A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

This may be the soonest I’ve ever started this yearly thread. Our 2020 team is on pace for the worst winning percentage in team history. It was not really unexpected. The cliff was real, and it is here, now. That being said, I think we have a pretty solid core to build around, and if Henry opens the checkbook, this winter, we may be able to turn this around much more quickly than many expect it might take.

 

Our 40 man roster is about the weakest from 20-40 as I’ve ever seen, but our farm improved a little with the Betts trade and some growth by a few of our prospects. I’m not seeing much help for 2021 from the farm, however. Most of our best prospects are 1.5 to 3+ years away.

 

Here is a breakdown of what we are looking at for 2021 (and beyond):

 

Budget in Lux Tax Dollars:

25.0 Sale

22.0 JD

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

16.0 Price ($ to LAD)

13.8 Pedroia

5.00 Beni

4.51 Vaz

 

Options:

6.25 Perez ($500K buyout)

3.0 Moreland ($500K buyout)

 

ARB Players (2020 pay)

8.3 ERod -last arb

3.0 Barnes -last arb

2.9 Peraza -2 arbs left

1.61 Hembree -last arb

0.90 Plawecki - 2 more

0.85 J Osich -2 more

0.70 D Covey -3 more

0.69 DEVERS -1st of 3 left

0.58 Brasier -1st of 3 left

0.57 Brice -1st of 3 left

 

Free Agents after 2020:

11.0 JBJ

4.25 Pillar

3.50 Workman

 

Cots Estimated Luxury Tax Total for 2021: $141.6M

($68.4M under the threshold).

 

Assuming all options are given and all arb players are kept, here is what we are looking at for 2021:

 

40 Man Roster

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Moreland, Chavis

2B: Peraza, Arauz, Pedroia (60 day IL)

3B: Devers, Dalbec, C Arroyo

SS: Bogaerts, Chatham, Lin

LF: Benintendi

CF: (Acquisition)/Duran is rule 5 after 2021

RF: Verdugo

DH: Martinez

SP: Sale (60 day IL), Eovaldi, ERod, Perez, Weber, Godley

SP: Mazza, Shawaryn, Hart, Stock

RP: Barnes, D Hern, Taylor, Hembree, Walden, Osich, Valdez, Brice

RP: Hall, Covey, Gonsalves, Springs

Possible Rule 5 additions: Mata, Downs, Houck, C Wong

 

I’d say our top priority, positional acquisitions might be:

SP (Ace)

SP (strong #3 type)

Closer

CF

RP

RP

4th OF

SP depth

 

Projected 26 Man Roster:

C: Vaz & Plawecki

1B: Moreland & Dalbec (Chavis traded)

2B: Peraza & Arauz

3B: Devers & Arroyo

SS: Bogey

LF: Beni

CF: _____

RF: Verdugo

DH: JD

SP: ______, Eovaldi, ERod, _____, Perez

RP: ______, Barnes, _____, DHern, Hembree, _____, Walden

 

Let the discussion begin...

[moonslav59]

If we trade Barnes & Hembree, we'll have over $70M to spend this winter, and stay under the Lux Tax. If we are okay with going over by less than $20M, we could have about $92M to spend.

 

$25M/yr SP

$15M Closer

$13M/yr SP

$10M CF

$10M RP

$7M SP

 

$80M total

[notin]

The clearcut strength of the 2021 Red Sox will be the utility infielder position. With Peraza, Lin, Arroyo, Yairo Munoz, Arausz, and CJ Chatham all in the mix for that one spot.

 

It might be nice if one of them can step up and take over 2B...

[notin]

While their values are equal on baseballtradevalues.com, I think it would be smarter to deal Dalbec over Chavis. Chavis is etablishing himself nicely into the weak side platoon at 1B, and is probably not an everyday player. Dalbec, on the other hand, probably has some more appeal around the league as a potential starting 3B, and, unlike Chavis, has yet to disprove he can handle the role. Why hand that role over to Dalbec when Chavis is actually handling it nicely and has somehow come close to being an actual bright spot on this abysmal team?

