A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Kimmi]

I hope so.

 

I really hope not. We would soon enough rue the day we signed Mookie to a mega deal.

[moonslav59]

There are some who want to trade Jackie, just for the sake of having him off the team. They don't like his 'light bat'.

 

Now that we have Pillar, trading Jackie to upgrade the pitching makes some sense, although I don't think that Jackie being traded is a foregone conclusion.

 

I don't either, and I've been one of his biggest supporters from the (horrible) start.

 

We have serious pitching needs and may need more cap space than we have.

[moonslav59]

I really hope not. We would soon enough rue the day we signed Mookie to a mega deal.

 

I'm not sure about "soon," but likely at some point near his mid thirties.

 

After 5 years, he'll only be 32- the same age as JD, and nobody wants him gone anytime "soon."

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure about "soon," but likely at some point near his mid thirties.

 

After 5 years, he'll only be 32- the same age as JD, and nobody wants him gone anytime "soon."

 

Mookie will turn 28 by the end of this season.

 

So he'll turn 33 in the 5th year of his new deal.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Does anyone see Bryan Mata as a dark horse to make the Squad out of camp ?

[moonslav59]

Mookie will turn 28 by the end of this season.

 

So he'll turn 33 in the 5th year of his new deal.

 

Okay, he'll be 32 until October 7th. I'll call it 32.

 

I actually think he'll be fine from 33-35 or 36, too and maybe decent for a few years more.

[moonslav59]

Does anyone see Bryan Mata as a dark horse to make the Squad out of camp ?

 

No. Even if he looks good.

[notin]

Okay, he'll be 32 until October 7th. I'll call it 32.

 

I actually think he'll be fine from 33-35 or 36, too and maybe decent for a few years more.

 

Unless an injury just makes him completely fall off a cliff performance-wise at a relatively young age, like Grady Sizemore...

[moonslav59]

Unless an injury just makes him completely fall off a cliff performance-wise at a relatively young age, like Grady Sizemore...

 

Of course, the risk is great. I just don't see Betts substantially declining as quickly as many seem to think he will.

 

He will lose value as his speed declines, but he has power and quick wrists, like Henry Aaron.

[mvp 78]

Does anyone see Bryan Mata as a dark horse to make the Squad out of camp ?

 

Nope.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course, the risk is great. I just don't see Betts substantially declining as quickly as many seem to think he will.

 

He will lose value as his speed declines, but he has power and quick wrists, like Henry Aaron.

 

If Mookie stays healthy he certainly has a chance of aging well.

[Bellhorn04]

One thing I wonder about Mookie's career is whether his hitting will live up to what people expect with his contract.

 

I was looking at his home/road splits vs. Trout's.

 

Mookie .930 home/.858 road

Trout 1.000 home/1.000 road (how's that for round numbers and consistency.)

 

Trout's road OPS is a whopping 142 points higher.

[moonslav59]

One thing I wonder about Mookie's career is whether his hitting will live up to what people expect with his contract.

 

I was looking at his home/road splits vs. Trout's.

 

Mookie .930 home/.858 road

Trout 1.000 home/1.000 road (how's that for round numbers and consistency.)

 

Trout's road OPS is a whopping 142 points higher.

 

.858 is pretty good, but point well taken.

 

Someone else mentioned the comp to Aaron, and of course, there's only one Hammerin' Hank, but I think there are a lot of similarities.

 

Hank won 3 GGs early on, stole over 20 bases 6 times and had power, too. His first 5 full seasons, he hit 27, 26, 44, 30 and 39 HRs (ending at age 25).

 

Starting at age 32 he hit 44, 39, 29, 44, 38, 47, 34, 40 (465 PA at age 39), 20 (382 at age 40 .832 OPS) and 12 at age 41 (543 PAs).

 

His OPS never dipped below.852 from age 21 to 39, when he hit .832. More amazingly, he only hit under .900 twice in that period: .895 at age 32 .852 at age 34.

