A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[oldtimer]

One player getting 15% of the competitive balance Tax threshhold leaves thee remaining 39 players to split the 85% remaining. DD saddled us with several players getting significant percentages while underpferoming in their respective positions. Long contracts involve higher risks of that happening. Bloom has been tasked with rectifying the position DD put us in. Sure, we can exceed the CBT threshhold for a year or two, but that in the long run comes back to bite a team.

 

I don't think we will get Mookie Betts back if the contract requirements are what has been guessed at. I would rather keep a nucleus of competitive players and not rely on a single star.

[notin]

One player getting 15% of the competitive balance Tax threshhold leaves thee remaining 39 players to split the 85% remaining. DD saddled us with several players getting significant percentages while underpferoming in their respective positions. Long contracts involve higher risks of that happening. Bloom has been tasked with rectifying the position DD put us in. Sure, we can exceed the CBT threshhold for a year or two, but that in the long run comes back to bite a team.

 

I don't think we will get Mookie Betts back if the contract requirements are what has been guessed at. I would rather keep a nucleus of competitive players and not rely on a single star.

 

In all likelihood, Betts does not come back. There is just a chance now. If he does not, it will position the Sox to build around Devers and Bogaerts, which is not exactly the worst thing ever to happen to this team...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thanks, notin -- I certainly agree with "short-sighted" to describe my post, because that was basically my point about what I should've said was the average fan. Again, that's not us, or very many who post on forums or even reactions to online articles. I mean, where else do we hear fans wishing Pedroia would retire, just so his AAV won't count towards the lux tax?

 

Sox fans I talk to, including youngsters, don't rue Pedey's contract -- they feel sorry his knee is shot and hate Machado, and like all of us still respect the Dirtdog for always playing hard and looking like he cared almost as much as we do.

 

One young guy even told me he thinks the MLB made a secret Pedroia-rule with the players, telling them all to yell, "Let's Go!" whenever they get excited now, instead of "f*** ya!"

[notin]

Thanks, notin -- I certainly agree with "short-sighted" to describe my post, because that was basically my point about what I should've said was the average fan. Again, that's not us, or very many who post on forums or even reactions to online articles. I mean, where else do we hear fans wishing Pedroia would retire, just so his AAV won't count towards the lux tax?

 

Sox fans I talk to, including youngsters, don't rue Pedey's contract -- they feel sorry his knee is shot and hate Machado, and like all of us still respect the Dirtdog for always playing hard and looking like he cared almost as much as we do.

 

One young guy even told me he thinks the MLB made a secret Pedroia-rule with the players, telling them all to yell, "Let's Go!" whenever they get excited now, instead of "f*** ya!"

 

 

This board is a small cross section of fans, but there have been more than enough "Pedroia needs to retire" posts that the feeling definitely exists. I'd be more supportive of that attitude if Pedroia injured himself in a motorcycle accident or a skiing accident or some prohibited activity. But the man was hurt in the line of duty...

[a700hitter]

In all likelihood, Betts does not come back. There is just a chance now. If he does not, it will position the Sox to build around Devers and Bogaerts, which is not exactly the worst thing ever to happen to this team...

But we could have watched one of the All-Time great Red Sox players for another season and had a better chance of being competitive in 2020. We lose Betts for 2020 and the FO has decided to throw in the towel on the season before it starts. 2020 should be a blast. It's March 13th, pitchers and catchers are reporting and they have a gaping hole in the rotation. I guess bloom thinks he will fill that hole by rolling out one garbage can after another on the 5th day. That isn't going to work.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This board is a small cross section of fans, but there have been more than enough "Pedroia needs to retire" posts that the feeling definitely exists. I'd be more supportive of that attitude if Pedroia injured himself in a motorcycle accident or a skiing accident or some prohibited activity. But the man was hurt in the line of duty...

 

I hope most wish he retires so he won't end up crippled, and then because he can no longer help the club... As for the contract -- which totaled a lot less than his contemporary Cano got at the time -- like you said, at least his demise was honorable. It shouldn't be viewed like the Sox flushing money down the drain to pay Price to hit the road or Panda or anyone else they needed to railroad.