 

Maybe he can get a decent arm for Dalbec, even if it is a pen arm. Or a CF. (Dalbec to St. Louis for Harrison Bader? Dalbec to Tampa for Randy Arozarena?) The wildest of wild cards might be to move Dalbec to the OF, but I don't consider that to be all that likely...

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s going to be really hard to compete in 2021 with what the Sox have. My bet is they add to the SP via a FA acquisition as Sale insurance. I also assume ERod ends up a deadline trade casualty as he really cannot be dealt in 2020 and is only under contract for one more season.

 

The biggest acquisition the Sox will make will be via the draft. Strange times when it’s highly possible the guys being drafted haven’t played college or high school baseball in over a year. But the Sox should have a top 5 pick, and with some deadline attrition, it’s certainly possible the Sox have a top 2 pick. You’ve got a shot at a generational talent, and you cannot miss

[notin]

It’s going to be really hard to compete in 2021 with what the Sox have. My bet is they add to the SP via a FA acquisition as Sale insurance. I also assume ERod ends up a deadline trade casualty as he really cannot be dealt in 2020 and is only under contract for one more season.

 

The biggest acquisition the Sox will make will be via the draft. Strange times when it’s highly possible the guys being drafted haven’t played college or high school baseball in over a year. But the Sox should have a top 5 pick, and with some deadline attrition, it’s certainly possible the Sox have a top 2 pick. You’ve got a shot at a generational talent, and you cannot miss

 

They could also extend ERod, assuming he is ever healthy enough to pitch again...

[oldtimer]

This may be the soonest I’ve ever started this yearly thread. Our 2020 team is on pace for the worst winning percentage in team history. It was not really unexpected. The cliff was real, and it is here, now. That being said, I think we have a pretty solid core to build around, and if Henry opens the checkbook, this winter, we may be able to turn this around much more quickly than many expect it might take.

 

Our 40 man roster is about the weakest from 20-40 as I’ve ever seen, but our farm improved a little with the Betts trade and some growth by a few of our prospects. I’m not seeing much help for 2021 from the farm, however. Most of our best prospects are 1.5 to 3+ years away.

 

Here is a breakdown of what we are looking at for 2021 (and beyond):

 

Budget in Lux Tax Dollars:

25.0 Sale

22.0 JD

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

16.0 Price ($ to LAD)

13.8 Pedroia

5.00 Beni

4.51 Vaz

 

Options:

6.25 Perez ($500K buyout)

3.0 Moreland ($500K buyout)

 

ARB Players (2020 pay)

8.3 ERod -last arb

3.0 Barnes -last arb

2.9 Peraza -2 arbs left

1.61 Hembree -last arb

0.90 Plawecki - 2 more

0.85 J Osich -2 more

0.70 D Covey -3 more

0.69 DEVERS -1st of 3 left

0.58 Brasier -1st of 3 left

0.57 Brice -1st of 3 left

 

Free Agents after 2020:

11.0 JBJ

4.25 Pillar

3.50 Workman

 

Cots Estimated Luxury Tax Total for 2021: $141.6M

($68.4M under the threshold).

 

Assuming all options are given and all arb players are kept, here is what we are looking at for 2021:

 

40 Man Roster

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Moreland, Chavis

2B: Peraza, Arauz, Pedroia (60 day IL)

3B: Devers, Dalbec, C Arroyo

SS: Bogaerts, Chatham, Lin

LF: Benintendi

CF: (Acquisition)/Duran is rule 5 after 2021

RF: Verdugo

DH: Martinez

SP: Sale (60 day IL), Eovaldi, ERod, Perez, Weber, Godley

SP: Mazza, Shawaryn, Hart, Stock

RP: Barnes, D Hern, Taylor, Hembree, Walden, Osich, Valdez, Brice

RP: Hall, Covey, Gonsalves, Springs

Possible Rule 5 additions: Mata, Downs, Houck, C Wong

 

I’d say our top priority, positional acquisitions might be:

SP (Ace)

SP (strong #3 type)

Closer

CF

RP

RP

4th OF

SP depth

 

Projected 26 Man Roster:

C: Vaz & Plawecki

1B: Moreland & Dalbec (Chavis traded)

2B: Peraza & Arauz

3B: Devers & Arroyo

SS: Bogey

LF: Beni

CF: _____

RF: Verdugo

DH: JD

SP: ______, Eovaldi, ERod, _____, Perez

RP: ______, Barnes, _____, DHern, Hembree, _____, Walden

 

Let the discussion begin...

