A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[kenmeister]

If I believed this was true, I'd probably feel more urgency to move Mookie for whatever we can get, but -- silly homer that I am -- I don't. A gimpy rotation and thin bullpen may prove to be our downfall, but I see no reason to think that a team with a $200+ million payroll and a lineup anchored by Betts (assuming he stays put), Martinez, Bogaerts, and Devers should not be going for it.

 

Our lineup last season was 4th in runs, 5th in OPS, and 4th in total bases in MLB. That's pretty good, but the pitching undermined it. 19th in ERA, 16th in batting average against, and 21st in WHIP. So yeah, we're just not a balanced team. But I don't think you can "go for it" just because of the batting. If they'd signed Gerrit Cole we'd be having a different conversation.

[Slasher9]

not sure we can go for it with just batting without #coragate?

[mvp 78]

We don't know that.

 

Apparently Bloom was asking for 'the moon and stars' anyway.

 

We don't know that.

[mvp 78]

when the other clubs knew for certain JH wanted to reset; Red Sox lost all the leverage on any negotiations.

 

That's like thinking that telling a car salesman that your car just broke down ruins any of your negotiation power.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox are the team with the best chance to win with Mookie in 2020, because no one else will be acquiring him (unless they're willing to give up what he is worth to Bloom and Co.).

 

And the Red Sox chances would be way worse without their best player.

 

Cheer up, fans. Boston has solid players in their primes in six out of eight positions on the field, the best DH, a couple of headliners in the starting rotation, and an industry innovator about to stamp his bullpen brilliance all over the Nation.

 

If the Dodgers get Betts, they will have a better chance to win than us. They have a better chance even without him.

 

"Way worse" than bad is not all that bad.

 

Trading Betts and Price would set us up nicely for 2021 and beyond, both in terms of the added prospect(s) and the budget spade created.

 

Then, sign Betts or a bunch of other FAs this coming winter.

[Slasher9]

That's like thinking that telling a car salesman that your car just broke down ruins any of your negotiation power.

 

i dont approve of this analogy.

[mvp 78]

i dont approve of this analogy.

 

It's the argument you were making though.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Dodgers get Betts, they will have a better chance to win than us. They have a better chance even without him.

 

"Way worse" than bad is not all that bad.

 

Trading Betts and Price would set us up nicely for 2021 and beyond, both in terms of the added prospect(s) and the budget spade created.

 

Then, sign Betts or a bunch of other FAs this coming winter.

 

Then you spend yourself into another cliff. Right now, the sox have the talent to make the playoffs, but the health questions and depth issues that likely put them outside the playoffs. Being a team that misses the POs by 4 games is worse than missing by 20 games, especially when you have a dead farm system. Being far out of the POs gives you a bigger draft pool and better draft position. Being close to the POs puts you in the middle ground and outside the coveted top 6-7 where you can get a truly elite talent. This also depends on the penalties that could be coming in this cheating scandal. If the sox lose their top 2 picks in the 2020 and 2021 draft, then f*** it, see how far you can go. But if they don't, the higher draft pick in 2021 could really be a big thing for the sox going forward.

 

Bloom needs to create lux tax room to appease Henry, although it doesn't alter the product. Bloom needs to deal off some talent to replenish the farm system, and that will downgrade the middling product in the short term but immensely help the product on the field in the long term. Doing what is best for the team involves getting the most talent back. Bloom will change his tune eventually, especially if the sox have a poor start to the season and find themselves down 9 games by mid May

[Slasher9]

It's the argument you were making though.

 

i wasnt making an argument. i was stating a fact. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[moonslav59]

Then you spend yourself into another cliff. Right now, the sox have the talent to make the playoffs, but the health questions and depth issues that likely put them outside the playoffs. Being a team that misses the POs by 4 games is worse than missing by 20 games, especially when you have a dead farm system. Being far out of the POs gives you a bigger draft pool and better draft position. Being close to the POs puts you in the middle ground and outside the coveted top 6-7 where you can get a truly elite talent. This also depends on the penalties that could be coming in this cheating scandal. If the sox lose their top 2 picks in the 2020 and 2021 draft, then f*** it, see how far you can go. But if they don't, the higher draft pick in 2021 could really be a big thing for the sox going forward.

