A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

I'm sure the Angels thought the same about Pujols.

 

He is better than most 37 year old pitchers.

 

What they got wrong were his first years with them. He really fell off a cliff, right away. He had one decent year, but even .859 was very sub-par, for him.

 

He might be the "worst-case scenario" for any post prime signing, but again, the Angels signed him post-prime (age 32) not during prime.

 

BTW, his 162 game average at ages 38-39 was 28 HRs and 103 RBIs but a .718 OPS.

Edited October 27, 2020 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

If we count age 31 as post prime, all 7 of Price's seasons are post-prime, whereas 3 of Mookie's are in prime, and 9 are post prime.

 

It's okay to use age 31 as the onset of post prime , but there have been so many exceptions that you can't put too much stock in it. Everyone is different, and there are a lot of different factors and variables that go into the aging process. I don't know too much about it, but I think that Mookie is a guy that would still be very productive well into his thirties.

[moonslav59]

It's okay to use age 31 as the onset of post prime , but there have been so many exceptions that you can't put too much stock in it. Everyone is different, and there are a lot of different factors and variables that go into the aging process. I don't know too much about it, but I think that Mookie is a guy that would still be very productive well into his thirties.

 

No, you are right, we don't, but we do know hitters age better than pitchers, in general.

 

Betts will likely be an elite defender for many years and still a plus at age 39, unless he destroys a knee or soemthing.

[dgalehouse]

No, you are right, we don't, but we do know hitters age better than pitchers, in general.

 

Betts will likely be an elite defender for many years and still a plus at age 39, unless he destroys a knee or soemthing.

Yeah. I think that's true. With pitchers, it often comes down to diminished velocity , and whether they are able to compensate for it.

[moonslav59]

Yeah. I think that's true. With pitchers, it often comes down to diminished velocity , and whether they are able to compensate for it.

 

There's not a great track record of OF'er doing very well after age 37. I'm not arguing Betts will still be great his last 3 years, but he could easily still be a net plus player. Even if he's just worth $15M, $10M and $5M his last 3 years, that makes his first 9 years (3 prime and 6 at the same age as Price) cost $335M. That's $37M/yr. That's pretty close to Price's yearly cost with no prime years included.

 

If, he's worth $50M /year for years 1-3 and only $5M/yr the last 2 years, that means his 7 year pay during the same age as Price could be viewed as $205M/7. (less than what Price got.)

Edited October 27, 2020 by moonslav59

[notin]

Yeah. I think that's true. With pitchers, it often comes down to diminished velocity , and whether they are able to compensate for it.

 

Or recurring injuries....

[mvp 78]

There's not a great track record of OF'er doing very well after age 37. I'm not arguing Betts will still be great his last 3 years, but he could easily still be a net plus player. Even if he's just worth $15M, $10M and $5M his last 3 years, that makes his first 9 years (3 prime and 6 at the same age as Price) cost $335M. That's $37M/yr. That's pretty close to Price's yearly cost with no prime years included.

 

If, he's worth $50M /year for years 1-3 and only $5M/yr the last 2 years, that means his 7 year pay during the same age as Price could be viewed as $205M/7. (less than what Price got.)

 

He could transition to 2b easily.

[Bellhorn04]

He is better than most 37 year old pitchers.

 

What they got wrong were his first years with them. He really fell off a cliff, right away. He had one decent year, but even .859 was very sub-par, for him.

 

He might be the "worst-case scenario" for any post prime signing, but again, the Angels signed him post-prime (age 32) not during prime.

 

BTW, his 162 game average at ages 38-39 was 28 HRs and 103 RBIs but a .718 OPS.

 

Pujols fWAR starting at age 36 season

 

2016 +0.8

2017 -2.0

2018 -0.2

2019 -0.4

2020 -0.1

Total -1.9

 

Worse than replacement level.

[moonslav59]

Pujols fWAR starting at age 36 season

 

2016 +0.8

2017 -2.0

2018 -0.2

2019 -0.4

2020 -0.1

Total -1.9

 

Worse than replacement level.

 

Being mostly a DH really hurt his WAR, so I don't like the comp to Betts, who will likely be a plus on D until age 50.

[moonslav59]

Pujols fWAR starting at age 36 season

 

2016 +0.8

2017 -2.0

2018 -0.2

2019 -0.4

2020 -0.1

Total -1.9

 

Worse than replacement level.

