A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[a700hitter]

It's still a dare you chose based on what you think is right. I doubt most baseball people think it takes 5 starts to round into shape, but it's fine that you believe that.

 

Even if it does, had Cora used the starters more in ST'ing would it still have take 5 starts or 4? I still think it is all arbitrary- yours and my chosen dates.

 

Either way, our starters are not pitching to their norm after May 1st or May 11th, so no matter what date we chose, you were wrong. Only Price is doing better than "norm."

 

My point was to counter your statement.

 

I don't know why they are doing worse. I'd have thought the slight extra rest would help them be stronger at a time like this when we need them to go deeper and let up less runs. We are lucky they give us just one of those needs.

 

This all started when the pen was being blamed for just about everything, and some of us pointed out that the starters were not helping and had actually been more responsible for losses than the pen.

 

You said they have been pitching to their norms after the "rest period." I showed that is not the case. I'm not sure what more needs to be said.

 

Over the 2 month period since they rounded into shape, the numbers show that Sale, Price and ERod are right around their career norms, and I expect that will continue throughout the remainder of the season (barring injury). My theory is that their performance at the beginning of the season was far below the norms, because they were not ready for the season to start. I thought that you had a theory explaining the drop in performance that was different than mine. I didn't realize that you were just looking to contradict my theory without an alternative explanation. Either way, your argument hasn't persuaded me, especially without an alternative explanation.

[moonslav59]

Over the 2 month period since they rounded into shape, the numbers show that Sale, Price and ERod are right around their career norms, and I expect that will continue throughout the remainder of the season (barring injury). My theory is that their performance at the beginning of the season was far below the norms, because they were not ready for the season to start. I thought that you had a theory explaining the drop in performance that was different than mine. I didn't realize that you were just looking to contradict my theory without an alternative explanation. Either way, your argument hasn't persuaded me, especially without an alternative explanation.

 

I thought I was pretty clear on my points after having to explain it several times from various angles.

 

Sale is clearly not himself. To say he is near his "career norm" or as I prefer to look at his last 2-3 year "norm" is just plain wrong. He is struggling, inconsistent and is no where near what he was like before the injury last summer. Throw out March and April, and he is no where near a Cy Young contender.

 

Price is doing better- no argument here.

 

ERod going deeper into games has been a bright spot, but he's pitching significantly worse than last year. He's entering prime, so one should not compare his numbers now, in prime, to his career numbers as those numbers include early career struggles. Nobody expected him to pitch like he did early in his career.

 

ERod's numbers after his 5th start:

4.40 ERA

1.37 WHIP

5.9 IP/GS

 

The 4.40 ERA is higher than every season in his career, except 2016's 4.71. His career ERA is 4.23, which is close, but pretty far from his 2017-2018 combined 4.01 ERA. His WHIP from 2017-2018 was 1.27. 5.9 IP per GS does outweighs the 5.5 IP/GS over the last 2 years but not by enough to make him near "norm".

 

Porcello is not even up for debate.

 

Add to this the fact that all but Price are trending downwards over their last 3, 5 or 9 starts (any number you chose) only highlights the fact that 3 of our starters are not near any norm.

[a700hitter]

I thought I was pretty clear on my points after having to explain it several times from various angles.

 

Sale is clearly not himself. To say he is near his "career norm" or as I prefer to look at his last 2-3 year "norm" is just plain wrong. He is struggling, inconsistent and is no where near what he was like before the injury last summer. Throw out March and April, and he is no where near a Cy Young contender.

 

Price is doing better- no argument here.

 

ERod going deeper into games has been a bright spot, but he's pitching significantly worse than last year. He's entering prime, so one should not compare his numbers now, in prime, to his career numbers as those numbers include early career struggles. Nobody expected him to pitch like he did early in his career.

 

ERod's numbers after his 5th start:

4.40 ERA

1.37 WHIP

5.9 IP/GS

 

The 4.40 ERA is higher than every season in his career, except 2016's 4.71. His career ERA is 4.23, which is close, but pretty far from his 2017-2018 combined 4.01 ERA. His WHIP from 2017-2018 was 1.27. 5.9 IP per GS does outweighs the 5.5 IP/GS over the last 2 years but not by enough to make him near "norm".

 

Porcello is not even up for debate.

 

Add to this the fact that all but Price are trending downwards over their last 3, 5 or 9 starts (any number you chose) only highlights the fact that 3 of our starters are not near any norm.

I stand by my assertion, and find your argument unconvincing.

