A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[mvp 78]

But you do prefer Logan Allen over Kimbrel?

 

Also, Beeks was better than Eovaldi last year...

 

The Kimbrel trade is the one I struggle with the most especially since DD just threw Allen in there for no reason.

[mvp 78]

I will take the next 3 years of Price at $96mill over the next 3 years of Eovaldi at $51mill.

 

I'll take both of them.

[notin]

I'll take both of them.

 

Eovaldi has one major drawback in that he's never healthy.

 

But you might be the happy one if you want both...

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi has one major drawback in that he's never healthy.

 

But you might be the happy one if you want both...

 

He's due for a healthy one in 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

The Kimbrel trade is the one I struggle with the most especially since DD just threw Allen in there for no reason.

 

The Padres soaked him, no doubt. But by the same token, the Yanks soaked Theo for Chapman.

[harmony]

The Kimbrel trade is the one I struggle with the most especially since DD just threw Allen in there for no reason.

Why would one think Logan Allen was thrown in "for no reason"?

[S5Dewey]

Eovaldi has one major drawback in that he's never healthy.

 

But you might be the happy one if you want both...

 

If we're looking for two pitchers to pitch half a season while the other is injured we could always match up Eovaldi with Clay.

[mvp 78]

Why would one think Logan Allen was thrown in "for no reason"?

 

Because that's what front office sources have leaked (see: Alex Speier). That the trade could have been made without Allen, but he was added on at the last minute.

[mvp 78]

If we're looking for two pitchers to pitch half a season while the other is injured we could always match up Eovaldi with Clay.

 

Not sure Clay can go half a season.

[Bellhorn04]

Because that's what front office sources have leaked (see: Alex Speier). That the trade could have been made without Allen, but he was added on at the last minute.

 

That doesn't make sense. Has to be more to it than that.

[mvp 78]

That doesn't make sense. Has to be more to it than that.

 

That's what has been stated over and over. DD disregarded his scouts based on his own personal feelings for guys. Scouts wanted to keep Allen, DD didn't care about the guy and his need to fill the MLB roster just caused him to put Allen into the trade.

 

Speier stated in his new book that at the end of the negotiations, the Padres asked if they could have Allen too and DD just said fine. Most remaining Sox people believe the deal would have been 100% done without Allen involved.

[Bellhorn04]

That's what has been stated over and over. DD disregarded his scouts based on his own personal feelings for guys. Scouts wanted to keep Allen, DD didn't care about the guy and his need to fill the MLB roster just caused him to put Allen into the trade.

 

Speier stated in his new book that at the end of the negotiations, the Padres asked if they could have Allen too and DD just said fine. Most remaining Sox people believe the deal would have been 100% done without Allen involved.

 

In that case I'm rendered speechless.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm no Dombro fan, but Kimbrel and Price were both needed at the time and ultimately contributed to three firsts and a ring. At the time I was in favor of the Kimbrel deal and against the Price signing; I preferred Jordan Zimmerman (shows how smart I am).

 

I was totally in on Sale, and glad we kept Benintendi over Moncada, partially on the basis that I'd rather have a guy who was a college star as an underclassman than a kid who blew some of his signing bonus on fancy cars with custom hood ornaments of his initials (like any of that matters).

 

I also think the Eovaldi for Beeks trade won the pennant and the World Series.

 

I don't regret that the Sox couldn't add a top arm to their staff this winter -- not just Cole or MadBum; even a Ryu, Wheeler, Ordorizzi could've helped. Because Boston did the right thing investing in starting pitching a year ago. In hindsight, tons of fans are down on both the Sale and Eovaldi signings... but look back at threads at the time and see how few thought it was a bad idea to lock up studs who just won a title.

 

As much of a risk Sale was to injury, there was equal risk that an unsigned Sale would have the usual Sale year in 2019 and command Cole money. Remember, he had finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting the past six years in a row and was coming off a season where only one pitcher in the AL had a higher WAR (Snell). Eovaldi was injury-prone, but bidders had good reason to think he had turned the corner with the workhorse durability displayed in the second half through the postseason.

 

Comebacks from these two guys might surprise fanatics, but I think people in the industry, especially in Beantown, expect bounce-backs and would be surprised if they didn't get at least one...

[notin]

If we're looking for two pitchers to pitch half a season while the other is injured we could always match up Eovaldi with Clay.

 

There you go. As long as they can time their injuries properly...