 

In no way am I trying to say Betts might duplicate Hank's career, but Hank showed it can be done. His body proportions changed over his career, but his power actually improved at age 32:

24-31: 288 HRs in 5346 PAs/4786 ABs .962 OPS

32-39: 315 HRs in 4853 PAs/4208 ABs .954 OPS

 

First 12 years: 398 HRs .943 OPS in 7855 PAs

Last 11 years: 357 HRs .909 OPS in 6086 PAs

 

Betts is way below Hank in HRs by age 26. Betts has 31, 24, 32 and 29 his last 4 years. He has 116 HRs over the last 4 years (2762 PAs) and a .917 OPS.

 

He will almost certainly not come close to Hank's numbers, but he may have a long career with little loss of power, if not an increase in power.

[Hitch]

Comparing to older players is fun, but ultimately useless, I think.

 

The game has moved on. The athleticism involved now, the speed, the science behind getting athletes at their peak performance, it's a different beast. When you start losing the edge you have through speed and fast hands (which are Mookie's gifts), the science will push the game on and there's a good chance the game will pass you by somewhat.

 

I don't think he will age well. I hope for his sake I'm wrong, but I think he will become a solid player, rather than the magician we have seen the last two or more years.

 

The real shame is that $200 x 8 offer at the end of 2017 didn't get it done. Even if we'd gone to $250/260, we'd have gotten his best years locked in, and not had the money to make the mistake we made on Evoaldi and probably wouldn't have extended Sale as early as we did.

 

This is why projecting contracts and situations we could find ourselves in going forward is so difficult. There's a sliding doors moment around every corner.

[Hitch]

Or by paying Mookie $18 mil a year for 5 years to play for another team so that we can clear some money off the books.

 

Preach it sister!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My argument since I've joined this forum is that there is absolutely no reason to think Mookie Betts won't continue to star and repeat past performances through his prime. Whichever team gets Betts for ages 27-32 should have a bargain at $35 to $40 mil per year. People can worry all they want about the second-half of the contract, but do any fans really think or care about seven years from now while their team is better and a contender with a Hall of Famer for the next half dozen seasons?

 

I saw some Aaron wrists in Betts' swing from his rookie year, and I do think comparisons are fair thus far in their careers, as the bb-ref all-time rankings show:

 

Greatest Career WAR Ages 21-26 RF (min. 500 games):

1. Mookie Betts 42.0

2. Hank Aaron 37.4

 

One factor that will determine Betts' power numbers obviously is his new home ballpark. Aaron became more of a pull hitter to take advantage of the Braves moving to "the Launching Pad" in Atlanta, while Mays had no choice but to adjust to an opposite-field swing because winds blowing off the bay at crappy Candlestick Park robbed his longballing.

 

Detractors can predict that Mookie won't hit as many homers without Fenway and Camden Yards to aim at, but balls carry farther in places like Colorado and Arizona. We shall see; the youngest batter to have five 3-HR games in MLB history isn't done yet.

[notin]

My argument since I've joined this forum is that there is absolutely no reason to think Mookie Betts won't continue to star and repeat past performances through his prime. Whichever team gets Betts for ages 27-32 should have a bargain at $35 to $40 mil per year. People can worry all they want about the second-half of the contract, but do any fans really think or care about seven years from now while their team is better and a contender with a Hall of Famer for the next half dozen seasons?

 

I saw some Aaron wrists in Betts' swing from his rookie year, and I do think comparisons are fair thus far in their careers, as the bb-ref all-time rankings show:

 

Greatest Career WAR Ages 21-26 RF (min. 500 games):

1. Mookie Betts 42.0

2. Hank Aaron 37.4

 

One factor that will determine Betts' power numbers obviously is his new home ballpark. Aaron became more of a pull hitter to take advantage of the Braves moving to "the Launching Pad" in Atlanta, while Mays had no choice but to adjust to an opposite-field swing because winds blowing off the bay at crappy Candlestick Park robbed his longballing.

 

Detractors can predict that Mookie won't hit as many homers without Fenway and Camden Yards to aim at, but balls carry farther in places like Colorado and Arizona. We shall see; the youngest batter to have five 3-HR games in MLB history isn't done yet.