[mvp 78]

This board is a small cross section of fans, but there have been more than enough "Pedroia needs to retire" posts that the feeling definitely exists. I'd be more supportive of that attitude if Pedroia injured himself in a motorcycle accident or a skiing accident or some prohibited activity. But the man was hurt in the line of duty...

 

I don't think Pedroia should retire. He earned that contract. I just think the Sox should have explored trading him at some point. They didn't. He got injured. Now they are just eating the cost.

[moonslav59]

My argument since I've joined this forum is that there is absolutely no reason to think Mookie Betts won't continue to star and repeat past performances through his prime. Whichever team gets Betts for ages 27-32 should have a bargain at $35 to $40 mil per year. People can worry all they want about the second-half of the contract, but do any fans really think or care about seven years from now while their team is better and a contender with a Hall of Famer for the next half dozen seasons?

 

I saw some Aaron wrists in Betts' swing from his rookie year, and I do think comparisons are fair thus far in their careers, as the bb-ref all-time rankings show:

 

Greatest Career WAR Ages 21-26 RF (min. 500 games):

1. Mookie Betts 42.0

2. Hank Aaron 37.4

 

One factor that will determine Betts' power numbers obviously is his new home ballpark. Aaron became more of a pull hitter to take advantage of the Braves moving to "the Launching Pad" in Atlanta, while Mays had no choice but to adjust to an opposite-field swing because winds blowing off the bay at crappy Candlestick Park robbed his longballing.

 

Detractors can predict that Mookie won't hit as many homers without Fenway and Camden Yards to aim at, but balls carry farther in places like Colorado and Arizona. We shall see; the youngest batter to have five 3-HR games in MLB history isn't done yet.

 

It's hard to project how any player will age. People keep talking about how smaller, quick players age poorly, and maybe that's true, but where's the evidence. Plus how many of those quick, smaller players had the twitch times Betts has- reportedly off the charts good and the power he has?

 

He's unique, so he's hard to project.

 

I love his attitude. His drive to excel. His ability to adjust to a new position and become the best in a matter of days not years. His 5 tool brilliance.

 

To me, he's likely worth $60-75M a year for the next 5-6 years- maybe not free agent market-wise but actual value to a team. If he makes $35-40M a year on a long term deal, the team makes $25-50M a year for 5-6 years. That would more than make up for the back end 5-6 years, where he may be worth near to well below the $35-40M/yr. I realize this is pure conjecture, and it's just my opinion, but those 5-6 years would be worth it.

 

I know I could be wrong. Although I knew the Price deal was too much and for too long, I thought he'd earn it the first 3-4 years- enough to offset the final 3-4 years, and if he declined too quickly, we could trade him to cut some of our losses. I was not an enthusiastic fan of the signing, but I thought it was necessary. It turns out I was wrong, even though he did help us win a ring, I was wrong. I could be wrong about Betts, too. I don't think I am.

 

I want to watch Betts play in Boston from ages 28-37+.

 

[moonslav59]

Don’t make stupid arguments like this. Dustin Pedroia took a hometown discount and fans STILL think he needs to retire so the team an access his salary, which is about ONE THIRD of Betts’ reported asking price...

 

Injuries can and do often enough to make anyone hesitant to make any deal like Betts will likely get.

 

Most truly special players seem to age well, unless an injury causes decline or a premature end to their career. Signing Betts to a 9-12 year deal and watching him get hurt or decline sharply would be horrific and a big drag on a long period of Sox history. It's a huge gamble on just one guy, and although I did say, if we were ever going to sign a pitcher to $31M x 7 years, Price was the guy, I never felt this strongly about Price as I do about Betts. Betts is the best Sox player I have ever seen- not even close.

 

Watching him continue his greatness for another team will hurt like hell. IMO, he will earn $420/12.

