A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[moonslav59]

Can we finally lay the "Blake never got a real chance" argument to rest?

 

Swihart DFA'd by Rangers.

 

(BTW, we gave Swihart way more chances than he ever earned.)

[a700hitter]

Can we finally lay the "Blake never got a real chance" argument to rest?

 

Swihart DFA'd by Rangers.

 

(BTW, we gave Swihart way more chances than he ever earned.)

The organization was very high on him. They were happy to hand him the starting job 2 years ago. It was all his, and he spit the bit.

[moonslav59]

The organization was very high on him. They were happy to hand him the starting job 2 years ago. It was all his, and he spit the bit.

 

Then, after failing, they gave him a shot at another position.

 

More spit.

[harmony]

Yeah! Wil Myers! Said no one ever.

 

Hopefully Quantrill has his dad’s rubber arm...

FWIW In 2020 29-year-old Wil Myers has posted a higher fWAR than any Red Sox hitter (going into Tuesday's games):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/wil-myers/10047/stats?position=1B/OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

... with an OPS+ of 151.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/myerswi01.shtml

[Sox75]

what is this strange season, and why do I feel jealous of the Pirates?

 

 

kidding.... not kidding.

[Kimmi]

^^^

 

I think Henry wants to spend money (wisely) and grow the farm system. It can be done. That's how we got the 2007 and 2018 WS.

 

Henry will spend money like he always does. What I don't see happening is Price type deals or going after the all star type players, aka shiny new toys.

 

Look for those second tier type players who are almost just as good, who can be acquired for a lot less. Some people like to call them dumpster dives. I like to call them value players.

[Kimmi]

We all hope hang’em Chaim knows what he doing, but realistically it will take a bit longer to figure it out.

Another consideration, does Henry have the patience to do this right, or is he going to panic like he did with cherrington,

 

I don't think Henry has a lot of patience when it comes to rebuilding teams. He wants results every year. His hope with hiring Bloom is that Bloom can fulfill both the short term and long term goals. Henry will not be patient through a couple of last place finishes, whether it's Bloom's fault or not.

[Kimmi]

The organization was very high on him. They were happy to hand him the starting job 2 years ago. It was all his, and he spit the bit.

 

The Sox did a very poor job in the way they handled Swihart.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think Henry has a lot of patience when it comes to rebuilding teams. He wants results every year. His hope with hiring Bloom is that Bloom can fulfill both the short term and long term goals. Henry will not be patient through a couple of last place finishes, whether it's Bloom's fault or not.

 

This has always been my prediction, and why it seems inevitable he'll blow money on lesser "names" (and talent) than Mookie. Bottom line is the bottom line, after all, and Henry has tickets to sell... unless he has a team to sell.

[oldtimer]

Henry will spend money like he always does. What I don't see happening is Price type deals or going after the all star type players, aka shiny new toys.

 

Look for those second tier type players who are almost just as good, who can be acquired for a lot less. Some people like to call them dumpster dives. I like to call them value players.

 

I'd say the Rays are an example of Bloom's ability to find value and do it on a budget. The Price deal was the opposite. We got one or two years of an aging star for a large 7 year contract. Cashman has been some good trades for the Yankees, but has also made some awful ones by throwing money and long term contracts to players who don't appear to have much value.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'd say the Rays are an example of Bloom's ability to find value and do it on a budget. The Price deal was the opposite. We got one or two years of an aging star for a large 7 year contract. Cashman has been some good trades for the Yankees, but has also made some awful ones by throwing money and long term contracts to players who don't appear to have much value.

 

Cashman's only two recent "mistakes" were the Ellsbury deal and the Stanton deal, and the Ellsbury deal was a Boras to Steiny/Levine deal. The Ellsbury deal actually was the impetus for Cashman to get more power. Listen, the cost to get Stanton was the reason we got him. The only issue is he started to get hurt. After his first season with us, his deal looked like a steal. He is still young, so I would wait to decide on his deal until he has a full ST

[moonslav59]

The Sox did a very poor job in the way they handled Swihart.

 

I totally disagree.

 

They bent over backwards to give him multiple chances to prove he belonged- way more than his performance ever showed he deserved.

 

He ran out of options and was forced to the 25 man roster when not good enough to earn enough playing time to prove himself, but he kept failing at every opportunity he got, except that very first one as our #1 catcher before maybe he was really ready..

 

Edited August 26, 2020 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I totally disagree.

 

They bent over backwards to give him multiple chances to prove he belonged- way more than his performance ever showed he deserved.

 

He ran out of options and was forced to the 25 man roster when not good enough to earn enough playing time to prove himself, but he kept failing at every opportunity he got, except that very first one as our #1 catcher before maybe he was really ready..

