A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

So Beni's SSS can be ignored, but Liam Hendrick's SSS is worth a 4 year contract?

 

In free agency, like comedy, timing is everything.

 

Ask Gary Matthews Jr if you doubt me...

[Bellhorn04]

The Recency Effect has cost teams a lot of money, in other words.

[notin]

The Recency Effect has cost teams a lot of money, in other words.

 

A more boring way of saying it, yes...

[Bellhorn04]

A more boring way of saying it, yes...

 

I like saying Recency Effect, personally.

[kenmeister]

I'd like us to bring Travis Shaw back on a minor league deal. Maybe he can get his swing back and be our second baseman?

[mvp 78]

In free agency, like comedy, timing is everything.

 

Ask Gary Matthews Jr if you doubt me...

 

Love to give 5 year contracts to 32 year olds that just had a career year!

[mvp 78]

I'd like us to bring Travis Shaw back on a minor league deal. Maybe he can get his swing back and be our second baseman?

 

Swing? Yes.

 

2B? No.

[notin]

I like saying Recency Effect, personally.

 

Over comparing it to comedy and including a relevant reference to drill the point home?

 

That's just sad...

[notin]

I'd like us to bring Travis Shaw back on a minor league deal. Maybe he can get his swing back and be our second baseman?

 

Travis Shaw has only played 268 innings at 2B in his career. That experiment was a failure. In fact, it was such a failure that Shaw lost the position to a guy who had never played 2b before in his career...

[Bellhorn04]

Over comparing it to comedy and including a relevant reference to drill the point home?

 

That's just sad...

 

I wasn't saying it was better, just defending it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Beni's 2019 was not as bad as many felt it was. His 2020 season should be written off, and most GMs will not worry over it.

 

I still think now is not the time to trade Beni, but I trust Bloom will not hand him away.

 

The article hints at trading him for a prospect, which I guess teams looking to acquire Beni would be in "win now" mode.

 

 

Trading Beni for a prospect would just be giving up on Beni; he had a mediocre '19, and a crap Covid July in '20, so that's it?

 

It's mystifying how a guy can go from top-rated talent -- by just about everyone -- to good MLB hitter and fielder, a 20-20 HR/SB player, to basically cut at age 26... isn't that the kind of guy Bloom likes to acquire?

 

Maybe there's a physical issue undisclosed to the public, even a vision problem. There has to be some reason that quick bat that sprayed gap-to-gap liners in the bigs from '16-18 suddenly fouled back every first-pitch fastball the next year, eventually devolving into too many swinging strikeouts or grounders to second.

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Beni for a prospect would just be giving up on Beni; he had a mediocre '19, and a crap Covid July in '20, so that's it?

 

It's mystifying how a guy can go from top-rated talent -- by just about everyone -- to good MLB hitter and fielder, a 20-20 HR/SB player, to basically cut at age 26... isn't that the kind of guy Bloom likes to acquire?

 

Maybe there's a physical issue undisclosed to the public, even a vision problem. There has to be some reason that quick bat that sprayed gap-to-gap liners in the bigs from '16-18 suddenly fouled back every first-pitch fastball the next year, eventually devolving into too many swinging strikeouts or grounders to second.

 

We know he bulked up between 18 and 19, supposedly looking to add power. It slowed down his foot speed radically. Appears it messed him up in other ways too.

[Kimmi]

Haha. I have to admit that I take regular trips to the casino (during non-pandemic times) to play the slots. Yes, I know that my chances of coming out ahead are nil, but it's something I enjoy doing with my best friend. We usually make a weekend out of it, a girls getaway weekend. Don't worry, I play very small amounts. LOL

 

 

I do have to admit that I take regular trips to the casino (during non-pandemic times) to play slots. Yes, I am aware that my chances of winning anything are sl

 

Yikes, what in the heck happened to this post? LOL

[Bellhorn04]

Yikes, what in the heck happened to this post? LOL

 

I know. That was a rare technical error on your part.

[Kimmi]

Nearest casino (fortunately) is 90 minutes away. Over the years I moved from slots to blackjacks and lastly to Texas holdem. I hate to admit but I was one of those that purchased books and videos on "How to win at........". I figured I was pretty smart........

 

I considered it as entertainment. I always put a limit of $300. On one trip, I had just sat down. Threw away my first hand. I was dealt pocket aces on next hand. Person to my right put a raise to $25 so I just called. Another person called and the next guy raised it to $75. One guy called the raise and came back to me. I went all in. This was all preflop. $75 raiser had pocket kings. Anyway, a king came up on the flop and I ended up losing my $300. I was at the table for 5 miuntes. I have gone as long as over 24 hours straight.

 

Being an accountant, I'm probably too conservative to win big at card games. You got to have balls and place no value in losing money. Apparently mine aren't big enough.

 

This is the exact reason why I could never play poker. I'm the type who would fold on a 50 cents raise playing a friendly family game. I also don't have the cut throat mentality to raise against others when I have a good hand. I literally felt bad taking fake money from strangers when I used to play poker online.

[Monster24]

I don’t care if we sell low. I would rather have a guy like Rosario who has some pop play LF then put Verdugo in CF and have Renfroe in RF. Or bring back Bradley to play CF have Rosario in LF and Verdugo in RF and Renroe as the 4th OF.