 

Edit: The reason that I kept asking you to explain your position was because I thought you had an alternate theory. It turned out that you didn't and that your only point was to poke holes in my theory.

Edited July 3, 2019 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

I stand by my assertion, and find your argument unconvincing.

 

Edit: The reason that I kept asking you to explain your position was because I thought you had an alternate theory. It turned out that you didn't and that your only point was to poke holes in my theory.

 

You still don't get it.

 

It's not your theory I disagree with. I actually agree the ST'ing rest was part of the reason for the slow start. I agree that our starters have done better after March & April, but they were so bad, that's not hard to do.

 

It's your point of fact concerning our top starters pitching to their norm after their "rest period" I took issue with, and I stated that time after time.

 

Yes, I added some distracters about how I had expected the rest to maybe help them do better than their norms once they settled in, but they have not. They are heading in the wrong direction, with the exception of Price.

[a700hitter]

You still don't get it.

 

It's not your theory I disagree with. I actually agree the ST'ing rest was part of the reason for the slow start. I agree that our starters have done better after March & April, but they were so bad, that's not hard to do.

 

It's your point of fact concerning our top starters pitching to their norm after their "rest period" I took issue with, and I stated that time after time.

 

Yes, I added some distracters about how I had expected the rest to maybe help them do better than their norms once they settled in, but they have not. They are heading in the wrong direction, with the exception of Price.

I disagree. I think that Sale and Price are and will continue perform to expectations and career norms for the remainder of the season. I think ERod is having a better than career norm season. He's going deeper into games more often than last year, and I think his other numbers will fall into career norms or better.

 

We have taken this about as far as it can go. We can revisit my projection at the end of the season to see if I was right.

 

In the meantime, there are glaring needs in the bullpen whether or not Eovaldi closes, and if Eovaldi closes, we have a rotation hole that needs to be filed. We also need Cora to stop clinging to certain lineups that are not producing. It took forever for him to move Devers to the top of the order and drop Beni to the bottom half. Unless Betts finds some consistency soon, he needs to go down in the order too.

Edited July 3, 2019 by a700hitter

[Slasher9]

Maybe not ramping them up in ST caused both issues:

The bad April from our SP

The bad June from our SP

Perhaps the lackadaisical approach to ST had a more profound effect then just the first xx days.

Perhaps the lackadaisical approach to preparing for the season is still showing negative effects and that will continue for the entire season.

[notin]

Maybe not ramping them up in ST caused both issues:

The bad April from our SP

The bad June from our SP

Perhaps the lackadaisical approach to ST had a more profound effect then just the first xx days.

Perhaps the lackadaisical approach to preparing for the season is still showing negative effects and that will continue for the entire season.

 

The whole idea of picking a single date for when the impact of the lackadaisical spring wore off is silly. Every pitcher got into the groove on his own schedule and the improvements weren’t denoted by a singular point. Some of them still might have occasional momentary lapses...

[Bellhorn04]

You are so completely off base it boggles the mind. Try these hard facts on for size--

 

ERod has pitched worse, ERA 4.79, in 2019 than in 2018, ERA 3.82. But he pitched 15 innings in ST this year vs. 0 last year. Thus: more ST innings = higher ERA.

 

Price has pitched better, ERA 3.36, in 2019 than in 2018, ERA 3.58, and pitched 6.2 innings in ST this year vs. 12 last year. Thus, fewer ST innings = lower ERA.

 

Porcello does fit your theory, sort of. He pitched 16 innings last year in ST and 12 this year, and his ERA worsened from 4.28 to 5.07. But to me it is downright silly to claim that those 4 additional innings in ST would have made all the difference. And it is absolutely laughable that to say it took the entire month of April for Porcello to recover from not pitching those 4 stinking innings.

 

Sale, like Price, also pitched 6 fewer innings in ST this year than last, 9 this year vs. 15.1 last year. And, yes, his ERA has shot up from 2.11 to 3.82. But, again, I find it laughable that you truly believe that 6 stinking innings required the entire month of April for Sale to recover, which he really has not done to this day. Sale has a bigger problem than missing those 6 innings, and a blind man can see it.

 

About Sale I might add that he ran out of gas from August onward the past two seasons, so the notion of going light in ST this year was not as stupid as you claim it to be.

 

Yes, Max, I think it's entirely possible that Restgate has been overplayed just a wee bit.

 

The starters pitched fewer innings than normal, but they weren't entirely inactive by any means.

 

One can also dig up plenty of examples of pitchers who have had a small number of innings pitched in spring or zero innings pitched in spring and suffered no apparent ill effects.

