A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[mvp 78]

has all the makings of a sig bet....

 

The last bet I made was with Kimmi and she disappeared soon after. I don't want to do that to the #3 ranked TalkSox member.

[Noles_1335]

DP will only go 4 in his first start. He will be on a pitch count so that should eliminate the QS.

[mvp 78]

DP will only go 4 in his first start. He will be on a pitch count so that should eliminate the QS.

 

You guys are no fun sometimes.

[Bellhorn04]

You guys are no fun sometimes.

 

Still a lot better than not making the start.

[Bellhorn04]

Some buzz that the Sox may be close to re-signing Moreland - for substantially less than his previous salary.

[vegasbob]

Some buzz that the Sox may be close to re-signing Moreland - for substantially less than his previous salary.

 

$2 or 3 million maybe for the elusive LH bat at 1B ? You would think that platooning you could get a full year out of Mitch but at whatever salary , he struggles to get in 4 months out of 6.

[Bellhorn04]

$2 or 3 million maybe for the elusive LH bat at 1B ? You would think that platooning you could get a full year out of Mitch but at whatever salary , he struggles to get in 4 months out of 6.

 

It's the time of year for hope though.

[vegasbob]

It's the time of year for hope though.

 

Good point. Hope is never a game plan or good strategy but it does make you wonder if 2020 could turn out to be a laugher. Here's why--

1. Mookie is here it seems and in his walk year trying to justify the mucho millions he will get in 2021

2. We have a great defensive CF'er to chase flyballs

3. Our LF'er is less bulky (read Phat) and more athletic than last year.

4. We have one hell of a DH

5. Our 3bman, SS and catcher are entering their prime career years and are under contract or control.

6. There is always the very rare chance that somehow Price, Sale and Eovaldi actually can pitch into summer. And Erod should also be entering a mature phase , building off 2019.

7. Bullpen, well just be hopeful Workman has a rubber arm.

 

They won't know what pitch is coming, but these individuals are not incapable of being successful over a several month period, like right up to the trade deadline.

[mvp 78]

Some buzz that the Sox may be close to re-signing Moreland - for substantially less than his previous salary.

 

In!

[moonslav59]

Good point. Hope is never a game plan or good strategy but it does make you wonder if 2020 could turn out to be a laugher. Here's why--

1. Mookie is here it seems and in his walk year trying to justify the mucho millions he will get in 2021

2. We have a great defensive CF'er to chase flyballs

3. Our LF'er is less bulky (read Phat) and more athletic than last year.

4. We have one hell of a DH

5. Our 3bman, SS and catcher are entering their prime career years and are under contract or control.

6. There is always the very rare chance that somehow Price, Sale and Eovaldi actually can pitch into summer. And Erod should also be entering a mature phase , building off 2019.

7. Bullpen, well just be hopeful Workman has a rubber arm.

 

They won't know what pitch is coming, but these individuals are not incapable of being successful over a several month period, like right up to the trade deadline.

 

Good points. Maybe someday I will get some optimism about 2020. I've never felt or said we have no chance at competing. We have too many really good to great players to think we have no chance, but to me, we need too much to go right for the chances to be realistic. (I'm one who do not agree with the position that 2013 was a year of career outliers. However, I pretty much wrote us off before the 2013 season began.)

 

Here's a break down of the 2020 Sox:

 

Vaz: This guy has been so up and down, it's hard to project anything. .735 and .798 in 2017 & 2019 but .585 and .540 in 2016 & 2018. Should we expect .690, his career OPS? He's only been within 100 points of.690 once his whole career. What concerns me most about Vaz is his defense and how poorly he seems to do with getting the most out of our pitchers.

 

Plawecki: Apparently, he's good with pitchers, but the .636 career OPS (.629 in 2019) doesn't look much different than Leon.

 

Chavis (1B): I guess I just don't share the optimism on this guy. While his .766 rookie season looks very nice, it was largely fueled by a red hot start. Once pitchers figured him out, he struggled mightily. (.986 in first 22 games/ .696 in last 73 games)

 

Peraza (2B): It's hard to get optimistic with a guy who hit .631 last year and has a .686 career. Chavis at 2B might give better offense, but who plays 1B? Dalbec?

 

Bogaerts (SS): Coming off a career year. I'm pumped up on Bogey.

 

Devers (3B): Came into his own in 2019. Super excited here!

 

Benintendi (LF): Not as extreme as Vaz, but has been up and down over his 4 seasons- almost to a perfect relationship: .835>.776>.830>.774. I'm hopeful Beni can have a bust out season, but another .775 type season is certainly possible.

 

JBJ (CF): His recent career has been inspected and dissected to an extreme. He has been plagued by horrific slumps to start off his last 3 seasons. He's done well the rest of the seasons, and his defense is still strong.

 

Betts (RF): I'm hoping he retires in a Sox uniform. It's his "walk year," so maybe he will outshine 2018's numbers. Maybe.

 

Martinez (DH): This guy has been a light out hitter for several years in a row.

 

All-in-all, our offense should be top 4 or 5, barring any trades.