First of all, it is not too early to talk about 2021. The 2020 season is toast as we knew it would be only worse, due to the unexpected loss of E-Rod, D-Hern and Walden. And MLBB, who took action to force the change of Manager. Congratulations on putting together a comprehensive and reasonable of players with your expectations of who will return, be traded and where our glaring holes will be. No doubt Bloom and the Sox staff have a similar list being developed and if they are smart, which I believe they are, they have a budget in mind for every position.

 

The 26 man roster:

C I agree

1B I agree again although we may be trading one low average masher for another

2B I like Arauz and we have Downs in the wings (maybe for 2022), I am ambivalent with Peraza. These guys offer flexibility for short and possibly 3rd but if Arroyo works out do we need both?

3B Definitely Devers but Arroyo is a crap shoot.

SS I agree

LF I am not sold on Beni (average defender, no power, questionable hitter). Could we do better? We made excuses for JBJ over the years due to his defense. Is Beni JBJ2 without the defense?

CF We won't resign JBJ and Duran may be capable, but more likely we need to look for a trade or through FA.

RF I agree

DH JDM is probably with us for 2021, unless an unlikely trade takes place. If it does, DH can be filled for less money. I don't expect a championship year so why spend big at that position?

SP I agree. Perhaps we can fill one starter from the minors which makes a search of the FA markets likely. Please, no big long term contracts for 2021.

RP I don't expect Barnes back so we need a couple from our prospects and some in trade or from FAs.

 

Acquisitions: CF, LF, (possible Duran for one of those or 4th outfielder, SP (Ace), possible 3rd although can we promote a prospect? Closer as Workman is probably gone. Stock the minors with quality prospects through the draft and from trades.

 

Manager: No manager could make the existing 2020 crew a competitive team and yet I think a young manager and some new coaches are needed.

 

What cash will be available sounds like the equivalent of the total Rays budget for the year. Lets hope Bloom will continue to be clever in his acquisitions as he was with the Rays.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I expect rebounds from all the regulars who won a ring just two years ago. However, I don't expect all the rebounds to happen in '21 nor for the Red Sox. The ancient phrase "change of scenery" may be relevant, especially for guys that went from the penthouse to the outhouse. Going somewhere new, joining a new group still hungry, has a way of reigniting the competitive fires, with the added incentive to prove you can still do it (especially, for those on the verge on bigger paydays).

 

For those same reasons, Boston may be well-served to bring in new blood: at manager, coaches and roster.

[notin]

If the Sox can reset and spend a little, they could fill some gaps through free agency. Some names that appeal to me

 

SP: Trevor Bauer is the obvious target. He'll cost and have some sort of evil long term contract, but the Sox need arms. Fallback options include Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray. Beyond that, some depth signings with some intrigue include Mike Minor and Jake Odirizzi. Outside of Bauer, none of these are real game changers. Garrett Richards is a mega talent who would probably be better off moving to closer.

 

RP. Weak year for RP, but Kirby Yates, Ken Giles, Keone Kela, Trevor May and Liam Hendriks. Chris Devenski is a reasonably good non-closer who is available.

 

2B: Assuming the Sox do not try to solve this in-house from the Utility Infielder Crowd, Cesar Hernandez is a very underrated player. Jonathan Schoop will be available again this year, like he is every year, and is apparently a very good friend of Xander Bogaerts. Jonathan Villar has become a useful player as well, which no one saw coming.

 

CF: Springer is the headliner and only real game changer, but maybe that money is better spent on pitching. Beyond him, the best options are the players Boston is losing, in Bradley and Pillar. Sox are probably better off avoiding Springer, as he is likely to be one of the two biggest draws in this class (along with Bauer).

