A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[moonslav59]

Interesting, we have the same record as the Cubs who are 3.5 up in the NL wild card race,

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS since May 20th:

 

1.024 Devers

1.011 Bogaerts

1.002 Martinez

 

 

.894 Holt

.885 Betts

.859 JBJ

.830 Benintendi

 

.785 Hernandez

.775 Travis

.756 Vazquez

.751 Moreland

 

.693 Chavis

 

.525 Leon

 

[moonslav59]

ERA- Since May 20th

 

46 Workman

 

64 DHern

65 Taylor

69 Walden

 

82 ERod

83 Brasier

84 Hembree

89 Brewer

90 Barnes

90 Weber

90 Price

91 Sale

 

112 Porcello

116 Smith

121 Velazquez

129 Eovaldi

130 Cashner

142 Johnson

[moonslav59]

2019 L-R Splits

 

v RHPs

1.012 Devers

.993 Bogey

.921 Betts

.883 Moreland

.880 Holt

.847 Martinez

.819 Beni

.789 Marco

.774 Chavis

.772 JBJ

.583 Travis

.537 Leon

 

v LHPs

1.360 Martinez (SICK!)

.890 Vaz

.868 Travis (next year's platoon?)

.862 Bogey

.824 Devers

.811 Beni

.807 Betts

.775 Marco

.742 Chavis

.624 JBJ

.619 Holt

.557 Leon

.469 Moreland

 

Home & Away

 

Home

1.055 Bogey

.965 Devers

.954 Betts

.951 JD

.936 Travis

.913 Holt

(How do we lose so much at home?)

 

.882 Beni

.855 Moreland

.812 Vaz

.806 JBJ

.795 Chavis

 

.668 Marco

.656 Leon

 

 

Away

.989 JD

.946 Devers

.888 Marco

.864 Bogey

.825 Betts

.797 Moreland

.784 Holt

.778 Vaz

.753 Beni

.727 Chavis

.650 JBJ

.528 Travis

.449 Leon

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

OPS by Slot (PAs by topplayers)

 

1. 833 (Betts 413, Beni 208)

2. 939 (Devers 266, Betts 215, Beni 118)

3. 918 (Bogey 284, JD 190, Moreland 83)

4. 969 (JD 367, Bogey 97, Devers 85)

5. 809 (Bogey 182, Beni 152, Devers 85)

6. 807 (Vaz 123, Chavis 111, Devers 87, Holt 80)

7. 723 (Chavis 113, Vaz 105, JBJ 97, Moreland 64)

8. 752 (JBJ 214, Chavis 76, Vaz 61, Holt 51, Nunez 51)

9. 642 (JBJ 143, Leon 124, Vaz 89, Marco 42)

 

[dgalehouse]

Verlander has a no hitter through eight innings. But the Astros haven't scored either .

[dgalehouse]

Houston got two runs . Going to the bottom of the ninth now .

[dgalehouse]

Verlander has a no hitter through eight innings. But the Astros haven't scored either .

 

Verlander no hitter . 14 K's. Just one base runner. Third of career .

[Tedballgame]

Losing last night was a killer. The bullpen blows another one. It was a microcosm of the season.

[moonslav59]

Losing last night was a killer. The bullpen blows another one. It was a microcosm of the season.

 

The pen pitched the whole game, so it's hard to call it a pen blown game.

[dgalehouse]

The pen pitched the whole game, so it's hard to call it a pen blown game.

 

When you are leading in the eighth and the setup man blows it , I think it is fair to call it a blown pen game .

[notin]

When you are leading in the eighth and the setup man blows it , I think it is fair to call it a blown pen game .

 

I agree to an extent. But if you have a starter go 5 or 6 IP and then count on 3 or 4 IP from the pen, it does give them a better chance to succeed...

[dgalehouse]

I agree to an extent. But if you have a starter go 5 or 6 IP and then count on 3 or 4 IP from the pen, it does give them a better chance to succeed...

 

Seemed kind of odd . Taylor went one inning . Marcus went one . Then Johnson came in and went four . Why didn't Johnson just start the game ? What was the reasoning ? Maybe just to say we used an opener ?

[a700hitter]

Seemed kind of odd . Taylor went one inning . Marcus went one . Then Johnson came in and went four . Why didn't Johnson just start the game ? What was the reasoning ? Maybe just to say we used an opener ?

Copycat managing. It is as simple as that.

[moonslav59]

When you are leading in the eighth and the setup man blows it , I think it is fair to call it a blown pen game .

 

Yes.

 

The pen was the one who gave us the lead in the 8th, so there's that, too.

 

So, did the pen win today's game, or do you give it to Price?

[moonslav59]

Seemed kind of odd . Taylor went one inning . Marcus went one . Then Johnson came in and went four . Why didn't Johnson just start the game ? What was the reasoning ? Maybe just to say we used an opener ?

 

Maybe because Taylor matched up better with the top 3 batters in the line-up.

[Nick]

Maybe because Taylor matched up better with the top 3 batters in the line-up.

 

Obviously the original OP hasn't looked at Johnson's record as a starter lately. Look it up.

[dgalehouse]

Obviously the original OP hasn't looked at Johnson's record as a starter lately. Look it up.

 

Are you saying that Johnson is no good as a starter , but it's okay for him to start the third inning and pitch through the sixth inning , facing the entire Angel's lineup in that time ? Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the difference there .

