A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[notin]

If he had a starter profile, they make that deal regardless of the health concerns. The fact that he's most likely limited to the pen (where yearly performance is highly volatile), maybe makes a prospect with the upside of everyday MLB 2b a little more valuable?

 

Yes, they need pitching today, but I don't think they made that trade for what the team would look like this year or next.

 

 

Ok for the 50,000,000 time, relief pitchers are not inconsistent. Rather, inconsistent pitchers are relievers. The mere act of putting a pitcher on the bullpen doesn’t lessen his ability.

 

If Graterol was talented enough to start but simply not durable, he could easily fill a much needed relief role very well, and MLB is increasingly becoming a bullpen game...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If he had a starter profile, they make that deal regardless of the health concerns. The fact that he's most likely limited to the pen (where yearly performance is highly volatile), maybe makes a prospect with the upside of everyday MLB 2b a little more valuable?

 

Yes, they need pitching today, but I don't think they made that trade for what the team would look like this year or next.

 

This was the key point in rejecting Brudstar; the Sox said the medicals didn't project for him to be a starter (which must entail innings per outing and durability). Bloom -- despite all the Tampa rep. at openers -- is thankfully focused on the value of dependable arms that can record the most outs. The Rays did sign Charlie Morton, after all.

 

The whole opener idea seems to smack of desperation, as clubs have to hope that many pitchers will win assigned match-ups -- instead of one starter with a repertoire for enough longevity to at least get through lineups twice through the batting order. Granted, the former is how bullpens are built and used, but very few relievers shine night after night without getting burned out. Remember how good Barnes was at the beginning of 2019 and then how unreliable he became?

[notin]

This was the key point in rejecting Brudstar; the Sox said the medicals didn't project for him to be a starter (which must entail innings per outing and durability). Bloom -- despite all the Tampa rep. at openers -- is thankfully focused on the value of dependable arms that can record the most outs. The Rays did sign Charlie Morton, after all.

 

The whole opener idea seems to smack of desperation, as clubs have to hope that many pitchers will win assigned match-ups -- instead of one starter with a repertoire for enough longevity to at least get through lineups twice through the batting order. Granted, the former is how bullpens are built and used, but very few relievers shine night after night without getting burned out. Remember how good Barnes was at the beginning of 2019 and then how unreliable he became?

 

Really it comes down to one’s personal beliefs on building a staff. Personally, I liked the idea of getting the highly regarded high powered arm for the staff. Bloom obviously preferred getting someone capable of filling larger roles, perhaps to let the smaller roles be filled with trickle down effect.

 

Probably worth pointing out Bloom has been part of assembling some of the best economically feasible staffs in recent years and my track record for building pitching staffs is somewhat less. Heck I think I’m 11th out of 11 in team ERA in my fantasy league. f***ing Mike Foltyniewicz...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Really it comes down to one’s personal beliefs on building a staff. Personally, I liked the idea of getting the highly regarded high powered arm for the staff. Bloom obviously preferred getting someone capable of filling larger roles, perhaps to let the smaller roles be filled with trickle down effect.

 

Probably worth pointing out Bloom has been part of assembling some of the best economically feasible staffs in recent years and my track record for building pitching staffs is somewhat less. Heck I think I’m 11th out of 11 in team ERA in my fantasy league. f***ing Mike Foltyniewicz...

 

Say the Sox reset and over the winter Henry orders Bloom to blow all Mookie's money on the three best free agent starters: Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray -- $300 million in Covid times should be more than enough, right? Will those moves even be enough to make Boston a contender again? (we won't get much out of Sale in '21, and who knows yet about ERod's heart and Eovaldi's elbow).

 

This is what we're up against. Just hoping our openers won't all be castoffs from teams with worse records...

[moonslav59]

Say the Sox reset and over the winter Henry orders Bloom to blow all Mookie's money on the three best free agent starters: Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray -- $300 million in Covid times should be more than enough, right? Will those moves even be enough to make Boston a contender again? (we won't get much out of Sale in '21, and who knows yet about ERod's heart and Eovaldi's elbow).

 

That would end the "cliff." I might take another year, assuming most goes right, to get back to the top.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That would end the "cliff." I might take another year, assuming most goes right, to get back to the top.

