A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

I think any ponying up has to go toward pitching.

 

Agreed.

 

I'm on the Bauer Bandwagon.

 

But there i a good chance someone goes ll in for 7 or 8 years there, and then I'm going to have second thoughts about the Bauer Bandwagon, and sit back and be thankful I'm not an actual GM...

[mvp 78]

I think any ponying up has to go toward pitching.

 

I would tend to agree. It's a new world with Bloom in charge so we really have no idea which direction he'll go with.

[moonslav59]

I agree.

 

We need an ace and another SP'er, even if just for depth.

We need a legit closer.

We could probably use another solid pen arm.

 

2B and CF are holes, for sure, but to me, they are secondary priorities to pitching.

 

At least we have 4-5 guys to choose from at 2B, even though none look very promising. CF and OF depth will be addressed- just maybe not with a lot of cash.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I would tend to agree. It's a new world with Bloom in charge so we really have no idea which direction he'll go with.

 

Two winters ago, while the Sox were breaking the bank on Sale and Eovaldi, the Rays made maybe the best pitcher signing with Charlie Morton: a couple years at 15 mil. He's been hurt most of this summer, but almost won the Cy Young last year. Tampa holds a team-friendly vesting option for '21 (as long as he spends less than 30 days on the IL for the last two seasons combined).

 

With the industry in trouble and Covid-19 not going away, we may see more deals like Morton's (who was already an All-Star, albeit an old one, when he signed).

[vegasbob]

Springer? Re-unite him with Matt Barnes?

 

Bradley? Pillar? Back for another year.

 

Or maybe a stopgap 1-2 year solution like Michael Taylor? A very good defensive OF with good RHH pop but an inconsistent bat. The only 2 years he got semi-regular playing time, he posted a .730 OPS with 25 HRs in 850 PAs in a rather cavernous statdium.

 

If the Sox go stopgap at 2B, I still like Schoop as an option...

 

Much prefer seeing Pillar on a one year deal, maybe with option, at his price than signing JBJr , even at 50% of his 2021 price. I do not believe Jackie will find riches and a long (5 yr) deal available in this winter's FA market. Way too many unknowns re: Covid and the 2021 season, plus Jackie's now well documented streakiness.

 

In any case Pillar would be a fill-in while Bloom makes other plans for the future, so go with the cheaper guy for now.

[notin]

Much prefer seeing Pillar on a one year deal, maybe with option, at his price than signing JBJr , even at 50% of his 2021 price. I do not believe Jackie will find riches and a long (5 yr) deal available in this winter's FA market. Way too many unknowns re: Covid and the 2021 season, plus Jackie's now well documented streakiness.

 

In any case Pillar would be a fill-in while Bloom makes other plans for the future, so go with the cheaper guy for now.

 

I could see any of Bradley, Pillar or even Taylor (who might be the longshot of the three) as a stopgap CF on a short contract. I do think Bloom won't go on an all-out spending spree. But who knows? We have seen these small market GMs known for building from within on a budget behave differently when they have access to actual financial resources. Notably Duquette, Dan...

[oldtimer]

I could see any of Bradley, Pillar or even Taylor (who might be the longshot of the three) as a stopgap CF on a short contract. I do think Bloom won't go on an all-out spending spree. But who knows? We have seen these small market GMs known for building from within on a budget behave differently when they have access to actual financial resources. Notably Duquette, Dan...

 

We really just have one outfielder for 2021 as a sure thing and he is Verdugo. Bradley may be back but as a FA, we may not want to compete with $s or yrs. Beni is with us but can we rely on him to be a factor for us? He was trending down for quite a while now. Duran looks very possible for next season so I wonder why they just didn't try him this year. If we have Verdugo, Beni and either JBJ or Duran, we wind up with 3 left hand hitting outfielders. Maybe resigning Pillar as a FA would be a better bet.

[mvp 78]

Pillar was impressive this year. I would definitely look to bring him back in 2021.

[notin]

We really just have one outfielder for 2021 as a sure thing and he is Verdugo. Bradley may be back but as a FA, we may not want to compete with $s or yrs. Beni is with us but can we rely on him to be a factor for us? He was trending down for quite a while now. Duran looks very possible for next season so I wonder why they just didn't try him this year. If we have Verdugo, Beni and either JBJ or Duran, we wind up with 3 left hand hitting outfielders. Maybe resigning Pillar as a FA would be a better bet.

 

Whether or not Benintendi is on his way down is to be determined. But for all his years on the team, he is still only one year older than Dalbec...

