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Posted
It wasn't a few hours days or weeks ago?

 

Now it's reached a peak.

 

-It started with Henry making the statement about cutting payroll.

-We're all waiting for some big trade to happen, but nothing happens.

-Our new guy has no money to work with and has signed only the Thriller P's.

-The Houston cheating scandal reaches its day of decision and we read in horror that our manager is outed as a key player. He is soon our ex-manager.

-The Boston cheating investigation drags on and on with no resolution. We've heard J D Martinez swear innocence, but there seems to be statistical evidence against us. We might be getting whacked like Houston did.

-We still don't have a new manager.

-The most exciting development is that Mookie Betts might be getting traded.

Posted
Now it's reached a peak.

 

-It started with Henry making the statement about cutting payroll.

-We're all waiting for some big trade to happen, but nothing happens.

-Our new guy has no money to work with and has signed only the Thriller P's.

-The Houston cheating scandal reaches its day of decision and we read in horror that our manager is outed as a key player. He is soon our ex-manager.

-The Boston cheating investigation drags on and on with no resolution. We've heard J D Martinez swear innocence, but there seems to be statistical evidence against us. We might be getting whacked like Houston did.

-We still don't have a new manager.

-The most exciting development is that Mookie Betts might be getting traded.

 

I hear you loud and clear.

 

Fire sale time. Begin the chant, "Wait until next year!"

Posted
Now it's reached a peak.

 

-It started with Henry making the statement about cutting payroll.

-We're all waiting for some big trade to happen, but nothing happens.

-Our new guy has no money to work with and has signed only the Thriller P's.

-The Houston cheating scandal reaches its day of decision and we read in horror that our manager is outed as a key player. He is soon our ex-manager.

-The Boston cheating investigation drags on and on with no resolution. We've heard J D Martinez swear innocence, but there seems to be statistical evidence against us. We might be getting whacked like Houston did.

-We still don't have a new manager.

-The most exciting development is that Mookie Betts might be getting traded.

 

That is a rough off season. But you had to know coming into 2020 that it would be getting rough. The cliff is upon the sox. They've tumbled down it. The best move the sox made was bringing in Bloom. The guy who makes unpopular deals and somehow ends up being right far more than he is wrong. I've said before, that I really, really hoped the sox held onto Betts for 2020, if only to minimize the sox future beyond 2020. You can get him back for literally nothing but money. As a matter of fact, to keep him beyond 2020, you need only money. So if 2020 is the year the sox get whalloped with penalties, but the year Bloom stays inactive, then it will be a devastating year for the sox. If the sox build their farm and take down their payroll allowing for future signings, then it will be a success. I doubt anyone with a right mind thinks the sox are good enough to win without just a ridiculous amount of luck.

Posted
That is a rough off season. But you had to know coming into 2020 that it would be getting rough. The cliff is upon the sox. They've tumbled down it. The best move the sox made was bringing in Bloom. The guy who makes unpopular deals and somehow ends up being right far more than he is wrong. I've said before, that I really, really hoped the sox held onto Betts for 2020, if only to minimize the sox future beyond 2020. You can get him back for literally nothing but money. As a matter of fact, to keep him beyond 2020, you need only money. So if 2020 is the year the sox get whalloped with penalties, but the year Bloom stays inactive, then it will be a devastating year for the sox. If the sox build their farm and take down their payroll allowing for future signings, then it will be a success. I doubt anyone with a right mind thinks the sox are good enough to win without just a ridiculous amount of luck.

 

Is 25:1 ridiculous luck?

Posted
Not really sure about the odds, although sports books has the sox at 14th best odds in baseball.

 

I looked the other day and was surprised to see us 25 to 1.

 

I also found us ranked 4th or 5th in odds among AL teams.

Posted
Even you Jacko couldn’t have dreamed of a nightmare scenario like this.

 

The sox purses are sealed closed and now the looming punishment looks to cripple a rebuild effort before it is started? Yep, that's far better than I had expected. What would have clinched things would have been a hire of a retread failed GM buddy of JH. Alas, it didn't happen. You've got a smart guy there. If he gets the green light for a rebuild, I have a feeling the next fall of the Yanks will coincide with the sox rising.

