A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

MLB Trade Values has these values for the top Sox players:

 

58 Verdugo

26 Downs

23 Dalbec

22 Casas

22 Bogaerts

21 Vazquez

21 Devers

13 Hernandez

12 Mata

12 Duran

9 ERod

9 Jimenez

8 Chavis

6 Yorke, Lugo, Beni

5 Chatham, Brasier, Ward

4 Potts, Houck, Song, Arroyo

3 Taylor, Murphy, Wong, Decker, Groome, Gonzalez

2 Bonachi, Cannon, Pivetta, Howlett, Rosario, Arauz, Wilson, Flores

 

Top Yankee values:

64 Judge, 59 Torres, 44 Severino, 34 Garcia, 31 Dominguez, 26 Montgomery, 25 Frazier, 24 Urshela, 19 Voit & Schmidt, 15 German, 14 Green, 13 LeMahieu, 11 Peraza, 10 Vargas, 9 Volpe, Medina & Gil, 8 Florial, Alcantara, Wells & Smith, 7 Loaisiga, 6 Duran & Higashioka, 5 Yajure, Vizcaino, Contreras & Tauchman

Edited October 28, 2020 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

The WS is over and now expect a flurry of action. Manager, 40 man moves? I am looking forward to it.

[moonslav59]

The WS is over and now expect a flurry of action. Manager, 40 man moves? I am looking forward to it.

 

The Rule 5 roster clearing will begin, soon. We will likely protect 6-7 players.

 

We may add some players cut by other teams as they trim their rosters for Rule 5.

 

We may add a player in the rule 5 draft, especially since we will have a high pick.

 

Then, we have to trim for free agent signings.

 

Not to worry, we have 17-22 players that could be DFA'd, demoted or traded with the blink of an eye.

 

Still, this is crunch time for Bloom.

 

[notin]

The Rule 5 roster clearing will begin, soon. We will likely protect 6-7 players.

 

We may add some players cut by other teams as they trim their rosters for Rule 5.

 

We may add a player in the rule 5 draft, especially since we will have a high pick.

 

Then, we have to trim for free agent signings.

 

Not to worry, we have 17-22 players that could be DFA'd, demoted or traded with the blink of an eye.

 

Still, this is crunch time for Bloom.

 

 

Well, Soggy Corn Flake Crunch.

 

The Sox still have plenty of room to DFA people. Candidates still on board include Puello, Stock, Covey, Hall, Springs, Brice, Peraza, Aybar, Hart, and Brewer. And I think Valdez and Weber should be candidates as well...

[mvp 78]

Brewer and Weber were successful (in Sox terms) out of the bullpen. I think they stick around for next year. However, Bloom could dump 20 guys off the 40 man and it wouldn't affect this team's chances all that much.

[notin]

Brewer and Weber were successful (in Sox terms) out of the bullpen. I think they stick around for next year. However, Bloom could dump 20 guys off the 40 man and it wouldn't affect this team's chances all that much.

 

Brewer was successful?

[mvp 78]

Brewer was successful?

 

As a reliever in regards to the other guys thrown out there, yes. You can't really just dump everyone and expect all your reclamations to work out. You should keep guys like Weber, Mazza, Valdez and Brewer around because their replacements would most likely be worse (as we saw from Triggs, Covey, et al). Springs will probably stick around too. He pitched well until the last week or so.

[mvp 78]

Brewer's xFIP as a reliever was 3.51. He should have never been put in the position to start.

[moonslav59]

As a reliever in regards to the other guys thrown out there, yes. You can't really just dump everyone and expect all your reclamations to work out. You should keep guys like Weber, Mazza, Valdez and Brewer around because their replacements would most likely be worse (as we saw from Triggs, Covey, et al). Springs will probably stick around too. He pitched well until the last week or so.

 

I think the 4 guys you mentioned will "stick around," but it would be no big loss, if they were replaced.

 

My guess is, better players will be DFA'd by other teams as their rosters are trimmed. Several teams actually have real roster crunches. Good players will be DFA'd or traded.

[mvp 78]

I think the 4 guys you mentioned will "stick around," but it would be no big loss, if they were replaced.

 

My guess is, better players will be DFA'd by other teams as their rosters are trimmed. Several teams actually have real roster crunches. Good players will be DFA'd or traded.