[moonslav59]

Beni will be part of the 2021 team, if and until he proves he doesn't belong.

 

He won't be traded this winter, IMO. Eovaldi or Barnes might be.

[notin]

Pillar was impressive this year. I would definitely look to bring him back in 2021.

 

The Sox do have career backup rifle-armed defensive whiz Cesar Puello at the training site. He’s not much for hitting, but might be a tolerable dirt cheap weak side platoon/4th outfielder if the Sox bring back Bradley...

[mvp 78]

The Sox do have career backup rifle-armed defensive whiz Cesar Puello at the training site. He’s not much for hitting, but might be a tolerable dirt cheap weak side platoon/4th outfielder if the Sox bring back Bradley...

 

You still on the that Puello nonsense?

[notin]

You still on the that Puello nonsense?

 

Someone has to be!!!

[mvp 78]

Someone has to be!!!

 

Let it be a fan from Puello’s 9th organization.

[Kimmi]

No big names on the CF market this offseason.

 

They need to decide if they want to bring JBJ back on a one year deal or bring up Duran. 2B? God knows what they'll do there. Too many mediocre options.

 

Welcome back Pedroia!

[Kimmi]

Agreed.

 

I'm on the Bauer Bandwagon.

 

But there i a good chance someone goes ll in for 7 or 8 years there, and then I'm going to have second thoughts about the Bauer Bandwagon, and sit back and be thankful I'm not an actual GM...

 

If that's the case, I'm a hard NO.

[oldtimer]

Welcome back Pedroia!

 

We still will pay him next year.

[vegasbob]

We still will pay him next year.

 

Ol' Rusney is done this year , isn't he ? I'm wondering if Pedey can actually walk . A personal suspicion that his medical advice and procedures were not right for him, and when combined with an aggressive rehab program Dustin cooked his own goose. Many players in all major sports recover sufficiently to play well from knee injuries . Pedey should have been no exception.

[notin]

Ol' Rusney is done this year , isn't he ? I'm wondering if Pedey can actually walk . A personal suspicion that his medical advice and procedures were not right for him, and when combined with an aggressive rehab program Dustin cooked his own goose. Many players in all major sports recover sufficiently to play well from knee injuries . Pedey should have been no exception.

 

Pedroia has the same injury Grady Sizemore had. And as long as it’s been since Sizemore was the superstar CF, bear in mind he’s only a year older than Pedroia...

[moonslav59]

Ol' Rusney is done this year , isn't he ? I'm wondering if Pedey can actually walk . A personal suspicion that his medical advice and procedures were not right for him, and when combined with an aggressive rehab program Dustin cooked his own goose. Many players in all major sports recover sufficiently to play well from knee injuries . Pedey should have been no exception.

 

Yes, Rusney's deal is done. While it doesn't represent a tax savings due to some finagling, it's still $14M less Henry is paying.

 

Pedey's deal drops after 2021 (about $14M on the luxury tax docket).

 

Saving $16M a year on Price helps, too.

 

I'm hopeful the financial outlook spurs Henry into opening up his wallet.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beni will be part of the 2021 team, if and until he proves he doesn't belong.

 

He won't be traded this winter, IMO. Eovaldi or Barnes might be.

 

Eovaldi’s chance was this year. The fade and IL stint killed that chance. He’s stuck with you unless you eat another bad contract

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi’s chance was this year. The fade and IL stint killed that chance. He’s stuck with you unless you eat another bad contract

 

I don't disagree. I actually said, "Trade him" after his good start- right before he fizzled and went on the IL.

 

If we can get someone to pay part of his contract or make an Eovaldi-Odor type trade, it might be worth it.

[Kimmi]

We still will pay him next year.

 

Yes we do. And Price too.

[mvp 78]

Chris Hatfield over at SoxProspects:

 

40-man is currently at 39.

+ Pedroia, ERod, Sale (they all have to go back on the 40 over the offseason. There's no offseason injured list.)

- JBJ, McHugh

I do not project that JDM will opt out.

