A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Say the Sox start strong and play about 10 games over .500 through July, enough to stay in contention for a playoff berth. Which would you prefer: Bloom "buying" at the deadline, maybe for one more starter or back end reliever, or promoting from within?

 

It may depend on whether a team is just trying to qualify for the postseason or making an actual run at a ring... Strength of competition also has to be considered; is someone running away with the division? A final factor for this Red Sox squad is the chance it may be the last hurrah for the current core...

 

It's not happening, but I'll bite.

 

If we are 10 over in July, some players stock will have risen.

 

I'd still have a fire sale.

 

There's no way I'd trade prospects to try and improve our chances.

 

It's time to let go. It's not worth betting the future on 25 to 1 odds or worse.

 

We need to start yesterday on improving our long term plan. We've already wasted time going nowhere.

 

If we wanted to win in 2020, we could have done something about it. We didn't. There's nothing left in the cupboards to raid.

 

Clinging to super long odds on a 2020 miracle is going to hamper and prolong our rise back to the top.

Edited January 22, 2020 by moonslav59

[cp176]

We have:

- no manager

- GM under $ restraints

- health question marks on 3 of our SP's

- little depth at 2b & of

- on paper not much of a BP

- Betts insistent on going to FA after the 2020 season

 

2020 is a dead man walking. Red Sox MUST reset the LT this season. if they wait another year it will be worse for us. much, much worse.

 

Makes me want to get all pumped up to watch them - NOT. I have no interest in watching them if what you are professing is actually going to happen. Every year that I have watched them since 1955, regardless of how bad they have been, I have always been led to believe that there in fact is a chance. I have believed it too. It is that belief that is important to me. Our ownership team has stated that their number one goal is to put a team out on the field this year that will be competitive. This in no way sounds to me that they have raised the white flag and are going all in on the future rebuild that many of you here have emphasized has to happen for so long now. Guess we get to see what happens.

[moonslav59]

Makes me want to get all pumped up to watch them - NOT. I have no interest in watching them if what you are professing is actually going to happen. Every year that I have watched them since 1955, regardless of how bad they have been, I have always been led to believe that there in fact is a chance. I have believed it too. It is that belief that is important to me. Our ownership team has stated that their number one goal is to put a team out on the field this year that will be competitive. This in no way sounds to me that they have raised the white flag and are going all in on the future rebuild that many of you here have emphasized has to happen for so long now. Guess we get to see what happens.

 

It looks like the plan is to role the dice we have and wait until July to make any hard choices.

 

Punting is a strategy better suited for football, but sometimes it may work in baseball. At least it keeps enough fans thinking there is a chance.

 

It's not like I think we have no chance. We have a better chance than some years, long ago, and I still watched every pitch of every game back then, too.

 

It would be nice to see some magic, this year. I just hope punting does not lengthen the rise back to the top. It looks like I'm in a small minority on this one, but we'll see what happens.

[notin]

It looks like the plan is to role the dice we have and wait until July to make any hard choices.

 

Punting is a strategy better suited for football, but sometimes it may work in baseball. At least it keeps enough fans thinking there is a chance.

 

It's not like I think we have no chance. We have a better chance than some years, long ago, and I still watched every pitch of every game back then, too.

 

It would be nice to see some magic, this year. I just hope punting does not lengthen the rise back to the top. It looks like I'm in a small minority on this one, but we'll see what happens.

 

This is a terrible punt.

 

So far the Sox have not unloaded one big contract, not trade away one veteran player, and not acquired one prospect. If the Sox are rebuilding, they need to learn how to do it...

[oldtimer]

This is a terrible punt.

 

So far the Sox have not unloaded one big contract, not trade away one veteran player, and not acquired one prospect. If the Sox are rebuilding, they need to learn how to do it...

 

Really the only meaningful contracts that can be shed are JBJ and Mookie/Price or Mookie/Eovaldi. Our asking price is too high for other clubs to bite but it doesn't make sense to let go of players and not get a sold return. Bloom is trying to do that with other teams knowing that the Sox would like to reset and that further erodes his bargaining position. I am not going to criticize Bloom for tryiing to put the Sox in the best position. There is still time to make moves.

[Bellhorn04]

I think somebody better define 'punt' as it applies here.

[Slasher9]

Say the Sox start strong and play about 10 games over .500 through July, enough to stay in contention for a playoff berth. Which would you prefer: Bloom "buying" at the deadline, maybe for one more starter or back end reliever, or promoting from within?