 

Don’t make stupid arguments like this. Dustin Pedroia took a hometown discount and fans STILL think he needs to retire so the team an access his salary, which is about ONE THIRD of Betts’ reported asking price...

[notin]

Not to mention the whole “WE WOULD GET TO WATCH A HALL OF FAMER!” argument just proves any point that fans are solely into the present and quickly forget the past and believe the future needs to be ignored until it gets here.

 

Is this supposed to be a novelty? The Sox had Hall of Farmers in left field for 50 STRAIGHT SEASONS! We’ve seen them.

 

Also, those 50 years resulted in zero titles...

[Bellhorn04]

Detractors can predict that Mookie won't hit as many homers without Fenway and Camden Yards to aim at, but balls carry farther in places like Colorado and Arizona. We shall see; the youngest batter to have five 3-HR games in MLB history isn't done yet.

 

Mookie has hit more homers on the road than at Fenway.

 

It's his doubles that go way down on the road - 94 vs. 135 at Fenway.

 

It's not my intention to be a detractor, just to take a hard look at his numbers as he stands on the brink of an enormous payday.

[Bellhorn04]

Not to mention the whole “WE WOULD GET TO WATCH A HALL OF FAMER!” argument just proves any point that fans are solely into the present and quickly forget the past and believe the future needs to be ignored until it gets here.

 

Is this supposed to be a novelty? The Sox had Hall of Farmers in left field for 50 STRAIGHT SEASONS! We’ve seen them.

 

Also, those 50 years resulted in zero titles...

 

Fans really are totally into the present.

 

If you go through last year's game threads I don't think you'll find many comments about how great it is watching Mookie play. What you'll find is mostly nonstop griping about how bad the team is playing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is it stupid to call someone's opinion stupid, especially if you're one of the fans who's already admitted he prefers to watch contenders every year... or to look beyond the fanatics who post here every day and just consider the average baseball fan who is not worried about 2027 or even 2021?

 

Teams that want to win need and want great players, and fans naturally want to watch both, because they are connected. It's not hoop, where it's easier for one superstar to dominate the court, but World Series winners are usually led to the postseason by great performers, MVP and Cy Young types. I'm sure you can find examples of groups of pretty good guys who won, like the '15 Royals, but it doesn't take much research or even memory banks to list more playoff winners who were led by stars.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mookie has hit more homers on the road than at Fenway.

 

It's his doubles that go way down on the road - 94 vs. 135 at Fenway.

 

It's not my intention to be a detractor, just to take a hard look at his numbers as he stands on the brink of an enormous payday.

 

Good stats. I've thought about the doubles. It didn't seem like Mookie hit many Fenway Wall-scraper pop-ups that he legged out for two-baggers compared to rising liners. His xbh totals may be ok if he finds more gaps in the more spacious NL West parks.

[Slasher9]

Is it stupid to call someone's opinion stupid,

 

i agree. i have a feeling notin didnt mean it as harsh as it came across typed but he can address that.

 

as for stars leading to parades...when it comes to position players i will politely disagree. in fact, i am on record stating that the 2018 Boston Red Sox would still have had a parade if Mookie Betts didn't even exist.

[Hitch]

Not to mention the whole “WE WOULD GET TO WATCH A HALL OF FAMER!” argument just proves any point that fans are solely into the present and quickly forget the past and believe the future needs to be ignored until it gets here.

 

Is this supposed to be a novelty? The Sox had Hall of Farmers in left field for 50 STRAIGHT SEASONS! We’ve seen them.

 

Also, those 50 years resulted in zero titles...

 

Much love for this post.

[mvp 78]

The idea that fans shouldn't complain about the present isn't a very compelling argument IMO.

[notin]

Is it stupid to call someone's opinion stupid, especially if you're one of the fans who's already admitted he prefers to watch contenders every year... or to look beyond the fanatics who post here every day and just consider the average baseball fan who is not worried about 2027 or even 2021?

