A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[moonslav59]

Small Sample Size

 

Some are not small, and lots of small ones combined make a significant sample size for both catchers.

[moonslav59]

Also, Leon's magic really seemed to wear off last year.

 

Nobody had magic, last year.

 

However, some had less magic than others:

 

Porcello

4.44/.709 Leon 93 IP (Close to his career 4.36 ERA)

6.37/.885 Vaz 76 IP

13.50/1.338 Swihart 5 IP

 

Sale

3.79/.622 Leon 116 IP (Not bad)

6.68/.956 Vaz 31 IP

 

ERod & Price pretty much only threw to Vaz. Leon and Swihart had less than 10 IP with each. Vaz did much better with both.

 

I'm not sad to see Leon go, and my post wasn't meant to be about him. It was in response to the post about Vaz "calling a good game." I don't see it.

 

[mvp 78]

Some are not small, and lots of small ones combined make a significant sample size for both catchers.

 

None of the sizes are significant enough IMO.

[moonslav59]

None of the sizes are significant enough IMO.

 

When a lot of small to moderate sample sizes all point the same direction, it is significant.

 

The Price sample sizes are both pretty large: 204 IP to 360 IP. Porcello's 576 to 211 is, too.

 

I admit the Buccholz (both over 130 IP) is not really that much, and Vaz's innings with Sale (84) is small, but when you combine it with Pom and Wright, and they all show very significant differentials all heavily in the same direction, there is true meaning to the numbers.

 

ERod is the only one with pretty much no difference but with Vaz having a slightly better CERA.

[moonslav59]

Sox Leaders in ST'ing

OPS (ABs)

1.362 Wong (10)

1.286 Castillo (21)

1.186 JBJ (22)

1.132 Plawecki (14)

1.121 Moreland (9)

1.077 Devers (13)

1.018 JD (20)

.988 Duran (19)

.945 Beni (15)

.944 Lin (17)

.905 Ockimey (21)

.818 Chavis (20)

Other notables:

.775 Dalbec (22)

.757 Pillar (22)

.721 Wilson (19)

.701 Arauz (21) Rule 5

.571 Peraza (21)

.540 Downs (17)

.435 Vaz (15)

.349 Chatham (14)

.209 Marco (17)

.000 Bogey (7)

 

[moonslav59]

Pitching Leaders in ST'ing

WHIP (IP)

0.53 Brice 5.2

0.63 Eovaldi 8.0

0.67 Velazquez 3.0

0.86 ERod 7.0

0.88 Brewer 5.2

0.95 Johnson 6.1

1.00 Brasier 3.0

1.00 Weber 5.0

1.13 Walden 2.2

1.25 Reyes 4.0/ Taylor 4.0

1.50 Osich 4.2/Workman 2.2

 

Other notables:

1.67 Mata 3.0

1.71 Barnes 2.2/Shawaryn 2.1

2.00 D Hern 1.0

2.05 Houck 6.1

2.63 Hembree 2.2/M Peres 2.2

3.00 Poyner 2.0

3.33 Mazza3.1

 

[mvp 78]

https://www.mlb.com/news/five-questions-for-al-east-teams

 

Red Sox

 

1) Is Sale OK?

This immediately became the most urgent and terrifying question for the Red Sox on Tuesday after Chris Sale left the mound with elbow soreness. After undergoing an MRI and getting multiple expert opinions on his elbow, it’s still unclear when he will pitch again in a competitive game. Could be April, could be next April.

 

2) Can they make people forget about Betts?

Alex Verdugo is quite a piece to receive for one year of Mookie Betts, even if he’s missing the beginning of the year. He’s not Mookie Betts, and he never will be, but he’s here longer and could establish himself this year. There’s still a lot of offense on this team. There would be more with Betts, obviously. But this team has a 1/2/3/4 of Andrew Benintendi/Rafael Devers/Xander Bogaerts/J.D. Martinez. They are going to score lots of runs.

 

3) Is there any sort of plan for the bullpen?