 

A great defensive OF'er as he aged well...

 

Dwight Evans

 

37: 4.9 fWAR

38: 3.5

39: 3.4

40: 0.4 (123 gms)

41: 0.8 (101 gms)

 

fangraphs had his defense as a huge minus towards the end, and he still put up all plus numbers.

 

Other OF'er with great numbers at 37 and older since 1970:

 

41.8 Bonds

18.9 Aaron

12.9 Yaz

12.6 M Alou

9.5 Henderson

8.4 Finley

8.2 Gwinn

8.1 Lofton

8.0 Mays

7.4 T Phillips

5.5 J Cruz

4.9 T Hunter

4.6 Evans

4.5 Suzuki

 

[moonslav59]

Most people think of the Manny signing as a wild success for the Sox, despite the way his Sox career ended. Did those last years really negate the great years?

 

His first year with us was at age 29. His best career year came in Cleveland (7.5 fWAR in 1999. He also had a 5.4 in 1998)

 

with BOS

age f WAR

29 5.2

30 5.3

31 5.8

32 3.3

33 2.9

34 2.9

35 1.2

36 5.9 (BOS-LAD)

37 2.5 (LAD)

38 1.1 (2 teams)

39 -0.3 (TBR)

 

Manny got no boost from his defense.

 

BWAR starting with 1st year w BOS:

5.2

6.0

5.4

4.1

4.4

4.5

1.1

6.0

2.2

0.6

0.2

-0.3

Edited October 27, 2020 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Most people think of the Manny signing as a wild success for the Sox, despite the way his Sox career ended. Did those last years really negate the great years?

 

His first year with us was at age 29. His best career year came in Cleveland (7.5 fWAR in 1999. He also had a 5.4 in 1998)

 

with BOS

age f WAR

29 5.2

30 5.3

31 5.8

32 3.3

33 2.9

34 2.9

35 1.2

36 5.9 (BOS-LAD)

37 2.5 (LAD)

38 1.1 (2 teams)

39 -0.3 (TBR)

 

Manny got no boost from his defense.

 

Manny's is one of the rare contracts of that length that was an unqualified success.

[moonslav59]

Manny's is one of the rare contracts of that length that was an unqualified success.

 

Many do not work out so well, some even from year 1 or 2- like Pujols.

 

Here are the biggest & longest deals in MLB history that are over or near over as of 2020:

 

ARod II ('08-'17)

ARod I ('01-10)

Miggy ('16-'23)

Pujols ('12-'21)

Cano ('14-'23)

Votto ('14-'23)

Price ('16-22)

Kershaw ('14-'20)

Fielder ('12-'20)

Scherzer ('15-'21)

Greinke ('16-'21)

Jeter ('01-'10)

Mauer ('11-'18)

Teixeira ('09-'16)

Verlander ('13-'19)

Felix ('13-'19)

Posey ('13-'21)

CC Sab ('09-'15)

C Davis ('16-'22)

Manny '01-'08

 

Others: kemp, Tulo, Tanaka, Lester, AGon, Ellsbury, Miggy I, Trout I, Hamels, CCrawford, Helton...

 

Older ones:

Johan Santana

A Soriano

V Wells

R Howard

J Hamilton

M Hampton

Giambi

Holliday

C Lee

C Beltran

Griffey Jr.

Kevin Brown

 

 

[mvp 78]

Many do not work out so well, some even from year 1 or 2- like Pujols.

 

Here are the biggest & longest deals in MLB history that are over or near over as of 2020:

 

ARod II ('08-'17)

ARod I ('01-10)

Miggy ('16-'23)

Pujols ('12-'21)

Cano ('14-'23)

Votto ('14-'23)

Price ('16-22)

Kershaw ('14-'20)

Fielder ('12-'20)

Scherzer ('15-'21)

Greinke ('16-'21)

Jeter ('01-'10)

Mauer ('11-'18)

Teixeira ('09-'16)

Verlander ('13-'19)

Felix ('13-'19)

Posey ('13-'21)

CC Sab ('09-'15)

C Davis ('16-'22)

Manny '01-'08

 

Others: kemp, Tulo, Tanaka, Lester, AGon, Ellsbury, Miggy I, Trout I, Hamels, CCrawford, Helton...

 

Older ones:

Johan Santana

A Soriano

V Wells

R Howard

J Hamilton

M Hampton

Giambi

Holliday

C Lee

C Beltran

Griffey Jr.