 

OF: Now the Sox could move on a corner OF and switch Benintendi to CF, which is not anyone's wish on this forum. But if that happens, Marcell Ozuna and Nick Castellanos (if he opts out) become the bigger names. Joc Pederson would also be available, but unless someone gives him a chance to learn to hit LHP, the interest should be limited. I suppose either Ozuna or Pederson are as capable in CF as Benintendi...

[a700hitter]

Bloom: “A lot of work to do”. That’s an understatement.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29678813/boston-red-sox-executive-chaim-bloom-says-team-lot-work-do

[moonslav59]

It’s going to be really hard to compete in 2021 with what the Sox have. My bet is they add to the SP via a FA acquisition as Sale insurance. I also assume ERod ends up a deadline trade casualty as he really cannot be dealt in 2020 and is only under contract for one more season.

 

The biggest acquisition the Sox will make will be via the draft. Strange times when it’s highly possible the guys being drafted haven’t played college or high school baseball in over a year. But the Sox should have a top 5 pick, and with some deadline attrition, it’s certainly possible the Sox have a top 2 pick. You’ve got a shot at a generational talent, and you cannot miss

 

We could spend a ton of money, this winter and get more than just a SP'er.

[Nick]

We could spend a ton of money, this winter and get more than just a SP'er.

 

For the paying customers and to the position players, GM must be able to put a starting pitcher that has reasonable ability to keep the team in a game, every day. Sure, there will be blowouts but that should work both ways.

 

Getting the pitching staff under control has to be #1 priority for any legit baseball organization. You start there.

 

I'll take 5 Cy Young winners with minor league lineup over good hitting team with this year's Sox starting pitching.

[notin]

For the paying customers and to the position players, GM must be able to put a starting pitcher that has reasonable ability to keep the team in a game, every day. Sure, there will be blowouts but that should work both ways.

 

Getting the pitching staff under control has to be #1 priority for any legit baseball organization. You start there.

 

I'll take 5 Cy Young winners with minor league lineup over good hitting team with this year's Sox starting pitching.

 

When Dombrowski was running the Tigers, he had a rotation that included the last three Cy Young winners (Scherzer,, Price and Verlander) at the time. And they started 3 straight postseason games against the Orioles and lost all three.

 

Funny how those things turn out...

Edited August 18, 2020 by notin

[moonslav59]

For the paying customers and to the position players, GM must be able to put a starting pitcher that has reasonable ability to keep the team in a game, every day. Sure, there will be blowouts but that should work both ways.

 

Getting the pitching staff under control has to be #1 priority for any legit baseball organization. You start there.

 

I'll take 5 Cy Young winners with minor league lineup over good hitting team with this year's Sox starting pitching.

 

Agreed. At best, we may see this:

 

$25M/yr SP

$15M Closer

$13M/yr SP

$7M RP

$6M CF

$4M SP

 

$70M total - still under the tax

 

We could add about $20M and stay under the second threshold.

[notin]

Agreed. At best, we may see this:

 

$25M/yr SP

$15M Closer

$13M/yr SP

$7M RP

$6M CF

$4M SP

 

$70M total - still under the tax

 

We could add about $20M and stay under the second threshold.

 

If the Sox reset, will they care about being under?

[mvp 78]

0-162

[Bellhorn04]

0-162

 

Nice to see some optimism about playing a full season.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox reset, will they care about being under?

 

I'd say no, but if they view the rebuild as a two year thing, they may end up under, next year.

 

It also may depend on what free agents are available, and if they view their price tags as worthy.

 

I think they will go large this winter, and Bllom may have a mandate to stay under the second luxury tax level, which I think is $20M over. That would give us close to $90M to spend- maybe $80-85 to keep some room for the deadline.

 

$85M could maybe be spent like this:

 

$28M SP

$18M Closer

$17M SP

$10M RP

$8M CF

$4M SP

 

Or, we try to get Bauer & Springer and fill-ins for the rest.

[moonslav59]

Nice to see some optimism about playing a full season.

 

LOL.

