Opening Day lineup.... and roster spots

[moonslav59]

Better than Papi?

 

Yes, Papi was pretty much a dead pull hitter, even when they put the shift on him. He hit 24% of balls to LF over his career. The last 4 years were under 21.4%.

 

Spray charts...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/david-ortiz/745/spray-charts?position=DH&type=battedball

[jung]

Better than Papi?

 

Not better than Ortiz in the overall....far from it. Just best at using the Wall from the Left Side. Nobody knew more about using the wall from the Left Side than Mo Vaughn. In some ways he was our version of the Yankee's Voit from the Right side playing in Yankee Stadium. If Voit hangs around the pinstripes for very long he might end up putting up numbers that are just silly for the hitter that he really represents. I have yet to see a HR he has hit against us in Yankee Stadium that did not have me shaking my head and headed for the liquor cabinet. Just to be clear though, Mo Vaughn was a better hitter than Voit can ever hope to be.

[harmony]

The Red Sox reportedly are interested in free agent center fielder Kevin Pillar:

 

 

The Sox reportedly could cut Jackie Bradley Jr. within the first 16 days of Spring Training and owe him only one month's pay of less than $2 million.

[notin]

The Red Sox reportedly are interested in free agent center fielder Kevin Pillar:

 

 

The Sox reportedly could cut Jackie Bradley Jr. within the first 16 days of Spring Training and owe him only one month's pay of less than $2 million.

 

The article assumes Pillar will be in a backup role...

[Kimmi]

Even with the downgrade of Betts to Verdugo, I still think the offense will be among the best in the league. The pitching on the other had... Who the hell knows.

 

Red Sox Stats

 

@redsoxstats

·

14m

 

As camps open here is where Fangraphs thinks the talent is across MLB

 

 

 

 

Our offense will be fine. Our current outlook for 2020 is not as bad as some seem to think.

[moonslav59]

Interesting.

[Kimmi]

Interesting.

 

We are tied for the 4th best WAR in the AL, meaning we are definitely a wildcard contender, at least. Bloom isn't finished yet, and I'm guessing that there will be in season moves as well.

 

Look out Yankees!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not better than Ortiz in the overall....far from it. Just best at using the Wall from the Left Side. Nobody knew more about using the wall from the Left Side than Mo Vaughn. In some ways he was our version of the Yankee's Voit from the Right side playing in Yankee Stadium. If Voit hangs around the pinstripes for very long he might end up putting up numbers that are just silly for the hitter that he really represents. I have yet to see a HR he has hit against us in Yankee Stadium that did not have me shaking my head and headed for the liquor cabinet. Just to be clear though, Mo Vaughn was a better hitter than Voit can ever hope to be.

 

I don't have stats in front of me, but I never saw a lefty pop one off the wall like Boggs with two strikes. I always thought it intentional and he looked like he could do it whenever he wanted to. Boggs wasn't a punch hitter, but a precision line-drive hitter by design who could've hit with more loft (like they said he did in BP), but chose 50 more hits per year than 20 more HRs. I'll bet he had more doubles per year than Vaughn, though.

[notin]

We are tied for the 4th best WAR in the AL, meaning we are definitely a wildcard contender, at least. Bloom isn't finished yet, and I'm guessing that there will be in season moves as well.

 

Look out Yankees!

 

But.... arms!!!

[jung]

I don't have stats in front of me, but I never saw a lefty pop one off the wall like Boggs with two strikes. I always thought it intentional and he looked like he could do it whenever he wanted to. Boggs wasn't a punch hitter, but a precision line-drive hitter by design who could've hit with more loft (like they said he did in BP), but chose 50 more hits per year than 20 more HRs. I'll bet he had more doubles per year than Vaughn, though.

 

With Boston for 11 years, Boggs, 422 doubles and 85 HR's. With Boston for 8 years, Vaughn, 199 doubles and 230 HR's. Total bases for Boggs over 11 years in Boston, 2869. Total bases for Vaughn over 8 years, 2074.

 

Two different kinds of hitters. Vaughn went over the wall. Boggs went off the wall. I don't think Boggs could have hit enough HR's to move out of the punch and judy category. He slapped many of his hits because he could. Placed a number of them exactly where he wanted to because he could. If he thought he could have hit for power I think he would have done that.

Edited February 12, 2020 by jung

[moonslav59]

We are tied for the 4th best WAR in the AL, meaning we are definitely a wildcard contender, at least. Bloom isn't finished yet, and I'm guessing that there will be in season moves as well.