 

It may depend on whether a team is just trying to qualify for the postseason or making an actual run at a ring... Strength of competition also has to be considered; is someone running away with the division? A final factor for this Red Sox squad is the chance it may be the last hurrah for the current core...

 

if we trade mookie now and get under the LT tax for 2020...we reset the penalties and can pay him whatever it takes when he hits FA.

in this scenario 2020 is "dead" but 2021 and beyond we have the current core for years to come.

[moonslav59]

I think somebody better define 'punt' as it applies here.

 

"punt" is not always giving up on a game. Usually, it is not.

 

We are not taking a knee, down 28-0 with 30 seconds left, but we are punting the ball away by not making any significant moves to even replace the players we lost from a non playoff 2019 team.

 

Don't get me wrong, I was fine with not going out and spending this year, but I expected a reset. Doing neither is my last choice (not that we can't still spend & compete or reset by season's end).

[moonslav59]

This is a terrible punt.

 

 

It's one of those punts that gained about 10-15 yards in field position, if that.

 

The only reason I said 10-15 is that we are still in a position where we can easily reset, even if we wait until July- unless, God forbid, Betts, Price & Eovaldi are all hurt.

[moonslav59]

if we trade mookie now and get under the LT tax for 2020...we reset the penalties and can pay him whatever it takes when he hits FA.

in this scenario 2020 is "dead" but 2021 and beyond we have the current core for years to come.

 

That's how I see it: maybe lose Betts, so we can keep him.

 

If we can shed Price's contract by packaging him with Betts, our budget will be set up very nicely for 2021-2022. Just shedding Betts to reset, but keeping Price or Eovaldi will just create a similar situation as we face now: too little budget space to fill all our most pressing needs.

[notin]

It's one of those punts that gained about 10-15 yards in field position, if that.

 

The only reason I said 10-15 is that we are still in a position where we can easily reset, even if we wait until July- unless, God forbid, Betts, Price & Eovaldi are all hurt.

 

No. This is a fake punt. But one where the signal call made before the snap is “Fake punt on 3!”

 

Or something along the lines of Chico Marx play calling in “Horsefeathers”. But with a rhyme for “fake punt”...

[Bellhorn04]

if we trade mookie now and get under the LT tax for 2020...we reset the penalties and can pay him whatever it takes when he hits FA.

 

This is just a total fallacy. Resetting the tax rate does not mean we can pay Mookie $400 million.

[moonslav59]

This is just a total fallacy. Resetting the tax rate does not mean we can pay Mookie $400 million.

 

If anybody can pay Betts $400M, it's Henry and a small few other owners willing to take that plunge.

 

My guess is he gets $350M/10 or 11.

 

Certainly resetting makes it more doable, but even if someone outbids us, that money can be used (with much lower taxes) to sign multiple players to get us back to the top.

 

50% of $35M is $17.5M. 20% is $7M. That $10M in year one can get us a decent player or two.

[mvp 78]

If Mookie walks out that door, he's not coming back in.

[moonslav59]

No. This is a fake punt. But one where the signal call made before the snap is “Fake punt on 3!”

 

Or something along the lines of Chico Marx play calling in “Horsefeathers”. But with a rhyme for “fake punt”...

 

I don't disagree, but I seem to be getting mixed messages from you on what you think the Sox should have done.

 

I'm all for your position of signing cheap guys to add depth, but are you for resetting or going for one last hurrah?

 

I think we both agree playing the middle ground is the worst choice. (Not that we will end up doing this all year.)

[mvp 78]

They should have built a team to win (lots of lower cost guys that they let sign elsewhere), but moved Mookie and Price if the opportunity came up. Sitting around and waiting for a deal seems like the worst move to make.

[Slasher9]

This is just a total fallacy. Resetting the tax rate does not mean we can pay Mookie $400 million.

 

would you say the odds are better to sign Mookie to a LTC if we reset this season?

i believe JH thinks that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I just keep going back to the law of averages -- and this -- how many fans and experts expected the Red Sox to contend a year ago? And now, how many expect them not to?

 

I hope most would admit and remember the answer to the first was just about everyone. This season Boston returns the same basic group of talented regulars and starting pitchers that set that franchise record for wins just two years ago.