 

Finding optimism in 0-162. I like it.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Marcus semian Trevor Bauer ? Maybe replace Benny with Puig at Fenway .I get Puig is a triangle inside a sphere inside a cone done care .

[oldtimer]

If the Sox reset, will they care about being under?

 

If the Sox don't see a legitimate chance to compete in 2021, why set the CBT running again? Make improvements that can be made for $70 mil (or so) and save the plunge for the following year, when we may be back competing for a run in the post season. That said, I do expect big changes and substantial improvement next season. I'm. A month o still hoping management will bring up our most ready prospects to see what they can do. There will be a month of PT after the trade deadline and we could see vacancies open up on the roster.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox don't see a legitimate chance to compete in 2021, why set the CBT running again? Make improvements that can be made for $70 mil (or so) and save the plunge for the following year, when we may be back competing for a run in the post season. That said, I do expect big changes and substantial improvement next season. I'm. A month o still hoping management will bring up our most ready prospects to see what they can do. There will be a month of PT after the trade deadline and we could see vacancies open up on the roster.

 

I agree.

 

I do think we'll at least get close to the tax limit in 2021. We do want fans to be in the seats and people watching on NESN.

 

It might make more sense to hold off on the tax for one more year, but we could still spend big on players who will be under team control beyond 2021. We could also free up some salary by trading JD or other big ticket players that don't look to be part of our longer term plans (2022 and beyond). For example, we could trade JD & Eovalid and sign Bauer and Springer. We'd still be way under the tax, so we could add a few mid level players, which is what Bloom may be best at acquiring. Then, go large again after 2021 and go $19.9M over the tax,

[Nick]

I agree.

 

I do think we'll at least get close to the tax limit in 2021. We do want fans to be in the seats and people watching on NESN.

 

It might make more sense to hold off on the tax for one more year, but we could still spend big on players who will be under team control beyond 2021. We could also free up some salary by trading JD or other big ticket players that don't look to be part of our longer term plans (2022 and beyond). For example, we could trade JD & Eovalid and sign Bauer and Springer. We'd still be way under the tax, so we could add a few mid level players, which is what Bloom may be best at acquiring. Then, go large again after 2021 and go $19.9M over the tax,

 

I prefer we go with mid level free agents until we're ready to compete. What I don't want is 2 big signings and still have a bad team and be stuck again with 2 losing contracts.

[moonslav59]

Hmm...

 

The Red Sox are set to add first base prospect Triston Casas to their 60-man player pool, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. He’ll head to their alternate site. As Cotillo notes, Boston’s pool is at capacity, so it’ll have to make a corresponding move once Casas is officially part of it.

[moonslav59]

I prefer we go with mid level free agents until we're ready to compete. What I don't want is 2 big signings and still have a bad team and be stuck again with 2 losing contracts.

 

Not a bad idea, but if we see someone we think is the real deal, and looks better than any FAs from the following year, we may want to pounce on one.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

LOL.

 

Finding optimism in 0-162. I like it.

 

In watching the SOX during the next couple of years, the optimism/pessimism question will be "is the whiskey bottle half full or half empty?"

Edited August 19, 2020 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

It's pretty optimistic of me to even imply that there actually may be "the next couple of years."

[moonslav59]

It's pretty optimistic of me to even imply that there actually may be "the next couple of years."

 

We'll be in the playoffs by 2022, if the virus or climate hasn't done us in by then.

[notin]

If the Sox don't see a legitimate chance to compete in 2021, why set the CBT running again? Make improvements that can be made for $70 mil (or so) and save the plunge for the following year, when we may be back competing for a run in the post season. That said, I do expect big changes and substantial improvement next season. I'm. A month o still hoping management will bring up our most ready prospects to see what they can do. There will be a month of PT after the trade deadline and we could see vacancies open up on the roster.

 

Well of course you see no chance to compete in 2021 now. But maybe once some moves are made and people are healthy and we know what the team looks like. I imagine people were making similar statements in 2012...

[oldtimer]

In watching the SOX during the next couple of years, the optimism/pessimism question will be "is the whiskey bottle half full or half empty?"

 

Take another drink and solve the conundrum.