[jung]

There is a wave of junkers making some headway in MLB of late. No matter how much Manfred tries to manipulate this game one aspect of it that remains is that the game itself tries to self-correct.

 

Johnson simply cannot get rolling in a stint and it does not appear to matter whether he is trying to get rolling with an appearance that begins in the 3rd inning or the 1st inning. Once he gets rolling he is good for another 2-3 innings anyway before he starts to struggle again if left out there for a 4th inning. There is some logic to that because if you really cannot throw heat to get through early troubles the crap you are throwing up there is going to get tagged if you can't locate it. As to how a starter gets through a 5th inning, they are all struggling with that these days with exception of the very best of them. That problem is not specific to BJ.

 

So BJ's early issues would appear to be a pretty specific problem for BJ and one that is probably tied up in taking too long to find his release point and arm angle early in stints. Seems to me something that a coach could work on with him.

[Nick]

Are you saying that Johnson is no good as a starter , but it's okay for him to start the third inning and pitch through the sixth inning , facing the entire Angel's lineup in that time ? Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the difference there .

 

His previous 5 starts.

 

date IP H R ER BB

8/03 3.0 8 3 3 0

8/09 2.2 2 3 3 2

8/14 2.2 3 1 0 2

8/20 3.2 6 3 3 2

8/25 3.0 4 3 3 3

 

If you think this is a good stat line, then you know nothing about baseball.

 

Did you ever think that Johnson came in to pitch as long as he can? Good for him that he went 3 innings. But they were not going to start him......They were not going to let him put the team behind right away........are you f***ing serious?

[Bellhorn04]

His previous 5 starts.

 

date IP H R ER BB

8/03 3.0 8 3 3 0

8/09 2.2 2 3 3 2

8/14 2.2 3 1 0 2

8/20 3.2 6 3 3 2

8/25 3.0 4 3 3 3

 

If you think this is a good stat line, then you know nothing about baseball.

 

Did you ever think that Johnson came in to pitch as long as he can? Good for him that he went 3 innings. But they were not going to start him......are you f***ing serious?

 

Denny's question, though, is what's the difference between starting him and having him pitch innings 3 through 6.

[notin]

Are you saying that Johnson is no good as a starter , but it's okay for him to start the third inning and pitch through the sixth inning , facing the entire Angel's lineup in that time ? Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the difference there .

 

It's what happens when you look at small sample sizes...

[notin]

Obviously the original OP hasn't looked at Johnson's record as a starter lately. Look it up.

 

 

 

Johnson has a 5.09 ERA as a starter this year, but a 9.90 ERA as a reliever (Ok that number does include last night's game).

 

Last year, Johnson had a 4.15 ERA as a starter and a 4.19 ERA as a reliever...

[Bellhorn04]

It's what happens when you look at small sample sizes...

 

You're missing Denny's question too. He's not saying Johnson's good.

[notin]

You're missing Denny's question too. He's not saying Johnson's good.

 

No but I am saying Nick's conclusion is based on limited data and therefore should be in question...

[S5Dewey]

Johnson continues to remind me of someone...who is it?.... ....someone who had problems in past years with durability.... and control... got a lot of criticism for it.... some wanted him DFA'd even!....

 

It's coming to me now... Hispanic name... Hmmm... yes... Rodriguez. That's it!

[illinoisredsox]

Johnson continues to remind me of someone...who is it?.... ....someone who had problems in past years with durability.... and control... got a lot of criticism for it.... some wanted him DFA'd even!....

 

It's coming to me now... Hispanic name... Hmmm... yes... Rodriguez. That's it!

 

Beyond both being southpaws, I don’t see it. ERod always had stuff, he had to harness it (and still does to some extent). He was also having those issues at what, 23-25 yo. Johnson is 28 and has no where near ERod’s physical gifts.

[notin]

Johnson continues to remind me of someone...who is it?.... ....someone who had problems in past years with durability.... and control... got a lot of criticism for it.... some wanted him DFA'd even!....

 

It's coming to me now... Hispanic name... Hmmm... yes... Rodriguez. That's it!

 

Yeah...ummmm... no. Age matters...

[Bellhorn04]

Beyond both being southpaws, I don’t see it. ERod always had stuff, he had to harness it (and still does to some extent). He was also having those issues at what, 23-25 yo. Johnson is 28 and has no where near ERod’s physical gifts.

 

Johnson's a bit of a soft tosser, isn't he? So he has to hit his spots on the button or he will be hurt.

[S5Dewey]

Beyond both being southpaws, I don’t see it. ERod always had stuff, he had to harness it (and still does to some extent). He was also having those issues at what, 23-25 yo. Johnson is 28 and has no where near ERod’s physical gifts.

 

Age mattters and it's not realistic to think that we're going to get as many year from Johnson as we do from Erod. We only need a year or two out of Johnson and our window will be closed anyway. Johnson isn't the second coming of Sandy Koufax but he can be enough of a one-year stopgap to help in 2020, and he does have known potential.

 

He's always had the pitches. His problem in the past was between his ears. In that regard he reminds me of Grinke. Grinke almost washed out of baseball because of his anxiety issues but once he got those issues under control he became a ML pitcher.

 

Now, before someone reminds me that Johnson doesn't have Grinke's stuff - I know that. But he's not going to command Grinke's salary either. You get what you pay for and at the ML minimum he's good enough to be a #5 or 6. Or beyond.