A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[harmony]

I doubt the 40th man on our roster will be someone we hate to DFA, so I think we can keep Pedey around, but if there is truly no hope of him playing in 2021, I don't think he'd mind being cut. We can offer him a job in the organization.

The Red Sox on Monday cleared slots on the 40-man roster:

 

https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1320819501546590215/photo/1

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/10/26/21535184/boston-red-sox-roster-tzu-wei-lin-robinson-leyer-mike-kickham-zack-godley-andrew-triggs

[moonslav59]

If they need to, they can work around it. Better if they just don’t have to worry about it though.

 

I think Pedey will be off the 40 man at some point this winter. They may find a way to add him for some sort of ceremony, next year, but they will probably want that 40th slot for someone- likely someone not even on our roster, right now.

 

Our roster is so weak, we will likely add some rule 5 and waived players to the point where the bottom 12-15 guys we have now are all gone.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm disagreeing with your choice of sample period.

 

My point was about players already on the Sox from 2015 to 2016, and how that was the major reason for the "turnaround" not adding Price and Kimbrel. What happened in 2017 and 2018 don't take away from that point.

 

6 players improved their fWAR by 3 or more, including HRam & Porcello. 7 by 2.6 or more.

 

2015 was the outlier. 2017, 2018 and 2019 was related to age decline and 2015 was a signal it was coming.

 

OK. I guess I was arguing about something different, which had more to do with HanRam's being a terrible contract.

 

There are, of course, a lot of random variances in player performances and outright luck that can make a GM look good or bad.

 

With Ben a classic example would be Victorino. Terrific in 2013, a major contributor to a ring, and then useless, finito, in 2014 and 2015.

 

A lot of guys had 'good outlier' seasons in 2013 for us, in fact.

[notin]

OK. I guess I was arguing about something different, which had more to do with HanRam's being a terrible contract.

 

There are, of course, a lot of random variances in player performances and outright luck that can make a GM look good or bad.

 

With Ben a classic example would be Victorino. Terrific in 2013, a major contributor to a ring, and then useless, finito, in 2014 and 2015.

 

A lot of guys had 'good outlier' seasons in 2013 for us, in fact.

 

HanRan is the primary argument against giving Betts a 12 year deal.

 

Ramoirez came out of the gate looking like he was Manny Ramirez times Wade Boggs. He hit 10 HRs that first month. He had 22 RBIs. His OPS was .999. He was flat out crushing everyhting.

 

Then he hurt his shoulder. And he went from being the New Manny Ramirez to being the New Manny Alexander overnight.

 

If he did not hurt his shoulder, one can only wonder what might have been with Hanley...

[Bellhorn04]

HanRan is the primary argument against giving Betts a 12 year deal.

 

Ramoirez came out of the gate looking like he was Manny Ramirez times Wade Boggs. He hit 10 HRs that first month. He had 22 RBIs. His OPS was .999. He was flat out crushing everyhting.

 

Then he hurt his shoulder. And he went from being the New Manny Ramirez to being the New Manny Alexander overnight.

 

If he did not hurt his shoulder, one can only wonder what might have been with Hanley...

 

I've been saying pretty much the same thing. With a 12 year contract you've got the risk of an unexpected performance decline and you've got the risk of injury.

 

With a player of Mookie's profile, you can handle the risk of performance decline. But the risk of injury makes a 12 year contract totally insane. And the Red Sox say they don't buy insurance on contracts because the premiums are exorbitant - which is hardly a surprise.

[notin]

I've been saying pretty much the same thing. With a 12 year contract you've got the risk of an unexpected performance decline and you've got the risk of injury.

 

With a player of Mookie's profile, you can handle the risk of performance decline. But the risk of injury makes a 12 year contract totally insane. And the Red Sox say they don't buy insurance on contracts because the premiums are exorbitant - which is hardly a surprise.

 

I always understood the point. But Hanley was also 31/32 when he signed and was playig a new position (which was a big factor in his injury), and not a future Hall of Famer. Mookie was worth a much bigger risk. It really came down to how big of a risk anyone waqs willing to take on him. I've always thought - and repeatedly said so - that I would risk Mookie for 12 years at age 27 than I would risk 31yo Price for 7 years. Any player can get injured, but pitchers do more frequently...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've always thought - and repeatedly said so - that I would risk Mookie for 12 years at age 27 than I would risk 31yo Price for 7 years. Any player can get injured, but pitchers do more frequently...