 

Now I know a lot of sox fans on here hate that I am posting that the sox need to rebuild, but heck, the majority of the forum here believes me (at least by the poll). It is just the few rosy glassed folks (the unabatedly optimistic), those who just want to hang on for one more crack (the hoping 2019 was an aberration crowd) or just the outright idiots (tedballgame) who cannot see the merit in this venture.

 

It all starts with looking at your team. Right now, there are holes. Your rotation has 3 guys who missed half the season last year. Your ace is coming off a down year with lower velocity and couldn't finish the regular season for the second season in a row due to an arm issue. Your #2 (ERod) had a career season, but prior to 2019, took annual trips to the DL. Your #3 (Price) is on the market for anyone who will take him and is coming off surgery on his throwing arm after not being able to finish the season in the rotation for the 2nd time in 3 years.. Your #4 is literally the poster child for upside without production or durability. You lost a durable (albeit poorly performing for 2019) pitcher in Porcello and replaced him with (Joe Glass) Martin Perez. The sox depth consists of Neck Tat and a recently DFAd Brian Johnson. Nobody else even remotely good is ready to jump in. The pitching market, which was impressive, was largely untouched by the sox. The rotation, which was an Achilles heel in 2019, is a year older, a year more injured and a year worse. The pen was a mess. Workman turned out to be a find, although last year was far and away his best season. Maybe he repeats it, maybe he doesn't. Either way, he is a useful building block. Matt Barnes imploded in higher leverage and became allergic to pitching back to back. Hembree sucked and couldn't stay on the field. Taylor was a find and should be useful in middle relief. The rest of the pen was pretty bad and is being replaced by DFA'd players from the Marlins et al. Looking at the 2020 pitching staff, how can anyone be excited that they can stop runs? The sox offense is gonna be top 5 again. They're deep, and outside of Brock Holt and Mitchy Average Bags, didn't lose much that they cannot replace internally. So for 2020, the sox are the Rockies of old. They're gonna score some runs, they're gonna allow a lot of runs. They were an 84 win team in 2019. With the changes, they're trending towards that again.

 

Then you have to look at your financial situation. You have a CONSIDERABLE amount of money tied up in underperforming assets for the next 3 seasons. Eovaldi and Price account for $48 mil per year on the payroll and they're not worth half that. You have a brand new 5 year deal with Sale that looks bad from the start. The only long term contracts that look awesome right now are X-Bo and Vasquez. Heck, even JD couldn't drum up enough interest to walk away, and he is still a force with the stick. The financial picture clears considerably after 2022. Price, Eo, JDM are off the books. You will have needed to either extend or deal ERod by then. Devers enters his final arb season and Beni has his first FA season. But the slate will be wiped clean beyond X-Bo and Sale.

 

Then you have to look at your farm. The sox farm has some useful pieces. Dalbec could be an option out of the gate in 2020. Chavis graduated last year. Casas is a humongous mammoth with a bat. He could end up as the starting 1b in 3 years or so if he handles the higher levels and the more advanced pitching. Outside of Mata (who's upside is a 3 or so), the sox pitching is dead. Beyond Casas and Dalbec, only maybe Chatham and Duran (less so, IMO) look to have any now value. As far as a farm system is concerned, it's pretty bleak

 

Then you look outside the team. Your division has 2 buzz saws in it. The Rays are going to be good for awhile with their recent deals. As long as they keep dealing off expensive talents for cheap and hitting, they will be good. IMO, their model allows them to be relevant, but never a fool proof WS candidate. Then you've got the Yanks, who are the odds on favorite to win the WS. The Yanks are likely staring at a 3 yr window of their own before their cheaper talents get really expensive and get signed for a long time. The rest of the ALE has the Jays, who will be interesting with a revamped rotation and a core that is the envy of baseball with the stick, and the O's, who are still blowing everything up. In the AL, you have the Astros, A's, Guardians, Twins and maybe even the White Sox as major competitors

 

Then you have the added wrinkle of the investigation. If the sox get what is expected and lose the picks Houston lost AND take an IFA hit, they won't be able to rebuild without a tear down.

