A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This season Boston returns the same basic group of talented regulars and starting pitchers that set that franchise record for wins just two years ago.

 

This is just plain false.

 

Yes, some additions by subtractions listed below, but look at who we replaced these guys with...

 

Missing from the 2018 roster are (listed by most PAs or IP in 2018):

PA

6. Nunez 502

8. Moreland 459

9. Holt 367

10. Leon 288

12. Swihart 207

13. HRam 195

14. Pearce 165 (very important in playoffs)

15. Kinsler 143

IP

1. Porcello 191

5. Johnson 99 (still in system- not on 40 man roster)

7. Pomeranz 74

8. Kelly 66

9. Kimbrel 62 (most high leverage)

13 Wright 54

16 Thornburg 24

 

8 out of the top 15 PA guys gone.

6 of the top 13 IP guys gone.

 

This is NOT the 2018 team, and neither was the 2019 team.

 

 

C'mon, Moon. You know I'm talking about the "talented regulars". The core is still there...

[mvp 78]

This season Boston returns the same basic group of talented regulars and starting pitchers that set that franchise record for wins just two years ago.

 

This is just plain false.

 

Yes, some additions by subtractions listed below, but look at who we replaced these guys with...

 

Missing from the 2018 roster are (listed by most PAs or IP in 2018):

PA

6. Nunez 502

8. Moreland 459

9. Holt 367

10. Leon 288

12. Swihart 207

13. HRam 195

14. Pearce 165 (very important in playoffs)

15. Kinsler 143

IP

1. Porcello 191

5. Johnson 99 (still in system- not on 40 man roster)

7. Pomeranz 74

8. Kelly 66

9. Kimbrel 62 (most high leverage)

13 Wright 54

16 Thornburg 24

 

8 out of the top 15 PA guys gone.

6 of the top 13 IP guys gone.

 

This is NOT the 2018 team, and neither was the 2019 team.

 

 

Biggest losses are Porcello and Moreland. Everything else is close enough. We'll see if CB can get a LHB 1b. Maybe they just re-sign Mitch?

[Bellhorn04]

would you say the odds are better to sign Mookie to a LTC if we reset this season?

i believe JH thinks that.

 

So how come Mookie isn't traded already?

[Slasher9]

So how come Mookie isn't traded already?

 

because JH made the mistake of stating the Red Sox mandate is to get under the LT this season. our leverage has been eviscerated and the offers received thus far are not what is warranted.

[jacksonianmarch]

because JH made the mistake of stating the Red Sox mandate is to get under the LT this season. our leverage has been eviscerated and the offers received thus far are not what is warranted.

 

Yup. that was a pretty big mistake

[harmony]

because JH made the mistake of stating the Red Sox mandate is to get under the LT this season. our leverage has been eviscerated and the offers received thus far are not what is warranted.

Even without that statement the rest of the league had reason to believe the Red Sox were motivated to get under the luxury tax threshold.

[Bellhorn04]

because JH made the mistake of stating the Red Sox mandate is to get under the LT this season. our leverage has been eviscerated and the offers received thus far are not what is warranted.

 

No, based on what Olney reported, it's because Bloom's ask was this: take Mookie and Price, give us top prospects and get no salary relief.

 

So they weren't really trying to trade him unless somebody was crazy enough to do that deal.

[mvp 78]

Even without that statement the rest of the league had reason to believe the Red Sox were motivated to get under the luxury tax threshold.

 

Agree

[mvp 78]

No, based on what Olney reported, it's because Bloom's ask was this: take Mookie and Price, give us top prospects and get no salary relief.

 

So they weren't really trying to trade him unless somebody was crazy enough to do that deal.

 

If you're the Dodgers and you really want to win this year, maybe you do the deal...

[Bellhorn04]

Even without that statement the rest of the league had reason to believe the Red Sox were motivated to get under the luxury tax threshold.

 

Of course they did. And if the Sox put Betts and/or Price on the block it's pretty obvious the two things are connected.

[notin]

If Mookie walks out that door, he's not coming back in.

 

He’s going to sign somewhere next season. And it’s going to be somewhere that pays a lot. The Sox are certainly on the short list there, and a few other teams have probably already committed enough money elsewhere that they can be easily overbid...

[notin]

If you're the Dodgers and you really want to win this year, maybe you do the deal...

 

Especially since you haven’t won anything in over 30 years and you’ve lost two of the last 3 World Series to teams currently embroiled in cheating scandals.

 

The main reason to not make it is you think you’re already good enough, since it might have taken cheating to knock you out...

[mvp 78]

He’s going to sign somewhere next season. And it’s going to be somewhere that pays a lot. The Sox are certainly on the short list there, and a few other teams have probably already committed enough money elsewhere that they can be easily overbid...

 

My concern is that this seems like the Lester situation to me and I believe if Mookie walks out the door it's because the Sox didn't want to pay his asking price in the first place.

