A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[illinoisredsox]

The London games will be on artificial turf so there could be some odd plays and the catchers/1B/3B will be chasing some fould balls in the generous foul areas. I would say there is a good chance that the field itself will come into discussion as a condition that affects the outcome. Hopefully the British umpires have a better strike zone recognition than the MLB guys.

 

There’s no way they would use British umpires for this series - the game would be far too fast for them. MLB will send a regular crew.

 

EDIT - Just saw that the Saturday game will have Ed Hickox behind the plate, with Carlos Torres, Dana DeMuth and everyone’s favorite, Angel Hernandez, first to third with the normal totation for Sunday.

 

Since you bet on just about anything over there, I wonder if there’s an over/under on how many calls Hernandez will screw up? Tougher to place s number when he’ll be at 3rd and then 2nd.

Edited June 29, 2019 by illinoisredsox

[Oscars]

I once rented a car on the south island of New Zealand and went on a fly fishing vacation. Bridges down there at that time were sometimes narrowed to one lane. I forgot that the left side of the car extended so much father out with a right side driver's seating and came within inches of tattooing a bridge abutment.

 

We love our one way bridges here in rural parts of New Zealand.

My American mother-in-law went the wrong way around a roundabout a couple of years ago!

We don’t let her drive anymore when she visits NZ

[moonslav59]

My second half projections:

 

First half/ Second half

44-38/ 52-28

 

OPS

2018 Player 2019

.924 Bogey .900

.897 Devers .875

.893 JD M .925

.859 Moreland .750

.838 Betts .950

.801 Vaz .725

.800 Holt .725

.798 Beni .850

.785 Chavis .725

.714 JBJ .775

.571 Nunez .725

.564 Leon .550

.503 Pearce .750

 

Pitchers (listed by most first half IP)

ERA

first Pitcher second

3.82 Sale 2.80

4.52 Porcello 4.20

4.87 ERod 3.75

3.36 Price 3.25

2.72 Walden 3.00

5.59 Velazquez 4.50

1.70 Workman 2.20

4.19 Barnes 3.00

4.24 Brewer 4.25

3.34 Brasier 3.25

2.52 Hembree 3.25

6.00 Eovaldi 4.00

6.43 Johnson 4.75

0.00 Wright 3.50

 

[Nick]

Porcello ate only one third of an inning today. If we have a blowout Sunday, punish him by making him the long reliever on Sunday. He needs the work.

[oldtimer]

My second half projections:

 

First half/ Second half

44-38/ 52-28

 

OPS

2018 Player 2019

.924 Bogey .900

.897 Devers .875

.893 JD M .925

.859 Moreland .750

.838 Betts .950

.801 Vaz .725

.800 Holt .725

.798 Beni .850

.785 Chavis .725

.714 JBJ .775

.571 Nunez .725

.564 Leon .550

.503 Pearce .750

 

Pitchers (listed by most first half IP)

ERA

first Pitcher second

3.82 Sale 2.80

4.52 Porcello 4.20

4.87 ERod 3.75

3.36 Price 3.25

2.72 Walden 3.00

5.59 Velazquez 4.50

1.70 Workman 2.20

4.19 Barnes 3.00

4.24 Brewer 4.25

3.34 Brasier 3.25

2.52 Hembree 3.25

6.00 Eovaldi 4.00

6.43 Johnson 4.75

0.00 Wright 3.50

 

 

17 runs given up today and counting. Ouch!

[Bellhorn04]

moon, you should have waited until after this game to post those projections LOL

[moonslav59]

moon, you should have waited until after this game to post those projections LOL

 

I meant 28-52.

[oldtimer]

I meant 28-52.

 

You need a sense of humor to follow baseball and the Sox in particular.

 

I hear Bogie left the game with a leg injury. That if it is serious would be the worst thing to happen in this game. He is one of our best and is really the team leader. Hate to have it be serious.