 

So, what makes anyone think a tear down isn't in the cards? Bloom has done nothing to extend the window or prop it open. He has also done nothing to tear things down. But it seems to be coming

Posted
The sox purses are sealed closed and now the looming punishment looks to cripple a rebuild effort before it is started? Yep, that's far better than I had expected. What would have clinched things would have been a hire of a retread failed GM buddy of JH. Alas, it didn't happen. You've got a smart guy there. If he gets the green light for a rebuild, I have a feeling the next fall of the Yanks will coincide with the sox rising.

 

Now I know a lot of sox fans on here hate that I am posting that the sox need to rebuild, but heck, the majority of the forum here believes me (at least by the poll). It is just the few rosy glassed folks (the unabatedly optimistic), those who just want to hang on for one more crack (the hoping 2019 was an aberration crowd) or just the outright idiots (tedballgame) who cannot see the merit in this venture.

 

It all starts with looking at your team. Right now, there are holes. Your rotation has 3 guys who missed half the season last year. Your ace is coming off a down year with lower velocity and couldn't finish the regular season for the second season in a row due to an arm issue. Your #2 (ERod) had a career season, but prior to 2019, took annual trips to the DL. Your #3 (Price) is on the market for anyone who will take him and is coming off surgery on his throwing arm after not being able to finish the season in the rotation for the 2nd time in 3 years.. Your #4 is literally the poster child for upside without production or durability. You lost a durable (albeit poorly performing for 2019) pitcher in Porcello and replaced him with (Joe Glass) Martin Perez. The sox depth consists of Neck Tat and a recently DFAd Brian Johnson. Nobody else even remotely good is ready to jump in. The pitching market, which was impressive, was largely untouched by the sox. The rotation, which was an Achilles heel in 2019, is a year older, a year more injured and a year worse. The pen was a mess. Workman turned out to be a find, although last year was far and away his best season. Maybe he repeats it, maybe he doesn't. Either way, he is a useful building block. Matt Barnes imploded in higher leverage and became allergic to pitching back to back. Hembree sucked and couldn't stay on the field. Taylor was a find and should be useful in middle relief. The rest of the pen was pretty bad and is being replaced by DFA'd players from the Marlins et al. Looking at the 2020 pitching staff, how can anyone be excited that they can stop runs? The sox offense is gonna be top 5 again. They're deep, and outside of Brock Holt and Mitchy Average Bags, didn't lose much that they cannot replace internally. So for 2020, the sox are the Rockies of old. They're gonna score some runs, they're gonna allow a lot of runs. They were an 84 win team in 2019. With the changes, they're trending towards that again.

 

Then you have to look at your financial situation. You have a CONSIDERABLE amount of money tied up in underperforming assets for the next 3 seasons. Eovaldi and Price account for $48 mil per year on the payroll and they're not worth half that. You have a brand new 5 year deal with Sale that looks bad from the start. The only long term contracts that look awesome right now are X-Bo and Vasquez. Heck, even JD couldn't drum up enough interest to walk away, and he is still a force with the stick. The financial picture clears considerably after 2022. Price, Eo, JDM are off the books. You will have needed to either extend or deal ERod by then. Devers enters his final arb season and Beni has his first FA season. But the slate will be wiped clean beyond X-Bo and Sale.

 

Then you have to look at your farm. The sox farm has some useful pieces. Dalbec could be an option out of the gate in 2020. Chavis graduated last year. Casas is a humongous mammoth with a bat. He could end up as the starting 1b in 3 years or so if he handles the higher levels and the more advanced pitching. Outside of Mata (who's upside is a 3 or so), the sox pitching is dead. Beyond Casas and Dalbec, only maybe Chatham and Duran (less so, IMO) look to have any now value. As far as a farm system is concerned, it's pretty bleak

 