 

Look out Yankees!

 

It's nice that Cleveland has dealt away a lot of their best talent.

 

Houston did not add much, although they have some nice young talent maturing.

 

MN, TB and Oak should be good, but they are not "crazy good," and anything can happen in this great game.

 

One key aspect to our chances is what we end up doing with the newly created budget space. I'm not sure we'll see a whole lot of moves before opening day, and maybe waiting for the deadline might work out better, anyways as not too many quality players are on the trading block, right now,

[mvp 78]

We are tied for the 4th best WAR in the AL, meaning we are definitely a wildcard contender, at least. Bloom isn't finished yet, and I'm guessing that there will be in season moves as well.

 

Look out Yankees!

 

Rotation looks shaky, but I’ll hold out hope.

[moonslav59]

Rotation looks shaky, but I’ll hold out hope.

 

Assuming we want to improve the rotation without hurting the future by trading wanted/needed prospects...

 

A. Who do we trade?

 

B. Next question, who can we trade for that is decent and won't cost us a lot in return?

 

My answers:

A. Chavis or Dalbec? One year control player(s) like JBJ and or Workman?

B. A pitcher that costs too much for his team but will not put us over the tax line. (Basically, the higher salary reduces the needed return.)

 

 

[notin]

Assuming we want to improve the rotation without hurting the future by trading wanted/needed prospects...

 

A. Who do we trade?

 

B. Next question, who can we trade for that is decent and won't cost us a lot in return?

 

My answers:

A. Chavis or Dalbec? One year control player(s) like JBJ and or Workman?

B. A pitcher that costs too much for his team but will not put us over the tax line. (Basically, the higher salary reduces the needed return.)

 

 

 

A. Jeter Downs. Come on! We CANNOT keep a guy named Jeter.

B. Jeter Downs for Jakob Junis. Jeter Downs for Jeffrey Means. Jeter Downs to Miami (and the original Jeter) for Caleb Smith. Jeter Downs for Jameson Taillon (and a very long physical)

[moonslav59]

A. Jeter Downs. Come on! We CANNOT keep a guy named Jeter.

B. Jeter Downs for Jakob Junis. Jeter Downs for Jeffrey Means. Jeter Downs to Miami (and the original Jeter) for Caleb Smith. Jeter Downs for Jameson Taillon (and a very long physical)

 

Downs may outperform Verdugo.

 

I'm keeping him.

 

Besides, our 2B depth chart sucks.

[notin]

Downs may outperform Verdugo.

 

I'm keeping him.

 

Besides, our 2B depth chart sucks.

 

We already know he was Plan B. I think the plan all along when they decided against Graterol was to get another pitcher (where LA balked?) or get the best prospect they can to flip for one.

 

Downs might be a stud. But so far, he has only played A ball. I just cannot get too excited about players in A ball to the point where I say they will be better than actual Major Leaguers. After all, there is a better chance he never gets past Pawtucket, statistically speaking.

 

The Sox 2B depth chart in the minors might suck, but how exactly does their pitching look in the majors?

Edited February 12, 2020 by notin

[mvp 78]

Downs has played in AA.

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/tulsa-drillers-even-tl-finals-on-trifecta-by-jeter-downs/c-310678692

[SCM33]

Rotation looks shaky, but I’ll hold out hope.

 

Let me fix.

 

Rotation looks s*****, but I'll hold out hope.

[notin]

Downs has played in AA.

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/tulsa-drillers-even-tl-finals-on-trifecta-by-jeter-downs/c-310678692

 

12 games. He’s had exposure, AA is really the most important level IMO. Let him have a full season there...

[mvp 78]

12 games. He’s had exposure, AA is really the most important level IMO. Let him have a full season there...

 

Did Devers and Beni need a full season in AA?

[notin]

Did Devers and Beni need a full season in AA?

 

Did they need 13 games?

[mvp 78]

Did they need 13 games?

 

Did they need a full season like you suggested?

[illinoisredsox]

Did they need a full season like you suggested?

 

Actually, the answer to notin’s question is yes, they did need 13 games in AA (plus 50 or 60 more).

[notin]

Did they need a full season like you suggested?

 

I think it helps. Both Devers and Benintendi were also much higher ranked prospects than Downs. I think a full season (or a significant chunk of one) would be very beneficial...

[mvp 78]

I think it helps. Both Devers and Benintendi were also much higher ranked prospects than Downs. I think a full season (or a significant chunk of one) would be very beneficial...