[moonslav59]

You need a sense of humor to follow baseball and the Sox in particular.

 

I hear Bogie left the game with a leg injury. That if it is serious would be the worst thing to happen in this game. He is one of our best and is really the team leader. Hate to have it be serious.

 

It didn't look serious, but hamies can be tricky.

[notin]

I meant 28-52.

 

 

Actually with the exceptions of Shawaryn and Porcello, what was disappointing?

 

I will day this past week has had two firsts for me after over 40 years watching baseball. So things I never saw before were

 

1. A game where both teams put the DH in the field and had the pitcher in the lineup to hit.

 

2. A game where both SP had 0.2 IP and 6 ER...

[OH FOY]

Shawaryn's ERA went from 3.18 to 8.53. Mookie had a hit in the first inning and went hitless after that.

[jacksonianmarch]

Actually with the exceptions of Shawaryn and Porcello, what was disappointing?

 

I will day this past week has had two firsts for me after over 40 years watching baseball. So things I never saw before were

 

1. A game where both teams put the DH in the field and had the pitcher in the lineup to hit.

 

2. A game where both SP had 0.2 IP and 6 ER...

 

Porcello only got one out

[bkzwhitestrican]

Porcello only got one out

 

Word, you could actually say that Tanaka was 100% more effective than Porcello

[dgalehouse]

Word, you could actually say that Tanaka was 100% more effective than Porcello

 

Tanaka went deeper in the game .

[notin]

Tanaka went deeper in the game .

 

 

Saved that bullpen

[oldtimer]

DD for the most part stood pat with last years team sans Kimbrell and in addition the team has had a number of injuries with perhaps the most critial was Eovaldi. That might have been avoidable had the elbow problems been dealt with in Late Novermber instead of April but it is what it is. We all know financial constraints have played a part along with the minors depleted to attempt to win it all last season. The situation wasn't helped but having to carry Sandoval's contract and having Pedroias contract (with no value to the team as well) to make moves more difficult. Moon has pointed out that we got improved performance from some guys which to some degree has made up for weaken performance from Betts, Beni and even JDM. Maybe it's Cora approach or player apathy, but we are not as good a team this year while the Yankees have improved.

 

Compare that to Cashman's activities in the off season just for field players. Urshela, LeMahieu, Encarnacion as the most prominent. The Yankees were smart and survived a streak of injuries because of their depth and they are getting back their injured resources. That doesn't even touch on pitching help that they got and probably will add beyond what they had.

 

Maybe we still have enough to get a wild card slot provided we shore up the BP. That may be a 50 % probability at this point but does anyone see us beating the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees or perhaps other and going to the World Series? I don't so recommend going to a play B approach, which is to look to develop any young players that can make the grade (maybe none, but dont get rid of the most promising). identify a list of keepers and then trade away or otherwise get rid of those that don't appear to be competitive so as to open up some salary space to fill our pitching and position player spaces.

 

My list of keepers are Bogie, Devers, Vaz, Betts (I expect him to bounce back), probably Beni although not surely, probably Chavis as a low cost 1st base presence, and probably JDM unless he exercises his option to leave and possibly JBJ if he shows sustained performance.

 

That leaves us to find a permanent 2nd baseman, utility guys (Holt is fragile but is a pro), a backup catcher if we can do better than Leon,but the key is pitching. We have Sale, Price, E-Rod and Eovaldi but Porcello, while an inning eater may need to be let go as a FA. Have to ask, why can't we develop a starting pitcher as the Rays have so often done? I would blow up the pen keeping only a few of the best.

 

This is a thread for aa realistic view of the season and that is my view of reality.

[harmony]

Is a Wild Card slot worth trading away longer-term assets?

 

That’s the question many teams face each July.