 

 

The whole Swihart debacle -- a guy who could've been traded for Cole Hamels -- is what makes me wince at the early Connor Wong scouting reports: a promising minor league hitter who needs work as a catcher, but is versatile enough to move around the diamond...

 

I guess it's not all bad. There have been success stories for guys who started out as catchers and switched positions: Dale Murphy won back-to-back MVPs, Craig Biggio made the Hall of Fame, Harper grew his hair really long.

[mvp 78]

The whole Swihart debacle -- a guy who could've been traded for Cole Hamels -- is what makes me wince at the early Connor Wong scouting reports: a promising minor league hitter who needs work as a catcher, but is versatile enough to move around the diamond...

 

I guess it's not all bad. There have been success stories for guys who started out as catchers and switched positions: Dale Murphy won back-to-back MVPs, Craig Biggio made the Hall of Fame, Harper grew his hair really long.

 

Swihart was much more highly regarded than Wong. I don't think people are expecting anything more than a UTIL guy out of him.

 

In terms of converting catchers, don't go looking for video of Carlton Fisk playing LF in 1986 (

). Also of note, today is the day that I learned Hawk Harrelson traded 23 year old Bobby Bonilla for Jose DeLeon. LOL

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Swihart was much more highly regarded than Wong. I don't think people are expecting anything more than a UTIL guy out of him.

 

In terms of converting catchers, don't go looking for video of Carlton Fisk playing LF in 1986 (

). Also of note, today is the day that I learned Hawk Harrelson traded 23 year old Bobby Bonilla for Jose DeLeon. LOL

 

Thanks for reminding me of our three acquired Dodgers prospects: a good outfielder, a hit-first "infielder" with average arm and speed, and a future utility guy.

 

What did I expect for 13 years of a Hall of Famer... pitching prospects? It's not like we have the worst pitching staff in history yet -- there's still a whole weekend before September.

[mvp 78]

Thanks for reminding me of our three acquired Dodgers prospects: a good outfielder, a hit-first "infielder" with average arm and speed, and a future utility guy.

 

What did I expect for 13 years of a Hall of Famer... pitching prospects? It's not like we have the worst pitching staff in history yet -- there's still a whole weekend before September.

 

But they took Price's contract off our hands!!!! Henry can't pay that kind of money!!!!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But they took Price's contract off our hands!!!! Henry can't pay that kind of money!!!!!

 

... to Jon Lester!

[Kimmi]

This has always been my prediction, and why it seems inevitable he'll blow money on lesser "names" (and talent) than Mookie. Bottom line is the bottom line, after all, and Henry has tickets to sell... unless he has a team to sell.

 

When you say 'blow money', do you mean spend unwisely? If you do, I disagree. Not all of his free agent signings will work out, but I think he will spend very wisely. (Wisely meaning that I will approve but most others will not. LOL)

[Kimmi]

I'd say the Rays are an example of Bloom's ability to find value and do it on a budget. The Price deal was the opposite. We got one or two years of an aging star for a large 7 year contract. Cashman has been some good trades for the Yankees, but has also made some awful ones by throwing money and long term contracts to players who don't appear to have much value.

 

We don't have a lot to judge Bloom by yet, in terms of what he has done with the Red Sox. I am banking on his track record with the Rays.

[Kimmi]

Thanks for reminding me of our three acquired Dodgers prospects: a good outfielder, a hit-first "infielder" with average arm and speed, and a future utility guy.

 

What did I expect for 13 years of a Hall of Famer... pitching prospects? It's not like we have the worst pitching staff in history yet -- there's still a whole weekend before September.

 

I read a tweet or something saying how Mookie is on pace to have a 13 bWAR season over 162 games.

 

At the same time, Verdugo is on a 6.5 bWAR pace. That is nothing to sneeze at.

 

Take into account that Mookie's 13 WAR is at a cost of $27 mil. Verdugo's 6.5 WAR is at a cost of $650K or something thereabouts. This is the type of value that I'm talking about. We can fill so many other needs with the money saved from not signing Mookie.

[Thunder]

I read a tweet or something saying how Mookie is on pace to have a 13 bWAR season over 162 games.

 

At the same time, Verdugo is on a 6.5 bWAR pace. That is nothing to sneeze at.

 

Take into account that Mookie's 13 WAR is at a cost of $27 mil. Verdugo's 6.5 WAR is at a cost of $650K or something thereabouts. This is the type of value that I'm talking about. We can fill so many other needs with the money saved from not signing Mookie.

