2020 Trade Deadline

[Bellhorn04]

You guys are cancelled.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Sox start 2021 with Dalbec and Houck in the minors, they’ve either gone full nutty on the FA and trade market or are making a serious play to augment service times

[moonslav59]

If the Sox start 2021 with Dalbec and Houck in the minors, they’ve either gone full nutty on the FA and trade market or are making a serious play to augment service times

 

"Nutty" might mean more quantity (like smaller 1-2 year deals) than quality.

 

This could be our opening day 26 man roster:

 

SP1________

SP2 Perez

SP3 Eovaldi

SP4 ERod

SP5 _____

SP6 Pivetta/Seabold

 

RP1 ______

RP2 ______

RP3 Barnes

RP4 D Hern

RP5 Taylor

RP6 Valdez

RP7 Brasier

 

C Vazquez, Plawecki

1B ______, Chavis

2B ______, Arroyo/ Munoz

3B Devers

SS Bogey

LF Beni

CF ____, Lin

RF Verdugo

DH JD

 

That's signing just 3 everyday players to bridge to 2022.

 

BTW, I think Dalbec & Houck make the opening day roster,but I can see one or both being given some time in AAA.

 

[mvp 78]

If the Sox start 2021 with Dalbec and Houck in the minors, they’ve either gone full nutty on the FA and trade market or are making a serious play to augment service times

 

I think signing one 1b in FA would keep Dalbec in AAA for the time being. I could even see them keeping him in AAA to refine his approach (not that I agree with that). However, there's no excuse for Houck to be in AAA. Even if they went crazy with signing SPers, there's still a role for Houck as a #6 or long man.

[notin]

I think signing one 1b in FA would keep Dalbec in AAA for the time being. I could even see them keeping him in AAA to refine his approach (not that I agree with that). However, there's no excuse for Houck to be in AAA. Even if they went crazy with signing SPers, there's still a role for Houck as a #6 or long man.

 

If Houck is the #6 guy, wouldn't he start in the minors waiting to be one of the top 5?

[mvp 78]

If Houck is the #6 guy, wouldn't he start in the minors waiting to be one of the top 5?

 

With how bullpen use has trended, it makes more sense to have your #6 in the pen. There's enough innings to go around where Houck wouldn't need to be stretched out if someone got hurt.

[moonslav59]

I think signing one 1b in FA would keep Dalbec in AAA for the time being. I could even see them keeping him in AAA to refine his approach (not that I agree with that). However, there's no excuse for Houck to be in AAA. Even if they went crazy with signing SPers, there's still a role for Houck as a #6 or long man.

 

Would you have said this 10 days ago?

 

Does such a small sample size really decide issues like this, definitively?

[mvp 78]

Would you have said this 10 days ago?

 

Does such a small sample size really decide issues like this, definitively?

 

I hadn't seen Houck pitch since Spring Training. He looked like he had a shot to make the 2020 rotation then. Now that he's been given a shot and has succeeded, we surely should minimize it and say "well, he's not necessarily part of the plans for 2021!"

[notin]

I hadn't seen Houck pitch since Spring Training. He looked like he had a shot to make the 2020 rotation then. Now that he's been given a shot and has succeeded, we surely should minimize it and say "well, he's not necessarily part of the plans for 2021!"

 

Given the number of arms they need, he is absolutely part of the plans barring 1) a catastrophic finish to this season or 2) an injury.

 

If Houck opens the season in the very weak bullpen, it frees up that much more budget space for other additions...

[moonslav59]

I hadn't seen Houck pitch since Spring Training. He looked like he had a shot to make the 2020 rotation then. Now that he's been given a shot and has succeeded, we surely should minimize it and say "well, he's not necessarily part of the plans for 2021!"

 

I think he makes the opening day roster, because we have like 7 gaping holes in a 13 man staff.

 

That being said, I don't think 2 game sample sizes decide much in MLB.

[Nick]

I think he makes the opening day roster, because we have like 7 gaping holes in a 13 man staff.