 

The ultimate explanation might be just that there are a lot of variances and randomness in baseball that no one has ever been able to explain.

[Slasher9]

There may also have been a perceived “meaasage” received by the entire team that preparation for this season was not all that important to the manager. To me this is not just about the effects on SP in the month of April. It was an approach to the entire season by the entire team from the manager on down....

[Bellhorn04]

There may also have been a perceived “meaasage” received by the entire team that preparation for this season was not all that important to the manager. To me this is not just about the effects on SP in the month of April. It was an approach to the entire season by the entire team from the manager on down....

 

So how do we explain the excellent seasons of Devers, Bogey and Vazquez? How do we explain the improvement in Devers's defense?

[notin]

Yes, Max, I think it's entirely possible that Restgate has been overplayed just a wee bit.

 

The starters pitched fewer innings than normal, but they weren't entirely inactive by any means.

 

One can also dig up plenty of examples of pitchers who have had a small number of innings pitched in spring or zero innings pitched in spring and suffered no apparent ill effects.

 

The ultimate explanation might be just that there are a lot of variances and randomness in baseball that no one has ever been able to explain.

 

Collectively it appeared to have s negative impact. But when you look at each individual human being, the effects varied, because, well, they’re all individual human beings. Heck Steven Wright hasn’t pitched in two years and came out of the gate just fine...

[Bellhorn04]

Collectively it appeared to have s negative impact. But when you look at each individual human being, the effects varied, because, well, they’re all individual human beings. Heck Steven Wright hasn’t pitched in two years and came out of the gate just fine...

 

That's right. They're all individuals, and when you look at them as individuals, the Restgate thing kind of falls apart.

 

Take Porcello. He pitched 12 innings in spring. He usually pitches 15 or 16, I assume. Does anyone really think the drop of 3-4 spring innings screwed his season? We're talking about a veteran pitcher whose resume suggests he knows how to prepare and how to keep himself in condition. And who is in a contract year, I might add.

[notin]

That's right. They're all individuals, and when you look at them as individuals, the Restgate thing kind of falls apart.

 

Take Porcello. He pitched 12 innings in spring. He usually pitches 15 or 16, I assume. Does anyone really think the drop of 3-4 spring innings screwed his season? We're talking about a veteran pitcher whose resume suggests he knows how to prepare and how to keep himself in condition. And who is in a contract year, I might add.

 

It’s not just about the IP total. It’s also about how they’re spaced.

 

If you were training for a marathon, would you run one mile course 26 times or one 26 mile course?

 

There’s an expected ramp up sequence that Cora appears to have avoided...

[dannycater]

The WS Hangover affected the Sox badly. The Dodgers are hungry, the Yankees are hungry, the Astros are hungry. Winning it all makes you feel satisfied. So you have a majority of players trying to get back to where they were and others who are simply good young players who are coming into their own--Bogie, Devers, Vasquez. Bradley has been on fire after his annual start season horrific, bench-worthy slump. The pitchers, you got Eavoldi who was hurt, Sale and Porcello who have been disappointing although Sale has had far more terrific outings and deserves better than his record shows. Price and EROD have been fine, good enough to be 15-game or more winners when it's all said and done. Wright just returned. The relievers were overworked, badly overworked and some have shown in results--Barnes and Brasier--and others like Workman, Walden have been very good to terrific. The Pawtucket clown car hasn't worked out either. Relievers simply have come and gone, and been terrible at times. Overall, the team is overdue to have a big streak, like a 22-5 month. Edited July 3, 2019 by dannycater

[moonslav59]

I disagree. I think that Sale and Price are and will continue perform to expectations and career norms for the remainder of the season. I think ERod is having a better than career norm season. He's going deeper into games more often than last year, and I think his other numbers will fall into career norms or better.

 

We have taken this about as far as it can go. We can revisit my projection at the end of the season to see if I was right.

 

In the meantime, there are glaring needs in the bullpen whether or not Eovaldi closes, and if Eovaldi closes, we have a rotation hole that needs to be filed. We also need Cora to stop clinging to certain lineups that are not producing. It took forever for him to move Devers to the top of the order and drop Beni to the bottom half. Unless Betts finds some consistency soon, he needs to go down in the order too.

 

You've moved the goal posts from "have done near career norms" from May 1st to "will perform..."

[moonslav59]

The whole idea of picking a single date for when the impact of the lackadaisical spring wore off is silly. Every pitcher got into the groove on his own schedule and the improvements weren’t denoted by a singular point. Some of them still might have occasional momentary lapses...

