A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

i had him at a payroll hit of $10.3

shedding Mookies 27.5 and adding the 10.3 should put us right at the 208 number.

 

If we traded Price with Mookie, we could call up Castillo, and give him a shot without paying any taxes. Isn't this his last year?

[notin]

That's a tenuous comparison.

 

Well, the point is to remember it’s January 22nd and deals certainly happen later than today...

[moonslav59]

It ain't happening.

 

JH has now gone out of his way to assure everyone that the priority is being competitive this year.

 

If we are out of it in July, there will be a fire sale to get us under. We could even trade players in June or early July to increase the savings.

 

Cost saved, if traded at the halfway point (LUX tax $):

15.5 Price

13.5 Betts

12.8 Sale

11.0 JD

10.0 Bogey (NOT)

8.5 Eovaldi

5.5 JBJ

 

Cost saved at the 2/3 point:

10.3 Price

9.0 Betts

8.5 Sale

7.3 JD

5.7 Eovaldi

3.7 JBJ

 

According to cots, we are about $17.7M over (projected).

 

Lots of combinations to get under.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, the point is to remember it’s January 22nd and deals certainly happen later than today...

 

I realize that. And I'm quite comfortable in saying the probability of Betts being traded is remote at this point.

[notin]

If we traded Price with Mookie, we could call up Castillo, and give him a shot without paying any taxes. Isn't this his last year?

 

One somewhat awful deal that does everything for Boston is to trade Betts and Price plus $21mill for Gonsolin, Joc Pederson, and 28yo Cuban RHP Yasiel Sierra (owed $13mill through 2021 with a $6mill AAV)

 

This move would allow for an easy reset as it clears about $38 mill off the tax number.

 

It does leave the Sox exposed vs LHP with both Bradley and Pederson starting in the OF. But this is where Bloom’s plan of hoarding every available LHP shows it’s true logic...

[Bellhorn04]

If we are out of it in July, there will be a fire sale to get us under. We could even trade players in June or early July to increase the savings.

 

Cost saved, if traded at the halfway point (LUX tax $):

15.5 Price

13.5 Betts

12.8 Sale

11.0 JD

10.0 Bogey (NOT)

8.5 Eovaldi

5.5 JBJ

 

Cost saved at the 2/3 point:

10.3 Price

9.0 Betts

8.5 Sale

7.3 JD

5.7 Eovaldi

3.7 JBJ

 

According to cots, we are about $17.7M over (projected).

 

Lots of combinations to get under.

 

And Betts and JBJ are the only ones who would be true rentals.

[notin]

I realize that. And I'm quite comfortable in saying the probability of Betts being traded is remote at this point.

 

I think it always was. Trading a $27mill salary is rarely easy...

[Bellhorn04]

One somewhat awful deal that does everything for Boston is to trade Betts and Price plus $21mill for Gonsolin, Joc Pederson, and 28yo Cuban RHP Yasiel Sierra (owed $13mill through 2021 with a $6mill AAV)

 

This move would allow for an easy reset as it clears about $38 mill off the tax number.

 

It does leave the Sox exposed vs LHP with both Bradley and Pederson starting in the OF. But this is where Bloom’s plan of hoarding every available LHP shows it’s true logic...

 

Trading Mookie straight up for a prospect is the easiest way to re-set by far.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it always was. Trading a $27mill salary is rarely easy...

 

Trade simulator has him at plus $50 mill, no?

[notin]

Trading Mookie straight up for a prospect is the easiest way to re-set by far.

 

 

I agree. Or even a few prospects...

[notin]

Trade simulator has him at plus $50 mill, no?

 

That’s not his salary. His trade value is roughly his projected fWAR dollars minus his salary, with some other details (such as the draft pick comp you get from a Mookie).

 

But he will make $27mill this year, which he will get paid. In cash. After every game...

[Bellhorn04]

That’s not his salary. His trade value is roughly his projected fWAR dollars minus his salary, with some other details (such as the draft pick comp you get from a Mookie).

 

I know. Why would I think his salary is "plus $50 mill"?

[moonslav59]

I know. Why would I think his salary is "plus $50 mill"?

 

Because, in theory, his value is $77M - $27M salary.

[notin]

Because, in theory, his surplus value is $77M - $27M salary.

 

Ftfy

[Bellhorn04]

Because, in theory, his value is $77M - $27M salary.

 

I know.

[Slasher9]

Because, in theory, his value is $77M - $27M salary.

 

actually his value is $50MM - $27MM salary

unless you are predicting him to be a 10 WAR player again this season? i think 6-7 is more realistic.