 

I agree it would be no big loss, but they need bodies. It's much hard to replace every guy and expect them all to perform better than Brewer/Springs/Weber. You keep those guys around until you are certain that all the guys below them on the depth chart are as good as Brewer/Springs/Weber are. Maybe there's a rule V guy you think has better upside than those 3? Maybe there's a guy another team tries to pass through waivers? That's when you dump those guys. Right now, they got to get rid of the moldy bread before they throw out the stale bread.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Brewer was successful?

 

We can forever be grateful for his American Pale Ale that wasn't too hoppy for old taste buds.

[notin]

As a reliever in regards to the other guys thrown out there, yes. You can't really just dump everyone and expect all your reclamations to work out. You should keep guys like Weber, Mazza, Valdez and Brewer around because their replacements would most likely be worse (as we saw from Triggs, Covey, et al). Springs will probably stick around too. He pitched well until the last week or so.

 

Oh I will think they will keep a few of their project pitchers,

 

But keeping, say, Hall over Springs is not really a jaw-dropping move. I named 12 candidates, and I expect numerous players DFA'd from that list, but not all 12. And no one on that list would surprise me...

[mvp 78]

Oh I will think they will keep a few of their project pitchers,

 

But keeping, say, Hall over Springs is not really a jaw-dropping move. I named 12 candidates, and I expect numerous players DFA'd from that list, but not all 12. And no one on that list would surprise me...

 

It's not jaw dropping, but would be very curious as Springs at least had a vague idea of how to get MLB hitters out. Hall just flat out sucked and proved to be an org arm at best since his stuff is so fringy. 88mph out of the pen isn't getting it done when you have no control (10.38 BB/9).

 

Hall's game log is just embarrassing. Not one good outing. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-hall/18076/game-log?position=P&season=

[notin]

It's not jaw dropping, but would be very curious as Springs at least had a vague idea of how to get MLB hitters out. Hall just flat out sucked and proved to be an org arm at best since his stuff is so fringy. 88mph out of the pen isn't getting it done when you have no control (10.38 BB/9).

 

Hall's game log is just embarrassing. Not one good outing. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/matt-hall/18076/game-log?position=P&season=

 

Yeah but Hall was reportedly acquired due to his extremely high spin rate. Both have an option remaining (Hall has 1, Springs has 3). If the Sox think they can get Hall to throw some strikes in Pawtucket, he might be the preferred option of the two.

 

And Hall only had 8 IP last year as well, His game log (all 4 games) might be unimpressive, but it's not necessarily a sample size representative of anything. Not that the 20 IP from Springs paints a clearer picture either.

 

I also omitted Walden, who I suppose could also be DFA'd, and he has he double whammy of having a bad season and not being a Bloom guy.

 

So that makes for 13 candidates for DFA/trade/whatever.

 

And not all the moves will be predictable. Last year, the Sox made some moves that were mildly surprising with regards to who left and who stayed...

[mvp 78]

How I rank the pen:

 

Unknown: Aybar (didn't even make it to the alternate site this year, is a former position player with no control, but is the youngest guy on the list)

 

Solid arms to keep: Barns, Hernandez

 

Decent/intriguing arms: Taylor, Brasier, Mazza, Valdez

 

Up and down taxi squad guys: Brewer, Weber, Springs, Stock

 

Low upside guys to dump/outright to AAA: Brice, Covey, Hall, Hart, Walden

 

Dumping the low upside guys plus Puello, Peraza and either Chatham or Arroyo gives them enough room to protect 6-7 guys and pick a rule V guy.

[Bellhorn04]

Brewer's xFIP as a reliever was 3.51.

 

Nicely dug out!

[mvp 78]

And not all the moves will be predictable. Last year, the Sox made some moves that were mildly surprising with regards to who left and who stayed...

 

I agree. It still doesn't make much sense that they dfa'd Lakins. He would have been one of their best arms last year.

[mvp 78]

Nicely dug out!

 

He's not a great piece, but you can do worse than him as the 6th-7th guy in your pen. And now that you can carry an 8th guy, it seems like you can definitely find room for him.

[mvp 78]

I do wonder a little about Taylor though. Was it just COVID that reduced his velo? His FB was much worse than in 2019. Even though DHern's FB dropped in velo too, metrics still valued it as a plus pitch.

[mvp 78]

In good news, it was nice that Brasier had a bounce back year. It looked like he was trending towards pitching himself out of the league in 2019.

