A Realistic View at 2020: Part II

[jad]

Once the tickets are sold, they don't have to field a viable product especially if they are selling to the fans that they need to rebuild the farm.

 

The Red Sox NATION has already accepted fire sales. Have you forgotten 2012? 2014?

 

But the tix that matter aren't those sold to 'true fans' or those who care about the farm or a rebuild. Those fans will (like some) either renew their season tix regardless, or (like me) will continue to get their one ticket every ten years or so regardless of what the team does. The tix that matter are those sold to the much-disparaged "Pink Hats", who will go if the team is doing well, but won't if the team sucks. And none of these people say "Wow! The Sox are losing, but think of how well Portland is doing!"

[mvp 78]

But the tix that matter aren't those sold to 'true fans' or those who care about the farm or a rebuild. Those fans will (like some) either renew their season tix regardless, or (like me) will continue to get their one ticket every ten years or so regardless of what the team does. The tix that matter are those sold to the much-disparaged "Pink Hats", who will go if the team is doing well, but won't if the team sucks. And none of these people say "Wow! The Sox are losing, but think of how well Portland is doing!"

 

I think you're forgetting about the third group of ticket purchasers that will never go away: big business monkeys who use tickets to shmooze clients. I bet pink hats are much more likely to go to a Red Sox game no matter what than a true fan who is pissed that the ownership gave up on this season and traded Mookie.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Adrian Gonzalez 2011: 6.2 fWAR

JD Martinez 2019: 3.2 fWAR

 

Beckett 2011: 3.8 fWAR

JBJ 2019: 1.4 fWAR

 

Beckett was a postseason hero and a frontline starting pitcher. AGon was being lauded as the 2nd best offensive weapon and a great defensive wiz at 1b. People on here were freaking out prior to the AGon trade with the Padres when they thought Theo botched it. We may not think of him fondly now, but he was of more importance to that team than JD is to this one.

 

I totally disagree. JD was the absolute difference maker in a first place team missing a middle-of-the-order threat in '17 to a first place team going all the way in '18. Some fans and media even thought he was more valuable than Betts. JD also led the entire '18 postseason in RBI, and helped other hitters improve by his presence in the lineup and in BP. His WAR might not be as high because he didn't play defense, but as for his importance in Boston compared to AGon's -- I don't think it's even close, and I doubt you'd find few Sox fans anywhere that would choose Gonzalez.

 

AGon was being lauded more before he came to Boston. I was all in on getting him (who knew what Rizzo would become), but Gonzalez never hit with the same power he had in the NL and was overrated on D. I remember my wife -- a casual fan who had no choice to see him whenever she walked into a room with a TV on -- always making fun of him as a slow load at first base, whilst I tried to tell her he had a Gold Glove rep.

 

Beckett was a postseason hero half a decade before he moaned about days off and betrayed Francona's trust. He was cooked after 2011. At least Bradley was a postseason hero the season before last. JBJ may never start an All-Star game again, but I doubt he'll ever quit trying.

Edited February 27, 2020 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[mvp 78]

AGon’s slugging in 2011 was the second highest of his career. How is that not hitting like the NL?

[Kimmi]

Part of the problem is you rarely see a staff where all five starters average five or six innings. Certainly not like the old days

 

Exactly. Even the most durable pitchers barely average over 6 innings per game.

[Kimmi]

It looks like using the Will Meyers contract takeover to obtain nearly ready pitching prospects will fail, so another avenue is needed. Perhaps they are looking at the cheating scandal resolution before trying to get a 5th starter through trade.

 

The latest speculation is that the trade is not likely to happen, but as we all know, that type of speculation changes daily. I'm guessing that SD and Boston are looking to somehow involve a 3rd team. Who knows?

 

I do have faith in Bloom to get us a 5th starter one way or another.

[Kimmi]

Ruh Roh!

 

@OverTheMonster

Usually you can manipulate the rotation a bunch in the beginning of the year because of off days, but the Red Sox start off with eight games in a row this year.

 

Better than that boneheaded road schedule we started off with last year.

[oldtimer]

The latest speculation is that the trade is not likely to happen, but as we all know, that type of speculation changes daily. I'm guessing that SD and Boston are looking to somehow involve a 3rd team. Who knows?

 

I do have faith in Bloom to get us a 5th starter one way or another.

 

You are correct in that trade rumors change from day to day. what doesn't change is the need for the Sox to get another ML ready starter. So the incentive is still there for the Padres to get rid of a part of the Meyers contract and for the Sox to buy a young pitcher by taking on some of Meyers contract. I'm sure its not the only avenue that Chaim is pursuing.

[mvp 78]

The latest speculation is that the trade is not likely to happen, but as we all know, that type of speculation changes daily. I'm guessing that SD and Boston are looking to somehow involve a 3rd team. Who knows?

 

I do have faith in Bloom to get us a 5th starter one way or another.

 

Rumor is the Pads didn’t want to give up the pitching. If that’s true, Sox are better off walking away IMO.

[mvp 78]

Better than that boneheaded road schedule we started off with last year.