 

So here's what you're working with, plus the 7 they need to add:

 

C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong

CIF: Devers, Chavis, Dalbec, Potts

MIF: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Chatham, Arauz, Peraza

OF: Benintendi, Martinez, Wilson, Verdugo, Rosario

UT: Lin, Munoz

SP: Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Weber, Hart, Perez, Godley, Pivetta, Groome, Houck, Mata, Seabold

RP: Barnes, Walden, Brasier, Brewer, Taylor, Hernandez, Aybar, Brice, Springs, Valdez, Stock, Triggs, Leyer

Swing: Mazza, Hall, Covey, Kickham

 

So need at least 8 DFA or non-tenders. Seems clear most is coming from that stack o' pitching. So I'll guess cuts from the following list: Peraza (non-tender), Hart, Springs, Hall, Kickham, Mazza, Triggs, Covey, Walden. Could see one of Munoz or Lin gone although Munoz has an option.

 

All that said, my guess is that trades might work some of this out. And they're going to need to add a starting CF whether it's JBJ, Duran, or someone else; potentially a bench OF if they're not comfortable having Lin fill that role; at least one SP and at least one RP.

 

There is going to be a TON of churn this offseason, likely in the hopes that guys clear and stay, like Gonsalves and Shawaryn recently.

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-midseason-farm-systems-rankings?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

Sox system ranked 25th in newest MLB Pipeline Rankings. Seems about right.

[moonslav59]

So here's what you're working with, plus the 7 they need to add:

 

C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong

CIF: Devers, Chavis, Dalbec, Potts

MIF: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Chatham, Arauz, Peraza

OF: Benintendi, Martinez, Wilson, Verdugo, Rosario

UT: Lin, Munoz

SP: Rodriguez, Sale, Eovaldi, Weber, Hart, Perez, Godley, Pivetta, Groome, Houck, Mata, Seabold

RP: Barnes, Walden, Brasier, Brewer, Taylor, Hernandez, Aybar, Brice, Springs, Valdez, Stock, Triggs, Leyer

Swing: Mazza, Hall, Covey, Kickham

 

We certainly don't have a roster crunch. (I highlighted, in red, those I wouldn't cry if DFA'd or traded for scraps...not even counting Eovaldi.

 

We will certainly add FA's and pieces via trades, and then there is Rule 5 additions. Here's that list to choose from (You have some listed already):

 

Christopher Acosta

Eduard Bazardo

Garrett Benge

Gary Calvo

Pedro Castellanos

Kutter Crawford

Ricardo Cubillan

Chad De La Guerra

Jerry Downs

Jose Espada

Rio Gomez

Jay Groome

Hunter Haworth

Tanner Houck

Matt Kent

Jose Larez

Adam Lau

Dominic LoBrutto

Everlouis Lozada

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Alan Marrero

Joan Martinez

Bryan Mata

Tate Matheny

Alexander Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Brett Netzer

Tanner Nishioka

Emerson Ortiz

Michael Osinski

Yorvin Pantoja

Isaac Pinales

Antonio Police

Hudson Potts

Bobby Poyner

Roniel Raudes

Austin Rei

Denyi Reyes

Jeremy Rivera

Jeisson Rosario

Jagger Rusconi

Yasel Santana

Zach Schellinger

Alex Scherff

Nick Sciortino

Connor Seabold

Mike Shawaryn

Kervin Suarez

Jake Thompson

Josh Tobias

Connor Wong

 

Minor League FAs, unless added to 40 man:

 

Stetson Allie

Christina Arroyo

Roldani Baldwin

Jett Bandy

Seth Blair

Rusney Castillo

Juan Centeno

Enmanuel De Jesus

Jhonathan Diaz

Raynel Espinal

Yoel Espinal

Stephen Gonsalves

Trevor Hildenberger

Ryder Jones

Tommy Joseph

Kevin Lenik

Nick Longhi

Jonathan Lucroy

Daniel McGrath

Joey Meneses

Johan Mieses

Josh Ockimey

Jhonny Pereda

Cesar Puello

Andrew Schwaab

Caleb Simpson

Kevin Steen

Cole Sturgeon

Domingo Tapia

Konner Wade

Tom Windle

[mvp 78]

Why is Jerry Downs in huge font?

[moonslav59]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-midseason-farm-systems-rankings?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

Sox system ranked 25th in newest MLB Pipeline Rankings. Seems about right.

 

I had hoped with the trades made, we'd be a little higher, but this shows just how hard it is to build a strong farm while winning so much and spending over the limits.

[mvp 78]

I had hoped with the trades made, we'd be a little higher, but this shows just how hard it is to build a strong farm while winning so much and spending over the limits.

 

Also hard to move up when there have been no MiLB games. Nothing to really judge the players on.

[moonslav59]

Also hard to move up when there have been no MiLB games. Nothing to really judge the players on.

 

True, but we added some known commodities in Jeter, Wong and others.