A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[mvp 78]

His only real addition to the farm were Dalbec and Casas. So far to date, Groome is looking more like a bust, but he does have time to turn it around...

 

Casas, Mata, Song, Jiminez, Ward, Houck

[notin]

Casas, Mata, Song, Jiminez, Ward, Houck

 

Yeah I took that post down as I thought about it.

 

Duran, too...

[Bellhorn04]

So you agree that he "didn't trade away any good players" is understating it? Or at the very least, a premature statement?

 

I'll agree that it's premature, yes.

[jacksonianmarch]

DD brought in some flawed talent. He didn't have any real big INTL signees and no real draft steals to say the least. Now that flawed talent may turn into amazing players, but he certainly didnt seem to treat the minors or the draft or the INTL period as anything other than an annoyance

[Bellhorn04]

DD brought in some flawed talent. He didn't have any real big INTL signees and no real draft steals to say the least. Now that flawed talent may turn into amazing players, but he certainly didnt seem to treat the minors or the draft or the INTL period as anything other than an annoyance

 

Colorful hyperbole!

[Nick]

Hard to trade prospects that don't show any promise.

 

I don't get the love affair with Moncada. Sox thought they had better candidate in Devers. Pedey was still in play at 2B. You're not going to get Sale's contract for NOTHING.

 

I wished we didn't have to give up Kopech. He's the only one I regret giving up but he's also hurt.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't get the love affair with Moncada. Sox thought they had better candidate in Devers. Pedey was still in play at 2B. You're not going to get Sale's contract for NOTHING.

 

I wished we didn't have to give up Kopech. He's the only one I regret giving up but he's also hurt.

 

It almost seems like karmic algebra that Dave traded two starting pitchers who got hurt, and traded for two relievers who got hurt.

 

Or maybe what it says is that pitchers are incredibly fragile and risky assets these days...

[mvp 78]

Yeah I took that post down as I thought about it.

 

Duran, too...

 

Hey, if Dombrowski was here in 2020, he'd probably have traded a few of those guys too!

[mvp 78]

DD brought in some flawed talent. He didn't have any real big INTL signees and no real draft steals to say the least. Now that flawed talent may turn into amazing players, but he certainly didnt seem to treat the minors or the draft or the INTL period as anything other than an annoyance

 

Thanks to Ben sanctions for cheating.

[mvp 78]

I don't get the love affair with Moncada. Sox thought they had better candidate in Devers. Pedey was still in play at 2B. You're not going to get Sale's contract for NOTHING.

 

I wished we didn't have to give up Kopech. He's the only one I regret giving up but he's also hurt.

 

Moncada is a boom or bust guy. He stunk this year in part due to COVID. Maybe he can turn it around in 2021? He was legit in 2019 if you look at his numbers. In terms of fWAR, his 5.7 would be the 3rd best of Pedroia's career.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One of the advantages of having a good farm is to use those prospects as tradebait to upgrade the big league roster. No should argue that, nor that it's all about proper timing, whether a team is making a title run or just a playoff push.

 

The industry raves about the Rays' conga line of bullpeners, but I agree with Big Papi that if someone is unhittable in a big postseason game, leave him in there and nail it down. Tampa's four best relievers gave up runs the other night in succession: Fairbanks, Castillo, Loup and Anderson.

 

I'm not interested in that blueprint of constantly changing pitchers every single inning... hoping they're all on, every night. Give me a workhorse starting pitcher who can go more than -- gasp -- five freaking frames. Please?

[moonslav59]

DD brought in some flawed talent. He didn't have any real big INTL signees and no real draft steals to say the least. Now that flawed talent may turn into amazing players, but he certainly didnt seem to treat the minors or the draft or the INTL period as anything other than an annoyance

 

He did pretty well with the low draft picks he had.

 

He sucked at IFA signings. The Moncada cost was huge, and we pretty much gave that money away along with Moncada, Kopech and others to get Sale.

 

The jury is still out on many of the prospects he traded, but a large amount have not lived up to expectations. He kept Devers, and that was smart.

[jacksonianmarch]

He did pretty well with the low draft picks he had.