[notin]

How I rank the pen:

 

Unknown: Aybar (didn't even make it to the alternate site this year, is a former position player with no control, but is the youngest guy on the list)

 

Solid arms to keep: Barns, Hernandez

 

Decent/intriguing arms: Taylor, Brasier, Mazza, Valdez

 

Up and down taxi squad guys: Brewer, Weber, Springs, Stock

 

Low upside guys to dump/outright to AAA: Brice, Covey, Hall, Hart, Walden

 

Dumping the low upside guys plus Puello, Peraza and either Chatham or Arroyo gives them enough room to protect 6-7 guys and pick a rule V guy.

 

If you are going to justify Brewer using his xFIP, then shouldn't the following pitchers be considered a lot more questionable based on xFIP?

 

Valdez (4.68).

Ryan Weber (5.01)

Mazza (5.14)

 

For comparison, the departed Triggs was 4.74 and and Kickham was 4.60. There were several equally bad, but some of the IP totals (like Taylor's 7.1 and Hall's 8.1) make them easier to dismiss for now.

[dgalehouse]

Rule number one : If you have too many ham and eggers on your team , you are going to run into problems. It does not matter if one ham and egger is slightly better than another ham and egger. He is still a ham and egger.

[notin]

Rule number one : If you have too many ham and eggers on your team , you are going to run into problems. It does not matter if one ham and egger is slightly better than another ham and egger. He is still a ham and egger.

 

In normal Sox season, 3/4 of those guys would have gone to Pawtucket and been nothing but depth. And the others probably never would have been with the organization.

 

But the Sox had no money to spend and no Pawtucket (Worcester) to send them to...

[moonslav59]

I agree it would be no big loss, but they need bodies. It's much hard to replace every guy and expect them all to perform better than Brewer/Springs/Weber. You keep those guys around until you are certain that all the guys below them on the depth chart are as good as Brewer/Springs/Weber are. Maybe there's a rule V guy you think has better upside than those 3? Maybe there's a guy another team tries to pass through waivers? That's when you dump those guys. Right now, they got to get rid of the moldy bread before they throw out the stale bread.

 

Agreed, but I'm thinking other teams have very deep 40 man rosters, and some fine talent will be DFA'd- perhaps better than all these guys we listed.

 

Basically, what I'm saying is that I think other team's #41 is likely better than our #28-30. Some may be better than our #22-25.

Edited October 28, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

If you are going to justify Brewer using his xFIP, then shouldn't the following pitchers be considered a lot more questionable based on xFIP?

 

Valdez (4.68).

Ryan Weber (5.01)

Mazza (5.14)

 

For comparison, the departed Triggs was 4.74 and and Kickham was 4.60. There were several equally bad, but some of the IP totals (like Taylor's 7.1 and Hall's 8.1) make them easier to dismiss for now.

 

Weber's xFIP in relief was 2.82. I think he should probably stay too. I'm probably overrating Mazza because of his high socks. For Valdez, he was really solid aside from 9/3 and 9/5 against the Jays.

[mvp 78]

Rule number one : If you have too many ham and eggers on your team , you are going to run into problems. It does not matter if one ham and egger is slightly better than another ham and egger. He is still a ham and egger.

 

Hoping all 26 Red Sox players get a roster spot on next year's AS team.

[mvp 78]

Agreed, but I'm thinking other teams have very deep 40 man rosters, and some fine talent will be DFA'd- perhaps better than all these guys we listed.

 

Basically, what I'm saying is that I think other team's #41 is likely better than our #28-30. Some may be better than our #22-25.

 

I agree. And when those players become available, you start getting rid of the bottom of your 40 man.

[moonslav59]

I agree. And when those players become available, you start getting rid of the bottom of your 40 man.

 

It will really be more like "the middle" of our 40 man roster, when all is said and done.

 

We've already gotten rid of a handful to make room for the players on IL. We will get rid of 6-7 more for Rule 5 players. That will put us into to #28-30 slots from the 40 man roster of just last week.

 

Add 4 to 6 or 7 free agents and a couple or more players signed off waivers, and we could easily be DFA'ing #19 to #21 and or Pedey.

 

We may also trade guys like Barnes, Taylor, Brasier, Chavis or Vaz.

 

When is the last time we saw a 40 man roster turnover of 20 or more players from October to March?

 

Couple this with the fact that we have 18 players on our current 40 man roster that were acquire last winter or later, and we can see the massive roster shuffle going on.

Edited October 28, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

@mlbtraderumors

Rangers Plan To Decline Corey Kluber's 2021 Option

 

Offer a one year deal?

[notin]

@mlbtraderumors

Rangers Plan To Decline Corey Kluber's 2021 Option

 

Offer a one year deal?

 

Sure, but he might be less of a guarantee than ERod and Sale...