[d-money]

This team has been a massive dissapointment. They can’t beat their hated rival this season. Still alive for a wildcard spot but then what? There’s a lot of teams in the hunt.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your squad is at the end of their window. There are no saviors in the minors. You’ve signed everyone to long term deals except Betts and no way DD sells low on him. He is going to try and improve the squad for sure. He’s gonna try to add in the offseason.

[moonslav59]

Is a Wild Card slot worth trading away longer-term assets?

 

That’s the question many teams face each July.

 

We won a ring as a Wild Card team once.

[moonslav59]

DD for the most part stood pat with last years team sans Kimbrell and in addition the team has had a number of injuries with perhaps the most critial was Eovaldi. That might have been avoidable had the elbow problems been dealt with in Late Novermber instead of April but it is what it is. We all know financial constraints have played a part along with the minors depleted to attempt to win it all last season. The situation wasn't helped but having to carry Sandoval's contract and having Pedroias contract (with no value to the team as well) to make moves more difficult. Moon has pointed out that we got improved performance from some guys which to some degree has made up for weaken performance from Betts, Beni and even JDM. Maybe it's Cora approach or player apathy, but we are not as good a team this year while the Yankees have improved.

 

Compare that to Cashman's activities in the off season just for field players. Urshela, LeMahieu, Encarnacion as the most prominent. The Yankees were smart and survived a streak of injuries because of their depth and they are getting back their injured resources. That doesn't even touch on pitching help that they got and probably will add beyond what they had.

 

Maybe we still have enough to get a wild card slot provided we shore up the BP. That may be a 50 % probability at this point but does anyone see us beating the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees or perhaps other and going to the World Series? I don't so recommend going to a play B approach, which is to look to develop any young players that can make the grade (maybe none, but dont get rid of the most promising). identify a list of keepers and then trade away or otherwise get rid of those that don't appear to be competitive so as to open up some salary space to fill our pitching and position player spaces.

 

My list of keepers are Bogie, Devers, Vaz, Betts (I expect him to bounce back), probably Beni although not surely, probably Chavis as a low cost 1st base presence, and probably JDM unless he exercises his option to leave and possibly JBJ if he shows sustained performance.

 

That leaves us to find a permanent 2nd baseman, utility guys (Holt is fragile but is a pro), a backup catcher if we can do better than Leon,but the key is pitching. We have Sale, Price, E-Rod and Eovaldi but Porcello, while an inning eater may need to be let go as a FA. Have to ask, why can't we develop a starting pitcher as the Rays have so often done? I would blow up the pen keeping only a few of the best.

 

This is a thread for aa realistic view of the season and that is my view of reality.

 

Well said.

 

This winter I suggested a lot of things, and some would have been horrible (like Cody Allen), but I did suggest LeMahieu and didn't get much agreement.

[harmony]

We won a ring as a Wild Card team once.

After 83 games in 2004 the Red Sox were in second place, six games behind the Yankees and tied with with the Athletics for the only Wild Card slot.

[jacksonianmarch]

The second wild card does change the game a bit. It essentially removes your designated ace from double duty in the ALDS provided you win.

 

Since the added wild card in 2012, only 1 wild card team has won a WS (the giants in 2014) and only one other WC team made the World Series (Royals in 2014). The added wild card has actually created the disadvantage that was intended.

[notin]

Your squad is at the end of their window. There are no saviors in the minors. You’ve signed everyone to long term deals except Betts and no way DD sells low on him. He is going to try and improve the squad for sure. He’s gonna try to add in the offseason.

 

 

So it’s the end of the window despite only Porcello leaving this year and Bradley’s nd Betts TBD after that?

[Maxbialystock]

The second wild card does change the game a bit. It essentially removes your designated ace from double duty in the ALDS provided you win.

 

Since the added wild card in 2012, only 1 wild card team has won a WS (the giants in 2014) and only one other WC team made the World Series (Royals in 2014). The added wild card has actually created the disadvantage that was intended.