[kenmeister]

9. Kimbrel 62 (most high leverage)

 

 

This reminds me I hadn't checked to see how Kimbrel did last year. 6.53 ERA, yikes!!!! I'm so glad he didn't stay. He turned into a pumpkin overnight.

[mvp 78]

Especially since you haven’t won anything in over 30 years and you’ve lost two of the last 3 World Series to teams currently embroiled in cheating scandals.

 

The main reason to not make it is you think you’re already good enough, since it might have taken cheating to knock you out...

 

To me, you slam the door shut by fielding the best possible team on 4/1/20. Let a few prospects go. Get that flag.

[mvp 78]

This reminds me I hadn't checked to see how Kimbrel did last year. 6.53 ERA, yikes!!!! I'm so glad he didn't stay. He turned into a pumpkin overnight.

 

I think he got screwed by losing out on his normal offseason. He should be better this year.

[notin]

I don't disagree, but I seem to be getting mixed messages from you on what you think the Sox should have done.

 

I'm all for your position of signing cheap guys to add depth, but are you for resetting or going for one last hurrah?

 

I think we both agree playing the middle ground is the worst choice. (Not that we will end up doing this all year.)

 

I’d like to see them reset or position themselves to reset while staying competitive. The big problem is trading g Price doesn’t make sense. With the reported money required to include or take back, plus the money needed to replace Price, it seems like breaking even is the most likely outcome.

 

I don’t want to trade Betts, but it does make sense in some ways, depending what comes back.

 

Trading Bradley will have minimal impact, since Billy Hamilton is available for less money. But I did have a 3 step jumping off point I liked that at least made the team competitive, although I think 2 more steps are required. Tthe one where we add Puig, Hellickson, and Lamb. A Bradley/Lamb trade does make sense for both teams, but only gets the Sox about $6mill closer to resetting. Of course to make that work, the Sox need a fourth OF since you never know if Puig will go AWOL. (I recommend Cesar Puello.). And to fit him in the roster, you need to either make a deal with a Houston to keep Arauz (if you like him) or just send him back.

[Bellhorn04]

If they don't get under $208 million before the season starts, it's pretty unlikely they can do it at the trade deadline.

 

Cot's Contracts has us at $17.6 million over right now-and theirs is the lowest projection.

 

Even trading both Mookie and JBJ at the deadline would only reduce our number by about $12.7 million.

[mvp 78]

If they don't get under $208 million before the season starts, it's pretty unlikely they can do it at the trade deadline.

 

Cot's Contracts has us at $17.6 million over right now-and theirs is the lowest projection.

 

Even trading both Mookie and JBJ at the deadline would only reduce our number by about $12.7 million.

 

Yup! Need to move them now.

[Slasher9]

trade mookie, call up rusney. reset complete. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[notin]

trade mookie, call up rusney. reset complete. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

If they trade Mookie, they can probably sign Puig for less than what Rusney makes...

[Bellhorn04]

trade mookie, call up rusney. reset complete. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

If you want a re-set, calling up Rusney is the last thing you want. He'd tack on about 12 million to the payroll for tax purposes.

[Bellhorn04]

In any case, by now it should be obvious Mookie is staying put.

[notin]

In any case, by now it should be obvious Mookie is staying put.

 

That’s what everyone thought about Kimbrel at the beginning of April, 2015...

[Slasher9]

If you want a re-set, calling up Rusney is the last thing you want. He'd tack on about 12 million to the payroll for tax purposes.

 

i had him at a payroll hit of $10.3

shedding Mookies 27.5 and adding the 10.3 should put us right at the 208 number.

[Slasher9]

If they trade Mookie, they can probably sign Puig for less than what Rusney makes...

 

i have big time injury concerns there. Rusney will answer the bell and have something to prove.

[moonslav59]

This reminds me I hadn't checked to see how Kimbrel did last year. 6.53 ERA, yikes!!!! I'm so glad he didn't stay. He turned into a pumpkin overnight.

 

Yes, but replacing what Kimbrel did in 2018 is the point.

[moonslav59]

If they don't get under $208 million before the season starts, it's pretty unlikely they can do it at the trade deadline.

 

Cot's Contracts has us at $17.6 million over right now-and theirs is the lowest projection.

 

Even trading both Mookie and JBJ at the deadline would only reduce our number by about $12.7 million.

 

Trading Mookie & Price would get us under.

 

Trading JBJ now and Mookie at the deadline would, too.

 

Trading JBJ & Eovaldi now. (We could even play some.)

[Bellhorn04]

That’s what everyone thought about Kimbrel at the beginning of April, 2015...

 

That's a tenuous comparison.

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Mookie & Price would get us under.

 

Trading JBJ now and Mookie at the deadline would, too.

 

Trading JBJ & Eovaldi now. (We could even play some.)

 

It ain't happening.

 

JH has now gone out of his way to assure everyone that the priority is being competitive this year.