 

...and as Max pointed out, some had close to or more ST'ing IP'd than last year.

 

No matter what date you chose,other than Price, our starters are doing worse than 2018, worse than 2016-2018 combined and have been responsible for more Sox losses than the pen. It's not even close.

 

That is not to say we don't need pen help. I still think a pen upgrade is our #1 priority this summer.

[moonslav59]

So how do we explain the excellent seasons of Devers, Bogey and Vazquez? How do we explain the improvement in Devers's defense?

 

Must be WTF Cora.

[illinoisredsox]

You've moved the goal posts from "have done near career norms" from May 1st to "will perform..."

 

Moon, he’s lawyering you. No matter what you say, he will not budge. You’ve both made your points, and while the back and forth was interesting for a while ...

[jung]

Regardless of the failings in the rotation, I don't think the Sox moving at all to bring in another starter is realistic. Henry is sending "no more money" signals all over the place. Geezus a female dog in heat sends out less scent and signaling that she is prime. Everybody other than Erod is going down around the big three in the rotation and the big three have been babied! So forget more rotation help. Not going to happen.

 

The pen is ridiculous though and not having ANYBODY that can close is laughable. Getting an actual Closer even one that is past his prime would at least give this team a shot. That would seem doable based on the assets the team has...either buy one or get one for a smattering of going nowhere minor leaguers....WHATEVER!

 

Even if Nate makes it back to the pen I don't see him closing.

[moonslav59]

Moon, he’s lawyering you. No matter what you say, he will not budge. You’ve both made your points, and while the back and forth was interesting for a while ...

 

Good point.

 

Other than Price, our starters are a roulette wheel.

 

Yes, ERod gets one or two more outs per start than before, but he had his best year in 2018. 2019 is not even close.

 

Yes, Sale has looked better than his putrid early season starts, but he is far away from his dominant self.

 

Porcello is a total mess with a few gems sprinkled into all the chaos.

 

Our 5th starter have somehow managed to have a winning record in their starts, but they have been a joke.

 

Updated after yesterday's game:

 

Updated tally after 82 games:

 

By Wins and Losses Responsibility Game by Game:

Starters 17-23 (-6)

Relievers 27-16 (+11)

 

Alternative Pitcher Scoring System:

 

+ 2 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 5 or more innings, 2.00 for 4 or less innings, 1.00 for 3 or less innings or 0.00 for 2 or less innings

 

+1 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 4.2 or less innings.

 

0 for any game where their ERA is between 3.01 and 4.50.

 

-1 for any game where their ERA is between 4.51 and 6.00.

 

-2 for any game over 6.01

 

1. L 12-4 Sale 7/3- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R -2)

2. W 7-6 Eovaldi 6/5- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2)

3. L 6-5 ERod 5/4.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-2/R+2)

4. L 10-8 Porcello 4/2.2- Pen 1/5.1 (S-2/R+2)

5. L 6-0 Price 4/6- Pen 2/2 (S-2/R-2)

6. L 1-0 Sale 1/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

7. W 6-3 Eovaldi 3/5- Pen 0/4 (S-1/R+2)

8. L 7-3 ERod 6/3.2- Pen 1/4.1 (S-2/R +2)

9. L 15-8 Porcello 7/4.2- Pen 8/3.1 (S-2/R-2)

10. W 5-4 Price 4/6- Pen 1/3 (S-1/R+1)

Sub Total: SP -14/ RP +7

 

11. W 1-0 Velaz 0/3- Pen 0/6 (S+2/R+2)

12. L 7-5 Sale 5/4- Pen 2/5 (S-2/R+2)

13. W 7-6 Eovaldi 5/5- Pen 1/4 (S-2/R+2)

14. W 6-4 ERod 2/6.2- Pen 2/2.1 (S+2/-2)

15. L 9-5 Porcello 3/4- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R-2)

16. W 4-0 Price 0/7- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

17. L 8-1 Velaz 1/3- Pen 7/6 (S+1*/R-2)

18. L 8-0 Sale 4/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2)

19. L 5-3 Eovaldi 0/6- Pen 4/2 (S+2/R-2)

20. W 6-4 ERod 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-1/R+2)

Sub Total: SP +0/ RP +0

 