 

That being said, I don't think 2 game sample sizes decide much in MLB.

 

I agree on small sample size....but better than getting hammered or walking every other batter as some of our past 'top prospects' have done. And doing it against Yankees is very nice.

[mvp 78]

Given the number of arms they need, he is absolutely part of the plans barring 1) a catastrophic finish to this season or 2) an injury.

 

If Houck opens the season in the very weak bullpen, it frees up that much more budget space for other additions...

 

They need to spend a lot of money and save wherever they can. That most likely means filling in with guys like Chavis/Dalbec/Houck/Munoz/Arroyo.

[mvp 78]

I think he makes the opening day roster, because we have like 7 gaping holes in a 13 man staff.

 

That being said, I don't think 2 game sample sizes decide much in MLB.

 

I think it makes it very likely that he gets a spot in the rotation next year. If they had 5 starters already penciled in, he's probably in AAA. Right now, the only guy you can count on is Perez (ERod out due to COVID?, Sale out due to TJS, Eovaldi career health struggles).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think it makes it very likely that he gets a spot in the rotation next year. If they had 5 starters already penciled in, he's probably in AAA. Right now, the only guy you can count on is Perez (ERod out due to COVID?, Sale out due to TJS, Eovaldi career health struggles).

 

I agree with this, and don't think they'll acquire enough new starting pitchers with the intent of bumping Houck out of the rotation. But I could see having back-ups ready in case he falters and needs to work out of the pen as he refines his arsenal.

[notin]

They need to spend a lot of money and save wherever they can. That most likely means filling in with guys like Chavis/Dalbec/Houck/Munoz/Arroyo.

 

I think Dalbec and Houck are very likely, even if Houck is in middle/long relief role.

 

Chavis has shown himself to be nothing more than a role player and weakside platoon player. Not that there is no value in that, and he handles that role well, but I don't think he is in line for 600 PA. I think he has a bench role locked up if he is not traded.

 

It would be nice if Arroyo and/or Munoz could step in and take over 2B full time. But I would not count on it. I think either one of them can handle a utility INF role, but if the other one is not viewed as the 2B starter, there may be no room on the 25 man roster for him...

[mvp 78]

I think Dalbec and Houck are very likely, even if Houck is in middle/long relief role.

 

Chavis has shown himself to be nothing more than a role player and weakside platoon player. Not that there is no value in that, and he handles that role well, but I don't think he is in line for 600 PA. I think he has a bench role locked up if he is not traded.

 

It would be nice if Arroyo and/or Munoz could step in and take over 2B full time. But I would not count on it. I think either one of them can handle a utility INF role, but if the other one is not viewed as the 2B starter, there may be no room on the 25 man roster for him...

 

Chavis is definitely a platoon/bench role for me. I'd just rather pay him minimal than grabbing a FA. I don't expect the other guys to necessarily be fulltime either. Maybe Munoz and Arroyo play hot potato with 2B. I think Arroyo takes Arauz' roster spot. I think Munoz is just a backup OF.

 

They still need to figure out who gets CF.

 

2B by committee?

[mvp 78]

I agree with this, and don't think they'll acquire enough new starting pitchers with the intent of bumping Houck out of the rotation. But I could see having back-ups ready in case he falters and needs to work out of the pen as he refines his arsenal.

 

Bloom will definitely grab a bunch of AAAA back-ups. We saw that in how he built this year's pen. Will the results be similar?

[notin]

Chavis is definitely a platoon/bench role for me. I'd just rather pay him minimal than grabbing a FA. I don't expect the other guys to necessarily be fulltime either. Maybe Munoz and Arroyo play hot potato with 2B. I think Arroyo takes Arauz' roster spot. I think Munoz is just a backup OF.

 

They still need to figure out who gets CF.

 

2B by committee?

 

I figure on a 4 man bench. If Plawecki and Chavis take two spots, that leaves just two more for a utility INF capable of playing SS (unlike Chavis) and an OF. Munoz, Arroyo and Lin are in the running, possibly for one spot. Lin has the upper has the upper hand with the most OF experience, but Munoz has some corner OF exp. as well. But they might actually want a true outfielder who can play CF in an emergency.