 

Average won-loss records for 162-game season (per bbref): Bauer 13-11, Stroman 12-11, Ray 11-11... ERod 14-8, Sale 14-9, Eovaldi 9-11.

[dgalehouse]

This team won 118 games just two years ago . Now , there are a few pieces missing from that team , but they can't be as bad as they have looked so far . There is still talent on the team .They won last night largely due to the Met's rookie manager's blunders . I would expect better play and better results as the season progresses. The expanded playoffs should provide some glimmer of hope .

[mvp 78]

Say the Sox reset and over the winter Henry orders Bloom to blow all Mookie's money on the three best free agent starters: Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray -- $300 million in Covid times should be more than enough, right? Will those moves even be enough to make Boston a contender again? (we won't get much out of Sale in '21, and who knows yet about ERod's heart and Eovaldi's elbow).

 

This is what we're up against. Just hoping our openers won't all be castoffs from teams with worse records...

 

Yes, those moves would make them a contender right away.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, those moves would make them a contender right away.

 

It would also be horribly foolish as the likelihood of all 3 surviving or thriving without injury or ineffectiveness is low

[moonslav59]

It would also be horribly foolish as the likelihood of all 3 surviving or thriving without injury or ineffectiveness is low

 

Better chance avoiding a major injury issue with 3 x $100M than 1 x $300M.

 

If one gets hurt, we still have 2.

 

If 2 get hurt, even one is better than none.

 

If 3 get hurt, bye bye Bloom.

[mvp 78]

It would also be horribly foolish as the likelihood of all 3 surviving or thriving without injury or ineffectiveness is low

 

Possibly. Was just answering his question.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It would also be horribly foolish as the likelihood of all 3 surviving or thriving without injury or ineffectiveness is low

 

I'm not advocating signing three big money free agents in one winter, but an owner with the finances to make it happen might.

 

Would you re-do 2009 and not sign CC, AJ and Tex?

[jad]

I don't understand the math (actually, the arithmetic) of this seeming pipe-dream.

 

Mookie's 370 over 13 years is about 30/year. You're saying each of these three guys would sign a 13 year contract at 10/year? (Maybe they would; I hardly know who these players are). But that's the argument, correct?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't understand the math (actually, the arithmetic) of this seeming pipe-dream.

 

Mookie's 370 over 13 years is about 30/year. You're saying each of these three guys would sign a 13 year contract at 10/year? (Maybe they would; I hardly know who these players are). But that's the argument, correct?

 

It's not my dream, just hypotheticals of who Bloom may want or need to invest in to get the team back to contention. He can state his goal is to build long-term sustainability, but you can bet his bosses will want quicker results, especially if the Sox tank and ticket sales don't rise back to pre-pandemic numbers.

 

I don't know what those three pitchers are seeking for contracts, but I was just estimating a going-rate of about 5 years for 100 Mil apiece. None of them will ever be Cole or Sale pre-TJ, but at least they're established big league starters... which, I think we all agree, is the biggest area of need for the Sox to get back to respectability.

[notin]

It's not my dream, just hypotheticals of who Bloom may want or need to invest in to get the team back to contention. He can state his goal is to build long-term sustainability, but you can bet his bosses will want quicker results, especially if the Sox tank and ticket sales don't rise back to pre-pandemic numbers.

 

I don't know what those three pitchers are seeking for contracts, but I was just estimating a going-rate of about 5 years for 100 Mil apiece. None of them will ever be Cole or Sale pre-TJ, but at least they're established big league starters... which, I think we all agree, is the biggest area of need for the Sox to get back to respectability.

 

I think you undersell Bauer, who is more than just an “established major league starter”. He’s extremely good. Now will he stick to his “one year deals only” philosophy once he becomes a free agent? That’s a huge factor.

 

And Bauer would likely disagree with your comparison to Cole...

[moonslav59]

I don't understand the math (actually, the arithmetic) of this seeming pipe-dream.

 

Mookie's 370 over 13 years is about 30/year. You're saying each of these three guys would sign a 13 year contract at 10/year? (Maybe they would; I hardly know who these players are). But that's the argument, correct?