[OH FOY]

Here's a realistic view for 2020. Betts is not here anymore.

[moonslav59]

Fans really are totally into the present.

 

If you go through last year's game threads I don't think you'll find many comments about how great it is watching Mookie play. What you'll find is mostly nonstop griping about how bad the team is playing.

 

I think I'm one of the few fans that are more about the long term. I loved Ben's approach, criticized DD's "win now" approach and was all for trading Betts and Price to reset and hasten the rebuild and rise to the top. It's my belief, and I realize it's just speculation and appear to be in a minority here, that Betts will age well. He may not be great from ages 35-39, but he won't be big drain either.

 

My suggestion to greatly front end load the deal would give some insurance in case we need to make a Price dump-like trade with Mookie later in his career, if needed. It's not full insurance, I know, but if Betts does like I think he will the next 5-6 years, it will more than offset any drag the end of his career might place upon us.

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

And it wasn't a hometown discount at the time. He was the first 2b to ever get a 100M contract.

[moonslav59]

Well, I called the argument stupid. I’ll cop to that being too harsh, but it is being short-sighted. I apologize, and don’t think you or your opinions are stupid. It's not my job to tell you what offends you; it'a my job to respect those limits.

 

Now criticizing and disagreeing with that viewpoint is fair (and should be done with more courtesy). As fans, we have the luxury of saying “let’s worry about 202x when it gets here and not one second before.” As a GM, Bloom does not have that luxury. We will always be looking at this from a different viewpoint. And we don’t really even always fully understand his. If Bloom every read my posts -any of them - his first thought might be “what a f***ing bonehead. Does he even remotely understand my job?” And let’s face it, that response is infinitely more likely than him ever saying “hey, this guy gets it and has a great understanding of what I need to do.”

 

But on your post, I do think it is short-sighted. And Pedroia, who arguably was on a Hall of Fame track himself - is a prime example of how little fans appreciate what a player has done and why he got that contract in the first place when said player becomes a financial hamstring blocking upgrades in other areas.

 

The Sox hopefully get Mookie back. My guess is, without the reset and without dumping half of Price, there was zero chance of this happening. However, with both of those accomplished, the chances of signing Mookie to a lengthy, overpaid contract went from 0% to some number greater than 0. In short, they improved. And hopefully more than marginally...

 

So, you want us to be the highest bidder next winter (within limits)?

 

I'm getting mixed messages.

 

What is the most you'd pay him?

 

What do you think he may get (top end estimate)?

[moonslav59]

Who aside from DD is ignoring the future?

 

Several fans wildly applauded nearly every move DD made and explained away the future with vague statements like "we'll build the farm back up, like always."

 

Several denied the day of reckoning (or "cliff) would ever happen.

[moonslav59]

In all likelihood, Betts does not come back. There is just a chance now. If he does not, it will position the Sox to build around Devers and Bogaerts, which is not exactly the worst thing ever to happen to this team...

 

True, and if the bidding on Betts gets way out of hand, the money we prepared to pay him for can be used elsewhere to help us get back to the top. I won't be crushed, if we lose Betts for good, but I think we need to go pretty large and long to try to get him back.

[moonslav59]

Here's a realistic view for 2020. Betts is not here anymore.

 

"Anymore" sounds too permanent. I'm not giving up hope on a reunion, until he signs the long term deal with someone else.

[mvp 78]

Several fans wildly applauded nearly every move DD made and explained away the future with vague statements like "we'll build the farm back up, like always."

 

Several denied the day of reckoning (or "cliff) would ever happen.

 

The cliff didn't need to happen. He should have won the WS in 2018 and then moved Price and not signed Eovaldi last year.

[Slasher9]

What is the most you'd pay him?

 

What do you think he may get (top end estimate)?

 

50 dollars more then the highest bidder (i always like putting the players number at the end of the figure).

 

12 / $400,000,050

[moonslav59]

The cliff didn't need to happen. He should have won the WS in 2018 and then moved Price and not signed Eovaldi last year.