 

Hmm, that creates a new stat that I would be interested in following: WAR/$1M

[jad]

I read a tweet or something saying how Mookie is on pace to have a 13 bWAR season over 162 games.

 

At the same time, Verdugo is on a 6.5 bWAR pace. That is nothing to sneeze at.

 

Take into account that Mookie's 13 WAR is at a cost of $27 mil. Verdugo's 6.5 WAR is at a cost of $650K or something thereabouts. This is the type of value that I'm talking about. We can fill so many other needs with the money saved from not signing Mookie.

 

As I've often said, a three-year-old Hyundai at $500 is a better value than a 2018 Porsche at 75K. But which one wins the race?

[Larry Cook]

Verdugo was definitely a win for hang’em Chaim.

 

Now can he turn Moreland, Martinez, Perez and others into wins as well.

 

Jury out on the Hembree/workman trade.

[Kimmi]

As I've often said, a three-year-old Hyundai at $500 is a better value than a 2018 Porsche at 75K. But which one wins the race?

 

Sure, Mookie is going to win over Verdugo if you're talking about the 2 players going head to head. But you can't look at their values in a vacuum. Verdugo being a much better value allows the team to strengthen in other areas and is better for the team on the whole.

 

Cute dog, BTW.

[Kimmi]

Verdugo was definitely a win for hang’em Chaim.

 

Now can he turn Moreland, Martinez, Perez and others into wins as well.

 

Jury out on the Hembree/workman trade.

 

FTR, I am against trading Moreland, Martinez, and Perez. It might happen, and I'll understand if it does, but I would rather keep those players.

[Bellhorn04]

FTR, I am against trading Moreland, Martinez, and Perez. It might happen, and I'll understand if it does, but I would rather keep those players.

 

I'm with you.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When you say 'blow money', do you mean spend unwisely? If you do, I disagree. Not all of his free agent signings will work out, but I think he will spend very wisely. (Wisely meaning that I will approve but most others will not. LOL)

 

And yet, spending unwisely -- as well as being unwise in their approach to Mookie from his very first year of arbitration -- is what got us here in 2020, when the not-a-mandate goal of resetting prevented Boston from fielding an MLB caliber club. My point about Betts and winning is that you have to pay for quality results. Everyone talks about building around a core, and what better place to start than a future Hall of Famer about to enter his prime. This is exactly what LA, a big market club, chose to do. Good luck finding a better investment, especially a homegrown face of the franchise: drafted, signed and developed in your own system.

 

Obviously, there will be a lot more options for Henry to spend his Mookie savings on. But it's unpredictable just what quality will be available and when. Three guys like Martin Perez don't equal one Max Scherzer (one David Price didn't, either). I just think that after a few losing seasons, despite deliberate, meticulous rebuilding, the Sox will still wind up signing a star free agent for something close to what it would've taken to keep Betts in the first place. And he won't be as good. There have just been too many impulsive Crawford-Rusney-Lackey-Panda point-of-purchase buys at the check-out line.

[jad]

And yet, spending unwisely -- as well as being unwise in their approach to Mookie from his very first year of arbitration -- is what got us here in 2020, when the not-a-mandate goal of resetting prevented Boston from fielding an MLB caliber club. My point about Betts and winning is that you have to pay for quality results. Everyone talks about building around a core, and what better place to start than a future Hall of Famer about to enter his prime. This is exactly what LA, a big market club, chose to do. Good luck finding a better investment, especially a homegrown face of the franchise: drafted, signed and developed in your own system.

 

Obviously, there will be a lot more options for Henry to spend his Mookie savings on. But it's unpredictable just what quality will be available and when. Three guys like Martin Perez don't equal one Max Scherzer (one David Price didn't, either). I just think that after a few losing seasons, despite deliberate, meticulous rebuilding, the Sox will still wind up signing a star free agent for something close to what it would've taken to keep Betts in the first place. And he won't be as good. There have just been too many impulsive Crawford-Rusney-Lackey-Panda point-of-purchase buys at the check-out line.

 

Yup. Agree totally. (And if we are EXTREMELY lucky, after two or three crappy seasons, the RS will be back, or nearly back, to where they were before J. Henry's bank account became more important than the quality of the team.)

[Bellhorn04]

Hmm, that creates a new stat that I would be interested in following: WAR/$1M

 

FanGraphs' dollar values use that approach.

[jad]

Sure, Mookie is going to win over Verdugo if you're talking about the 2 players going head to head. But you can't look at their values in a vacuum. Verdugo being a much better value allows the team to strengthen in other areas and is better for the team on the whole.

 

Cute dog, BTW.

 

That's Darwin, who is my best buddy ... except for the fact that, of course, he doesn't give a crap about me.