 

Now they might give 2B to one of the, to asve money for other holes. But it is not a given and not necessarily a good idea.

 

Now if they deal Chavis, maybe the bench is Arroyo, Munoz and Lin along with Plawecki. But I have my doubts...

[notin]

Bloom will definitely grab a bunch of AAAA back-ups. We saw that in how he built this year's pen. Will the results be similar?

 

I'm hoping he adds at least two experienced arms to the bullpen...

[moonslav59]

If Bloom chooses to go quantity over quality, we may have the ability to keep some prospects in the minors a little longer. Bloom seems to be good at finding lower paid players that perform better than expected. I'm not againts letting Bloom do his thing. With a 40 man roster that has 15-20 players that are "bubble types," I could see us signing 7-10 players that have a good chance of making the 26 man roster, and maybe a half dozen good minor league signings.

 

My philosophy is usually more towards quality over quantity, but with our roster depth so weak, this may be the time to add a lot of players. I'd still like to see us acquire a better-than-decent player or two this winter that would help us beyond 2021, and it's possible we do both.

 

If we decide to go more towards quality, it makes sense to determine what positions are the weakest while looking at what we have already that can possible fill those needs at an adequate or better-than-the-other guys filling in slots are. Here's how I view the slots we have open and who can fill-in or win the slots, next year:

 

Assuming Perez & Eovaldi are penciled into the rotation and maybe one from ERod and Sale fill another....

(Not in order of biggest need)

SP4: ______ (Pivetta)

SP5: Pivetta/Houk ______

SP6+: Seabold/Mata/Ward ______

RP1: _______ (Barnes)

RP2: _______ (DHern)

RP5: _______ (Valdez)

RP6: _______ (Brasier)

CF: ________ (Duran/Wilson/Lin)

2B: ________ (Arroyo/Chavis/Munoz/Lin/Arauz/Chatham/Downs)

1B: ________ (Dalbec, Chavis)

4th OF:______ (Duran/Wilsonm/Lin)

 

To me, the worst filli-ns we have are pitching and OF. I think we may put off signings at 2B and 1B until the summer or next winter, if nobody wins the job by then.

 

We sign 2 SP'ers and maybe some good minor league depth SP'ers

We sign 3-4 RP'ers

We sign a CF'er and 4th OF'er (maybe one that can play 1B or 2B, too)

 

That's 7-9 minimum that make the 26 man roster. (Sale starts on the IL.)

SP1 _____

SP2 Perez

SP3 Eovaldi

SP4 ERod

SP5 _____

SP6 Houck/Pivetta (Sale)

 

Closer ______

RP2 ______

RP3 Barnes

RP4 DHern

RP5 Taylor

RP6 ______

RP7 ______/Brasier

 

C Vazquez/Plawecki

1B Dalbec/Chavis

2B Arroyo/Munoz

3B Devers

SS Bogaerts

LF: Benintendi

CF: _______, _______

RF: Verdugo

DH: Martinez

 

[notin]

SP1 _____

SP2 Perez

SP3 Pivetta

SP4 ERod

SP5 _____

SP6: Seabold

 

Closer Eovaldi

RP2 ______

RP3 Barnes

RP4 DHern

RP5 Taylor

RP6 ______

RP7 ______/Brasier

 

C Vazquez/Plawecki

1B Dalbec/Chavis

2B Arroyo/Munoz

3B Devers

SS Bogaerts

LF: Benintendi

CF: _______, _______

RF: Verdugo

DH: Martinez

 

 

How about this?

[moonslav59]

How about this?

 

Could work.

 

$17M is a lot to spend on a closer, but if it can keep him healthy, fine with me.

 

I might want a 1 and 3 starter or 2 and 3, not a 1 and 5 starter.

[notin]

Could work.

 

$17M is a lot to spend on a closer, but if it can keep him healthy, fine with me.