Kevin Brown

 

 

 

Just flat out ignoring the 5'3" 2b in the room....... Sheesh.

[dgalehouse]

It was on this date , October 27 , sixteen years ago today , that the infamous " Curse of the Bambino" was finally broken. Joe Castig said , " Stabbed by Foulke" . On TV , Joe Buck said , " Red Sox fans have longed to hear it , The Boston Red Sox are world champions." The World Series telecast signed off to the strains of Etta James, " At Last." Many Sox fans wept and said , " Now I can die in peace. " Happy sixteenth anniversary to the band of " Idiots " who pulled off the greatest comeback in sports history. A day to remember forever.

[moonslav59]

Just flat out ignoring the 5'3" 2b in the room....... Sheesh.

 

He did not make enough to make this list.

[Bellhorn04]

Many do not work out so well, some even from year 1 or 2- like Pujols.

 

Here are the biggest & longest deals in MLB history that are over or near over as of 2020:

 

ARod II ('08-'17)

ARod I ('01-10)

Miggy ('16-'23)

Pujols ('12-'21)

Cano ('14-'23)

Votto ('14-'23)

Price ('16-22)

Kershaw ('14-'20)

Fielder ('12-'20)

Scherzer ('15-'21)

Greinke ('16-'21)

Jeter ('01-'10)

Mauer ('11-'18)

Teixeira ('09-'16)

Verlander ('13-'19)

Felix ('13-'19)

Posey ('13-'21)

CC Sab ('09-'15)

C Davis ('16-'22)

Manny '01-'08

 

Based on this list, the contracts for pitchers probably worked out overall about as well as the ones for position players.

[moonslav59]

It was on this date , October 27 , sixteen years ago today , that the infamous " Curse of the Bambino" was finally broken. Joe Castig said , " Stabbed by Foulke" . On TV , Joe Buck said , " Red Sox fans have longed to hear it , The Boston Red Sox are world champions." The World Series telecast signed off to the strains of Etta James, " At Last." Many Sox fans wept and said , " Now I can die in peace. " Happy sixteenth anniversary to the band of " Idiots " who pulled off the greatest comeback in sports history. A day to remember forever.

 

I never expected 4 rings, but that first one was oh-so-sweet!

[moonslav59]

Based on this list, the contracts for pitchers probably worked out overall about as well as the ones for position players.

 

Even better! (Not sure how many had all their years after age 31.)

[Bellhorn04]

It was on this date , October 27 , sixteen years ago today , that the infamous " Curse of the Bambino" was finally broken. Joe Castig said , " Stabbed by Foulke" . On TV , Joe Buck said , " Red Sox fans have longed to hear it , The Boston Red Sox are world champions." The World Series telecast signed off to the strains of Etta James, " At Last." Many Sox fans wept and said , " Now I can die in peace. " Happy sixteenth anniversary to the band of " Idiots " who pulled off the greatest comeback in sports history. A day to remember forever.

 

A great occasion.

 

And who would have thought we'd win 3 more after that?

 

We should all be grateful.

[moonslav59]

I did say, "Now, I can rest in peace."

[dgalehouse]

A great occasion.

 

And who would have thought we'd win 3 more after that?

 

We should all be grateful.

 

Yes. Three more , and hopefully more to come. But none will ever match the one in 2004.

[moonslav59]

Yes. Three more , and hopefully more to come. But none will ever match the one in 2004.

 

I'm not sure any others even match the ALCS of 2004.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure any others even match the ALCS of 2004.

 

Agreed, although the job needed to be finished, and it was done so in style.

 

But I would say that the end of Game 7 of that ALCS was the greatest moment in franchise history. I love watching the end of that game and the guys in the dugout getting ready to run onto the field.

[moonslav59]

Agreed, although the job needed to be finished, and it was done so in style.

 

But I would say that the end of Game 7 of that ALCS was the greatest moment in franchise history. I love watching the end of that game and the guys in the dugout getting ready to run onto the field.

 

I meant any other WS wins beyond 2004's.

 

Greatest Sox series in my memory (since 1970):

 

1. 2004 WS

2. 2004 ALCS

3. 2007 WS

4. 2013 WS

5. 2018 WS

6. 1975 WS

7. 1986 WS

8. 1986 ALDS (vs LAA)

9. 1999 ALDS (vs CLE)

10. 2003 ALCS

 

(I almost moved 1975 above a WS win, because it meant so much to me.)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I meant any other WS wins beyond 2004's.