 

8 straight games means 2 rainouts!

[notin]

Rumor is the Pads didn’t want to give up the pitching. If that’s true, Sox are better off walking away IMO.

 

Exactly.

 

Myers would have been the new Mike Lansing contract we suffered through as he played sporadically. But the arm or two the Sox also got had the potential to make it worthwhile.

 

Let them pay Myers...

[harmony]

Exactly.

 

Myers would have been the new Mike Lansing contract we suffered through as he played sporadically. But the arm or two the Sox also got had the potential to make it worthwhile.

 

Let them pay Myers...

On the other hand, Wil Myers could be the Mike Lowell who in 2007 joined the Red Sox with his underwater contract.

 

Or not.

[mvp 78]

On the other hand, Wil Myers could be the Mike Lowell who in 2007 joined the Red Sox with his underwater contract.

 

Or not.

 

What’s with this “or not” garbage posting?

 

Anyway, Lowell was coming off one bad year. He wasn’t the train wreck Myers turned his career into.

[moonslav59]

What’s with this “or not” garbage posting?

 

Anyway, Lowell was coming off one bad year. He wasn’t the train wreck Myers turned his career into.

 

Myers was never great. He's never been over .797. He hasn't really declined all that much.

Here's some different breakdowns of his career:

 

.759 first 4 years (1663 PAs)

.768 last 3 years (1482 PAs)

 

.734 first 3 years (987 PAs)

.795 middle 2 year (1325 PAs)

.749 last 2 years (833 PAs)

 

Here's what Myers is a plus:

vs LHPs

.877 in 2019 (104 PAs)

.805 in 2018 (141 PAs)

.790 in 2017 (172 PAs)

.814 in 2016 (163 PAs)

 

Yes, Mike Lowell had just one bad year, but it was worse than any season Myers has had in a long time.

.658 in 2005.

 

Maybe Bloom know something about Myers and thinks he can get him to hit more like .795 than .749, but to me, it's all about his production vs LHPs and our ability to add a young player.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

AGon’s slugging in 2011 was the second highest of his career. How is that not hitting like the NL?

 

We can make stats say whatever we want: in Gonzalez first 5 full-time seasons -- and last 5 in the NL before playing for Boston -- he averaged 32 HRs. In two years for the Red Sox he averaged 21 HRs.

[mvp 78]

We can make stats say whatever we want: in Gonzalez first 5 full-time seasons -- and last 5 in the NL before playing for Boston -- he averaged 32 HRs. In two years for the Red Sox he averaged 21 HRs.

 

27 in 2011 and a short season after that which you included because you are making a horrible point.

[moonslav59]

We can make stats say whatever we want: in Gonzalez first 5 full-time seasons -- and last 5 in the NL before playing for Boston -- he averaged 32 HRs. In two years for the Red Sox he averaged 21 HRs.

 

So, HRs is your only criteria?

 

(I happen to agree with you that AGon was a little bit of a letdown in Boston. We traded him just in time. He declined sharply after 3 decent seasons in LA --.803 to .830).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So, HRs is your only criteria?

 

(I happen to agree with you that AGon was a little bit of a letdown in Boston. We traded him just in time. He declined sharply after 3 decent seasons in LA --.803 to .830).

 

No criteria, just answering one stat with another. My "horrible" point was that there were several reasons why Adrian Gonzalez was not more important to Boston than JD Martinez. The main one was the JD's team won a ring in his first year -- and a majority (I would've thought before today, nearly all) of observers said at the time that he was a huge factor, on and off the field. Meanwhile, AGon's Sox in his first year suffered one of the worst chokes in MLB history. He was good, but no one ever said he was a leader... and there were a few claims that he didn't quite fit in. I'm not hating on the guy, or loving JD, just posting what I assumed was common knowledge in recent Red Sox history.

[Elktonnick]

No criteria, just answering one stat with another. My "horrible" point was that there were several reasons why Adrian Gonzalez was not more important to Boston than JD Martinez. The main one was the JD's team won a ring in his first year -- and a majority (I would've thought before today, nearly all) of observers said at the time that he was a huge factor, on and off the field. Meanwhile, AGon's Sox in his first year suffered one of the worst chokes in MLB history. He was good, but no one ever said he was a leader... and there were a few claims that he didn't quite fit in. I'm not hating on the guy, or loving JD, just posting what I assumed was common knowledge in recent Red Sox history.

A-Gon had a reputation as a clubhouse lawyer. Not that it is important but I don't think he endeared himself to Boston's sports media. I vaguely recall Bob Ryan being particularly harsh on him. I think Ryan called A-Gon clubhouse poison.

[jad]

No criteria, just answering one stat with another. My "horrible" point was that there were several reasons why Adrian Gonzalez was not more important to Boston than JD Martinez. The main one was the JD's team won a ring in his first year -- and a majority (I would've thought before today, nearly all) of observers said at the time that he was a huge factor, on and off the field. Meanwhile, AGon's Sox in his first year suffered one of the worst chokes in MLB history. He was good, but no one ever said he was a leader... and there were a few claims that he didn't quite fit in. I'm not hating on the guy, or loving JD, just posting what I assumed was common knowledge in recent Red Sox history.