 

Forget 108, but not even 90? It all comes down to the mound... some point to '18 heroics from Sale, Price and Eovaldi and hope for more; others look at injuries from '19 and predict even less. Is it unreasonable to expect something in between? After all, the Big Three has averaged a combined 39 wins per year in their careers (including last season's MASH unit when they combined for only 15). Don't forget the Red Sox won 93 in each of '17 and '16 -- the former with Price on the DL, the latter with Sale pitching for Chicago.

 

First base lost its combo of All-Star/WS MVP (for now). Second base has been an issue-- at least turning the DP, since DP himself has been out. The Sox also lost some valuable arms in Kimbrel, Kelly and Porcello -- none are as good as they were, but all are casualties of constricted payroll... which has prevented replacing them with name pitchers.

 

Less glamorous alternatives are a facet of roster refinement that Sox fans are just not used to under current ownership. This is where we'll have to wait and see, and trust in Chaim Bloom... and not doom and gloom.

 

Pitchers and catchers are coming soon -- even if we don't recognize them!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

would you say the odds are better to sign Mookie to a LTC if we reset this season?

i believe JH thinks that.

 

I think the Sox reset by the end of the season, so they won't be taxed $100 mil and lose draft picks when they back up the truck for Mookie. Then they'll have another couple years or a new CBA before they have to worry about resetting again.

[mvp 78]

I think the Sox reset by the end of the season, so they won't be taxed $100 mil and lose draft picks when they back up the truck for Mookie. Then they'll have another couple years or a new CBA before they have to worry about resetting again.

 

Once the season starts, it gets harder and harder to get under the tax. If they get through 50% of the season, they'd have to dump Price and Mookie to get under the cap.

[Slasher9]

I just keep going back to the law of averages -- and this -- how many fans and experts expected the Red Sox to contend a year ago? And now, how many expect them not to?

 

I hope most would admit and remember the answer to the first was just about everyone. This season Boston returns the same basic group of talented regulars and starting pitchers that set that franchise record for wins just two years ago.

 

Forget 108, but not even 90? It all comes down to the mound... some point to '18 heroics from Sale, Price and Eovaldi and hope for more; others look at injuries from '19 and predict even less. Is it unreasonable to expect something in between? After all, the Big Three has averaged a combined 39 wins per year in their careers (including last season's MASH unit when they combined for only 15). Don't forget the Red Sox won 93 in each of '17 and '16 -- the former with Price on the DL, the latter with Sale pitching for Chicago.

 

First base lost its combo of All-Star/WS MVP (for now). Second base has been an issue-- at least turning the DP, since DP himself has been out. The Sox also lost some valuable arms in Kimbrel, Kelly and Porcello -- none are as good as they were, but all are casualties of constricted payroll... which has prevented replacing them with name pitchers.

 

Less glamorous alternatives are a facet of roster refinement that Sox fans are just not used to under current ownership. This is where we'll have to wait and see, and trust in Chaim Bloom... and not doom and gloom.

 

Pitchers and catchers are coming soon -- even if we don't recognize them!

 

i dont disagree with any of this.

the only thing i can say is that IMO the only way we can sign Mookie to a LTC is if we reset the luxury tax. we have to shed payroll from this current roster in order to reset. so while i would cheer and hope for a mid 90 win season from the current team, i just dont see how we can have the current team as-is and sign mookie next offseason. we need to shed payroll prior to ASB.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Mookie walks out that door, he's not coming back in.

 

I totally agree with this. I can't imagine he'd agree to do the company a big favor by transferring his office to another part of the country for six months only to come back next winter. A club that once fought him -- and lost -- on arbitration should now bend over backwards to accommodate Betts all season if they want him to re-up.

[Slasher9]

I think the Sox reset by the end of the season, so they won't be taxed $100 mil and lose draft picks when they back up the truck for Mookie. Then they'll have another couple years or a new CBA before they have to worry about resetting again.

 

agreed.

[S5Dewey]

If anybody can pay Betts $400M, it's Henry and a small few other owners willing to take that plunge.

 

My guess is he gets $350M/10 or 11.

 

Certainly resetting makes it more doable, but even if someone outbids us, that money can be used (with much lower taxes) to sign multiple players to get us back to the top.

 

50% of $35M is $17.5M. 20% is $7M. That $10M in year one can get us a decent player or two.

 

The more I look at this situation the less I like it and the more I think we should just let Mookie walk and not resign him. "BLASPHEME" you say?