It is widely forgotten now, but the Red Sox, as good as they were in 2018, weren’t considered an overwhelming favorite to win the World Series that year because of their bullpen. It turned out that Joe Kelly and others stepped up and Nathan Eovaldi and others became their best selves, but no one saw that coming, or should have. The bullpen looks wobbly again this year, though with all the other offseason goings-on with the Red Sox, no one’s focusing intensely on this one. Interim manager Ron Roenicke believes it’s a “team strength.” If that’s true, the Red Sox may be in more trouble than we thought.

 

4) Anybody notice there’s still a ton of young talent here?

Rafael Devers is only 23, but he looked like an MVP contender most of last year; there is massive, massive upside with him. Bogaerts was even better. Benintendi is 25. Michael Chavis burst out of the gate last year. The Red Sox are going to have to figure out how to pay all these guys someday, but the idea that the cupboard suddenly went bare after the Betts trade is quite silly.

 

5) Can everybody keep the faith?

Look, the Red Sox are a good team. They really are! That offense is great, Sale might not end up missing THAT long and, again, the analytics folks think they're as much a Wild Card contender as just about anybody else. But it is one thing to say, "Look, FanGraphs says we're a 50-50 shot for the postseason!" It's another thing to say, "Uh, management just traded away our best player, so you tell me: How much of a chance do they think we have this year?" Most teams in the Red Sox's position expect to add talent before the season. Instead, the Red Sox traded away their best player. It might be the right move in the long term. But 2020 isn't the long term. 2020 is now.

[moonslav59]

This season is toast. Just put Sale under the knife and hope for a speedy return.

 

Deal Workman and others at the deadline.

 

Make deals that only help us in 2021 and beyond- with an emphasis on 2022 and beyond.

 

[jad]

White Sox extend Moncada

 

Brewers extend Yelich

 

Red Sox trade Betts.

 

This season is toast. Just put Sale under the knife and hope for a speedy return.

 

Deal Workman and others at the deadline.

 

Make deals that only help us in 2021 and beyond- with an emphasis on 2022 and beyond.

 

 

I.e., become the Marlins.

[notin]

I.e., become the Marlins.

 

Well we could have kept Betts and watched Sale get injured. Would this team really be better off? Would they be a contender then?

[Noles_1335]

This season is toast. Just put Sale under the knife and hope for a speedy return.

 

Deal Workman and others at the deadline.

 

Make deals that only help us in 2021 and beyond- with an emphasis on 2022 and beyond.

 

 

agree 100% with this bold honesty! Those saying Sale may not be lost.... in the words of Chris Berman " C'mon man" that wicked arm action and how violent that delivery is should tell you this guy was destined for TJ at some point. We should be making any and all moves possible to make this team a real contender in 2021 and beyond.

[vegasbob]

Well we could have kept Betts and watched Sale get injured. Would this team really be better off? Would they be a contender then?

 

Not all would agree, but if the Sox would have dumped Price for 50% of his salary, and no players, just to deal with tax issue, then you can stretch it to say that they got 3 young, upside potential, under club control players ( Verdugo, Downs, Wong) for Mookie . AND if you are truly heartbroken you can choose to pay Mookie $500million for 10 years and get him back, since it's only about the money, right. No issue with this move although one starting pitcher possibility would have been of even more value.

 

Not sure what else ownerhip and Kabloom could do for you in an organization starved for young talent as of 9/30/19. Jury is out still and will be for awhile on Sale, probably through April, after which they will determine he needs more rest or TJS.

[jad]

Well we could have kept Betts and watched Sale get injured. Would this team really be better off? Would they be a contender then?

 

Well, we'll never know for sure. I don't know the numbers, but will the RS get far enough under the cap this year that Castillo might get a look?

[Kimmi]

Well we could have kept Betts and watched Sale get injured. Would this team really be better off? Would they be a contender then?

 

Trading Betts is not what will keep the Sox out of the playoffs.

 

Trading Price, OTOH, is a different story.

[moonslav59]

I.e., become the Marlins.

 

Not even close.

 

 

We will remain a big spending team, even this year.

 

Our rebuild could be hastened by writing off 2020.

 

If we spend over the tax line in 2021, we could be an odd-on playoff team.

 

The Marlins are years away.

[moonslav59]

Trading Betts is not what will keep the Sox out of the playoffs.