 

... especially with the risk of carpal tunnel playing Fortnite for hours in between starts.

[Bellhorn04]

I always understood the point. But Hanley was also 31/32 when he signed and was playig a new position (which was a big factor in his injury), and not a future Hall of Famer. Mookie was worth a much bigger risk. It really came down to how big of a risk anyone waqs willing to take on him. I've always thought - and repeatedly said so - that I would risk Mookie for 12 years at age 27 than I would risk 31yo Price for 7 years. Any player can get injured, but pitchers do more frequently...

 

Would you be surprised to find that your math is actually off by about two years?

 

Price TURNED 31 in August of the first season of his 7 year contract.

 

Mookie TURNS 29 in October of the first year of his 12 year contract.

[moonslav59]

OK. I guess I was arguing about something different, which had more to do with HanRam's being a terrible contract.

 

There are, of course, a lot of random variances in player performances and outright luck that can make a GM look good or bad.

 

With Ben a classic example would be Victorino. Terrific in 2013, a major contributor to a ring, and then useless, finito, in 2014 and 2015.

 

A lot of guys had 'good outlier' seasons in 2013 for us, in fact.

 

Actually, the 2013 "outlier seasons" argument is not really based on fact. Many players had better seasons in 2013 than 2012 and/or 2014, but rarely was 2013 their "career year." Only Nava and Salty-( who just barely and he was benched in the 2013 playoffs.)

 

Only those 2 marginal hitters had their highest career fWAR in 2013.

 

Several had their best from 2012-2014 in 2013:

12-13-14(Career best/yr)

4.3>4.9>3.8 Pedey (6.4 in 2008 and 4.9 in 2016)

2.6>4.7>0.2 Vic (5.6 in 2011)

0.8>4.6>3.6 Ellsbury (9.5 in 2011)

3.1>3.4>2.2 Ortiz (6 seasons better than 3.4)

0.1>3.6>-0.8 S Drew (4.8 in 2010)

0.4>3.4>2.1 Napoli (4.3 in 2011)

2.9>3.1>-2.0 Salty (2.7 in 2011 not better but close)

1.2>2.7>2.3 Nava (2013 clearly his best)

(Mike Carp's sample size was small, but 2013 was his best year.)

 

Pitching:

Lackey, Doubront, Koji & Buch were better in 2013 than 2012 or 2014, but most had better seasons than 2013 sometime other than 2013.

Lester, Tazawa & Wright were better in 2014

Andrew Miller was better in 2012 & 2014.

 

Yes, a lot of luck is involved on when players have better or worse seasons, but clearly DD benefited from many players doing much better in 2016 than 2015. It was more the reason for a vast improvement in record than the additions of Price & Kimbrel. (We can probably guess that Ben would have added salary, too, had he stayed the GM.)

 

Being forced to take Bobby Valantine in 2012 could be part of the reason 2013 was so much better than 2012.

 

DD had total control.

[moonslav59]

Would you be surprised to find that your math is actually off by about two years?

 

Price TURNED 31 in August of the first season of his 7 year contract.

 

Mookie TURNS 29 in October of the first year of his 12 year contract.

 

Mookie will be 28 his whole first season.

 

Let's say 2 years. That means the team gets 2 more prime years out of Betts and 3 more years on the back end compared to Price.

 

Price will turn 37 his last year. Betts will only have 2 seasons at 37 or older.

[notin]

... especially with the risk of carpal tunnel playing Fortnite for hours in between starts.

 

Fortnite? Is this 2016? Just how behind the times is Price?

 

If he isn't playing League of Legends, then it;s a good thing we traded him...

[notin]

Would you be surprised to find that your math is actually off by about two years?

 

Price TURNED 31 in August of the first season of his 7 year contract.

 

Mookie TURNS 29 in October of the first year of his 12 year contract.

 

That doesn't really change anything. Mookie also doesn't throw sliders...

[moonslav59]

That doesn't really change anything. Mookie also doesn't throw sliders...

