The Pen

[Kimmi]

People saying that the bullpen is a strength is a twist on the old self fulfilling prophecy. They predicted it would be a strength, they want it to be a strength and so they believe that it actually is a strength. But it simply is not true . Our pen has 16 saves and 14 blown saves . The Yankee's has 24 saves and 10 blown saves . The Yankees pen also has 11 more " holds." The difference in the bullpens is one of the main reasons we trail New York by 6 1/2 games .

 

I may be wrong, but I'm not sure that anyone predicted that our pen would be a strength, but rather that it would not be a weakness, that it would be fine. I don't think it's necessarily been a strength, but I think it's been a lot better than you give it credit for.

 

Personally, I think the 'self fulfilling prophecy', which I like to refer to as confirmation bias, is working more the other way. Some people were so sure that our pen would be our weakness that every bad outing by the pen sticks out sorely, and despite the problems that we've had with our starting rotation and our offense, they are blaming the current state of the Sox on the pen.

 

Now, it's quite possible that from this point forward, our pen will be our weakness. The rotation and the offense, which were supposed to be great strengths, seem to be performing a little more consistently. But to date, the pen is still reason #3 behind the rotation and the offense for why the Sox are 6 1/2 games behind the Yankees.

[Kimmi]

Teams have winning streaks and losing streaks during a typical season . They are all incorporated into the overall record . I am well aware of all the nuances of ERA , saves and blown saves . They apply the same to all teams . I would definitely say that our starting rotation is better than the Yankee's rotation. The difference is the bullpens . And that will continue to be a concern every time we play a close game with them .

 

And yet, the Yankees rotation has a W-L record of 28-18 (.609) and an ERA of 3.99, while the Red Sox starters have a W-L record of 22-26 (.458) and an ERA of 4.48.

 

There's your 7 game difference right there.

[Kimmi]

Just because something did or didn’t work doesn’t mean the move cannot be questioned. It was a questionable move. There are articles about that specific incident outside of our forum....what’s not to get?

 

You have every right to question it. It was a curious move.

 

That said, just because something did or did not work does not mean that it was the wrong or the right move.

[vegasbob]

Won-Lost records FWIW

 

Starters 22-26

Relievers 19-9

 

A meaningful stat since it is the only one that has a determination on post season play. It may indirectly say something else about starters vs. Relievers : Starters lose when they surrender more runs than the offense generates , and the offense never recovers the deficit . Relievers win when they are pitching during a game where the starter goes less than 5, or a tie game is salvaged for a win, or when the offense overcomes a deficit left by the starter ( or prior reliever).

If I knew nothing (often the case) other than the W-L record, I would be somewhat suspect of the offenses ability to score before the 5th inning, and that the offense can usually score on the opponents bullpen. Finally, once the Sox are ahead, the pen "wins" game at a .678 clip. Sound familiar ? .678 x 162=110 wins, shades of 2018's win total. Not truly relevant but interesting coincidence.

Edited June 20, 2019 by vegasbob

[TylerD]

It's simple, really. A lot of fans truly believe they have sharper baseball minds than the manager and feel entitled to criticize every move they don't understand or don't agree with.

 

These people are called idiots. It's one thing to give an opinion and I do of my A LOT. It's another when there are fans that genuinely think they are smarter than the Manager. I would love to see some of these guys manage an MLB team lol.

[vegasbob]

I will make one comment using the Velazquez 9th inning from Tuesday night's epic 17 innings. Several have complimented Hector for his 4 innings of effective work after the Kepler leadoff HR. Hector's one and ONLY job was to get 3 outs before the Twins scored. No matter what happened afterwards, he failed and it eventually resulted in long drawn out loss, achieving nothing but adding more innings to the rest of the Pen, and putting himself back on the IL .

 

A moral victory ? Try getting to the playoffs on moral victories. There will be more blown saves, and L's from the BP over the course of the season. That's baseball. But it is not necessarily a noteworthy achievement.

[vegasbob]

These people are called idiots. It's one thing to give an opinion and I do of my A LOT. It's another when there are fans that genuinely think they are smarter than the Manager. I would love to see some of these guys manage an MLB team lol.

 

Pretty much agree with you guys. I doubt too many have a real appreciation for the number of moving parts and personalities involved in making short term decisions directly affecting the outcome in a W or L, day after day for about 9 months a year.

[dgalehouse]

And yet, the Yankees rotation has a W-L record of 28-18 (.609) and an ERA of 3.99, while the Red Sox starters have a W-L record of 22-26 (.458) and an ERA of 4.48.

 

There's your 7 game difference right there.

Kimmi , There are so many different things that factor in that it is tough to form any conclusion. A starter's wins can often be dependent on the reliever's holds and saves . And their losses can often depend on the opposition bullpen's holds and saves . In the end , it all kind of works together. It is pretty much impossible to prove anything. But we all have our own opinions. And that's okay .