 

Trading Price, OTOH, is a different story.

 

Huh?

[notin]

Huh?

 

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

The Sox were one of the best offenses in MLB last year and might have been able to afford to take a hit. Their pitching was middle-of-the-pack and dealing Price pushed them further back...

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com has this as the projected 2021 roster:

 

SP: Sale, Erod, Eovaldi, Perez, Mata/Ward

RP: Barnes, DHern, Houck, Hembree, Taylor, Brasier, Feltman, Mazza/Osich

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Moreland, Chavis

2B: Downs, Peraza (Pedey)

3B: Devers, Dalbec

SS: Bogaerts, Chatham

LF: Beni, Wilson

CF: Duran, Lin

RF: Verdugo

DH: JD

[notin]

Feltman? Shouldn’t the Sox wait until he learns how to get minor leaguer hitters out first?

[a700hitter]

Feltman? Shouldn’t the Sox wait until he learns how to get minor leaguer hitters out first?

He was huge disappointment last season in the minors after a lot of hoopla in Spring Training. He has been a nonentity in camp this Spring.

[oldtimer]

Feltman? Shouldn’t the Sox wait until he learns how to get minor leaguer hitters out first?

 

No need to badmouth any prospect. Hes on a learning curve and still has the tools to be good. Some just take longer. Maybe he makes that improvement in the minors this year.

[notin]

No need to badmouth any prospect. Hes on a learning curve and still has the tools to be good. Some just take longer. Maybe he makes that improvement in the minors this year.

 

He was so supposed to do MLB-ready when he was drafted. He’s been nothing but a disappointment on that front, and it is absolutely worthwhile to question whether or not he is ONE YEAR AWAY, which is what I was responding to.

 

And, actually, it’s ok to badmouth a prospect’s baseball ability. Not like I’m picking on a speech impediment here...

[mvp 78]

He was so supposed to do MLB-ready when he was drafted. He’s been nothing but a disappointment on that front, and it is absolutely worthwhile to question whether or not he is ONE YEAR AWAY, which is what I was responding to.

 

And, actually, it’s ok to badmouth a prospect’s baseball ability. Not like I’m picking on a speech impediment here...

 

No politics here.

[kenmeister]

soxprospects.com has this as the projected 2021 roster:

 

SP: Sale, Erod, Eovaldi, Perez, Mata/Ward

RP: Barnes, DHern, Houck, Hembree, Taylor, Brasier, Feltman, Mazza/Osich

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Moreland, Chavis

2B: Downs, Peraza (Pedey)

3B: Devers, Dalbec

SS: Bogaerts, Chatham

LF: Beni, Wilson

CF: Duran, Lin

RF: Verdugo

DH: JD

 

I love how you've moved onto 2021 already. I really wonder if Sale will be able to contribute even then.

[mvp 78]

I love how you've moved onto 2021 already. I really wonder if Sale will be able to contribute even then.

 

Maybe in August 2021?

[moonslav59]

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

The Sox were one of the best offenses in MLB last year and might have been able to afford to take a hit. Their pitching was middle-of-the-pack and dealing Price pushed them further back...

 

It doesn't look like it helped for 2020, but it didn't hurt more than losing Betts.

 

Let's see how Price does, and how healthy he is going to be.

[moonslav59]

Feltman? Shouldn’t the Sox wait until he learns how to get minor leaguer hitters out first?

 

It's pure speculation, of course, and the names on the list (more than 26, BTW) are just possible slot-fillers.

[mvp 78]

Sox need to run with a lineup of:

 

Beni

Devers

Xander

JD

Puig

Dalbec

Chavis - 2b

Vaz

JBJ

 

Just let them swing for the fences every time and see if they can murder a truckload of balls this year.

[moonslav59]

I love how you've moved onto 2021 already. I really wonder if Sale will be able to contribute even then.

 

Probably not if we hold off surgery for a few more months.

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Betts is not what will keep the Sox out of the playoffs.

 

Trading Price, OTOH, is a different story.

 

But going strictly by projected WAR, isn't losing Betts a bigger hit to the W-L record?

 

This stuff gets confoozing.