 

We'll see. I'm holding out hope that he mashes in the first few months like Devers did and they can just plug him in.

 

Of course this is selfish since I just want to see a good product this year.

[notin]

We'll see. I'm holding out hope that he mashes in the first few months like Devers did and they can just plug him in.

 

Of course this is selfish since I just want to see a good product this year.

 

Even Devers spent a couple weeks in Pawtucket.

 

I don't think Devers is the standard every 20yo prospect should beheld up to.

 

And really, I think Jeter Downs is likely trade bait. Not because his first name is Jeter (do I need to adopt a sarcasm emoji, too?), but because he was clearly Plan B after the first attempt to get an actual starting pitcher failed. So the next step, when you cannot get another top pitching prospect, is to get a player tradable for a young controllable pitcher. And that guy might be Downs...

[mvp 78]

Even Devers spent a couple weeks in Pawtucket.

 

I don't think Devers is the standard every 20yo prospect should beheld up to.

 

And really, I think Jeter Downs is likely trade bait. Not because his first name is Jeter (do I need to adopt a sarcasm emoji, too?), but because he was clearly Plan B after the first attempt to get an actual starting pitcher failed. So the next step, when you cannot get another top pitching prospect, is to get a player tradable for a young controllable pitcher. And that guy might be Downs...

 

If you want to trade him, you better hope he has a torrid start to the season (which is hard to do in Portland depending on weather).

 

I'm fine with moving any player they have. Starting pitching depth is embarrassing for this org right now. Aside from Mata and Ward, are there any other pitchers that could potentially ever contribute as starters? Does Groome even make the majors?

[notin]

If you want to trade him, you better hope he has a torrid start to the season (which is hard to do in Portland depending on weather).

 

I'm fine with moving any player they have. Starting pitching depth is embarrassing for this org right now. Aside from Mata and Ward, are there any other pitchers that could potentially ever contribute as starters? Does Groome even make the majors?

 

Does Groome even pitch in the minors? Sightings of him on the mound are less frequent that Bigfoot sightings in the Pacific Northwest.

 

I think the Sox best trade bait is Downs, Dalbec and Duran. And if they plan to use Dalbec in the majors at 1B this year, that means Downs and Duran are the guys. But for who? The Sox will likely have to deal a minor leaguer to get a cost controlled pitcher (or Chavis, which also works for me), but how many prospects and for whom?

[mvp 78]

Does Groome even pitch in the minors? Sightings of him on the mound are less frequent that Bigfoot sightings in the Pacific Northwest.

 

I think the Sox best trade bait is Downs, Dalbec and Duran. And if they plan to use Dalbec in the majors at 1B this year, that means Downs and Duran are the guys. But for who? The Sox will likely have to deal a minor leaguer to get a cost controlled pitcher (or Chavis, which also works for me), but how many prospects and for whom?

 

Is Duran a high enough prospect to bring back a starter even in a package? I'm not really high on him.

 

Seems like we'd be better able to move current major league talent for younger cost controlled players (i.e. the Miller for ERod trade).

[moonslav59]

Is Duran a high enough prospect to bring back a starter even in a package? I'm not really high on him.

 

Seems like we'd be better able to move current major league talent for younger cost controlled players (i.e. the Miller for ERod trade).

 

For what it's worth here are the trade values for Sox players on the website, remember value includes salary and years of control as big factors:

 

(Highlighted in red means I think the number is higher than actual value.)

128 Devers

89 Bogey

48 Verdugo

39 Beni

29 ERod

26 Vaz

22 Casas

22 Downs

20 Dalbec

18 Chavis

12 Mata

12 Barnes

12 Duran

11 D Hernandez

9 Jimenez

6 Lugo, JD, Taylor, Walden

5 Workman, Chatham, Ward

4 Wong, Song, Groome

3 Murphy, Perez, Decker, Houck, Plawecki, Gonzalez

2 Bonaci, Cannon, Howlett, Wilson, Arauz, Flores

1 Lopez, Chacon, Esplin, Feliz, Marcano, Rafaeta, Vaughan, Lin, Bello, Netzer, peraza, Politi, Brannen, Northcut, Zeferjahn, Diaz, Hart, Liu, Aybar, Castellanos, Crawford, Ockimey, Perales, Poyner, Ramirez

0.0 to 0.5 Hall, Reyez, Baldwin, Feltman, Moreland, JBJ, Shawarn and more

 

-9.8 Sale

-14.3 Castillo (his pay)

-24.8 Pedey

-29.0 Eovaldi (owed $41M)