[Slasher9]

You have every right to question it. It was a curious move.

 

That said, just because something did or did not work does not mean that it was the wrong or the right move.

 

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

I may be wrong, but I'm not sure that anyone predicted that our pen would be a strength, but rather that it would not be a weakness, that it would be fine. I don't think it's necessarily been a strength, but I think it's been a lot better than you give it credit for.

 

Personally, I think the 'self fulfilling prophecy', which I like to refer to as confirmation bias, is working more the other way. Some people were so sure that our pen would be our weakness that every bad outing by the pen sticks out sorely, and despite the problems that we've had with our starting rotation and our offense, they are blaming the current state of the Sox on the pen.

 

Now, it's quite possible that from this point forward, our pen will be our weakness. The rotation and the offense, which were supposed to be great strengths, seem to be performing a little more consistently. But to date, the pen is still reason #3 behind the rotation and the offense for why the Sox are 6 1/2 games behind the Yankees.

 

What constitutes something being called a "strength?"

 

Is it just being above average or above the mean? Is being top 10 out of 30 teams?

 

Our pen ranks top 10 in just about every meaningful measure. In several important categories we are top 3 or 4. (We're #1 in K/9 rate.)

 

We are not top 10 in Save %. We rank 26th at 53%. However, our pen is 2nd in inherited runner scoring % at 25%, and we are 7th in Holds.

 

 

If the question is, "Has our pen been a top 10 pen, so far this year?" I'd answer yes. To me, that makes it a "strength" to date.

 

Going forward, I have a different opinion. I think our pen needs a solid addition or two, and the sooner the better, especially if Hembree is not coming back.

 

If Eovaldi is not coming back, we could use a solid addition there as well.

 

Saves + Holds

 

75 NYY (10 BS)

69 TBR (9 BS)

58 BOS (16 BS)

 

Edited June 21, 2019 by moonslav59

[devildavid]

The bullpen is fine and had nothing to do with where the team now finds itself.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Much as we all dislike the Yankems, the truth is with their healthy line-up and their BP, they will not be caught by us this year. We definitely should end up as the #1 wild card.

[moonslav59]

Kimmi , There are so many different things that factor in that it is tough to form any conclusion. A starter's wins can often be dependent on the reliever's holds and saves . And their losses can often depend on the opposition bullpen's holds and saves . In the end , it all kind of works together. It is pretty much impossible to prove anything. But we all have our own opinions. And that's okay .

 

Did you look at mt my game by game breakdown of our starters vs our pen?

 

Are there any games you disagree with my assignment of who gets the credit or blame?

 

I'm not saying my study was perfect, but the disparity is so massive, it's hard for me to see how I could have been that wrong-- enough to swing it the other way.

[moonslav59]

The bullpen is fine and had nothing to do with where the team now finds itself.

 

I'd say it "had been" fine. I'm not sure if is going forward.

[devildavid]

I'd say it "had been" fine. I'm not sure if is going forward.

 

It will be if the starters can perform up to the level most of them did last season. The strength of this team is starting pitching.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Much as we all dislike the Yankems, the truth is with their healthy line-up and their BP, they will not be caught by us this year. We definitely should end up as the #1 wild card.

 

Of course, injuries could make both my predictions wrong.

[moonslav59]

It will be if the starters can perform up to the level most of them did last season. The strength of this team is starting pitching.

 

I agree, and if Eovaldi comes back, and our starters keep going deeper in games, that alone can take a lot of stress off the pen.

 

Move Eovaldi to the pen for the playoffs.

 

I'd still like to see us get a solid RP'er this summer.

 

Our 11th-13th pitcher on the roster has killed us this year:

 

ERA by "6th & higher" Starters

As SP'er only (Games Started/IP):

6.41 Velazquez (7/19.2)

7.94 R Weber (3/11.1)

9.82 J Smith (2/7.1)

3.00 Johnson (1/3.0)

9.00 D Hern (1/3.0)

 

"6th & higher" RPers (list in order of most IP)

As RP'er (IP/WHIP)

4.22 Brewer (32/1.72)

4.74 Velazquez (19/1.37

7.71 Thornburg (19/1.66)

0.90 Shawaryn (10/0.90)

5.79 Lakins (9/1.71)

6.48 J Taylor (8/1.56)

1.13 R Weber (8/1.13)

2.57 J Smith (7/1.29)

13.50 Johnson (6/2.83)

15.75 Poyner (4/3.26)

12.00 E Ram(3/1.67)

0.00 D Hern (2/2.14)

9.00 Nunez (1/1.00)

 

These numbers are horrendous.

 

Other than Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Eovaldi, Barnes, Workman, Walden, Brasier & Hembree, we have sucked badly.