 

Here's the problem with letting Mookie go and then resigning him for $375/11. (notice that I've split the two estimates of $350M & $400M since they're both estimates anyway). It's a short term solution to a long term problem.

 

If we resign him for $34M/year for 11 years we're still on the hook for $34M/year for one player. All we've done is kick the LT can down the road a couple of years and after that couple of years we'll still be on that hook for $34M when we'll be looking at Devers' contract as well as replacing JDM's bat + trying to rebuild a pitching staff with the "leftover" money. I question that's even feasible unless JH wants to get back into the high LT cycle/rebuilding again - only this time with Mookie's salary guaranteed.

 

I'm seriously beginning to wonder if it's not smarter to spread that $34M around rather than pour it all into one player who only comes to bat every nine AB's and can only play one position in the field. Injury risk aside, I'd rather put that money into a FA pitcher in a front-loaded deal.

[Slasher9]

If Mookie walks out that door, he's not coming back in.

 

I totally agree with this. I can't imagine he'd agree to do the company a big favor by transferring his office to another part of the country for six months only to come back next winter. A club that once fought him -- and lost -- on arbitration should now bend over backwards to accommodate Betts all season if they want him to re-up.

 

in many many cases i would agree with you. not with mookie. he has been let it known over and over that he is going to FA and the reason is to maximize his $$$. he will sign the biggest contract. full stop. it wont matter what team it is. he could be traded 10x this season and all 10 teams will be in contention to sign Mookie Betts if they offer the biggest $$$ contract.

[kenmeister]

Forget 108, but not even 90? It all comes down to the mound... some point to '18 heroics from Sale, Price and Eovaldi and hope for more; others look at injuries from '19 and predict even less. Is it unreasonable to expect something in between? After all, the Big Three has averaged a combined 39 wins per year in their careers (including last season's MASH unit when they combined for only 15). Don't forget the Red Sox won 93 in each of '17 and '16 -- the former with Price on the DL, the latter with Sale pitching for Chicago.

 

I think it's reasonable to expect that Price & Eovaldi will make about 20-25 starts each and have trips to the injured list. So of those 20-25 starts, the big question is how quality will they be? I hope that Eovaldi at least will show us the talent he showed in parts of 2018, but realistically the 40-50 starts overall will probably end up around league average (4.10 ERA combined).

 

Sale is the big question mark. I'm really worried he breaks down by the end of April and needs Tommy John surgery.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Once the season starts, it gets harder and harder to get under the tax. If they get through 50% of the season, they'd have to dump Price and Mookie to get under the cap.

 

Price or Eovaldi and JBJ won't do it? Isn't the payroll number the MLB looks at the same at season's end as the beginning (I understand that acquisitions can alter it, but with additions also come subtractions?)?

[mvp 78]

I'm seriously beginning to wonder if it's not smarter to spread that $34M around rather than pour it all into one player who only comes to bat every nine AB's and can only play one position in the field. Injury risk aside, I'd rather put that money into a FA pitcher in a front-loaded deal.

 

It really just depends on if they money is spent the right way. It's hard to give up Mookie if you're only getting 3 Ryan Dempsters back.

[moonslav59]

This season Boston returns the same basic group of talented regulars and starting pitchers that set that franchise record for wins just two years ago.

 

This is just plain false.

 

Yes, some additions by subtractions listed below, but look at who we replaced these guys with...

 

Missing from the 2018 roster are (listed by most PAs or IP in 2018):

PA

6. Nunez 502

8. Moreland 459

9. Holt 367

10. Leon 288

12. Swihart 207

13. HRam 195

14. Pearce 165 (very important in playoffs)

15. Kinsler 143

IP

1. Porcello 191

5. Johnson 99 (still in system- not on 40 man roster)

7. Pomeranz 74

8. Kelly 66

9. Kimbrel 62 (most high leverage)

13 Wright 54

16 Thornburg 24

 

8 out of the top 15 PA guys gone.

6 of the top 13 IP guys gone.

 

This is NOT the 2018 team, and neither was the 2019 team.

 

[mvp 78]

Price or Eovaldi and JBJ won't do it? Isn't the payroll number the MLB looks at the same at season's end as the beginning (I understand that acquisitions can alter it, but with additions also come subtractions?)?

 

I believe they would still have to factor in the % of games played. So if Mookie plays 81 games and gets traded, it still counts as 13.5 against the cap.

 

It's not "what's the AAV payroll at year's end" but rather the total payroll $$$'s spent in 2020.