 

He sucked at IFA signings. The Moncada cost was huge, and we pretty much gave that money away along with Moncada, Kopech and others to get Sale.

 

The jury is still out on many of the prospects he traded, but a large amount have not lived up to expectations. He kept Devers, and that was smart.

 

Traded prospects are traded prospects. Their value doesnt essentially equate to what they became, but to what it was at the time of the deal. The biggest sin from DD was that he burned a wave to win a title and didnt work hard enough to ensure another wave was there to even supplement the stars with league average talent. There was such a gulf from the A level talent to the minor league talent that the team grew top heavy and unable to endure any tumult

[notin]

Hey, if Dombrowski was here in 2020, he'd probably have traded a few of those guys too!

 

a FEW?

[moonslav59]

Traded prospects are traded prospects. Their value doesnt essentially equate to what they became, but to what it was at the time of the deal. The biggest sin from DD was that he burned a wave to win a title and didnt work hard enough to ensure another wave was there to even supplement the stars with league average talent. There was such a gulf from the A level talent to the minor league talent that the team grew top heavy and unable to endure any tumult

 

I agree, but fans judge GMs almost entirely in hindsight- fair or not, and the fact that so many of those traded prospects have flamed out, got hurt or have yet to prove greatness has created the belief that all was good.

 

Take one trade in isolation: Pom for Espinoza. Pom did well for us in one year, but did not contribute to a ring. Espinoza has been hurt, so the trade looks good or at worst a push, but one can imagine us trading Espinoza for another player with 4-5 years of team control that could still be helping us, now. The equation should not only be looked at as trade made vs no trade made.

[notin]

He did pretty well with the low draft picks he had.

 

He sucked at IFA signings. The Moncada cost was huge, and we pretty much gave that money away along with Moncada, Kopech and others to get Sale.

 

The jury is still out on many of the prospects he traded, but a large amount have not lived up to expectations. He kept Devers, and that was smart.

 

They might not have lived up to expectations or become stars, but there is value in the mere act of making the MLB club and playing for league minimum...

[mvp 78]

a FEW?

 

Or maybe he would have just resigned for having to dump Mookie and Price?

[dgalehouse]

Dombrowski's Red Sox won the A.L. East three consecutive years. That had never happened before. And it may be a while until it happens again. That's a pretty big deal.

[Bellhorn04]

They might not have lived up to expectations or become stars, but there is value in the mere act of making the MLB club and playing for league minimum...

 

If they generate value above replacement level.

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski's Red Sox won the A.L. East three consecutive years. That had never happened before. And it may be a while until it happens again. That's a pretty big deal.

 

It was a decent achievement, but like so many other things, you have to put it in perspective.

 

-The first thing is that there have only been 3 divisions since 1995.

-Second is that the 2016 and 2017 teams each won 93 games. That's very good but hardly great. There were a number of seasons the Red Sox won 95 games or more and didn't win the division.

 

Not trying to be the cooler here, the 2016-2018 run was great, but it really needed 2018 to be great.

[notin]

It was a decent achievement, but like so many other things, you have to put it in perspective.

 

-The first thing is that there have only been 3 divisions since 1995.

-Second is that the 2016 and 2017 teams each won 93 games. That's very good but hardly great. There were a number of seasons the Red Sox won 95 games or more and didn't win the division.

 

Not trying to be the cooler here, the 2016-2018 run was great, but it really needed 2018 to be great.

 

You're ruining his oversimplification.

 

DD did build 3 pennant winners, but he with the Yankees doing some rebuilding...

[moonslav59]

The 3 divisions wins, even with the context, is a big plus for DD. The great 2018 season, IMO, put him over the top on the overall plus-minus scale.

 

The state he left the team is also certainly a minus on his record. It's all subjective, so to each his own on the final score.

Edited October 26, 2020 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

Keep in mind that Dombrowski took over a team with serious pitching deficiencies, both starters and bullpen. And there was no apparent pitching help on the way in the ( well stocked and thriving) farm system. Not the mention that the team had finished last the previous two seasons and the fans were getting restless. How is that for an " oversimplification " ?