21. W 6-5 Porcello 2/5.2- Pen 3/3.1 (S+0/R-2)

22. W 4-3 Price 2/5- Pen 1/6 (S+2/R+2)

23. L 7-4 Sale 2/5- Pen 5/4 (S+2/R-2)

24. L 4-2 Velaz 3/3.1- Pen 1/5.9 (S-2/R+2)

25. W 11-4 ERod 1/6- Pen 3/3 (S+2/R-2)

26. W 7-2 Porcello 3/6- Pen 0/3 (S+0/R+2)

27. L 2-1 Price 2/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/S+2)

28. L 5-2 Sale 2/7(2 unearned)- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0)

29. W 9-4 ERod 4/4.2- Pen 0/4.1 (S-2/R+2)

30. W 5-1 Porcello 0/8- Pen 1/1 (S+2/R-2)

Sub Total: SP +8/ RP +2

 

31. W 7-3 Velaz 1/2- Pen 2/7 (S-2/R+2)

32. L 6-4 Price 3/6- Pen 2/2.1 (1 unearned) (S+0/R-2)

33. W 6-1 Sale 0/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)

34. W 15-2 ERod 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)

35. W 9-2 Porcello 2/6- Pen 0/3(S+2/R+2)

36. L 4-1 Smith 4/3.1- Pen 0/4.2 (S-2/R+2)

37. W 8-5 Velaz 2/3- Pen 3/7 (S-2/R+0)

38. W 2-1 Sale 1/8- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)

39. W 14-1 ERod 0/7- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0)

40. W 9-5 Porcello 4/6.2- Pen 1/2.2 (S-1/R+0)

Sub Total: SP+7/RP +8

 

41. W 11-2 Velz 2/5- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)

42. L 5-4 Sale 2/7- Pen 3/4 (S+2/R-2)

43. W 6-5 ERod 5/6- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2)

44. L 3-1 Porcello 2/7 - Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

45. L 7-3 Velaz 5/0.1 -Pen 2/8.2 (S-2/R+2)

46. W 4-3 Sale 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S+0/R+2)

47. W 12-2 Price 0/5 (2 unearned)- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)

48. L 10-3 ERod 6/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2)

49. W 6-5 Porcello 1/6- Pen 4/7 (S+2/R+0)

50. W 8-2 Weber 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)

Sub Total: SP +6/ RP +9

 

51. L 4-3 Sale 2/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

52. L 4-3 Price 0/0.2- Pen 4/7.1 (S+0*/R+1)

53. W 4-1 ERod 1/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/R+2)

54. W 12-5 Porcello 3/6.2 2 unearned- Pen 0/2.1 (S+1/R+2)

55. L 7-5 Price 0/6- Pen 7/3 (S+2/R-2)

56. L 14-9 Weber 7/4- Pen 7/5(S-2/R-2)

57. L 4-1 Sale 4/6- Pen 0/2 (S+0/R+2)

58. L 5-3 Porcello 5/4.2- Pen 0/3.1 (S-2/R+2)

59. W 8-5 Price 2/6.1- Pen 3/2.2 (S+2/R-2)

60: W8-3 KCR: ERod 2/5.2 2/ RP 1/3.1 1 (S+2/R+1)

Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +6

 

61: W 8-0 KCR: Sale 0/9.0 (S+3**)

62: W 7-5 KCR: Weber 2/1.1- Pen: 3/7.2 IP 3 (S-2/R+1)

63: L 5-1 TBR: Porcello 4/6 IP- Pen 1/3.0 (S+0/R+1)

64: L 9-2 TBR: Josh Smith 4/4.0 IP- Pen 4/5.0 IP (S-2/R-2)

65: W 5-1 TBR: Price 1/6.0 IP-Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2)

66: L 6-1 TBR: ERod 4/5.2- Pen 2/4.1 (S-2/R+0)

67: L 4-3 TEX: Sale 0/7.0- Pen 3/4.0 (S+2/R-2)

68: L 9-5 TEX: DHerm 3/3- Pen 5/6.0 (S-2/R-2)

69: W 4-3 TEX: Porcello 2/6.2-Pen 0/2.1 (S+2/R+2)

70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 6/1.1- Pen 0/7.9 (S-2/R+3**)

Sub Total: SP -1/ RP +3

 

71: W 13-2 BAL: ERod 1/7- Pen 1/2.0 (S+2/R+0)

72: W 7-2 BAL: Sale 2/6.0- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2)

73: W 8-6 BAL in 10: Johnson 1/3.0 IP- Pen 3/7.0 (S+1/R+1)

74: W 2-0 MN: Porcell 0/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2)

75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 1/5.0- Pen 3/11.1 (S+2/R+2)