 

Bloom needs to create lux tax room to appease Henry, although it doesn't alter the product. Bloom needs to deal off some talent to replenish the farm system, and that will downgrade the middling product in the short term but immensely help the product on the field in the long term. Doing what is best for the team involves getting the most talent back. Bloom will change his tune eventually, especially if the sox have a poor start to the season and find themselves down 9 games by mid May

 

Wrong, the reset greatly alters the product going forward (not for the good in 2020).

 

Regardless of what the penalties are, we'll be better off, going forward, with 2 prospects and a reset budget.

 

It's funny how you've been bashing the Sox for months and now say they have the talent to make the playoffs. Which is it?

[S5Dewey]

when the other clubs knew for certain JH wanted to reset; Red Sox lost all the leverage on any negotiations.

 

As has been said before many times, "Nothing is sometimes a good thing to do and more often a good thing to say."

[Bellhorn04]

when the other clubs knew for certain JH wanted to reset; Red Sox lost all the leverage on any negotiations.

 

I don't see what 'leverage' they would have lost.

 

When you fire DD, hire Chaim Bloom, make David Price/Mookie Betts available, and you're in the third year of tax penalties, could it be much more obvious what the plan is?

[Bellhorn04]

We don't know that.

 

At least we have a pretty solid rumor to go on.

[kenmeister]

 

Then, sign Betts or a bunch of other FAs this coming winter.

 

I love Mookie but my priority is finding young talented pitching, both starters & relievers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wrong, the reset greatly alters the product going forward (not for the good in 2020).

 

Regardless of what the penalties are, we'll be better off, going forward, with 2 prospects and a reset budget.

 

It's funny how you've been bashing the Sox for months and now say they have the talent to make the playoffs. Which is it?

 

He has and they do...

 

With impending draft pick penalties, there are two ways to approach 2020: 1. Crank instead of Tank; and in the process finish as high as possible, so losing a pick beyond the Top-20 won't hurt as much; 2. Crank, but if by July it Stank... then make trades to replenish the farm. Just don't expect Bloom to gut the roster and swap dollars for nickels; the Red Sox may renovate but they'll never rebuild.

[moonslav59]

I love Mookie but my priority is finding young talented pitching, both starters & relievers.

 

I'm all for that, but you rarely find "young" in free agency.

 

I'd be fine, if we spent the money for Betts on quality arms, and I trust Bloom to know who those are. No more Price & Eovaldi blunders.

[moonslav59]

He has and they do...

 

With impending draft pick penalties, there are two ways to approach 2020: 1. Crank instead of Tank; and in the process finish as high as possible, so losing a pick beyond the Top-20 won't hurt as much; 2. Crank, but if by July it Stank... then make trades to replenish the farm. Just don't expect Bloom to gut the roster and swap dollars for nickels; the Red Sox may renovate but they'll never rebuild.

 

There can be no "crank." All the best FAs are gone. We've already lost more than we've gained, so far this winter, and the starting point was a team that missed the playoffs and has numerous health issues that don't appear to be imrpoving.

 

I'm not sure we'll end up with penalties, and we shouldn't plan on it, but even if we do get some- all the more reason to get some young talent any way possible.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox may renovate but they'll never rebuild.

 

Gobble dee goop.

 

We sucked last year after losing Kimbrel, Kelly, Pom, Nunez and more.

 

We just lost Porcello, Moreland, Pearce and more.

 

We gained Perez and Peraza.

 

Call it whatever you want, but there are great odds against us having even a decent season, let alone a strong one.

 

Clinging to a faint hope will only make 2021 and beyond worse. Time to cut our loses and look beyond 2020.

 

I'm trying to be optimistic by hoping 2021 might bring high hopes (maybe 2022), but if we shoot high for 2020, I'm thinking 2023 might end up being our best hope.