 

If we count age 31 as post prime, all 7 of Price's seasons are post-prime, whereas 3 of Mookie's are in prime, and 9 are post prime.

[notin]

Lin, Leyer, Godley, Triggs and Kickham were all outrighted off the 40 man roster.

 

Godley, Triggs and Kickham have elected free agency,

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/red-sox-outright-5-players.html

[mvp 78]

Fortnite? Is this 2016? Just how behind the times is Price?

 

If he isn't playing League of Legends, then it;s a good thing we traded him...

 

Overwatch?

[notin]

Overwatch?

 

If you say so. I had to Google around to see what was hot to make the damn joke work.

[mvp 78]

If you say so. I had to Google around to see what was hot to make the damn joke work.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-played_video_games_by_player_count

 

Fortnite is still really popular, but I think it's probably more of a casual or kids game at this point.

 

Aside from League of Legends (probably the most famous esports game), I think Dota 2 is probably the "cooler" esports game at the moment. I haven't heard much about the others and don't really play any online games to begin with.

[moonslav59]

Lin, Leyer, Godley, Triggs and Kickham were all outrighted off the 40 man roster.

 

Godley, Triggs and Kickham have elected free agency,

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/red-sox-outright-5-players.html

 

No surprise.

 

I'd like to see Lin accept a minor league deal with us.

[notin]

No surprise.

 

I'd like to see Lin accept a minor league deal with us.

 

Now that he has been DFA'd I'm ok with bringing Lin back as a non-40 man player. BBut if they let him go or he elects free agency or a return back home, that';s fine, too. He's not exactly irreplaceable.

 

Of course, this move is to open spaces on the 40-man to protect Rule 5 eligible players. As the Sox have 6 very obvious candidates (Groome, Mata, Seabold, Rosario, Potts and Downs), so someone else is obviously gone within a couple weeks as well. There is no shortage of obvious candidates or DFA...

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie will be 28 his whole first season.

 

Let's say 2 years. That means the team gets 2 more prime years out of Betts and 3 more years on the back end compared to Price.

 

Price will turn 37 his last year. Betts will only have 2 seasons at 37 or older.

 

You're using fuzzy math.

 

Price's birthday is August 26.

 

Mookie's is October 7.

 

That's a difference of only 42 days, but you're making it into a full year.

 

Might as well use exact ages down to the days, if you're going to do a fair comparison.

 

Edit: Or you can just use the same method Baseball-Reference uses, the player's age at the start of the season.

 

That makes Price's 2016 season his age 30 season, and Mookie's 2021 season his age 28 season.

 

2 years difference.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

If we count age 31 as post prime, all 7 of Price's seasons are post-prime, whereas 3 of Mookie's are in prime, and 9 are post prime.

 

That's kind of scary right there.

 

You're paying for 9 post-prime years.

[Bellhorn04]

That doesn't really change anything. Mookie also doesn't throw sliders...

 

So all pitchers are injury-prone.

 

Maybe we should stay away from them altogether.

[notin]

So all pitchers are injury-prone.

 

Maybe we should stay away from them altogether.

 

I assume when "Making a Strawman" becomes an Olympic event, you will be representing Canada?

 

I do think it is a good idea to not give $200 mill/7 year contracts to pitchers over 30. Not really sure how that equates to "avoid pitchers altogether."

[moonslav59]

You're using fuzzy math.

 

Price's birthday is August 26.

 

Mookie's is October 7.

 

That's a difference of only 42 days, but you're making it into a full year.

 

Might as well use exact ages down to the days, if you're going to do a fair comparison.

 

Edit: Or you can just use the same method Baseball-Reference uses, the player's age at the start of the season.

 

That makes Price's 2016 season his age 30 season, and Mookie's 2021 season his age 28 season.

 

2 years difference.

 

No, I said I'd make it 2 years, and I did.

 

All I said was Betts will be 28 his whole. first year. I did not argue that Price should count as a year older due to 42 days.

 

I'll take 3 prime and 9 post prime over 0 prime and 7 post prime.

 

If you want to break it down further as 26-30 prime, 31-34 post prime and 35+ past post prime, we have this:

 

Price: 0-4-3

Betts: 3-4-5

 

The real difference in Betts has 3 more prime and 2 more past post prime.