Then you look outside the team. Your division has 2 buzz saws in it. The Rays are going to be good for awhile with their recent deals. As long as they keep dealing off expensive talents for cheap and hitting, they will be good. IMO, their model allows them to be relevant, but never a fool proof WS candidate. Then you've got the Yanks, who are the odds on favorite to win the WS. The Yanks are likely staring at a 3 yr window of their own before their cheaper talents get really expensive and get signed for a long time. The rest of the ALE has the Jays, who will be interesting with a revamped rotation and a core that is the envy of baseball with the stick, and the O's, who are still blowing everything up. In the AL, you have the Astros, A's, Guardians, Twins and maybe even the White Sox as major competitors

 

Then you have the added wrinkle of the investigation. If the sox get what is expected and lose the picks Houston lost AND take an IFA hit, they won't be able to rebuild without a tear down.

 

So, what makes anyone think a tear down isn't in the cards? Bloom has done nothing to extend the window or prop it open. He has also done nothing to tear things down. But it seems to be coming

 

A good summary. I'd add Ward and Groome as possible pitching prospects with high potential.

Posted
A good summary. I'd add Ward and Groome as possible pitching prospects with high potential.

 

Ward sounds like a swing man. Groome is probably gonna be pushed to relief so he isn't taken in the Rule V after this year. They need to move him up the ranks quickly and see what he has, or he will be gone

Posted
Ward sounds like a swing man. Groome is probably gonna be pushed to relief so he isn't taken in the Rule V after this year. They need to move him up the ranks quickly and see what he has, or he will be gone

 

We should have no problems with rule 5 for a while.

 

Weak farm.

 

Weak 40 man roster depth.

 

Rule 5 DEC 2020:

 

Christopher Acosta

Eduard Bazardo

Garrett Benge

Gary Calvo

Marino Campana

Pedro Castellanos

Kutter Crawford

Ricardo Cubillan

Chad De La Guerra

Jerry Downs

Jose Espada

Rio Gomez

Matthew Gorst

Jay Groome

Hunter Haworth

Tanner Houck

Matt Kent

Jose Larez

Adam Lau

Dominic LoBrutto

Nick Lovullo

Everlouis Lozada

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Alan Marrero

Joan Martinez

Bryan Mata

Tate Matheny

Alexander Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Brett Netzer

Tanner Nishioka

Emerson Ortiz

Michael Osinski

Yorvin Pantoja

Keibert Petit

Isaac Pinales

Antonio Police

Bobby Poyner

Roniel Raudes

Austin Rei

Jeremy Rivera

Kleiber Rodriguez

Jagger Rusconi

Kelvin Sanchez

Yasel Santana

Zach Schellinger

Alex Scherff

Nick Sciortino

Kervin Suarez

Jake Thompson

Josh Tobias

Posted
Ward sounds like a swing man. Groome is probably gonna be pushed to relief so he isn't taken in the Rule V after this year. They need to move him up the ranks quickly and see what he has, or he will be gone

 

Ward has been increasing velocity and added a cutter. He pitched 25 starts and 126 IP, this year, at age 23.

 

You might be short-changing him.

 

Groome is a big question mark, and you are right about 2020 needing to be his year to show serious growth.

 

You also did not mention Jimenez, but he is pretty far away.

Posted
Houck and Mata are at least close enough to make sense. Groome is likely headed back to A ball. Bloom is a guy who builds depth. That depth isn’t helped when you’ve got a 40 man spots held for a kid who’s a couple years away. Typically high upside pitchers who lose valuable early development time get shifted to the pen to rapidly assess progress. Let’s just say, it wouldn’t surprise me at all
Posted
Houck and Mata are at least close enough to make sense. Groome is likely headed back to A ball. Bloom is a guy who builds depth. That depth isn’t helped when you’ve got a 40 man spots held for a kid who’s a couple years away. Typically high upside pitchers who lose valuable early development time get shifted to the pen to rapidly assess progress. Let’s just say, it wouldn’t surprise me at all

 

If Groome shows promise, we can make space on the 40 man. Right now, we have 17-20 guys we could lose without blinking.

 

If he's still in single A by season's end, it's highly unlikely anyone picks him, if he's not protected, unless he shows serious growth in '20.