[moonslav59]

Must be added to the 40 man roster by November 20th to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft:

 

Bryan Mata

Jay Groome

Connor Seabold

Hudson Potts

Jeisson Rosario

Connor Wong

 

We may also add a player through the Rule 5 Draft or a player or two cut loose by other teams.

 

What 7-9 players will be released to make room for these 7-9 players?

 

1. Is it time to cut ties with Pedey?

2. Is ERod's health issues severe enough to non-tender him?

3. Peraza ia likely non tendered

4A. Out of option players on the bubble: Kickham, Lin, Brice, Puello, Godley

4B. Players with options on the bubble: Hart, Aybar, Triggs, Hall, Springs, Walden, Wilson, Chatham, Stock, Leyer

[notin]

Keep in mind that Dombrowski took over a team with serious pitching deficiencies, both starters and bullpen. And there was no apparent pitching help on the way in the ( well stocked and thriving) farm system. Not the mention that the team had finished last the previous two seasons and the fans were getting restless. How is that for an " oversimplification " ?

 

Well, he took over a team with a slightly below average pitching staff that had a team ERA- of 104 in 2015 and an ERA- of 100 in 2014.

 

"Serious pitching deficiencies" is a bit of an overstatement. Now, he did add the arms to get that number down to a much better 91 in 2016...

[moonslav59]

Keep in mind that Dombrowski took over a team with serious pitching deficiencies, both starters and bullpen. And there was no apparent pitching help on the way in the ( well stocked and thriving) farm system. Not the mention that the team had finished last the previous two seasons and the fans were getting restless. How is that for an " oversimplification " ?

 

He was brilliant getting Porcello to go from 9-15 4.92 to Cy Young, Steven Wright to go from 5-4 4.09 to 13-6 3.33 and paying Price $31M x 7.

 

Props the DD!

 

Adding Price and Kimbrel certainly helped turn the staff around, but they both came with a price we are still paying today. (Like the pun?)

 

I still say, had Pom and HRam (not to mention Wright and others) had their 2016 seasons in 2015, Ben might still be around.

[moonslav59]

Well, he took over a team with a slightly below average pitching staff that had a team ERA- of 104 in 2015 and an ERA- of 100 in 2014.

 

"Serious pitching deficiencies" is a bit of an overstatement. Now, he did add the arms to get that number down to a much better 91 in 2016...

 

The big gain was more a result of Porcello and Wright than Price and Kimbrel.

[moonslav59]

The turn around from 2015 to 2016 (15 wins) was helped greatly by many players from Ben & Theo's teams jumping in value:

 

2015>2016 fWAR

4.8>8.3 Betts

1.9>5.3 JBJ

2.3>4.9 Pedey

4.6>4.9 Bogey

2.9> 4.5 Ortiz

-1.2>3.0 HRam

-0.8> 2.2 Leon

 

1.7> 5.1 Porcello

-0.1>2.9 Wright

 

Price 4.4

Kimbrel 1.2

 

Porcello + Wright's gains> Price + Kimbrel total

[mvp 78]

Must be added to the 40 man roster by November 20th to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft:

 

Bryan Mata

Jay Groome

Connor Seabold

Hudson Potts

Jeisson Rosario

Connor Wong

 

We may also add a player through the Rule 5 Draft or a player or two cut loose by other teams.

 

What 7-9 players will be released to make room for these 7-9 players?

 

1. Is it time to cut ties with Pedey?

2. Is ERod's health issues severe enough to non-tender him?

3. Peraza ia likely non tendered

4A. Out of option players on the bubble: Kickham, Lin, Brice, Puello, Godley

4B. Players with options on the bubble: Hart, Aybar, Triggs, Hall, Springs, Walden, Wilson, Chatham, Stock, Leyer

 

Brice, Covey, Godley, Hall, Hart, Kickham, Leyer, Stock, Triggs, Walden, Peraza, Chatham, Lin

 

I bet they keep Aybar since he's the youngest pitcher on the 40 man.

[notin]

The big gain was more a result of Porcello and Wright than Price and Kimbrel.

 

And by jettisoning a few arms like Miley and Masterson...