 

So everything was fine up until the 2018 decisions not to trade Price and to sign Eovaldi? (BTW, Eovalid was signed as part of the whole "win now at the expense of the future" philosophy DD has followed for a long time.)

 

Our farm was crap and even though it improved a little with the Betts-Price deal, our future is not really brightened by our projected input from our farm.

 

The Eovaldi deal fell apart quickly. The Price deal was know to be worrisome towards the end of his deal. There were a lot of other deals that severely mortgaged the future for the here and now (2-4 year window).

 

I'm glad we won the ring in 2018. I'd have a totally different attitude, right now, had we not. But, I knew all along we'd come to a point like we are today. Maybe it won't be a "cliff," but it certainly isn't pretty, right now. All those deals combined contributed to where we are today. It's easy to blame it all on one or two "take-back" what ifs, but the day of reckoning is upon us.

 

Let's hope it does not last long, and IMO the Betts-Price deal was the first move we've made in years that improves the long term outlook. We've made a step in the right direction and may need more like it to hasten the comeback to serious competitiveness.

[mvp 78]

So everything was fine up until the 2018 decisions not to trade Price and to sign Eovaldi?

 

They made a few bad trades, but could have easily gotten under the cap last year.

[moonslav59]

They made a few bad trades, but could have easily gotten under the cap last year.

 

By not signing Eovaldi, trading Price and not replacing them?

 

We'd have had a cliff season in 2019, although some kinds think it was anyways.

 

Blow up a championship team right away?

 

Sure, in hindsight, great idea. The Eovaldi-Price ideas llok great, but we'd have spent big to replace them and not reset.

[mvp 78]

By not signing Eovaldi, trading Price and not replacing them?

 

We'd have had a cliff season in 2019, although some kinds think it was anyways.

 

Blow up a championship team right away?

 

Sure, in hindsight, great idea. The Eovaldi-Price ideas llok great, but we'd have spent big to replace them and not reset.

 

But they'd still have a top 3 player on the roster.

[notin]

But they'd still have a top 3 player on the roster.

 

Talk to Dombrowski. not sure why he was so unaware that Betts was going to be costly. Or maybe he just didn't care because he planned to ride the current team to (hopefully) two more titles before it all fell apart...

[mvp 78]

Talk to Dombrowski. not sure why he was so unaware that Betts was going to be costly. Or maybe he just didn't care because he planned to ride the current team to (hopefully) two more titles before it all fell apart...

 

He was definitely Ride or Die with the roster. Spoiler alert: he dead.

[Bellhorn04]

Talk to Dombrowski. not sure why he was so unaware that Betts was going to be costly. Or maybe he just didn't care because he planned to ride the current team to (hopefully) two more titles before it all fell apart...

 

But Dombrowski really has nothing to do with whether or not we'll be signing Mookie long-term.

[moonslav59]

But they'd still have a top 3 player on the roster.

 

With no wiggle room on the budget to add more and still a crappy farm.

[mvp 78]

With no wiggle room on the budget to add more and still a crappy farm.

 

Draft better. Trade some relievers and other guys. You can get decent prospects with lesser deals (i.e. Miller for ERod).

[moonslav59]

But Dombrowski really has nothing to do with whether or not we'll be signing Mookie long-term.

 

The Sox have always been known to set a price and stick to it, so you are probably right, but had our budget not been so high it might have made it easier to offer slightly more than our "final offer" if it meant getting Betts.

 

Just speculation, here.

[moonslav59]

Draft better. Trade some relievers and other guys. You can get decent prospects with lesser deals (i.e. Miller for ERod).

 

Now, you supposing much more than just Eovaldi and Price, and you assumed we could trade Price alone after 2018.

 

"Draft better?" We've had crappy picks, penalties and low IFA bonus pools.

[mvp 78]

Now, you supposing much more than just Eovaldi and Price, and you assumed we could trade Price alone after 2018.

 

"Draft better?" We've had crappy picks, penalties and low IFA bonus pools.

 

1. Yes.

2. Yes.