[Slasher9]

We have:

- no manager

- GM under $ restraints

- health question marks on 3 of our SP's

- little depth at 2b & of

- on paper not much of a BP

- Betts insistent on going to FA after the 2020 season

 

2020 is a dead man walking. Red Sox MUST reset the LT this season. if they wait another year it will be worse for us. much, much worse.

[moonslav59]

We have:

- no manager

- GM under $ restraints

- health question marks on 3 of our SP's

- little depth at 2b & of

- on paper not much of a BP

- Betts insistent on going to FA after the 2020 season

 

2020 is a dead man walking. Red Sox MUST reset the LT this season. if they wait another year it will be worse for us. much, much worse.

 

On top of all this, all the good AL teams, except the Astros improved over the winter (on paper).

 

I get how being a fan means believing in your team, but how about believing in 2021 and beyond? This all our eggs into a sketchy 2020 season seems absurd, to me.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

February starts a week from Saturday and what you see is what you got. The Red Sox didn't make any major moves, hung on to all their good players, and this is what they're going with.

 

But I choose not to judge them based on one mediocre year, even if it is the most recent season, to convince myself things are going to get worse rather than better. My optimism is based instead on the larger sample size of the past half decade of accomplishments from Boston's professional stars, along with the potential to improve of those not yet in their primes...

 

Which prediction a year ago would have seemed more unreasonable: that a team that finished first three years in a row would limp into third place in 2019?... or... that a team that finished first three years in a row, then limped into third, would bounce back to contention in 2020?

 

Who knows what the Red Sox roster will look like in '21 (I just can't see how anyone can think the Sox are going to be able to replace their top players from the best club in franchise history and actually improve). I'm focused on 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

On top of all this, all the good AL teams, except the Astros improved over the winter (on paper).

 

I get how being a fan means believing in your team, but how about believing in 2021 and beyond? This all our eggs into a sketchy 2020 season seems absurd, to me.

 

Fans can believe or disbelieve, be optimistic or pessimistic. It doesn't matter. We can't do anything. Thinking that any of our opinions or outlooks matter is what I don't get.

[moonslav59]

February starts a week from Saturday and what you see is what you got. The Red Sox didn't make any major moves, hung on to all their good players, and this is what they're going with.

 

But I choose not to judge them based on one mediocre year, even if it is the most recent season, to convince myself things are going to get worse rather than better. My optimism is based instead on the larger sample size of the past half decade of accomplishments from Boston's professional stars, along with the potential to improve of those not yet in their primes...

 

Which prediction a year ago would have seemed more unreasonable: that a team that finished first three years in a row would limp into third place in 2019?... or... that a team that finished first three years in a row, then limped into third, would bounce back to contention in 2020?

 

Who knows what the Red Sox roster will look like in '21 (I just can't see how anyone can think the Sox are going to be able to replace their top players from the best club in franchise history and actually improve). I'm focused on 2020.

 

That's your choice, but I'm not going to pretend it won't affect 2021 and beyond, if we keep everyone for the long odds of 2020.

[moonslav59]

Fans can believe or disbelieve, be optimistic or pessimistic. It doesn't matter. We can't do anything. Thinking that any of our opinions or outlooks matter is what I don't get.

 

I'm fine with people clinging to 2020 hopes, but I take issue with anyone who thinks keeping everyone doesn't affect 2021 and beyond.

 

I'm not saying our opinions matter to the team and how well or poorly they do, but the win here and now philosophy is what got us into this scrape, and it seems like some are finding it hard to let go of that mentality. To me, doing that as the GM will severely impact our longer term hopes.

 

Doing that as a fan comes natural to many and has no affect on the team's present or future.... nor does hoping we start the rebuild now.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Red Sox Trade Travis Lakins To Cubs, Outright Bobby Poyner

By Steve Adams | January 21, 2020 at 2:35pm CDT

 

The Red Sox traded right-hander Travis Lakins to the Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later or cash, both teams announced Tuesday afternoon. The Sox added that left-hander Bobby Poyner went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Pawtucket. Both teams now have full 40-man rosters.