[mvp 78]

In that case I'm rendered speechless.

 

Speier stated that DD trusted his personal instincts over everything else. It did lead him to being a very successful GM, but it seems like he should have probably dialed it down at least a little bit. Apparently, it wasn't a very great place to work.

 

Side note: Speier's book was written well before DD was let go so it's not just sour grapes. https://www.amazon.com/Homegrown-How-Built-Champion-Ground/dp/0062943553

[harmony]

Speier stated that DD trusted his personal instincts over everything else. It did lead him to being a very successful GM, but it seems like he should have probably dialed it down at least a little bit. Apparently, it wasn't a very great place to work.

 

Side note: Speier's book was written well before DD was let go so it's not just sour grapes. https://www.amazon.com/Homegrown-How-Built-Champion-Ground/dp/0062943553

I'll place a hold on the book at the library.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'll place a hold on the book at the library.

 

It's a good take -- and all six homegrown guys that Boston kept and were on the field for the last out in LA are still here...

[moonslav59]

If you think Price is a hole, I don't know what to tell you. His worst season as a Red Sox was a 1.5 fWAR guy. That's not a hole.

 

A hole is something that needs to be filled in.

 

If we assume 33 starts per starter, here are the holes we needed to fill for Price over the last 3 years:

 

2017: 22 starts needed by guys like Fister (15 GS), Johnson (5) or Wright (5) or worse...

 

2018: 3 starts (Johnson-13)

 

2019: 11 starts by guys like Velazquez (8), Johnson (7) and Cashner (6)

 

He's missed 36 out of 99 starts. That's a huge hole.

 

Yes, the 63 starts were valuable and will need to be replaced. He does have value. I'm not for DFA'ing him.

[mvp 78]

Interesting that you skipped 2016 where he was 35 for 35. He's missed 36 out of 134 starts, or 10%. Not that big of a deal to me. Basically he's due to miss about 5 games this year. Cool.

 

Skewing your argument by starting your timeline at the point where we all thought he needed TJS is kinda funny.

[moonslav59]

Interesting that you skipped 2016 where he was 35 for 35. He's missed 36 out of 134 starts, or 10%. Not that big of a deal to me. Basically he's due to miss about 5 games this year. Cool.

 

Skewing your argument by starting your timeline at the point where we all thought he needed TJS is kinda funny.

 

I'm very consistent using 3 year sample sizes.

 

Let me ask you something: is it more likely he starts 35 games in 2020 or 22? or, 11?

 

He's averaged about 21 starts the last 3 years. How about 35 vs 21?

 

I'd bet closer to 21 than 35.

 

I might even bet closer to 11 than 22. I'd bet the under on 21, for sure.

 

You?

[jacksonianmarch]

2016 is not relevant in 2020. Heck, 2017 is not very relevant either. Use the facts. He missed a ton of time last year, then had throwing wrist surgery. He is also 34 with lots of miles on his arm and a recent history of lost velocity. What makes anyone think he is gonna make 28 starts in 2020? He'd be lucky to make 20

[mvp 78]

I'm very consistent using 3 year sample sizes.

 

Let me ask you something: is it more likely he starts 35 games in 2020 or 22? or, 11?

 

He's averaged about 21 starts the last 3 years. How about 35 vs 21?

 

I'd bet closer to 21 than 35.

 

I might even bet closer to 11 than 22. I'd bet the under on 21, for sure.

 

You?

 

It's more likely that he starts about 30. He's missed about that much in seasons where he hasn't started off on the injury list wondering about TJS.

[Slasher9]

is he still playing Fortnite? that is the real question....

[moonslav59]

It's more likely that he starts about 30. He's missed about that much in seasons where he hasn't started off on the injury list wondering about TJS.

 

I bet he misses his first start.

[mvp 78]

I bet he misses his first start.

 

I bet he doesn't and pitches a QS.

[mvp 78]

is he still playing Fortnite? that is the real question....

 

He only plays Golden Eye now.

[moonslav59]

I bet he doesn't and pitches a QS.

 

A pleasant daydream.

Edited January 23, 2020 by moonslav59

[Slasher9]

I bet he doesn't and pitches a QS.

 

A pleasant daydream.

 

has all the makings of a sig bet....

[Bellhorn04]

I would bet heavy that Price makes his first start, but I wouldn't bet much on the QS.

[mvp 78]

I would bet heavy that Price makes his first start, but I wouldn't bet much on the QS.

 

That's why it's exciting.