76: W 9-4 MN: ERod 4/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+0/R+2)

77. W 7-5 TOR: Sale 3/5.0- (1 unearned)/ Pen 1/5.0 (S+0/R+2)

78: L 8-7 TOR: Johnson 0/5.0- Pen 7/4.0 (S+2/R-3**)

79: L 6-1 TOR: Porcello 5/6.0- Pen 1/3.0 (S-2/R+1)

80: W6-5 CWS: ERod 5/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S-2/R+2)

Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +11

 

81: W6-3 CWS: Price 2/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2)

82: L 8-7 CWS: Sale 5/6.0-Pen 3/3.0 (S-2/R-2)

83: L 17-13 NYY: Porcello 6/0.1- Pen 11/8.2 (S-2/R-2)

84: L 12-8 NYY: ERod 2/5.1-Pen 9/3.2 (S+2/R-2)

85: W 10-6 TOR: Price 2/6.0- Pen 4/3 (S+2/R-2)

 

The pen has never been minus in any 10 game segment. The season totals after 79 games:

 

SP +22

 

RP +40

[jung]

If Erod could only EVER throw three pitches in one stint, he would be awesome. Whatever success he has had in 2018-2019 is totally predicated on his Change passing his Slider like it was standing still. I can dream about ERod being able to throw a Slider and Change and a FB in one starting stint till hell freezes over. He has yet to be able to show that he can in any year that I can remember. It was always FB, a bucket of Sliders and a couple Changes mixed in and now its always FB, a bucket of Changes and a couple Sliders mixed in.

 

That said, Erod is doing part of this with mirrors. LH hitters simply have not recognized that its a Change that he is throwing just off the plate inside. They think it is going to leak back over the inside corner and it doesn't. Once LH hitters catch on to how many Changes he is throwing to them, not sure what will happen with that.

Edited July 3, 2019 by jung

[jacksonianmarch]

ERod and Beni seem like the classic change of scenery guys, IMO. I could see ERod leaving in FA or in a deal and becoming an absolute beast.

[a700hitter]

Yes, Max, I think it's entirely possible that Restgate has been overplayed just a wee bit.

 

The starters pitched fewer innings than normal, but they weren't entirely inactive by any means.

 

One can also dig up plenty of examples of pitchers who have had a small number of innings pitched in spring or zero innings pitched in spring and suffered no apparent ill effects.

 

The ultimate explanation might be just that there are a lot of variances and randomness in baseball that no one has ever been able to explain.

Or the explanation could be that Max never finds fault with any Red Sox manager even when they have made a clear and obvious mistake.

[a700hitter]

You've moved the goal posts from "have done near career norms" from May 1st to "will perform..."

Not at all. I said that they are and will continue to perform at career norms.

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not just about the IP total. It’s also about how they’re spaced.

 

If you were training for a marathon, would you run one mile course 26 times or one 26 mile course?

 

There’s an expected ramp up sequence that Cora appears to have avoided...

 

Well, I think you're a facts and numbers guy like me. So what, exactly, is the evidence that Porcello's ramp-up this year was significantly different than last year's?

[notin]

Well, I think you're a facts and numbers guy like me. So what, exactly, is the evidence that Porcello's ramp-up this year was significantly different than last year's?

 

Well, one year ago today his ERA was 3.57...

[Bellhorn04]

Well, one year ago today his ERA was 3.57...

 

Correlation something something...

[notin]

Correlation something something...

 

The biggest difference between this year’s Porcello and last year’s is the fewer K/9 and the higher percentage of contact on pitches out of the zone. Hitters are swinging at only a slightly higher percentage of pitches out of the zone, but hitting more. And his BABIPA is actually higher despite this, meaning his “chase” offerings are missing his spots and are slightly more hittable. The likely cause is slightly less action on the 2-seamer away to RHH. Perfecting the release and velocity of a 2-seamer to get the right break is tricky. So it’s possible he was not given adequate opportunities or he simply cannot repeat his motions properly...

[Bellhorn04]

Perfecting the release and velocity of a 2-seamer to get the right break is tricky. So it’s possible he was not given adequate opportunities or he simply cannot repeat his motions properly...

 

"Not given adequate opportunities", now that's a subtle new way of referencing Restgate LOL.

[a700hitter]

"Not given adequate opportunities", now that's a subtle new way of referencing Restgate LOL.

The mistake will never be publicly acknowledged in a statement by the Red Sox organization, but it will be acknowledged in deed by ramping up the pitchers next spring training. I'll guarantee you that.