I realized I would never spend the money I had: Maybe the $$ amount I spend changes, but I would not say my spending habits change at all. If the lettuce is 10cents more expensive than I think it should be, I don't buy it; if the car or house is listed at what seems a reasonable price and I have the funds, I throw the cash down without even the pretense of bargaining. (This is why I never went into business for myself!)

[oldtimer]

Right. But trading Beni for a prospect wouldn't even be an upgrade for this year's team-actually a downgrade in all probability.

 

Trading Beni for pitching prospects strengthens our minors and also reduced our payroll by $6.6Mil per year. We lose an average defensive player with little pop and an awful performance since Aug 2019. Will he return to a better than average hitter? Maybe but I wouldn't count on it. Taking his salary and using it with a few Mil more we ought to be able to get a replacement LF with equal defense, more pop and less doubts. To me it is about making improvements with each move we make.