 

I think he was saying we'd spend the $300M on 3 guys- not on a yearly rate equivalent. Maybe the 3 might sign for $100M/4 or $100M/5, and if you use the $370 number, it could be 3 guys at $123M/4 or $123M/5 each. Now, that might not be enough, either, and all 3 will likely want more than 4-5 year deals, especially in uncertain economic times.

[moonslav59]

I'm not advocating signing three big money free agents in one winter, but an owner with the finances to make it happen might.

 

Would you re-do 2009 and not sign CC, AJ and Tex?

 

How about 2014?

 

$22M x 7 Tanaka

$22M x 7 Ellsbury

$17M x 5 McCann

$16M x 1 Kuroda

$15M x 3 Beltran

 

I think the Yanks signed something like 4 out of the 13 FAs who declined the QOs, that year.

 

[jad]

I think he was saying we'd spend the $300M on 3 guys- not on a yearly rate equivalent. Maybe the 3 might sign for $100M/4 or $100M/5, and if you use the $370 number, it could be 3 guys at $123M/4 or $123M/5 each. Now, that might not be enough, either, and all 3 will likely want more than 4-5 year deals, especially in uncertain economic times.

 

Yeah, I think so too. And that math would then be accurate IF Mookie had signed for 370 for 4 or 5 years. (But he didn't, and the speculative calculation leaves out 8 years of Betts services).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think you undersell Bauer, who is more than just an “established major league starter”. He’s extremely good. Now will he stick to his “one year deals only” philosophy once he becomes a free agent? That’s a huge factor.

 

And Bauer would likely disagree with your comparison to Cole...

 

I'm sure he'd tell us through multiple platforms of social media. Would he welcome the challenge of Boston, where knowledgeable fans, columnists and color commentators might hold him accountable for his actions and words? At least we know he'd love the Green Monster, an easy throw from the mound when he gets mad.

[notin]

I'm sure he'd tell us through multiple platforms of social media. Would he welcome the challenge of Boston, where knowledgeable fans, columnists and color commentators might hold him accountable for his actions and words? At least we know he'd love the Green Monster, an easy throw from the mound when he gets mad.

 

Why wouldn’t he?

 

Bauer has pitched postseason and never seemingly cared about the ramifications of his tweets.

[moonslav59]

The 7-inning doubleheader rule is now official. There’s no word yet on the proposed 30 man roster extension.

[notin]

The 7-inning doubleheader rule is now official. There’s no word yet on the proposed 30 man roster extension.

 

Great.7 inning double headers. EXtra innings with a man on second.

 

These new rules suck. (Although if there only to get us through pandemic times, I'm ok with that.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Great.7 inning double headers. EXtra innings with a man on second.

 

These new rules suck. (Although if there only to get us through pandemic times, I'm ok with that.)

 

We need a velcro batting glove clock.

[moonslav59]

Why can't we ever get players like this?

 

Check This Out

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Why can't we ever get players like this?

 

 

Check This Out

 

Why can't we keep players like this?

[moonslav59]

Why can't we keep players like this?

 

Lucky throw.

[Bellhorn04]

It would be a pleasant surprise if Chavis turns out to be a decent hitter instead of Will Middlebrooks II as many of us have feared.

[oldtimer]

Just think, we could have signed Kimbrel to a 4 or 5 year contract. The Cubbies won him for $16 mii a year and his velocity is down and he is getting clobbered. Sometimes we get lucky.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

It would be a pleasant surprise if Chavis turns out to be a decent hitter instead of Will Middlebrooks II as many of us have feared.

 

I remember when Will hit 3 dingers in a game against, I believe, Toronto, and almost hit a 4th.

[vegasbob]

Maybe it's not too early to try and build the 2021 version of the RedSox. The holes in the boat are large (starting and relief pitching) including is JDM part of it, can Beni recover from his funk, can Dever's gain some consistency, does Bloom look to sign Verdugo to a multi-year , where is Chavis, do the take the $3M option on Moreland ? Aside from Bogaerts and Vazquez very few positions are clearly defined going forward.

Can Erod and Sale both fully recover ? Will Pedey earn his final contract year of $12 million (OK bad joke) ? Peraza would want $3M+.

 

When you need 4 or 5 starting pitchers to enter camp, and 3 or 4 reliable relievers to fill late innings , this off season will be interesting but probably not highly rewarding. Covid will still be a factor throughout 2021 throwing a wet blanket over it all again.