Posted (edited)
If Groome shows promise, we can make space on the 40 man. Right now, we have 17-20 guys we could lose without blinking.

 

If he's still in single A by season's end, it's highly unlikely anyone picks him, if he's not protected, unless he shows serious growth in '20.

 

We have 3 brand new lefty specialist relief pitchers on the 40 man all added right before a 3 batter rule is implemented to make them obsolete

Edited by notin
Posted
We have 3 brand new lefty specialist relief pitchers on the 40 man all added right before a 3 batter rule is implemented to make them obsolete

 

We have a lot of obsolete or near obsolete players on the 40 man roster plus deadwood contracts and one-year controlled players.

 

Would you fret, if we DFA'd or traded any of these guys for nothing special?

 

4 Salary Dumps or Deadwood:

Pedey

Price

Eovaldi

JBJ (one year left)

 

9 Mehs

Hembree

Lin

Velazquez

Brasier

Brewer

Reyes

Weber

Shawaryn

Osich

 

 

4 Players that would be missed but have just 1-2 years of team control left:

1

Workman

JD Matinez (likely opt out unless he gets hurt or declines sharply)

2

Barnes

Perez

 

That's 17 players out of 40, then these 9-12 recently added players to the list:

Matt Hall

Jeffery Springs

Austin Brice

Chris Mazza

Jonathan Arauz (rule 5)

Plawecki (2 more arbs)

Jose Peraza (2 more arbs)

Kyle Hart

Yoan Aybar

Marcus Wilson (likely Keeper)

CJ Chatham (likely Keeper)

Bobby Dalbec (Keeper)

 

It's clear we have over 20+ players with very little plus value, if any.

Posted

MLB Trade Values website assigns values to players and prospects based on their projected worth and contractual cost.

 

It's certainly not a perfect set-up, but there are some interesting data points to look at.

 

The Sox have just 8 players valued over 20.

127 Devers

91 Bogey

51 Betts

36 Beni

28 ERod

24 Barnes

23 Vaz

22 Casas (the only prospect)

 

We only have 5 from 10-19.9 (all prospects of recently graduated):

19.7 Dalbec

17.7 Chavis

12.4 Mata

12.1 Duran

10.6 D Hern

 

2 over 90/ 3 over 50/8 over 20/ 13 over 10

 

Here's what a few other teams have:

 

Braves (2 over 185!)

2 over 90/6 over 50/12 over 20/20 over 10 (9 are prospects)

 

Jays (2 over 120)

2 over 90/ 3 over 50/ 7 over 20/ 14 over 10

 

Dodgers (2 over 112)

2 over 90/ 7 over 50/ 11 over 20/ 20 over 10 (7 prospects)

 

Padres (1 over 120)

1 over 90/ 5 over 50/ 11 over 20/ 21 over 10 (10 prospects)

 

Orioles (1 over 79)

0 over 90/ 1 over 50/ 4 over 20/ 8 over 10

 

Yankees (1 @ 120)

1 over 90/ 3 over 50/ 9 over 20/ 16 over 10 (3 prospects)

Posted

Negative value Players:

 

Sox

-55 Price

-30 Eovaldi

-25 Pedey

-14 Castillo

-11 Sale

 

Some other teams:

 

Padres

-102 Hosmer

-73 Machado

-55 Myers

 

Giants

-40 Cueto

-34 Posey

-33 Longoria

-18 Belt

-14 Samardzija

-14 Crawford

 

Yanks

-125 Stanton

-28 Hicks

-9 Happ

-5 Cole

-5 Britton

-2 Tanaka

-1 Gardener

 

Cards

-38 Goldschmidt

-25 Fowler

-19 Carpenter

-13Molina

-7 Cecil

-6 Mikolas

-4 Martinez

-2 Miller

 

Cubs

-73 Heywood

-21 Lester

-21 Kimbrel

-9 Chatwood

-3 Descalso

 

Posted

With the Padres in play, there may be more pressure for LA to cave and keep Betts out of a rival's uniform.