 

I might want a 1 and 3 starter or 2 and 3, not a 1 and 5 starter.

 

 

I edited as quickly as possible paying no attention to the position of the starters...

[oldtimer]

How about this?

I can't see leaving Houck off the list of starting pitchers after two very encouraging performances and another start to come.

I would also add Valdez to the hopefuls for relief pitcher.

Benintendi's end of 2019 and his short 2020 were trending down. Having him in the lineup could compromise the 2021 season. I would look for a replacement

For CF, JBJ is showing an improved hitting skill and I would at least give him an option to return under a 2 year max team friendly contract. If not, look for a replacement (within or without)

I think JDM is with us for 2 more years. If his skills have diminished as it seems then he could be a boat anchor holding back team competitiveness going forward.

 

We have Mata, Downs and Duran as top 10 prospects. One would hope they would be considered.

 

I assume that the current 40 man roster would be gutted of all those who haven't performed and hopefully we get something in return that can at least strengthen our prospect list, to go along with our young draftees.

[mvp 78]

I figure on a 4 man bench. If Plawecki and Chavis take two spots, that leaves just two more for a utility INF capable of playing SS (unlike Chavis) and an OF. Munoz, Arroyo and Lin are in the running, possibly for one spot. Lin has the upper has the upper hand with the most OF experience, but Munoz has some corner OF exp. as well. But they might actually want a true outfielder who can play CF in an emergency.

 

Now they might give 2B to one of the, to asve money for other holes. But it is not a given and not necessarily a good idea.

 

Now if they deal Chavis, maybe the bench is Arroyo, Munoz and Lin along with Plawecki. But I have my doubts...

 

Lin has been horrible this season. I think he gets nontendered in the offseason.

[mvp 78]

I'm hoping he adds at least two experienced arms to the bullpen...

 

2 sounds about right to me. Lots of AAAA filler too.

[notin]

Lin has been horrible this season. I think he gets nontendered in the offseason.

 

I would consider that a very likely possibility, even if they bring him back on an MiLB contract. I only mention him as a possibility because he has the singular advantage of already being here...

[kenmeister]

I can't see leaving Houck off the list of starting pitchers after two very encouraging performances and another start to come.

 

Best case scenario for the rotation by the end of 2021, barring a free agent signing, I think is:

 

1. E-Rod (I really hope that he's able to come back)

2. Sale (returns midway through 2021 right?)

3. Perez

4. Eovaldi

5. Houck

 

If Pivetta can force his way into the group, fine, but I'm not sold on the guy.

 

I do hope we make at least one significant starting pitching pick up in the offseason, because the worst case scenario is E-Rod is gone, Sale never gets back to what he was, Eovaldi spends 2/3 the season on the IL, the league figures out Houck and he never makes it, etc. Reality will likely be somewhere in between those two extremes.

[notin]

Best case scenario for the rotation by the end of 2021, barring a free agent signing, I think is:

 

1. E-Rod (I really hope that he's able to come back)

2. Sale (returns midway through 2021 right?)

3. Perez

4. Eovaldi

5. Houck

 

If Pivetta can force his way into the group, fine, but I'm not sold on the guy.

 

I do hope we make at least one significant starting pitching pick up in the offseason, because the worst case scenario is E-Rod is gone, Sale never gets back to what he was, Eovaldi spends 2/3 the season on the IL, the league figures out Houck and he never makes it, etc. Reality will likely be somewhere in between those two extremes.

 

 

Pivetta does have the advantage over Houck in that he has pitched as many as 164 IP at the MLB level in a season. Houck has never pitched more than 119 IP in a season, and that was in High A ball. Houck only has 119 carer IP above A ball. Expecting him to pitch 130-150 IP in MLB seems like a major stretch in 2021...

[mvp 78]

I would consider that a very likely possibility, even if they bring him back on an MiLB contract. I only mention him as a possibility because he has the singular advantage of already being here...

 

Munoz and Arroyo are already here too.