 

Overall numbers of those not listed in the top 10 (if you discount Brewer, it is even worse):

 

(Only Velazquez & Brewer are in our top 10 in IP.)

 

IP Pitcher ERA

39 Velazquez 5.59

32 Brewer 4.22

19 R Weber 5.12

19 Thornburg 7.71

14 J Smith 6.28

10 Shawaryn 0.90

9 Lakins 5.79

9 Johnson 10.00

8 J Taylor 6.48

5 DHern 5.06

4 Poyner 15.75

3 ERam 12.00

1 Nunez 9.00

 

If we could pick up a solid RP'er, we could move everyone down a notch and drop some of these guys right off the play list.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OH FOY]

Thornburg getting murdered down at Pawtucket. Every game he got into since he was sent there.

[moonslav59]

Thornburg getting murdered down at Pawtucket. Every game he got into since he was sent there.

 

Time to cut ties.

 

We could have used the cap space.

[Bellhorn04]

Time to cut ties.

 

We could have used the cap space.

 

Meh. It was only 1.75 million, and there is no real cap, just higher tax brackets.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi , There are so many different things that factor in that it is tough to form any conclusion. A starter's wins can often be dependent on the reliever's holds and saves . And their losses can often depend on the opposition bullpen's holds and saves . In the end , it all kind of works together. It is pretty much impossible to prove anything. But we all have our own opinions. And that's okay .

 

I do not disagree with this post.

 

Looking at W-L records of the starters without considering other factors is a pretty weak way to assess what has happened on the field. But I also think that looking at save % without considering other factors is also a pretty weak way to assess what has happened on the field.

[kenmeister]

Time to cut ties.

 

We could have used the cap space.

 

Tyler Thornburg and Blake Swihart were given enough chances. I don't feel bad here.

[Kimmi]

What constitutes something being called a "strength?"

 

Is it just being above average or above the mean? Is being top 10 out of 30 teams?

 

Our pen ranks top 10 in just about every meaningful measure. In several important categories we are top 3 or 4. (We're #1 in K/9 rate.)

 

We are not top 10 in Save %. We rank 26th at 53%. However, our pen is 2nd in inherited runner scoring % at 25%, and we are 7th in Holds.

 

 

If the question is, "Has our pen been a top 10 pen, so far this year?" I'd answer yes. To me, that makes it a "strength" to date.

 

Going forward, I have a different opinion. I think our pen needs a solid addition or two, and the sooner the better, especially if Hembree is not coming back.

 

If Eovaldi is not coming back, we could use a solid addition there as well.

 

Saves + Holds

 

75 NYY (10 BS)

69 TBR (9 BS)

58 BOS (16 BS)

 

 

Fair point about 'strength' being a subjective term. The pen has been called upon to pitch more than expected. All things considered, the pen has been very good and is far from being a weakness. I agree that we need a pen reinforcement or two, but I think just about every contending team finds itself in the same situation midseason.

[Kimmi]

The bullpen is fine and had nothing to do with where the team now finds itself.

 

It will be if the starters can perform up to the level most of them did last season. The strength of this team is starting pitching.

 

^This.

[Kimmi]

Much as we all dislike the Yankems, the truth is with their healthy line-up and their BP, they will not be caught by us this year. We definitely should end up as the #1 wild card.

 

Seven words for you.

 

Back to back to back to back.

[jacksonianmarch]

Seven words for you.

 

Back to back to back to back.

 

Yes, playoff appearances. You’re not better than the Yanks this year.

[Kimmi]

Yes, playoff appearances. You’re not better than the Yanks this year.

 

According to you, we weren't better than the Yanks last year, until we were.

[FredLynn]

Yes, playoff appearances. You’re not better than the Yanks this year.

 

Nope. We are exactly as good as our record says we are at this point in the season. That said, if we get into the playoffs its a new season. Assuming both teams are healthy its 50/50 who would win a playoff series between the two teams. I think our SP is better; we have Sale and Eovaldi is a Yankee killer. How incredibly disappointing it would be for Yankee fans all over the world if the Red Sox eliminated the Yankees again this year. Given our success last year and our domination of the ALE three years running I think we are playing with house money this year.

[Maxbialystock]

Of course, injuries could make both my predictions wrong.

 

Yes, but you said what I've been thinking lately--Sox are a good bet for the postseason, but not overtaking the Yankees.

[S5Dewey]

Nope. We are exactly as good as our record says we are at this point in the season. That said, if we get into the playoffs its a new season. Assuming both teams are healthy its 50/50 who would win a playoff series between the two teams. I think our SP is better; we have Sale and Eovaldi is a Yankee killer. How incredibly disappointing it would be for Yankee fans all over the world if the Red Sox eliminated the Yankees again this year. Given our success last year and our domination of the ALE three years running I think we are playing with house money this year.

 

This is one of those posts that needs a "Like" button.