 

The prize is Mookie, and the cost is high-upside prospects. The Dodgers can keep Lux and May, but they need to give up Verdugo, Gray and Gonsolin. I don't care what the simulator says, what's the market value on a player who puts a team over the top?

 

LA won 106 games last year when none of the three farmhands listed were major factors. Trading them wouldn't crush the future; May is poised to replace Ryu, and Lux could be Rookie of the Year. With Betts, they'd be favorites to at least get back to the World Series... and be a favorite to sign him longterm.

 

Boston would receive a good young outfielder and pitching depth. If one of the two develops enough to take a regular turn in the rotation, they could still be competitive in 2020. Scoff away, but this is the minimum type of return I trust Bloom is still holding out for...

Posted
With the Padres in play, there may be more pressure for LA to cave and keep Betts out of a rival's uniform.

 

The prize is Mookie, and the cost is high-upside prospects. The Dodgers can keep Lux and May, but they need to give up Verdugo, Gray and Gonsolin. I don't care what the simulator says, what's the market value on a player who puts a team over the top?

 

LA won 106 games last year when none of the three farmhands listed were major factors. Trading them wouldn't crush the future; May is poised to replace Ryu, and Lux could be Rookie of the Year. With Betts, they'd be favorites to at least get back to the World Series... and be a favorite to sign him longterm.

 

Boston would receive a good young outfielder and pitching depth. If one of the two develops enough to take a regular turn in the rotation, they could still be competitive in 2020. Scoff away, but this is the minimum type of return I trust Bloom is still holding out for...

 

No way we get all 3. Maybe Gonsolin and Gray or Cartaya.

 

We need to get LA to take Eovaldi or Price with Betts. Gives us back Pollock to even up the money a little plus some prospects.

Posted
Betts, Eovaldi & Workman

 

for

 

Pollock

Maeda

Gonsolin

Gray

Wong

Beaty

 

I'd hold out for Verdugo, and they can keep Pollock and Maeda. LA won't need Verdugo if they get Mookie Betts; they'll have a starting outfield of Betts, Bellinger and Pederson (avg. 37 HRs), with Pollock and Chris Taylor as decent back-ups. The Dodgers will also want to keep Maeda, their #4 starter last year, since they lost Ryu and Hill.

Posted
I'd hold out for Verdugo, and they can keep Pollock and Maeda. LA won't need Verdugo if they get Mookie Betts; they'll have a starting outfield of Betts, Bellinger and Pederson (avg. 37 HRs), with Pollock and Chris Taylor as decent back-ups. The Dodgers will also want to keep Maeda, their #4 starter last year, since they lost Ryu and Hill.

 

Betts has one year. They'll need Verdugo after Betts bolts.

 

If the plan is to sign Betts, they can just wait a year and trade Verdugo for a position of need..

 

Pollock is to balance Eovaldi not Betts, but he can play OF to fill JBJ or Betts's slot.

 

(Sign Betts this winter and play Pollock in CF.)

 

If the Dodgers trade for Betts without giving us Pederson or Pollock, they'll be overloaded in the OF for 2020 but short in 2021. Trading Verdugo is NOT happening.

 

Dodger OF'ers:

Bellinger

Pollock

Pederson

Taylor

Verdugo

 

Betts makes 6 for 2020.

 

They'd probably want us to take Pollock & Pederson for Betts & Eovaldi, but no way on Verdugo.

 

I might rather have Gonsolin, Stripling and Gray than Gonsolin & Verdugo anyways.

Posted
I'd hold out for Verdugo, and they can keep Pollock and Maeda. LA won't need Verdugo if they get Mookie Betts; they'll have a starting outfield of Betts, Bellinger and Pederson (avg. 37 HRs), with Pollock and Chris Taylor as decent back-ups. The Dodgers will also want to keep Maeda, their #4 starter last year, since they lost Ryu and Hill.

The Dodgers won't want the underwater contract of Nathan Eovaldi in the deal when, according to one source, Mookie Betts and Alex Verdugo have the same surplus value:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/7685/

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9657/

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8096/

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