 

Lakins, 25, was designated for assignment last week. Although he’d consistently ranked in the No. 15-25 range of a thin Boston farm system, the Ohio State product has yet to put together a particularly strong showing in the Majors or in the upper minors. Lakins made his big league debut this past season, yielding a 3.86 ERA with a lackluster 18-to-10 K/BB ratio in 23 2/3 innings for Boston. His work in Triple-A has been rather similar, as he’s compiled a 3.82 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and slightly below-average grounder rates in parts of two seasons there.

 

Scouting reports on Lakins praise his curveball as a potential above-average offering, and he did average 93.8 mph on his heater in his brief MLB work. Clearly, the new Chaim Bloom-led front office isn’t enthralled with the right-hander, but the Cubs and their ongoing quest to stockpile ’pen depth without actually adding to the payroll in a meaningful way saw enough upside to take a flier.

 

Poyner, meanwhile, limped to a 6.94 ERA in just 11 2/3 innings last year. He posted solid numbers for the BoSox in his debut campaign (2018) and has averaged nearly 10 punchouts per nine innings pitched over the life of his minor league career. Having gone unclaimed, Poyner will remain in the organization without requiring a 40-man roster spot, so the Sox could take another look at him down the line in 2020.

[moonslav59]

Here are the players added to the 40 man roster by Bloom:

(Red = 9 acquired by Bloom)

 

Josh Osich

Bobby Dalbec

CJ Chatham

Marcus Wilson

Yoan Aybar

Kyle Hart

Jonathan Arauz

Jose Peraza

Martin Perez

Chris Mazza

Kevin Plawecki

Austin Brice

Jeffery Springs

Matt Hall

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here are the players added to the 40 man roster by Bloom:

(Red = 9 acquired by Bloom)

 

Josh Osich

Bobby Dalbec

CJ Chatham

Marcus Wilson

Yoan Aybar

Kyle Hart

Jonathan Arauz

Jose Peraza

Martin Perez

Chris Mazza

Kevin Plawecki

Austin Brice

Jeffery Springs

Matt Hall

 

 

Eight pitchers, mostly relievers! Bloom is obviously preparing for the new three-batter minimum rule... get ready for a couple three-man rotations: starters, and then openers/middlers/and twiddlers.

[moonslav59]

Eight pitchers, mostly relievers! Bloom is obviously preparing for the new three-batter minimum rule... get ready for a couple three-man rotations: starters, and then openers/middlers/and twiddlers.

 

Last year, I believe we went the whole year with 13 pitchers. I don't recall that ever happening before. (Can anybody check that?)

 

With the 26th man added this year, I'm thinking it might be a stretch to think we go with 14 pitchers for any extended period of time.

 

Here is our pitching depth chart as I see it, assuming everyone is healthy:

 

Rotation (5): Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, Perez

Long Relievers (2): D Hernandez & Velazquez

Relievers (6): Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, Hembree, Brasier

 

Others on 40 man roster (10):

Brice, Weber, Hart, Shawaryn, Brewer, Osich, Mazza, Springs, M Hall, D Reyes

 

Others NOT on 40 man roster who may conribute in 2020 (9):

B Johnson, B Poyner, T Houck, D McGrath, B Mata, T Ward, J Diaz, D Feltman, E Bazardo

 

Am I forgetting someone?

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Eight pitchers, mostly relievers! Bloom is obviously preparing for the new three-batter minimum rule... get ready for a couple three-man rotations: starters, and then openers/middlers/and twiddlers.

 

Of the 9 players Bloom acquired, 6 are pitchers. Plawecki, Peraza & Auraz are non pitchers. Perez is a SP'er- the other 5 RP'ers.

 

Of the 5 in-system additions, 2 are pitchers: Hart is projected as a SP'er in AAA and Aybar is projected to start in single A, so we won't be seeing him in 2020.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Say the Sox start strong and play about 10 games over .500 through July, enough to stay in contention for a playoff berth. Which would you prefer: Bloom "buying" at the deadline, maybe for one more starter or back end reliever, or promoting from within?

 

It may depend on whether a team is just trying to qualify for the postseason or making an actual run at a ring... Strength of competition also has to be considered; is someone running away with the division? A final factor for this Red Sox squad is the chance it may be the last hurrah for the current core...