 

Teams that want to win need and want great players, and fans naturally want to watch both, because they are connected. It's not hoop, where it's easier for one superstar to dominate the court, but World Series winners are usually led to the postseason by great performers, MVP and Cy Young types. I'm sure you can find examples of groups of pretty good guys who won, like the '15 Royals, but it doesn't take much research or even memory banks to list more playoff winners who were led by stars.

 

 

Well, I called the argument stupid. I’ll cop to that being too harsh, but it is being short-sighted. I apologize, and don’t think you or your opinions are stupid. It's not my job to tell you what offends you; it'a my job to respect those limits.

 

Now criticizing and disagreeing with that viewpoint is fair (and should be done with more courtesy). As fans, we have the luxury of saying “let’s worry about 202x when it gets here and not one second before.” As a GM, Bloom does not have that luxury. We will always be looking at this from a different viewpoint. And we don’t really even always fully understand his. If Bloom every read my posts -any of them - his first thought might be “what a f***ing bonehead. Does he even remotely understand my job?” And let’s face it, that response is infinitely more likely than him ever saying “hey, this guy gets it and has a great understanding of what I need to do.”

 

But on your post, I do think it is short-sighted. And Pedroia, who arguably was on a Hall of Fame track himself - is a prime example of how little fans appreciate what a player has done and why he got that contract in the first place when said player becomes a financial hamstring blocking upgrades in other areas.

 

The Sox hopefully get Mookie back. My guess is, without the reset and without dumping half of Price, there was zero chance of this happening. However, with both of those accomplished, the chances of signing Mookie to a lengthy, overpaid contract went from 0% to some number greater than 0. In short, they improved. And hopefully more than marginally...

Edited February 13, 2020 by notin

[notin]

The idea that fans shouldn't complain about the present isn't a very compelling argument IMO.

 

Complaining about the present is fine. Thinking the remedy is to completely ignore the future is unrealistic. Common, but unrealistic...

[mvp 78]

Complaining about the present is fine. Thinking the remedy is to completely ignore the future is unrealistic. Common, but unrealistic...

 

Who aside from DD is ignoring the future?

[notin]

Who aside from DD is ignoring the future?

 

Usually fans, especially if the statement fro 5Gold, if I am interpreting it correctly, says "People can worry all they want about the second-half of the contract, but do any fans really think or care about seven years from now while their team is better and a contender with a Hall of Famer for the next half dozen seasons[/I]?"

 

Yes. if I'm still alive, I plan to be a fn in 2027 as well, and like most of us who were fans before 2004, I won't let a poorly performing team change that. But I'd rather the team took measures to position themselves to not perform poorly in any of those seasons...

[notin]

i agree. i have a feeling notin didnt mean it as harsh as it came across typed but he can address that.

 

as for stars leading to parades...when it comes to position players i will politely disagree. in fact, i am on record stating that the 2018 Boston Red Sox would still have had a parade if Mookie Betts didn't even exist[/I].

 

And you are one who typically believes "pitching equals parades." I believe that is a direct quote from you. And absolutely has some merit.

 

As for this year's Red Sox team, I don't think losing Mookie will be what keeps them out of the post-season. Last year, they were a top 3 (runs scored) or top 4 team (fwAR) in offense, depenind on which metric you prefer. In both cases, they were the highest ranked team to not make the post-season.

 

Pitching was another matter. They were closer to the middle of the pack in just about every metric. Pitching really was why they did not play in October.

 

Right now, the real big problem is, their pitching is probably worse. Their biggest addition (Perez) has never been as good as their biggest subtraction (Price). The bullpen, maligned as it was, appears to only be adding a rookie who puts the "wild" in "wild card." There was a modest farm upgrade, but so far no one has really been moved to address these areas. The Sox have added a few questionable middle infielders (Pereza, Arauz) to supplement their incumbent questionable middle infielders (Chavis, Lin, Hernandez), and done some bench patchwork. These are nice upgrades, but the team finished 12 games behind the second wild card team. Also, the Bloom has loaded the back end of the 40 man roster with fringy relief pitchers discarded by other teams. Obviously he sees something in a few of them that I don't. But I doubt it's 12 more wins...