 

I've heard that phrase a lot, and almost every time I've heard it (although not here by you, because you show no signs of that!), there's been a racist edge to it. Maybe I've been a RS fan for too long, going back to pre-Pumpsie Green years, but when I hear writers and fans make this claim, I remember it's being used of, say, Reggie Smith, other black players. I was always surprised that AGon would be so disliked: I loved his play, and when you look at his numbers, he hit exactly in Boston as he did elsewhere. Like the equally reviled JDDrew, (a different player obviously), the RS got EXACTLY the player they would have expected (although Drew was never accused of "not fitting in.")

[notin]

A-Gon had a reputation as a clubhouse lawyer. Not that it is important but I don't think he endeared himself to Boston's sports media. I vaguely recall Bob Ryan being particularly harsh on him. I think Ryan called A-Gon clubhouse poison.

 

Ryan would call anyone a clubhouse poison as long as no one else did. He appeared to take pride in his contrarian viewpoints...

[Bellhorn04]

I've heard that phrase a lot, and almost every time I've heard it (although not here by you, because you show no signs of that!), there's been a racist edge to it. Maybe I've been a RS fan for too long, going back to pre-Pumpsie Green years, but when I hear writers and fans make this claim, I remember it's being used of, say, Reggie Smith, other black players. I was always surprised that AGon would be so disliked: I loved his play, and when you look at his numbers, he hit exactly in Boston as he did elsewhere. Like the equally reviled JDDrew, (a different player obviously), the RS got EXACTLY the player they would have expected (although Drew was never accused of "not fitting in.")

 

I don't think it was a racial thing with A-Gon. He didn't hit as many home runs as expected, he was a member of a 'dream team' that collapsed horrifically in his only full season with the team, and he also had a knack for saying the wrong thing.

 

The tag that everyone remembers about 2011 is 'chicken and beer', and that had nothing to do with A-Gon, it was supposedly led by Beckett, Lackey and Lester-kind of a redneck thing, you might say.

 

Beckett and Lackey in particular were guys who at various times were not well liked at all by Sox fans-in spite of their key roles in championships.

[notin]

27 in 2011 and a short season after that which you included because you are making a horrible point.

 

I cut him a bit of slack for being a surprisingly good right fielder once you factor in that his foot speed was matched by a glacier.

 

But he was a letdown. And really not sure why the Sox went after him besides the “Big Name Star Power”. The Sox had an excellent 1b in Youkilis and an excellent 3b in Beltre. They should have paid Adrian B. and gone with the status quo...

[moonslav59]

No criteria, just answering one stat with another. My "horrible" point was that there were several reasons why Adrian Gonzalez was not more important to Boston than JD Martinez. The main one was the JD's team won a ring in his first year -- and a majority (I would've thought before today, nearly all) of observers said at the time that he was a huge factor, on and off the field. Meanwhile, AGon's Sox in his first year suffered one of the worst chokes in MLB history. He was good, but no one ever said he was a leader... and there were a few claims that he didn't quite fit in. I'm not hating on the guy, or loving JD, just posting what I assumed was common knowledge in recent Red Sox history.

 

I remember looking at AGon's spray charts with SD and thinking he'd hit 50 HRs with Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

A-Gon also had shoulder surgery right before his first season with us.

[notin]

I remember looking at AGon's spray charts with SD and thinking he'd hit 50 HRs with Boston.

 

I remember looking at Adrian Beltre’s actual numbers IN Boston.

 

HRs: 28. Doubles: 49. Left Fielders Sidelined with Broken Ribs: 2. OPS: .919

[notin]

Beckett and Lackey in particular were guys who at various times were not well liked at all by Sox fans-in spite of their key roles in championships.

 

Lackey was DESPISED by fans the first two seasons. And for good reason - he was horrible. He was so bad, I actually breathed a sigh of relief when it was announced he would miss a year for Tommy John surgery.

 

He came back and was very good. But he certainly proved a lot about timing. His contract was the same number of years (5) as JD Drew’s and both had 2 good seasons in Boston. But Lackey left loved and Drew left hated by many fans.

[Bellhorn04]

I remember looking at Adrian Beltre’s actual numbers IN Boston.

 

HRs: 28. Doubles: 49. Left Fielders Sidelined with Broken Ribs: 2. OPS: .919

 

I think Theo out-clevered himself a bit with Beltre. The contract he signed Beltre on was clever, and the comp picks he got for losing Beltre were clever.

[notin]

I think Theo out-clevered himself a bit with Beltre. The contract he signed Beltre on was clever, and the comp picks he got for losing Beltre were clever.

 

With the unfair advantage of complete 100% hindsight, which was the better set of (non-)moves? Get Adrian Gonzalez and draft Jackie Bradley? Or re-sign Adrian Beltre and keep Anthony Rizzo?

[Slasher9]

all things being equal...we had a parade with JDM. we did not have a parade with AGon.