[moonslav59]

actually his value is $50MM - $27MM salary

unless you are predicting him to be a 10 WAR player again this season? i think 6-7 is more realistic.

 

On the trade simulator, his value it 50 (77-27).

[Slasher9]

how about

Betts to Phila for Moniak, Seranthony, Kingery

[mvp 78]

how about

Betts to Phila for Moniak, Seranthony, Kingery

 

Sure

[notin]

how about

Betts to Phila for Moniak, Seranthony, Kingery

 

Not a bad trade. Simulator gives it a $12mill surplus advantage to Philly.

[moonslav59]

These trades were "accepted:"

 

Betts & Eovaldi to STL for Fowler, Liberatore & Z Thompson

 

Betts, Price & JBJ for Fowler, Carpenter, bader & Thompson

 

Betts & Price +$5M for Fowler, Thompson, L Thomas, J Oviedo & M Nunez (not mine)

 

to LAD

Betts, Barnes & Eovaldi for Pollock, Ruiz, Gonsolin, Stripling & Beaty

 

Betts, Price & $6M for Pollock, Gonsolin & Cartaya

 

To NYM

Eovaldi, JBJ & Walden for Familia, Lowrie, Marisnik & D Smith

 

To SDP

Price, Chavis & Walden for Yates, Margot & Myers

 

Price, Chavis & JBJ for Margot, Quantrill & Myers

 

Price & JBJ +$4M for Myers & Margot

 

 

 

[notin]

The simulator does not account for no trade clauses, like Fowler’s...

[moonslav59]

The simulator does not account for no trade clauses, like Fowler’s...

 

He might not waive it either.

[notin]

He might not waive it either.

 

St. Louis has a couple bad contracts with NTC’s they going to struggle to move. Carpenter is another...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To SDP

Price, Chavis & Walden for Yates, Margot & Myers

 

I like this one. Myers replaces Chavis as a first-base option or bat off the bench (or someone to dfa in a year); Yates is an upgrade for Walden and a good closer; Margot is a decent fourth outfielder and possible replacement for a starter. How much does it reduce payroll?

[moonslav59]

To SDP

Price, Chavis & Walden for Yates, Margot & Myers

 

I like this one. Myers replaces Chavis as a first-base option or bat off the bench (or someone to dfa in a year); Yates is an upgrade for Walden and a good closer; Margot is a decent fourth outfielder and possible replacement for a starter. How much does it reduce payroll?

 

Yates might be the deal-breaker for SD. The downside for us is the 1 year of team control

 

Yes, if Myers does not play well, we have Dalbec.

 

Margot may end up better than JBJ overall, and is a plus defender in CF. I would not count him as a 4th OF'er despite his sub .700 OPS the last 2 seasons.

 

The real plus is on the budget.

 

Myers is owed $$68.5M/3, but the LUX number is just $13.8M x 3.

Yates is owed $7.1M x 1 (same on LUX)

Margot is at $2.5M with 2 more arbs

 

Sox Totals/LUX Totals:

2020: $32.5M/ $23.4M

2021: $26.5M/ $17.3M (assuming $1M arb raise for Margot)

2022: $27.5M/ $18.3M (assuming $1M raise)

 

SD Totals: (Chavis & Walden are pre-arb- count as $1M)

2020: $33M/ $32M

2021: $33M/ $32M

2022: $33M/ $32M

 

Sox LUX savings:

2020: $8.6M

2021: $14.7M

2022: $13.7M

 

If we could trade JBJ, we'd reset, this year.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If we could trade JBJ, we'd reset, this year.

 

I figured with Margot in tow, that would be the next move...

 

Then Bloom would just have to replace Price's starts -- 22 per the last three years (via trade, opener or premature promotion)... and we're back in business -- and open for biz next winter.

[moonslav59]

To me, this deal might set us up nicely:

 

Betts, Price (+$6M) & Workman (Both Betts & Workman can be brought back as FAs after 2020)

 

for

 

Pollock (CF), Gonsolin (SP) & Cartaya (C prospect)

 

The LUX money...

 

To LA: $31M x 3 Price, $27M x 1 Betts & $3.5M x 1 Workman

$61.5M TOTAL in 2020

$31M in 2021

$31M in 2022

 

To BOS:

$12M x 4 years

We pay $2M a year x 3 years for Price

 

We save $47M in 2020, $17M in 2021, $17M in 2022 but pay $12M more in 2023.

 

[moonslav59]

Clearinghouse:

 

Betts, Eovaldi & Workman to LAD for

Gonsolin, Stripling, Cartaya & Pollock

 

Price, JBJ (Santana from LAD) to SDP for

Myers & Margot

[mvp 78]

Why do you want Myers so bad?