A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

1. Yes.

2. Yes.

 

Come on. Be serious. We actually did pretty well with the draft picks we had. Expecting to strike gold with bad picks and blaming our position now on that is kinda weak.

 

The IFA signings have sucked compared to the Theo and Ben years.

[mvp 78]

Also, it's the FO's fault that they lost the International $$$ in the first place. I can't feel sorry for them. That's the bed Henry made. Seems like a culture issue to me.

 

1. Kick an employee on their way out the door.

2. Skirt rules to gain an advantage even when advised that you could be punished.

3. Constantly talking in circles and blowing with wind of public opinion.

4. Nickle and dime your fans for 1-2% of your company's valuation.

5. When you're backed into the corner, blame somebody else.

[mvp 78]

Come on. Be serious. We actually did pretty well with the draft picks we had. Expecting to strike gold with bad picks and blaming our position now on that is kinda weak.

 

The IFA signings have sucked compared to the Theo and Ben years.

 

Disagree about the draft picks.

[a700hitter]

Also, it's the FO's fault that they lost the International $$$ in the first place. I can't feel sorry for them. That's the bed Henry made. Seems like a culture issue to me.

 

1. Kick an employee on their way out the door.

2. Skirt rules to gain an advantage even when advised that you could be punished.

3. Constantly talking in circles and blowing with wind of public opinion.

4. Nickle and dime your fans for 1-2% of your company's valuation.

5. When you're backed into the corner, blame somebody else.

I think the organization is very confused about their culture right now. Lately, the behavior of the organization has been inconsistent and erratic.

[mvp 78]

I think the organization is very confused about their culture right now. Lately, the behavior of the organization has been inconsistent and erratic.

 

It's been pretty consistently horrible since 2011 IMO.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

The Red Sox won the arbitration case against Eduardo Rodriguez. He gets $8.3M salary.

 

Congrats Henry!

[moonslav59]

Disagree about the draft picks.

 

Even if we did better, expecting greatness with those picks is asking a lot.

 

The best pick DD had was year 1, and it was the 12th pick. We can haggle about Groome all we want, and if you want to say DD should have known he'd get hurt, fine. You won't convince me it was a bad pick, except in hindsight. That draft also got us Chatham at 51, Shaun Anderson at 88 (traded for Nunez), Dalbec at 118 and Shawryn at 148. No way can you say that was a very bad draft. Maybe not great, but not bad.

 

The 2017 draft had us picking 24th. Expecting greatness with those picks is unrealistic. We drafted Houck 24, Brannen 63, Netzer 101 & Scherff 161. I'm not going to pretend we did well, here, but with those picks it's hard to say we did badly.

 

The 2018 draft had us pick 26th. We got Casas- a top 80 prospect. Later we got Decker 64, Feltman 100, Cottam 130, Ward 160 & Duran 220. This was a very good draft, if not excellent, for picking so low.

 

The 2019 draft was the penalized draft for going over the max line. We picked 43rd. Expecting anything from this draft was a pipe dream. Nevertheless, we seemed to get some promising players: Cannon 43, Lugo 69, Zeferjahn 107, Song 137 & Murphy 197.

 

All in all, I still believe we did better than expected with the picks we had. Had Groome not gotten hurt and did well, there would be no question we did better than we should have.

 

The IFA market got us Mata, Jimenez, Velazquez, Aldo Ramirez, Brian Bello and Antoni Flores, Ceddanne Rafaela, Pedro Castellanos, Jorge Rodriguez, Chih-Jung Liu & Jonathan Arauz (rule 5)-- all current top 27 Sox prospects on soxprospects.com.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to convince anyone our farm is great. Adding Downs and Wong helped (thanks Bloom), but it's better than I thought it would be after trading away just about everyone and getting such poor picks and low IFA bonus pools.

[notin]

Some free agents who still (modestly) appeal to me

 

Brian Dozier.

Clay Buchholz (minor league deal only)

Jeremy Hellickson

Collin McHugh

Arodys Vizcaino

Tony Cingrani

 

Not much in the way of impact players except maybe Dozier, unless Vizcaino is actually healthy for once...

[kenmeister]

Some free agents who still (modestly) appeal to me

 

Brian Dozier.