 

The pitching is almost impossible to project. ERod, Workman, Walden & Taylor had career years in 2019. Will they repeat, improve or decline? Only ERod seems like a near sure bet. Price, Sale & Eovaldi are the keys to winning (or losing) in 2020. Nobody knows how healthy they will be, and even if they are all never miss a start, how good they will be is somewhat questionable. Barnes and Hembree failed to impress in 2019 but offer some hope. DHern had an off the charts K rate (16.9), but his BB rate was eye-opening as well (7.7). I'm hopeful he improves, but who knows? Perez replacing Porcello is not too exciting.

 

All-in-all, the pitching staff is highly questionable, at best.

[Larry Cook]

Padres and Sox talking Betts????

 

Makes sense. Lots to talk about.

[a700hitter]

I am calling BS on the Betts to Padres rumor.

[moonslav59]

I am calling BS on the Betts to Padres rumor.

 

I can't see it, either.

[Jack Flap]

Yeah, sorry, but this is absurd, unless Bloom is smoking the shroom:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/padres-discussing-mookie-betts-trade-with-red-sox.html

 

"The main stumbling block in trade talks is how much of Myers’ contract the Red Sox would be covering,*Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune*reports, as the Padres want Boston’s obligation “to be much closer to the full value of the contract.”* The prospects reportedly being discussed in the trade aren’t any of San Diego’s “top five minor leaguers,” which would mean the likes of Gore or Patino aren’t involved."

[mvp 78]

Yuck

[mvp 78]

Maybe that’s why no trade seems close.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, sorry, but this is absurd, unless Bloom is smoking the shroom:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/padres-discussing-mookie-betts-trade-with-red-sox.html

 

"The main stumbling block in trade talks is how much of Myers’ contract the Red Sox would be covering,*Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune*reports, as the Padres want Boston’s obligation “to be much closer to the full value of the contract.”* The prospects reportedly being discussed in the trade aren’t any of San Diego’s “top five minor leaguers,” which would mean the likes of Gore or Patino aren’t involved."

 

This is absurd.

 

Betts for Myers and no good prospects wouldn't be a good deal, even if SD paid all Myers's contract!

[moonslav59]

"The main stumbling block in trade talks is how much of Myers’ contract the Red Sox would be covering,*Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune*reports, as the Padres want Boston’s obligation “to be much closer to the full value of the contract.”* The prospects reportedly being discussed in the trade aren’t any of San Diego’s “top five minor leaguers,” which would mean the likes of Gore or Patino aren’t involved."

 

According to the trade simulator, Betts for Myers with SD paying half of his deal would put the values at +50.7 to SD and -25.3 to BOS.

 

Differential 76.0.

 

If we get no top 5 prospects:

121.5 Tatis Jr

82.4 Gore

51.8 Abrams

50.2 Patino

32.1 Trammell

 

That leaves this:

ML Level:

Paddack 79.1 P

Lucchesi 38.3 P

Lamet 25.4 P

Mejia 22.2 C

Pham 20.7 OF

Grisham 18.8 OF

Naylor 18.5 OF/1B

Yates 16.0 Closer (last year)

Munoz 9.8 P

Cordero 9.6 OF

Quantrill 8.8 P

Baez 8.0 P

Wingenter 7.7 P

Strahm 7.5 P

Margot 6.6 OF

France 5.8 3B

 

Prospects:

Campusano 25.1 C

Morejon 13.7 P

Potts 11.9 3B (1B?)

Arias 11.3 SS (2B?)

Weathers 11.0 P

Rosario 10.8 OF

Miller 8.0 3B

Marcano 7.2 2B

 

To reach 76, I suppose this package meets the value set by this site:

Campusano 25.1 C

Morejon 13.7 P

Potts 11.9 3B (1B?)

Arias 11.3 SS (2B?)

Weathers 11.0 P

 

Maybe we get a ML'er or two + 3-4 prospects.

 

I don't see any combo that works for me.

 

(Plus, we pay Myers for 3 years. Betts is done after 2020.)

[notin]

2016 is not relevant in 2020. Heck, 2017 is not very relevant either. Use the facts. He missed a ton of time last year, then had throwing wrist surgery. He is also 34 with lots of miles on his arm and a recent history of lost velocity. What makes anyone think he is gonna make 28 starts in 2020? He'd be lucky to make 20

 

Yeah he’s no CC Sabathia

 

Or is he?

 

Sabathia (ages 31-33): 68 GS 97ERA+

Price (ages 31-33) 63 GS 118ERA+

 

Sabathia (ages 34-38) 118GS 104ERA+

 

It wouldn’t be unheard of for Price to recover. And possibly improve...

[jacksonianmarch]

CC made 93 starts from 31-33. It was his age 34 season that he had knee surgery and missed the year. He then made 27 or more starts 4 years in a row after that with two seasons of 30+. Price has had a season of 11 starts and a season of 22 starts over the last 3 seasons. Outside of CC’s knee surgery season, he’s never started less than 22 games. That goes through his age 39 season.