 

[moonslav59]

I assume when "Making a Strawman" becomes an Olympic event, you will be representing Canada?

 

I do think it is a good idea to not give $200 mill/7 year contracts to pitchers over 30. Not really sure how that equates to "avoid pitchers altogether."

 

One would expect Betts to be better at 37 than a pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

No, I said I'd make it 2 years, and I did.

 

All I said was Betts will be 28 his whole. first year. I did not argue that Price should count as a year older due to 42 days.

 

I'll take 3 prime and 9 post prime over 0 prime and 7 post prime.

 

Again, it would be 1 and 6 for Price, since he was 30 at the start of 2016.

[Bellhorn04]

I assume when "Making a Strawman" becomes an Olympic event, you will be representing Canada?

 

I do think it is a good idea to not give $200 mill/7 year contracts to pitchers over 30. Not really sure how that equates to "avoid pitchers altogether."

 

When I pointed out that the difference between Price and Betts was 2 years instead of the 4 you've been quoting, you dismissed it and deflected to the "But Price is a pitcher" argument.

[Bellhorn04]

One would expect Betts to be better at 37 than a pitcher.

 

I'm sure the Angels thought the same about Pujols.

[moonslav59]

Once JBJ becomes a FA, we'll have 40 on the roster. With 6 Rule 5 players to add and 3-5 free agents, minimum, we may need to clear 9-12 slots.

 

Assuming no trades or additions, which is highly unlikely, here are the certain or near 18 certain keepers:

(listed by seniority on 40 man roster)

Vaz

Bogey

Barnes

ERod

Beni

Sale

Devers

JD

Eovaldi

Chavis

DHern

Dalbec

Perez

Verdugo

Pivetta

Munoz

Arroyo

Houck

 

11 Near Expendable:

Walden

Brasier

Brewer

Taylor

Weber

Arauz

Mazza

Plawecki

Valdez

Covey

Grullon

 

11 Expendable:

Pedey

Chatham

Hart

Wilson

Aybar

Peraza

Brice

Springs

Hall

Stock

Puello

 

Once could argue most of the "near expendables" are players that could easily be replaced. They are not likely to be DFA'd, but trading some for prospects or players not 40-man roster required could be options:

 

11 Near Expendable:

Walden

Brasier

Brewer

Taylor

Weber

Arauz

Mazza

Plawecki

Valdez

Covey

Grullon

 

Only Plawecki and Taylor have clear roles on the 2021 team, and both could be easily replaced.

 

Add these 11 to the list of "expendables," and you get 22 players that are not really prized in any way.

 

This has to be one of the weakest bottom halves of a 40 man roster of any Sox team in a very long time.

 

Yes, I'm bringing up his name: thanks DD!

[moonslav59]

Once JBJ becomes a FA, we'll have 40 on the roster. With 6 Rule 5 players to add and 3-5 free agents, minimum, we may need to clear 9-12 slots.

 

Assuming no trades or additions, which is highly unlikely, here are the certain or near 18 certain keepers:

(listed by seniority on 40 man roster)

Vaz

Bogey

Barnes

ERod

Beni

Sale

Devers

JD

Eovaldi

Chavis

DHern

Dalbec

Perez

Verdugo

Pivetta

Munoz

Arroyo

Houck

 

11 Near Expendable:

Walden

Brasier

Brewer

Taylor

Weber

Arauz

Mazza

Plawecki

Valdez

Covey

Grullon

 

11 Expendable:

Pedey

Chatham

Hart

Wilson

Aybar

Peraza

Brice

Springs

Hall

Stock

Puello

Of the 18 "Keepers," ERod and Sale will likely start on the 60 Day IL, Beni and Eovaldi are questionable, Barnes & Perez are in their last year of team control, and Munoz, Arroyo and Pivetta are not really anyone to get too excited about. (I'll chalk 2021 up as an outlier for JD.) Vaz has been up and down. Houck started 6 games. Chavis could be mini-Middy. DHern still walks too many batters, and Dalbec's sample size is rather small.

 

Our core of healthy and durable players is rather small. One could view it as only 11 players, 2 of whom are FAs after 2021.:

Vaz

Bogey

Barnes

ERod

Devers

JD

DHern

Dalbec

Perez

Verdugo

Houck