Clay Buchholz (minor league deal only)

Jeremy Hellickson

Collin McHugh

Arodys Vizcaino

Tony Cingrani

 

Not much in the way of impact players except maybe Dozier, unless Vizcaino is actually healthy for once...

 

I think Andrew Cashner is still available right? Didn't he do well for us once he moved to the pen?

[notin]

I think Andrew Cashner is still available right? Didn't he do well for us once he moved to the pen?

 

Yeah I was on the fence with him...

[harmony]

I think Andrew Cashner is still available right? Didn't he do well for us once he moved to the pen?

In 19 relief appearances with the Red Sox last year, Andrew Cashner posted an ERA of 3.86 in 23.1 innings with 12 walks and 21 strikeouts, holding opponents to a .210/.309/.358/.667 line:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=cashnan01&t=p&year=2019

[Larry Cook]

Even if we did better, expecting greatness with those picks is asking a lot.

 

The best pick DD had was year 1, and it was the 12th pick. We can haggle about Groome all we want, and if you want to say DD should have known he'd get hurt, fine. You won't convince me it was a bad pick, except in hindsight. That draft also got us Chatham at 51, Shaun Anderson at 88 (traded for Nunez), Dalbec at 118 and Shawryn at 148. No way can you say that was a very bad draft. Maybe not great, but not bad.

 

The 2017 draft had us picking 24th. Expecting greatness with those picks is unrealistic. We drafted Houck 24, Brannen 63, Netzer 101 & Scherff 161. I'm not going to pretend we did well, here, but with those picks it's hard to say we did badly.

 

The 2018 draft had us pick 26th. We got Casas- a top 80 prospect. Later we got Decker 64, Feltman 100, Cottam 130, Ward 160 & Duran 220. This was a very good draft, if not excellent, for picking so low.

 

The 2019 draft was the penalized draft for going over the max line. We picked 43rd. Expecting anything from this draft was a pipe dream. Nevertheless, we seemed to get some promising players: Cannon 43, Lugo 69, Zeferjahn 107, Song 137 & Murphy 197.

 

All in all, I still believe we did better than expected with the picks we had. Had Groome not gotten hurt and did well, there would be no question we did better than we should have.

 

The IFA market got us Mata, Jimenez, Velazquez, Aldo Ramirez, Brian Bello and Antoni Flores, Ceddanne Rafaela, Pedro Castellanos, Jorge Rodriguez, Chih-Jung Liu & Jonathan Arauz (rule 5)-- all current top 27 Sox prospects on soxprospects.com.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to convince anyone our farm is great. Adding Downs and Wong helped (thanks Bloom), but it's better than I thought it would be after trading away just about everyone and getting such poor picks and low IFA bonus pools.

 

Lugo could turn out to be a mini Betts kind of steal.

[Jasonbay44]

Some free agents who still (modestly) appeal to me

 

Brian Dozier.

Clay Buchholz (minor league deal only)

Jeremy Hellickson

Collin McHugh

Arodys Vizcaino

Tony Cingrani

 

Not much in the way of impact players except maybe Dozier, unless Vizcaino is actually healthy for once...

I'd take a shot on Dozier and Vizcaino.

[notin]

I'd take a shot on Dozier and Vizcaino.

 

I'd give minor league contracts to Hellickson and Buchholz.

 

If McHugh is healthy, he's worth an MLB contract. Hellickson might be as well. On the fence there...

[notin]

In 19 relief appearances with the Red Sox last year, Andrew Cashner posted an ERA of 3.86 in 23.1 innings with 12 walks and 21 strikeouts, holding opponents to a .210/.309/.358/.667 line:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=cashnan01&t=p&year=2019

 

ACtually I would take that in th bullpen. I wouldn't get too excited about Cashner in the rotation, however...

[notin]

Some free agents who still (modestly) appeal to me

 

Brian Dozier.

Clay Buchholz (minor league deal only)

Jeremy Hellickson

Collin McHugh

Arodys Vizcaino

Tony Cingrani

 

Not much in the way of impact players except maybe Dozier, unless Vizcaino is actually healthy for once...

 

I'm on the short list that is intrigued by Yasiel Puig. But I think we can all agree he isn't very likely anyway...