 

The other major difference is that CC lost his fastball earlier than Price did and lost it to a more significant degree. CC completely reinvented himself, something Price has been slow to do

[mvp 78]

The article suggested Myers, Grisham, Croneworth, Campusano and one of either Quantrill, Luchessi or Michael Baez, and a competitive balance draft pick

[jacksonianmarch]

I wouldn’t finalize that deal until MLB is done with the punishment. You don’t want MLB to take that pick.

 

Also, a deal of Betts for Myers makes little sense outside of balancing salaries for 2020, as Myers is under contract for 21 and 22. If hold out for more. As it stands, the Sox aren’t getting more than 1 top 100 in Campusano. Grisham gives them a cheap MLB talent coming off a reasonable, albeit crushing WC debut. He’s got talent. Croneworth is really interesting as a speed/average hitter then as a high powered reliever. You also have to remember that Croneworth was with TB and went with Pham to SD. Bloom may know something we don’t. Lucchesi would give the Sox reliability. Wha trill is a bit more upside but higher risk.

 

That deal would give the Sox a MLb caliber 1b coming off two down years in Myers

 

A starting OFer in Grisham with upside

 

A top 100 catching prospect in Campusano

 

A MLB ready utility guy who doubles as a reliever in Croneworth

 

A big league starter either with back end reliability or back end production with blue chip potential.

 

That’s a deal to at least consider

[moonslav59]

I wouldn’t finalize that deal until MLB is done with the punishment. You don’t want MLB to take that pick.

 

Also, a deal of Betts for Myers makes little sense outside of balancing salaries for 2020, as Myers is under contract for 21 and 22. If hold out for more. As it stands, the Sox aren’t getting more than 1 top 100 in Campusano. Grisham gives them a cheap MLB talent coming off a reasonable, albeit crushing WC debut. He’s got talent. Croneworth is really interesting as a speed/average hitter then as a high powered reliever. You also have to remember that Croneworth was with TB and went with Pham to SD. Bloom may know something we don’t. Lucchesi would give the Sox reliability. Wha trill is a bit more upside but higher risk.

 

That deal would give the Sox a MLb caliber 1b coming off two down years in Myers

 

A starting OFer in Grisham with upside

 

A top 100 catching prospect in Campusano

 

A MLB ready utility guy who doubles as a reliever in Croneworth

 

A big league starter either with back end reliability or back end production with blue chip potential.

 

That’s a deal to at least consider

 

Catching prospects are the hardest to project.

 

I'd insist they take Price or Eovaldi with Betts and lower the return.

[notin]

The article suggested Myers, Grisham, Croneworth, Campusano and one of either Quantrill, Luchessi or Michael Baez, and a competitive balance draft pick

 

It’d be better if the Sox could get Gore or Patino...

[notin]

I wouldn’t finalize that deal until MLB is done with the punishment. You don’t want MLB to take that pick.

 

Also, a deal of Betts for Myers makes little sense outside of balancing salaries for 2020, as Myers is under contract for 21 and 22. If hold out for more. As it stands, the Sox aren’t getting more than 1 top 100 in Campusano. Grisham gives them a cheap MLB talent coming off a reasonable, albeit crushing WC debut. He’s got talent. Croneworth is really interesting as a speed/average hitter then as a high powered reliever. You also have to remember that Croneworth was with TB and went with Pham to SD. Bloom may know something we don’t. Lucchesi would give the Sox reliability. Wha trill is a bit more upside but higher risk.

 

That deal would give the Sox a MLb caliber 1b coming off two down years in Myers

 

A starting OFer in Grisham with upside

 

A top 100 catching prospect in Campusano

 

A MLB ready utility guy who doubles as a reliever in Croneworth

 

A big league starter either with back end reliability or back end production with blue chip potential.

 

That’s a deal to at least consider

 

I don’t think MLB is going to go confiscating acquired assets. You better hope not. The Yankees, like Boston, have already been punished once, and employed one of the named conspirators...

[moonslav59]

It’d be better if the Sox could get Gore or Patino...

 

I'd even add Duran and/or Workman to upgrade to Gore or Patino, but since Myers is paid for 3 years, they should take Eovaldi or Price..

[notin]

I'd even add Duran and/or Workman to upgrade to Gore or Patino, but since Myers is paid for 3 years, they should take Eovaldi or Price..

 

The simulator likes a trade of Betts and Price for Myers, Campusano, Cronenworth, Quantrill and Franchy Cordero.

 

 

It also like Betts and Eovaldi for Myers, Campusano, Cronenworth, Grisham, Quantrill, and Naylor (or $18mill)...

[mvp 78]

I woke up this AM and am happy that Mookie is still on the Red Sox. I think I'd do the trade if the Padres ate a majority of Myers' salary. Doesn't seem like the Padres want to do that.

[notin]

I woke up this AM and am happy that Mookie is still on the Red Sox. I think I'd do the trade if the Padres ate a majority of Myers' salary. Doesn't seem like the Padres want to do that.

 

Or took Price or Eovaldi?

[mvp 78]

Non roster invitees to ST:

 

Durran

Mata

Houk

Baldwin

Castillo

Marco

Joseph

Ockimey chance at 1b platoon?

Hildenberger

Brian Johnson

Poyner

McGrath