 

Greatest Sox series in my memory (since 1970):

 

1. 2004 WS

2. 2004 ALCS

 

 

This may just be my old foggy memory banks balking, but I'm sure I have at least 10 more indelibles from the '04 ALCS. With all that was on the line -- including quality of life for maybe the rest of our lives for many, many Sox fans, it was by far the most entertaining because it was the most stressfully successful Red Sox postseason series ever. The '03 ALCS may be second, though not with all fond memories...

 

Honestly, it may be burnout, but what moments from the '04 World Series are etched in our gray matter other than "Back to Foulke"? Without looking up the games on b-ref, here's all I got: Bellhorn hitting a big homer in Gm 1, another Schill game (was that sock bloody or the same, unwashed, lucky one?), Pedro's shutout in his last Boston game, and I think Nixon clearing the bases on a greenlight 3-0. Was this also the Cardinal Series when that ex-Sox pitcher was the worst baserunner in history?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

'04 ALCS Name Association... see how many pivotal images can be recalled just by naming the actors from the scenes... from just the final four games:

 

Millar/Roberts/Mueller, Papi, Schilling, Ortiz again, Tony Clark, Bellhorn oppo, Slappy, Damon, DLowe, BellHORN, Pokey Reese/Alan Embree.

 

There are many more... mostly pitchers -- Leskanic, Wake, Timlin with a purpose, Bronson with braids, Pedro good and bad...

Edited October 27, 2020 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[moonslav59]

This may just be my old foggy memory banks balking, but I'm sure I have at least 10 more indelibles from the '04 ALCS. With all that was on the line -- including quality of life for maybe the rest of our lives for many, many Sox fans, it was by far the most entertaining because it was the most stressfully successful Red Sox postseason series ever. The '03 ALCS may be second, though not with all fond memories...

 

Honestly, it may be burnout, but what moments from the '04 World Series are etched in our gray matter other than "Back to Foulke"? Without looking up the games on b-ref, here's all I got: Bellhorn hitting a big homer in Gm 1, another Schill game (was that sock bloody or the same, unwashed, lucky one?), Pedro's shutout in his last Boston game, and I think Nixon clearing the bases on a greenlight 3-0. Was this also the Cardinal Series when that ex-Sox pitcher was the worst baserunner in history?

 

The feeling on that last out was worth more than anything else. The WS was a sweep, so there was not much drama or stress, but I'm not talking about the most exciting series. I'm talking most meaningful.

 

I remember the first game was a close one. Manny & Ortiz put us a head, late. The Cards tied it up and Bellhorn- BAM!

 

I remember Pedro & Schilling pitching a gems and Lowe closing it out with a gem in game 4. It was all pitching- something I don't forget.

 

Yes, the Yankee series has more memories and nail-biting moments, for sure, but the WS win was the moment I had been waiting for for 34 years.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The feeling on that last out was worth more than anything else. The WS was a sweep, so there was not much drama or stress, but I'm not talking about the most exciting series. I'm talking most meaningful.

 

I remember the first game was a close one. Manny & Ortiz put us a head, late. The Cards tied it up and Bellhorn- BAM!

 

I remember Pedro & Schilling pitching a gems and Lowe closing it out with a gem in game 4. It was all pitching- something I don't forget.

 

Yes, the Yankee series has more memories and nail-biting moments, for sure, but the WS win was the moment I had been waiting for for 34 years.

 

 

I get it -- my wait was 36 years; they had to finally "finish the deal". But for any Red Sox fans who grew up surrounded by Yankee fans, the ALCS wasn't our World Series... but it was the series of our world.

[moonslav59]

MLB Trade Values has these values for the top Sox players:

 

58 Verdugo

26 Downs

23 Dalbec

22 Casas

22 Bogaerts

21 Vazquez

21 Devers

13 Hernandez

12 Mata

12 Duran

9 ERod

9 Jimenez

8 Chavis

6 Yorke, Lugo, Beni

5 Chatham, Brasier, Ward

4 Potts, Houck, Song, Arroyo

3 Taylor, Murphy, Wong, Decker, Groome, Gonzalez

2 Bonachi, Cannon, Pivetta, Howlett, Rosario, Arauz, Wilson, Flores