[mvp 78]

I'd give minor league contracts to Hellickson and Buchholz.

 

If McHugh is healthy, he's worth an MLB contract. Hellickson might be as well. On the fence there...

 

Especially since there aren’t starters in AAA you’d be hindering the development of.

[notin]

Especially since there aren’t starters in AAA you’d be hindering the development of.

 

Exactly. Unless you’re worried about the progress of Mike Kickham...

[moonslav59]

For some reason, we seem to come up short on minor league deals, especially for SP'ers.

[mvp 78]

Exactly. Unless you’re worried about the progress of Mike Kickham...

 

Aside from Hart and Houlk, that rotation is abysmal.

[notin]

For some reason, we seem to come up short on minor league deals, especially for SP'ers.

 

Epstein used to hand them out like he was working a corner on the Vegas Strip. Dombrowski didn’t seem to care about minor leaguers or depth...

[Bellhorn04]

Epstein used to hand them out like he was working a corner on the Vegas Strip. Dombrowski didn’t seem to care about minor leaguers or depth...

 

Either way, they never seem to pan out.

[moonslav59]

Epstein used to hand them out like he was working a corner on the Vegas Strip. Dombrowski didn’t seem to care about minor leaguers or depth...

 

They hardly ever work our for us, and the ones that do are usually remembered as doing better than they actually did.

(some not signed in the winter)

'19 Andrew Cashner 2-5 6.20

'12 Aaron Cook 4-11 5.05

'17 Doug Fister 5-7 4.71

[mvp 78]

They hardly ever work our for us, and the ones that do are usually remembered as doing better than they actually did.

(some not signed in the winter)

'19 Andrew Cashner 2-5 6.20

'12 Aaron Cook 4-11 5.05

'17 Doug Fister 5-7 4.71

 

Nobody thinks fondly of Aaron Cook.

[notin]

They hardly ever work our for us, and the ones that do are usually remembered as doing better than they actually did.

(some not signed in the winter)

'19 Andrew Cashner 2-5 6.20

'12 Aaron Cook 4-11 5.05

'17 Doug Fister 5-7 4.71

 

Cashner was acquired via trade. not an MiLB contract.

 

Cook had a poor record, and when he was off, he was very off. But 8 of his 18 starts were Quality Starts, highlighted by a 9 inning 2-hit shutout against the Mariners. That's not so horrible for a minor league deal...

[notin]

Either way, they never seem to pan out.

 

Part of the reason has been the lower volume. MiLB contracts can be a volume game, where the more you sign, the greater the chances of one succeeding. Just because Jenrry Mejia did not pan out doesn't mean that successes like Derek Holland, Anibal Sanchez, and Francisco Liriano did not happen in recent years...

[Bellhorn04]

Cashner was acquired via trade. not an MiLB contract.

 

Cook had a poor record, and when he was off, he was very off. But 8 of his 18 starts were Quality Starts, highlighted by a 9 inning 2-hit shutout against the Mariners. That's not so horrible for a minor league deal...

 

Which all added up to an fWAR of minus .4

 

So the best we can come up with is a guy who was worse than replacement level.

[notin]

Which all added up to an fWAR of minus .4

 

So the best we can come up with is a guy who was worse than replacement level.

 

Wel, it's not like the minor league system was throwing out a bunch of pitchers above replacement level that year. Did the Sox have a better internal option?

[notin]

Which all added up to an fWAR of minus .4

 

So the best we can come up with is a guy who was worse than replacement level.

 

Really, Cook was hardly the problem. He threw 94 IP and was worth -0.4 fWAR. But look at the other non-Lester starters. Buchholz (189 IP 0.8 fWAR), Doubront (161 IP 1.2 fWAR) and Beckett (127 IP, 1.4 fWAR) were not all significantly better in larger roles. And Daniel Bard and Daisuke Matsuzaka made fewer starts but were equally ineffective or worse than Cook. THe Sox were not loaded with better options that year...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm on the short list that is intrigued by Yasiel Puig. But I think we can all agree he isn't very likely anyway...

 

There was a free agent named Puig

Who notin did greatly intrigue

But the Red Sox declined

Said 'Dude's out of his mind

And price-wise he's out of our league'