 

Exactly. Before going to 2 wild card teams in each league, the 1 wild card team had as good a chance to go all the way as the other 3 (division winners), especially in the AL. The problem with that scheme is that the first wild card team often has a better, even a significantly better W-L record than 1 or more Division winners. Thus the 1 wild card format usually provided the most competitive postseason.

 

I'm not saying that because of the Sox situation this year because right now, while I think the Sox have a good shot at the postseason, I don't see them beating the Yankees or Astros in the ALDS, even without having a play-in game.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

The second wild card does change the game a bit. It essentially removes your designated ace from double duty in the ALDS provided you win.

 

Since the added wild card in 2012, only 1 wild card team has won a WS (the giants in 2014) and only one other WC team made the World Series (Royals in 2014). The added wild card has actually created the disadvantage that was intended.

 

So 7 years, and 14 wild card game winners advancing, and 2 of them have made it to the Series. That's a 14.3% success rate compared to a average success rate of 25%.

 

The sample is still too small to be conclusive.

[notin]

The question will remain - what would it take to change from buyer to seller?

 

The division is further and further away. The WC is getting more crowded. And if you’re realistic about it, you can’t wait until July 31 to decide, since trades are very complex and lawyers have to review contracts, etc. The Sox probably have 2 weeks to make a decision if they’re going to stay in it or just sell off some parts and try to reload...

[Nick]

One big issue I have with the organization is not being realistic on some players, and I'm not even talking about our bullpen.

 

1 Sandoval....the guy was finished long before anyone in the organization was willing to admit it. Out of shape slob. By clinging on to false hope, it prevented us from moving on.

2 Hanley...we finally came to our senses and let him go.

3 Pedroia....hell Jacksonianmarch KNEW that his type of injury was career ending. Everyone in New England kept their fingers crossed. Yankee fan knew it all along but not our medical staff. We did nothing to have a back up plan. Only good thing to come out of it was Michael Chavis.

4 Steve Pearce...at this point why do we need him back? Is he an upgrade over Chavis?

 

I do like it that we're getting to see young players, finding out if they're good or not. Shawaryn can't throw strikes. He lives off the strike zone. I don't want team full of Dice K's. Try someone else. If they can't cut it, move on. Better find out the bad news early rather than later.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

The question will remain - what would it take to change from buyer to seller?

 

The division is further and further away. The WC is getting more crowded. And if you’re realistic about it, you can’t wait until July 31 to decide, since trades are very complex and lawyers have to review contracts, etc. The Sox probably have 2 weeks to make a decision if they’re going to stay in it or just sell off some parts and try to reload...

 

They would have to fall a long way out of the WC to become sellers IMO. This is the Boston Red Sox, the team with the highest payroll and highest ticket prices, and this wasn't supposed to be a punted season.

[notin]

One big issue I have with the organization is not being realistic on some players, and I'm not even talking about our bullpen.

 

1 Sandoval....the guy was finished long before anyone in the organization was willing to admit it. Out of shape slob. It prevented us from moving on.

2 Hanley...we finally came to our senses and let him go.

3 Pedroia....hell Jacksonianmarch KNEW that his type of injury was career ending. Everyone in New England kept their fingers crossed. Yankee fan knew it all along but not our medical staff. We did nothing to have a back up plan. Only good thing to come out of it was Michael Chavis.

4 Steve Pearce...at this point why do we need him back? Is he an upgrade over Chavis?

 

I do like it that we're getting to see young players, find out if they're good. Shawaryn can't throw strikes. He lives off the strike zone. I don't want team full of Dice K's. Try someone else. If they can't cut it, move on. Better find out early than later.

 

 

1. Sandoval was awful in Boston, but his career was clearly not over.

 

2. Hanley reportedly all but begged the Sox to sign him. I don’t fault them there.

 

3. He says that about every Sox player. But it’s not like he examined Pedroia and it’s certainly not like no player has ever come back from that injury. (Justin Turner did, for example.)

 

4. Don’t get me started.