Don’t see Beni in CF and don’t see him as a 4th OF given he can really only play LF.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd like it better but it has no good sorting and comparing features for looking at multiple players at once...

 

It actually does, but you have to pay to access -- I paid $6 for a month of Stathead when I was researching a project.

[notin]

It actually does, but you have to pay to access -- I paid $6 for a month of Stathead when I was researching a project.

 

I joined their pay stuff once. While you can find some remarkable stuff that way, Fangraphs is more user-friendly and free...

[moonslav59]

So Beni's SSS can be ignored, but Liam Hendrick's SSS is worth a 4 year contract?

 

1) I never said ignore Beni's last 161 PAs.

2) I never said Hendricks was worth what he got.

 

I've never been as high on Beni as many here.

 

110 IP by a RP'er is normally a solid 2 year amount of innings.

 

Neither is a very large sample size but since you brought up the two, Hendricks faced 424 batters (or PAs) in his sample size, which is over 2.6 as large as Beni's.

 

Beni's recent woes DOES worry me. I have argued his stock is as low as ever, but I don't think a player's value, as viewed by GMs, goes up and down as much as some seem to think it does based on 150-300 PA sample size or even larger. GMs know players have slumps- some season long.

 

It wasn't that long ago- from the season opener in 2019 to Aug 16, 2019) that Beni had a stretch of an .839 OPS. That's a 506 PA sample size. Should his past 161 PAs really outweigh his previous 506 PAs>

 

He's only 26. He had a .776 OPS over the last 2 years combined, and that dropped his stock. He's got a .791 OPS over the last 3 seasons.

 

My guess is, most GMs see him as a .750 to .800 OPS kind of guy with potential to do much better and a worry that his latest downturn might be a longer term trend.

 

I'd wait to trade him, because I think his stock is low, but maybe some GM does not view him as a big concern and will offer a nice return.

 

[moonslav59]

Trading Beni for a prospect would just be giving up on Beni; he had a mediocre '19, and a crap Covid July in '20, so that's it?

 

It's mystifying how a guy can go from top-rated talent -- by just about everyone -- to good MLB hitter and fielder, a 20-20 HR/SB player, to basically cut at age 26... isn't that the kind of guy Bloom likes to acquire?

 

Maybe there's a physical issue undisclosed to the public, even a vision problem. There has to be some reason that quick bat that sprayed gap-to-gap liners in the bigs from '16-18 suddenly fouled back every first-pitch fastball the next year, eventually devolving into too many swinging strikeouts or grounders to second.

 

We don't know what prospect(s) may be offered. Getting a great prospect is not like being "cut,"and it does not mean "giving up" on anyone. It just means you value the return more than what you give back.

[oldtimer]

We don't know what prospect(s) may be offered. Getting a great prospect is not like being "cut,"and it does not mean "giving up" on anyone. It just means you value the return more than what you give back.

 

I have been expecting an attempt to trade Beni. If Bloom can find reasonable value, which is a big if, he would be losing an average defensive outfielder who is questionable offensively going forward. What is not questionable is that Beni has little pop and the Sox have had a closer look at him than any of us have had. They appear to have concluded that they can do better in LF and that is while CF is still wide open. It would probably be best for Beni as well to get a fresh start for a new team.

[kenmeister]

Travis Shaw has only played 268 innings at 2B in his career. That experiment was a failure. In fact, it was such a failure that Shaw lost the position to a guy who had never played 2b before in his career...

 

Oh sorry I didn't realize that.

[jad]

Whoa ... Did I ... You guys pay money to get on a site that has stats????

[a700hitter]

Beni Trade Talks on MLBTR

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/red-sox-discussing-andrew-benintendi-in-trade-talks.html

JANUARY 12, 7:23pm: A rival executive told Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that he will be “shocked” if the Red Sox don’t trade Benintendi before the end of the weekend.

it looks like he is a goner, and they will be selling low. Last year around this time, the rumors started about Betts.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We don't know what prospect(s) may be offered. Getting a great prospect is not like being "cut,"and it does not mean "giving up" on anyone. It just means you value the return more than what you give back.

 

We can accept a rebuild by the front office, as long as they don't insult us by promoting a team that is "going to contend" in the same year.

[Bellhorn04]

Whoa ... Did I ... You guys pay money to get on a site that has stats????

 

Yeah, I have heard that some guys do this. They make sure the charge shows up on the credit card as something totally innocuous, so their wives don't know what they're up to.

[moonslav59]

We can accept a rebuild by the front office, as long as they don't insult us by promoting a team that is "going to contend" in the same year.

 

I can see us trading Beni for a prospect and still being in the wild card race, assuming we spend around the tax limit line.

 

If we trade Beni, it's not like Wilson or Chavis is our opening day 3rd OF'er.

[Bellhorn04]

Alex Speier reports that one of the teams interested in Beni has discussed trading 'big league pitching depth' for him.

[moonslav59]

Alex Speier reports that one of the teams interested in Beni has discussed trading 'big league pitching depth' for him.

 

Depth= 5th or 6th starter.

[Bellhorn04]

It certainly sounds like Bloom has multiple offers to consider.